Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Boys NXN Projections

Note that these scores are derived including a greater variety of factors than my past NXN projections have normally included… I have factored in how well these teams have done at NXN over the past five years, the best team race they’ve had all year, average team race this year, and how well they ran as a team at their NXN Regional and State meet, in addition to my usual analysis of how good the individuals combine over the course of the season and championship season to make up their scoring five. Because of all those factors being included, I’ll also include in parenthesis the score with only my standard factors included in previous years.

 

Also note that I am going to be posting team and individual predictions separate from these projections (for those unsure of the difference I mean, predictions involve more subjective analysis while these projections are all as objective as I can make them and give no consideration to any who-beat-who for individuals or considering more carefully what teams might run better than this would suggest for whatever reason).

 

In the individual list, note that team runners are bold and individual qualifiers have an asterisk after their rating. And also note that Kai Wilmot is included, though at a lower level than he’s been all year because he hasn’t run a race since October 6, however at that time he was good enough to win this meet so it will be interesting to see just how competitive he will be in his first race back.

 

Boys Teams –

1.       145.19 American Fork UT (125)

2.       157.15 Southlake Carroll TX (130)

3.       181.34 North Central WA (205)

4.       188.77 Arcadia CA (185)

5.       189.86 Christian Brothers NJ (150)

6.       220.76 York IL (200)

7.       269.20 Davis UT (240)

8.       271.86 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (320)

9.       310.13 West Chester Henderson PA (320)

10.   314.26 Cardinal O'Hara PA (300)

11.   321.98 Carmel IN (340)

12.   333.12 Carlsbad CA (300)

13.   335.75 St. Xavier KY (330)

14.   337.15 The Woodlands TX (355)

15.   341.26 Summit OR (295)

16.   346.88 Blacksburg VA (345)

17.   352.31 Kamiakin WA (395)

18.   355.21 Bismarck ND (345)

19.   361.22 Saratoga NY (390)

20.   364.58 Dowling Catholic IA (390)

21.   367.22 Cincinnati St. Xavier OH (370)

22.   371.34 California CA (405)

 

Top 50 Boys Individuals:

