Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Oregon 5A State Meet Projections

Important Note: These projections are ONLY based on the League Championship results. Not all teams went all-out, and not all individuals went all-out, meaning those teams/athletes should do better than these projections would indicate. Predicting results based off of one single performance is rarely a good idea, but with only one level of state qualifying and without every team lining up for a mid-October invite, there isn't really a better way to do these. So, take them with a big grain of salt.

Included below are the projected team scores, Top 50 Individuals, as well as their League rating and Lane CC (Oregon State XC) '15 equivalent times.

note: I am not going to include Oregon 4A projections because I don't have a good grasp on the 4A-7 meet. However, it would seem like the favorites are already probably pretty well established for those that are interested anyways, so probably not a big deal for any of the readers here. That being said, if there are any of you who want me to do the 4A projections, let me know and I'll see what I can do.


Boys Teams:

  1.  37 - Crater - 16:13.09
  2.  49 - Summit - 16:23.53
  3. 121 - Hood River Valley - 17:05.35
  4. 122 - Ashland - 17:03.08
  5. 137 - Marist - 17:05.97
  6. 183 - Bend - 17:27.51
  7. 206 - The Dalles - 17:33.48
  8. 230 - Silverton - 17:44.89
  9. 238 - Sandy - 17:38.02
  10. 241 - Wilsonville - 17:42.04
  11. 245 - Crescent Valley - 17:46.97
  12. 276 - Woodburn - 17:57.83
  13. 339 - La Salle Prep - 18:21.72



Boys Top 50 Individuals:

  1. 184.9 - 15:42.23 - Andy Monroe, 11 - Crater
  2. 180.8 - 15:54.59 - Jerik Embleton, 11 - Marist
  3. 177.3 - 16:05.07 - Thomas Schoderbek, 12 - Summit
  4. 177.0 - 16:05.99 - Niklas Sjogren, 12 - Summit
  5. 176.1 - 16:08.75 - Derek Tripp, 11 - Crater
  6. 176.0 - 16:08.96 - Scott Kinkade, 12 - Summit
  7. 176.0 - 16:09.05 - EJ Holland, 9 - Ashland
  8. 174.6 - 16:13.17 - Griff Hokanson, 12 - Crater
  9. 173.0 - 16:17.76 - Nicholas Whitaker, 11 - Wilsonville
  10. 172.8 - 16:18.39 - Albert Hesse, 11 - Ridgeview
  11. 172.6 - 16:19.10 - Jantz Tostenson, 10 - Crater
  12. 172.5 - 16:19.52 - Inteus Schiavo, 12 - Mountain View (OR)
  13. 172.1 - 16:20.46 - Michael Callaway, 12 - Sandy
  14. 169.8 - 16:27.30 - Jett Ballantyne, 11 - Summit
  15. 166.4 - 16:37.48 - Timothy Kaelin, 12 - Churchill
  16. 164.9 - 16:42.20 - Nathan Edwards, 12 - Crater
  17. 164.5 - 16:43.44 - Jesse Wiley, 12 - Hood River Valley
  18. 164.0 - 16:44.69 - Jacob Bromham, 12 - Hood River Valley
  19. 161.8 - 16:51.44 - Erik Olsen, 11 - Crater
  20. 160.4 - 16:55.69 - Ezekiel Stelzer, 12 - The Dalles
  21. 160.2 - 16:56.31 - Ian Vickstrom, 11 - Corvallis
  22. 159.6 - 16:57.96 - Trevor Cross, 10 - Dallas
  23. 158.9 - 17:00.07 - Isaac Sanchez, 11 - Hermiston
  24. 158.1 - 17:02.38 - Hosea Catterall, 12 - Silverton
  25. 157.3 - 17:04.75 - Geovani Bravo, 10 - Woodburn
  26. 157.0 - 17:05.61 - Henry Williams, 9 - Ashland
  27. 156.4 - 17:07.39 - Connor Truax, 11 - Hood River Valley
  28. 156.0 - 17:08.72 - Gabe Garboden, 10 - Marist
  29. 155.8 - 17:09.18 - AJ Sandvig, 11 - Crescent Valley
  30. 155.7 - 17:09.59 - Tyler Miller, 11 - South Albany
  31. 155.5 - 17:10.34 - Camden Hammer, 12 - Summit
  32. 155.0 - 17:11.67 - Bennet Jackson, 9 - Bend
  33. 154.7 - 17:12.64 - Evan Villano, 9 - Marist
  34. 153.7 - 17:15.45 - Gabe Southmayd, 11 - Crater
  35. 153.6 - 17:15.87 - Elkin Parker, 11 - Hood River Valley
  36. 153.6 - 17:15.97 - Samuel Schoderbek, 11 - Summit
  37. 152.5 - 17:19.07 - Jordan Mortensen, 10 - Ashland
  38. 152.0 - 17:20.61 - Haile Stutzman, 10 - Silverton
  39. 152.0 - 17:20.67 - Alex Franklin, 11 - Ashland
  40. 151.9 - 17:20.98 - Lars Weston, 11 - Ashland
  41. 151.9 - 17:21.10 - Trevor Wilber, 10 - Bend
  42. 149.9 - 17:26.83 - Hunter Greene, 10 - Bend
  43. 149.7 - 17:27.61 - Nicholas Turkisher, 12 - Crescent Valley
  44. 149.7 - 17:27.68 - Jony Nelson, 12 - The Dalles
  45. 149.4 - 17:28.50 - Luke McLean, 12 - The Dalles
  46. 149.1 - 17:29.31 - Joey Peterson, 10 - Marist
  47. 148.9 - 17:30.00 - Ben Johnstun, 12 - St Helens
  48. 147.9 - 17:32.88 - Chaderic Ford, 11 - Summit
  49. 147.6 - 17:33.70 - Brandon Brozstek, 11 - Sandy
  50. 147.6 - 17:33.90 - Maitiu Millar-Sanchez, 11 - Bend



