Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Updated Top 10s for NXN and WA State

Here is an updated list of the Top 10 programs at NXN and Washington State (over the last 10 years only). This is something I've done for a few years now, where I take the average scores and adjust by the # of times the teams have qualified. In order to keep things balanced between qualifiers and non-qualifiers, I include a max score of 330 (so any team that scores 335 is counted as scoring 330, as well as any non-qualifying team). The purpose here is to find who is consistently towards the top.

For Washington, I take these scores from the 22 team Power Merge from every year (done by scoring every team, removing all except the top 30, and then all except the top 22 teams).

Just for fun, since it is topic that has been brought up on some message boards recently (when talking about percieved advantages some programs have over others), I'll also include enrollment statistics: Average class size, as well as the # of classes each team can draw from for the NXN chart.

Average Score - School (Times Qualified) - Average Class Size / # of classes

Boys NXN Nationals Top 10 Programs:
  1. 221.0 - American Fork UT (8) - Class size: 698.67/4
  2. 225.3 - North Central WA (8) - Class size: 348.42/4
  3. 240.2 - Christian Brothers NJ (7) - Class size: 384.50/4
  4. 261.8 - Arcadia CA (5) - Class size: 856.00/4
  5. 267.0 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY (9) - Class size: 353.67/6
  6. 269.3 - The Woodlands TX (9) - Class size: 1070.00/4
  7. 279.5 - Davis UT (6) - Class size: 787.67/4
  8. 289.8 - Neuqua Valley IL (5) - Class size: 941.00/4
  9. 290.4 - Dana Hills CA (7) - Class size: 669.75/4
  10. 290.8 - York IL (6) - Class size: 660.75/4

Additional note: all are public schools except Christian Brothers NJ


Girls NXN Nationals Top 10 Programs:
  1.   65.0 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY (10) - Class size: 353.67/6
  2. 208.5 - Saratoga Springs NY (9) - Class size: 533.00/6
  3. 245.9 - Carmel IN (7) - Class size: 1207.50/4
  4. 251.2 - Fort Collins CO (7) - Class size: 437.50/4
  5. 255.3 - Saugus CA (7) - Class size: 582.50/4
  6. 275.6 - Great Oak CA (6) - Class size: 868.25/4
  7. 280.7 - Tatnall DE (6) - Class size: 60.75/6
  8. 289.0 - Wayzata MN (3) - Class size: 769.50/6
  9. 291.7 - Davis CA (3) - Class size: 561.00/4
  10. 297.6 - Southlake Carroll TX (8) - Class size: 672.88/4

Additional note: all are public schools except Tatnall DE


Boys Washington State Top 10 Programs:
  1.   93.4 - North Central (10) - Class size: 348.42
  2. 232.5 - Eisenhower (10) - Class size: 538.83
  3. 240.9 - Gig Harbor (9) - Class size: 409.15
  4. 240.9 - Kamiakin (8) - Class size: 436.79
  5. 259.5 - Joel Ferris (5) - Class size: 468.29
  6. 262.5 - Seattle Prep (7) - Class size: 181.17
  7. 275.5 - Central Valley (7) - Class size: 545.04
  8. 277.4 - Tahoma (8) - Class size: 570.75
  9. 280.2 - Henry Jackson (8) - Class size: 543.25
  10. 283.4 - Sehome (10) - Class size: 289.04
Additional note: all are public schools except Seattle Prep


Girls Washington State Top 10 Programs:
  1. 209.0 - Camas (6) - Class size: 522.92
  2. 217.4 - Glacier Peak (9) - Class size: 447.76
  3. 231.8 - Tahoma (10) - Class size: 570.75
  4. 255.4 - Bellarmine Prep (8) - Class size: 252.79
  5. 255.7 - Sehome (9) - Class size: 289.04
  6. 264.2 - Eastlake (7) - Class size: 411.2
  7. 283.4 - Gig Harbor (4) - Class size: 409.15
  8. 283.6 - Issaquah (4) - Class size: 530.07
  9. 287.4 - Central Valley (9) - Class size: 545.04
  10. 292.9 - Redmond (6) - Class size: 447.72
Additional note: all are public schools except Bellarmine Prep. Also, Glacier Peak is only 9 years old, meaning they have been in the Washington Top 22 every single year of their existence - kudos to Coach Parker!



Trends I note:

-School size is important, but only to a degree: the best programs in the nation range from about 350 students per class to about 1200 per class, with the lone exception of the Tatnall DE girls. Within Washington, it's a similar story: between roughly 300-575, with the exceptions of two private schools.

-Public schools dominate this list, with exactly 1 private school in each of the four rankings.

-The effect of being able to work with/draw from more than 4 classes isn't really much of an issue on the boys side with only 1 program having that capability, but it is another story on the girls side as half of top eight NXN Girls programs come from states where middle school athletes can train and compete with high school athletes.

-Every single NXN region has at least one program in the top 10, suggesting that NO region has any significant advantage/disadvantage due to either travel or layout/condition of the course, despite often-mentioned complaints otherwise :)


My takes from that enrollment data:
-School size doesn't matter much once you reach a critical level.
-Small sized private schools might be better able to compete with larger programs than their public counterparts
-Getting access to better training for middle school boys has less of an impact than does middle school girls, and the impact on a program in the latter case seems to play a notable role.

Those points are not meant to take away from those programs with those advantages in any way - it always takes a very good coaching staff and a developed culture to establish a program as strong as those mentioned - but just wanted to quickly address the topic du jour (jure? it's been a while since I studied french).


Also, here are the average Regional scores at NXN (sorted by average AQ score) :

Average AQ Score - Region - Average Top-2 Score - # of teams under 331 points / # of teams - % of teams sub-331

Boys Regions =
  1. 222.70 - Southwest - 216.40 - 22/25 - 88.00%
  2. 247.00 - Northwest - 247.00 - 16/22 - 72.73%
  3. 255.95 - Midwest - 241.35 - 24/28 - 85.71%
  4. 266.65 - California - 247.30 - 21/32 - 65.63%
  5. 279.50 - Northeast - 279.50 - 15/25 - 60.00%
  6. 288.30 - New York - 285.30 - 15/22 - 72.73%
  7. 310.75 - South - 301.40 - 13/24 - 54.17%
  8. 316.60 - Heartland - 316.60 - 14/22 - 63.64%
  9. 358.90 - Southeast - 358.90 - 7/20 - 35.00%


Girls Regions =
  1. 140.10 - New York - 139.05 - 28/31 - 90.32%
  2. 251.50 - California - 241.80 - 20/28 - 71.43%
  3. 262.10 - Southwest - 254.15 - 19/25 - 76.00%
  4. 276.95 - Midwest - 268.55 - 16/26 - 61.54%
  5. 315.05 - Southeast - 306.15 - 12/23 - 52.17%
  6. 325.05 - Heartland - 325.05 - 11/20 - 55.00%
  7. 341.55 - Northwest - 332.90 - 12/21 - 57.14%
  8. 364.45 - Northeast - 354.75 - 10/23 - 43.48%
  9. 377.20 - South - 373.80 - 5/23 - 21.74%

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