1.       Nick Ryan - 12 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 200.5

2.       Joe Hardy - 11 - Seattle Prep WA - 200.2*

3.       Luis Martinez - 12 - Cleveland NM - 197.7*

4.       Jake Leingang - 12 - Bismarck ND - 197.6

5.       Bernie Montoya - 12 - Cibola AZ - 196.9*

6.       Brigham Hedges - 12 - The Woodlands TX - 196.0

7.       Jake Heslington - 12 - Timpanogos UT - 195.6*

8.       Alex Riba - 12 - O'Fallon IL - 195.4*

9.       Jacob Burcham - 12 - Cabell Midland WV - 195.3*

10.   Sam Wharton - 12 - Tippecanoe OH - 194.8*

11.   Nate Sullivan  - 12 - Southlake Carroll TX - 194.3

12.   T.J. Carey - 12 - Lake Orion MI - 194.3*

13.   Kai Wilmot - 11 - North Central WA - 194.2

14.   Quentin Shaffer - 12 - Prospect IL - 194.1*

15.   Jack Keelan - 12 - St. Ignatius IL - 194.0*

16.   Robert Domanic - 12 - Lewisville Hebron TX - 193.9*

17.   Jordon Cross - 12 - Ogden UT - 193.5*

18.   Joe Sansone  - 12 - Southlake Carroll TX - 192.9

19.   Bryan Fernandez - 12 - Dos Pueblos CA - 192.9*

20.   Estevan De La Rosa - 11 - Arcadia CA - 192.8

21.   Sumner Goodwin - 12 - Lewis & Clark WA - 192.7*

22.   Ryan Kromer - 12 - Hudson WI - 192.7*

23.   Travis Neuman - 12 - Summit OR - 192.6

24.   Danny Aldaba - 12 - Fremont NE - 192.5*

25.   Tony Russell - 11 - West Chester Henderson PA - 192.3

26.   Obsa Ali - 11 - Richfield MN - 192.3*

27.   Brayden McClelland - 12 - American Fork UT - 192.3

28.   Juan Gonzalez - 12 - El Toro CA - 192.3*

29.   Mathew Maton  - 10 - Summit OR - 192.3

30.   Mickey Burke - 11 - Rush-Henrietta NY - 192.1*

31.   Eric Colvin - 12 - Stillwater MN - 192.1*

32.   Eric Holt - 12 - Carmel NY - 192.0*

33.   Mitchell Pratt - 12 - Arcadia CA - 191.9

34.   Kyle Thompson - 11 - Central Catholic OR - 191.6*

35.   Tanner Anderson - 10 - North Central WA - 191.0

36.   Reiny Barchet - 11 - West Chester Henderson PA - 191.0

37.   Connor Hendrickson  - 11 - Southlake Carroll TX - 190.9

38.   TJ Hornberger - 11 - Lake Shore NY - 190.9*

39.   Alex Hedquist - 12 - Davis UT - 190.7

40.   AJ Yarnall - 12 - Saugus CA - 190.6*

41.   Connor Olson - 10 - Wayzata MN - 190.6*

42.   Scott Milling - 12 - York IL - 190.5

43.   Jack Boyle - 12 - Christian Brothers NJ - 190.5

44.   Eric Alldritt  - 12 - Summit OR - 190.5

45.   Nathaniel Adams - 12 - Lexington MA - 190.3*

46.   Forrest Riley - 12 - Ramona CA - 190.0*

47.   Andy Trouard - 12 - Salpointe Catholic AZ - 189.9*

48.   Ryan Teel - 12 - Friendswood TX - 189.9*

49.   Connor McMillan - 11 - American Fork UT - 189.8

50.   Porter Reddish - 12 - Vista Murrieta CA - 189.4*

7 comments:

  1. Fun stuff to look at.

    It's interesting that these projections take into account NXN results for the past five years. It seems to me that American Fork has been the #1 team in several of the past seasons prior to NXN, only to place 4th to 8th in the race itself. I like the AF program, but perhaps they don't peak well, or run well on the NXN course, or have ill-timed injuries (or a combo). Do you think there is evidence that this year will break the historical pattern?

    Also, like the past two years, I think the Heartland teams are ranked too low. Here, both Heartland teams are projected to finish behind both SE teams, which I just can't see happening. It seems that in recent years, for whatever reason, Heartland teams have dropped in the rankings prior to NXN only to "surprise" people there, whereas SE teams have risen in the rankings prior to NXN only to have "disappointing" races. We'll see if that pattern holds true this year. - statguy37

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    1. Aside from one of their top runners getting injured last year, I think American Fork ran a good race at NXN. And that was the issue, though maybe it wasn't an injury, in 2009 as well: one runner had a significantly off day, and at this level that is going to make a team plummet in the standings (2010 was just a disaster, though their normal #5 did finish as their #1 and in the middle of Arcadia's #2/3 runners).

      That being said, there haven't been many better programs at NXN over the past five years (weighted towards the most recent): North Central has been the clear #1, while Arcadia and Fayetteville-Manlius have run very well. Then it's the trio of CBA, American Fork and York. So while history does hurt them a little in this comparison, it is actually hurting them a little less than Southlake Carroll and about the same as CBA. Do I think there is evidence that this year will break the historical pattern? Well, I don't think there is evidence one way or another, but since they were close two of the three years they've been here I think there is reason to believe they can put it all together just as much as any other team.

      As for the HL and SE teams... I don't think I underrated the HL or overrated the SE last year, but that Arrowhead ran well (and Stilllwater on par) while Belen Jesuit ran way off (and Brentwood ran well). Before NXN, according to my notes I had the HL meet rated at ~15:07, and the review afterwards put it at 15:08. The SE, I had at ~14:38 and the review after put it at 14:37. 2010 is harder to tell, because so many were "off" that day that it kind of throws off the comparisons. Post race review put the Heartland at 14:54 and Southeast at 14:34 (both off of the standard of 15:02 and 14:40). Before NXN that year, I had the HL at 15:00 and 14:33 (meaning I got lucky on the Southeast, though was 6 seconds off of what happened for the Heartland).

