Monday, September 26, 2016

Northwest Boys Outlook - post Sep. 24 weekend

Now that the biggest weekend in the Northwest season is in the books (Bob Firman, Mountain West and Nike Portland all on the same weekend and among the bigger/better meets of the season), it is probably a good time to start taking a look at how teams might compare to one another. I'll keep this post very simple, as I haven't finished looking at how all the meets compare yet - might update this post at some point, I don't know. However, I will at least post this much to get the rough conversation started.

What teams were the fastest at the major NW meets this weekend?

Here are the ROUGH estimates I have so far for the meets:

14:24.31 Mountain West MT
14:44.46 Nike Portland OR
15:09.44 Bob Firman ID
14:20ish? Meriwether OR
14:45ish? Bellevue WA
15:45ish? Roy Griak MN (out of region, but important for NW girls w/ Mountain View ID)

which would give the following breakdown (NW teams in bold, team averages adjusted to Bob Firman as the standard) -

Tier 1.0: Davis UT (15:51.12 @ Bob Firman ID)

Tier 2.0: Ogden UT (16:08.00 @ Bob Firman ID), Timpanogos UT (16:08.35 // 15:41.76 @ Nike Portland OR), Springville UT (16:09.20 @ Bob Firman ID), North Central WA (16:09.38 @ Bob Firman ID)

Tier 2.5: Crater OR (16:17.34 @ Bob Firman ID), Bozeman MT (16:19.05 // 15:30.46 @ Mountain West MT), Skyline ID (16:21.70 @ Bob Firman ID), Wayzata MN (16:25.54 // 17:04.08 @ Roy Griak MN)

Tier 3.0: Bellarmine Prep WA (16:28.44 @ Bob Firman ID), Eisenhower WA (16:28.61 // 16:02.04 @ Bellevue WA), Borah ID (16:29.72 @ Bob Firman ID), Tahoma WA (16:30.33 // 16:03.72 @ Bellevue WA), Orem UT (16:30.66 @ Bob Firman ID), Pine View UT (16:31.02 @ Bob Firman ID), Skyridge UT (16:32.24 @ Bob Firman ID), Spanish Fork UT (16:33.88 @ Bob Firman ID), Madera South CA (16:34.32 @ Bob Firman ID), Claremont CA (16:34.81 // 17:13.71 @ Roy Griak MN), Millard West NE (16:35.06 // 17:13.97 @ Roy Griak MN)

Tier 3.5: Eleanor Roosevelt CA (16:38.68 // 16:11.24 @ Nike Portland OR), Riverton UT (16:38.70 @ Bob Firman ID), Lewiston ID (16:40.48 @ Bob Firman ID), Stansbury UT (16:41.76 @ Bob Firman ID), Lewis & Clark WA (16:42.67 // 15:52.92 @ Mountain West MT), Mira Costa CA (16:43.45 // 16:15.89 @ Nike Portland OR), Henry Jackson WA (16:44.74 // 16:17.14 @ Nike Portland OR), Central Catholic OR (16:44.81 // 15:50.19 @ Meriwether OR), Weber UT (16:46.70 @ Bob Firman ID), Glacier Peak WA (16:47.29 // 16:20.22 @ Bellevue WA), Summit OR (16:47.35 // 16:19.68 @ Nike Portland OR), Camas WA (16:47.58 // 16:19.91 @ Nike Portland OR), Sugar-Salem ID (16:47.82 @ Bob Firman ID), Rocky Mountain ID (16:48.06 @ Bob Firman ID), South Eugene OR (16:48.73 // 16:21.02 @ Nike Portland OR)

"Tier 1.0" are teams that could probably be US Top-5 (if they don't have an excessive spread)
"Tier 2.0" are teams that could probably be US Top-15 (if they don't have an excessive spread)
"Tier 2.5" are teams that could probably be US Top-35 (if they don't have an excessive spread)
"Tier 3.0" are teams that could probably be US Top-50 (if they don't have an excessive spread)
"Tier 3.5" are teams that could probably be NW Top-10 with good races at NXN-NW (if they don't have an excessive spread)

note that just because a team made the cut for a higher tier doesn't mean they are a better team - team average is just one measure, and one race on one day does not define how good a team is this season.

Also, for what it's worth... if I were to come up with a NW Top-5 rankings, I would probably have something along the lines of:

1. North Central WA = Won Tracy Walters WA; Second at Bob Firman ID
2. Bozeman MT = Won Bozeman MT; Won Great Falls MT; Won Mountain West MT
3. Crater OR = Won Crusader OR; fifth at Bob Firman ID
4. Skyline ID = Third at Cardinal Classic ID (s/h); Won Tiger/Grizz ID; sixth at Bob Firman ID
5. Bellarmine Prep WA = Won Bellarmine WA (s/h); seventh at Bob Firman ID

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