Girls Teams:

  1.  27 - Summit - 19:09.58
  2.  64 - Crescent Valley - 19:50.39
  3. 135 - Hood River Valley - 20:28.96
  4. 146 - Wilsonville - 20:40.98
  5. 149 - Crater - 20:40.35
  6. 151 - Lebanon - 20:32.48
  7. 197 - Marist - 21:07.31
  8. 208 - Bend - 20:58.23
  9. 240 - Ashland - 21:22.64
  10. 241 - Sandy - 21:21.55
  11. 260 - St Helens - 21:28.06
  12. 260 - The Dalles - 21:28.64
  13. 263 - Corvallis - 21:36.95



Girls Top 50 Individuals:

  1. 123.8 - 18:45.11 - Olivia Brooks, 12 - Summit
  2. 121.6 - 18:51.65 - McKenna Henke, 11 - Crescent Valley
  3. 120.3 - 18:55.46 - Hannah Tobiason, 11 - Summit
  4. 120.2 - 18:55.87 - Taylor Vandenborn, 11 - Summit
  5. 116.4 - 19:07.24 - Grace Perkins, 12 - Bend
  6. 115.2 - 19:10.83 - Kelsey Swenson, 10 - Mountain View (OR)
  7. 113.0 - 19:17.18 - Geneva Wolfe, 10 - Crescent Valley
  8. 110.7 - 19:24.15 - Emma Stevenson, 12 - Summit
  9. 110.5 - 19:24.91 - Hannah Mason, 11 - Lebanon
  10. 107.2 - 19:34.78 - Ariana Marks, 11 - Crater
  11. 103.7 - 19:45.02 - Daisy Dolan, 12 - Hood River Valley
  12. 103.3 - 19:46.36 - Lottie Bromham, 9 - Hood River Valley
  13. 103.0 - 19:47.31 - Kelsey Washenberger, 11 - Summit
  14. 101.9 - 19:50.65 - Isabella Ayala, 10 - Lebanon
  15.  98.2 - 20:01.49 - Brooklyn Stenstrom, 11 - Wilsonville
  16.  98.1 - 20:01.90 - Emelia Sherman, 10 - Springfield
  17.  97.2 - 20:04.62 - Liv Downing, 10 - Summit
  18.  93.8 - 20:14.78 - Molly Murphy-Brown, 11 - Sandy
  19.  93.1 - 20:16.71 - Christina Hollon, 12 - Crescent Valley
  20.  92.4 - 20:18.88 - Samantha Prusse, 9 - Wilsonville
  21.  91.4 - 20:21.96 - Kela Leamy, 11 - Crescent Valley
  22.  90.6 - 20:24.43 - Sophie Fisher, 9 - Crescent Valley
  23.  89.5 - 20:27.71 - Isabella Zachem, 9 - Marist
  24.  87.6 - 20:33.24 - Kylie Caldwell, 11 - Crater
  25.  85.6 - 20:39.36 - Haley Prusse, 12 - Wilsonville
  26.  85.5 - 20:39.56 - Autumn Layden, 12 - Summit
  27.  85.3 - 20:40.27 - Hazel Richards, 10 - Ashland
  28.  84.8 - 20:41.73 - Olivia Helback, 12 - Corvallis
  29.  83.8 - 20:44.59 - Natalie Elstone, 9 - Churchill
  30.  83.6 - 20:45.19 - Booy Rogers, 12 - Marist
  31.  83.5 - 20:45.43 - Emma Mullins, 10 - The Dalles
  32.  83.1 - 20:46.84 - Gemma Munck, 11 - Bend
  33.  82.9 - 20:47.20 - Alexa Hague, 10 - Ashland
  34.  82.7 - 20:47.81 - Viola Stark, 9 - Corvallis
  35.  82.7 - 20:47.85 - Mackenzie Trainer, 10 - St Helens
  36.  82.6 - 20:48.11 - Mina Buchanan, 11 - Marist
  37.  82.5 - 20:48.65 - Alana Baldwin-Joiner, 12 - Hillsboro
  38.  82.2 - 20:49.36 - Evelyn Nunez, 10 - Hood River Valley
  39.  81.0 - 20:52.98 - Celia Acosta, 9 - Hood River Valley
  40.  80.1 - 20:55.75 - Nikki Stokes, 11 - Sandy
  41.  78.2 - 21:01.27 - Presley Robison, 9 - Crater
  42.  77.6 - 21:03.17 - Elezebeth Allen, 10 - Crater
  43.  77.0 - 21:04.94 - Cheyenne Trainer, 10 - St Helens
  44.  77.0 - 21:05.00 - McKenna Tanselli, 12 - Lebanon
  45.  76.6 - 21:06.04 - Kylee Rusher, 9 - Wilsonville
  46.  76.3 - 21:07.19 - Hope Powell, 12 - Marist
  47.  75.6 - 21:09.30 - Gracen Hokanson, 9 - Crater
  48.  75.1 - 21:10.67 - Megan Miller, 10 - Lebanon
  49.  75.0 - 21:11.06 - Reed Bauer, 9 - Hood River Valley
  50.  74.9 - 21:11.18 - Kiara Harris, 10 - Lebanon
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