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    2. re: HL and SE teams last year... I mean "on par" or "well" or "way off" compared to the rest of the field. Most teams had a runner or two slightly off, so "on par" would be about that. I had Stillwater at 315 points going into the meet and they ended up with 296; Arrowhead at 304 and they ended up 261. Belen at 269 and they ended up with 385. Brentwood at 386 and they ended up with 353.

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  2. Totally agree that AF has been one of the best NXN teams in recent years. My only point is that they've been considered the #1 team at some point in each of the past 4 seasons, yet haven't had a podium finish (we'll see about this year). At some point, it can't be chalked up to bad luck or off days, it becomes a pattern.

    And I guess I was speaking in more general terms about the HL and SE regions. I don't have the data in front of me, but it seems like in recent years the SE teams have been the bottom-dwellers at NXN, whereas the HL has established itself as at least a "middle of the pack" region on the boys side. I guess I find it highly unlikely that this year BOTH the SE teams would beat the Heartland teams. I could be eating my words, but we shall see.

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    Replies
    1. I certainly agree on all accounts. The way I factored in past results at NXN wasn't looking at projected scores vs. actual scores, but rather average scores over that time (with more weight given to more recent years). I'll be making some brief mention of that (AF's history of not running well at NXN compared to what was expected, and other teams with examples of the opposite) in some regard when I post my predictions tomorrow.

      Absolutely, no Southeast team has ever finished above 17th at nationals since the regional was put in place (meaning since more of the best teams in the nation are being represented now than back in 2004-2006). And the Heartland has been placing well, with three top-10 finishes and most of the teams finishing in the #14-18 range. 2007 was the only year when the HL teams lost to the SE teams.

      As for this year... the HL teams look about as strong as usual, while the SE teams look clearly stronger than usual. So, if this year were like any other for the rest of the nation, you'd figure the HL teams would finish probably in the mid teens and the SE teams both inside the top 20, but unsure how far inside (both are the #2 and #3 fastest teams to qualify from the region, so mid teens would probably reasonable since the only team faster - Belen Jesuit - bombed last year while the next best teams have finished anywhere from #17-19).

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  3. Just a hunch but I think Ryan Teel of Friendswood TX will finish well ahead of his projected finish spot, say top 15-20. Teel's numbers don't look real impressive for the season but head to head he has been getting faster and looks to be in tip top shape when it counts the most. Whereas Brigham Hedges has had a great season with very good numbers but appears a little shaky latesly and may be on the downhill side going into nationals. Glad to see Nate Sullivan of SLC up there - he deserves it for sure. I think it will be Sullivan then Teel or Domanic, 1-3 for Texas boys with Sullivan in the top 10 and probably three SLC boys in the top 25. Hoping for SLC boys to win it. They are rock solid and the best ever from Texas.

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  4. Would love to add my two cents but I'm late, I'm late and I hurried and did these. Wish we were having that contest again this year, that was pretty fun. Here are my picks. I can't believe Carroll overtook CBA with the margin I had CBA over them. But this is what I"m going with, this also assumes a healthy Wilmont, I figure even at 85% the guy still should be pretty amazing, if he even runs.

    1 Carroll (TX) ** 127
    2 Christian Brothers (NJ) ** 141
    3 North Central (WA) ** 145
    4 American Fork (UT) ** 156
    5 Arcadia (CA) ** 184
    6 Elmhurst York (IL) ** 247
    7 Cardinal O'Hara (PA) ** 257
    8 Carlsbad (CA) ** 285
    9 West Chester Henderson (PA) ** 286
    10 St. Xavier (KY) ** 288
    11 Fayetteville-Manlius (NY) ** 290
    12 Summit (OR) ** 294
    13 Davis (UT) ** 301
    14 Saratoga Springs (NY) 335
    15 California HS (CA) ** 338
    16 St. Xavier (OH) ** 354
    17 Kamiakin (WA) ** 356
    18 Dowling Catholic (IA) ** 358
    19 Blacksburg (VA) ** 368
    20 The Woodlands (TX) ** 368
    21 Carmel (IN) ** 384
    22 Bismarck (ND) ** 412

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