tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post1586721497398770692..comments2021-04-12T10:17:47.549-07:00Comments on Watchout Cross Country Rankings: California Roundup - Sep. 9Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-42560080861815891802012-09-10T13:42:48.441-07:002012-09-10T13:42:48.441-07:00If Jordan Rich ran as well as she has in the past,...If Jordan Rich ran as well as she has in the past, La Costa Canyon's score and team time would have improved. Just because Rich didn't run at the California State XC meet or track doesn't mean she isn't as good as she showed at the CIF-SDS Finals.<br /><br />She is the projected #5/6 runner. Another of their top five (Ellie Abrahamson) was also missing. Therefore, she would have been the projected #4/5 and contributed to the team score, based on what we know going into the season.<br /><br />I don't see how it can possibly be disingenuous to say that a projected scorer missing might have had an effect on the results of the meet. I'm also not sure why this is significant enough issue to debate it ... if it is only because I didn't mention missing runners for teams that didn't race head to head, well that's because they didn't race head to head and team scores didn't really mean much (if they are even posted) -- as is the case for both the Fastback Shootout and Seaside Invitational, which was broken down into multiple races by class. Bronco Roundup was a varsity race, which included a score where the pre-race favorite got beat. That is why it seemed important enough for me to mention a team was missing scorers.watchouthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02838975063853852963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-65893030313640284272012-09-10T13:27:54.245-07:002012-09-10T13:27:54.245-07:00Given there's no evidence that Rich is consist...Given there's no evidence that Rich is consistently better than Fromme and the youngest Abrahamson, there's no reason to believe that Rich would have improved LCC's score. The same is not true of Ellie Abrahamson or the missing girls from Great Oak, Saugus and Simi Valley. If they ran as well as they have in the past, those teams' scores and team times would have improved.GBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-8672534201192552622012-09-10T11:52:52.547-07:002012-09-10T11:52:52.547-07:00Just how is it disingenuous to mention Rich as a m...Just how is it disingenuous to mention Rich as a missing runner? She is their #5/6 returner going into the season (both her and Steigerwald projected @ 105), and they were missing their #3 (Ellie Abrahmson), which means that she should have been their #4/5 that day... therefore, a missing projected scorer.watchouthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02838975063853852963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-86658205326081629492012-09-10T11:41:30.547-07:002012-09-10T11:41:30.547-07:00But to mention Rich as a "missing runner"...But to mention Rich as a "missing runner" as if she were a factor last year seems disingenuous (and she may not have run track). LCC appears to have three returners - Stiegerwald, Rich & Fromme - plus the youngest Abrahamson at about the same level.<br /><br />BTW - Thanks for making it easier to post a comment.GBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-90554845084057527142012-09-10T10:50:18.084-07:002012-09-10T10:50:18.084-07:00La Costa Canyon: Unless my information on them is ...La Costa Canyon: Unless my information on them is wrong, Jordan Rich was the other missing runner (she didn't run/finish at state, but was their #6 at CIF-SDS as a frosh last fall).watchouthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02838975063853852963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-31763261794377149882012-09-10T10:07:19.342-07:002012-09-10T10:07:19.342-07:00Great Oak was missing top athletes too:
Team #1 -...Great Oak was missing top athletes too:<br /><br />Team #1 - Jack Balder - 12 - Taking ACT<br />Team #2 - Nathan Velarde - 12 - Taking ACT<br />Team #3 - Kaden Lapham - 12 - Resting<br />Team #8 - Tristan Tapia - 10 - Resting (about the same speed as David Carvajal).<br /><br />Team #2 - Kim McNamee - 12 - Taking ACT<br />Team #3 - Rachel Seymour - 12 - Taking ACT (had allergy issues in 2011, healthy this year).<br /><br />Looks like it will be a fun year in CA! I agree, Saugus' performance at Seaside is way underated. Coach Paragas does an amazing job with his kids. Go back and look at what those same girls ran as 9th graders. Amazing improvements across the board every year in that program. He has definitely continued to set the bar for all other coaches.<br /><br />Coach SolesCoach Solesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-81614525958585143682012-09-09T20:21:54.342-07:002012-09-09T20:21:54.342-07:00Reading team rankings has to be one of the most en...Reading team rankings has to be one of the most entertaining aspects of high school xc. It's entertaining generates excitement heading into meets with anticipated match-ups between teams. But.... I believe that the concept of "speed ratings" is so wrongly applied to invitationals and championship meets that last multiple hours. Take Seaside for example. First race 2:00pm, 83 degrees no wind. Last race 5:15pm 72 degrees substantial wind blowing. Now how does one speed rating scale for a day at a course apply to all races? I personally think it's a flawed system. But I love reading what people have to write, it's fun.<br /><br />Oh and you may want to look at Dos Pueblos as a team since they were nearly a full minute faster than Trabuco Hills.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-23808973700191874892012-09-09T19:24:54.156-07:002012-09-09T19:24:54.156-07:00Simi Valley was missing Rachel Vinas and Madelyn V...Simi Valley was missing Rachel Vinas and Madelyn Vorgitch.<br /><br />Saugus was missing Heidi Hoslet.<br /><br />La Costa Canyon was missing Ellie Abrahamson.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-3917321034315577672012-09-09T18:46:18.774-07:002012-09-09T18:46:18.774-07:00Elle Abrahamson didn't run. Who is the other ...Elle Abrahamson didn't run. Who is the other missing LCC top 6 girl? <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-45414489801012176192012-09-09T18:07:36.642-07:002012-09-09T18:07:36.642-07:00I'll raise the Seaside times to the highest I ...I'll raise the Seaside times to the highest I can justify (200.0 ~ 13:38). That is still 32 seconds faster than I had it last year... but based on what all those athletes have run before (that I kept track of going into the season), that's as slow as I can estimate it. Bear in mind, this is a very early season result, which means three things: It won't really make a difference in any of my rankings, times aren't going to be near what they will be at the end of the season (assuming the coach isn't already racing his kids all-out or in near-peak race readiness), and that ratings are always going to be questionable until you get to meets on well known courses.watchouthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02838975063853852963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-74876622480370470022012-09-09T17:42:56.812-07:002012-09-09T17:42:56.812-07:00Rob you're one of the most respected writers o...Rob you're one of the most respected writers out there about our sport. Normally I think you're damn accurate. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say you may want to reevaluate your Seaside ratings. To me it looks like 13:45 is ~200, based on what Meylan had last year for Seaside and the fact that the course was running about 20-25 seconds fast this year. That would put someone like Zerrener at about 140. That seems very reasonable for a 10:28 3200m runner. It would also place the Saugus girls between 129 and 119. A Saugus team that essentially ran the same team time (within seconds) at their first meet as last year without a big front runner like Karis Frankian. Either way, thanks for everything that you do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-2959689008000307682012-09-09T15:56:23.768-07:002012-09-09T15:56:23.768-07:00. and how is Zerrender's 16:44, a mark that.... and how is Zerrender's 16:44, a mark that's 9 seconds off Kim Mortenson's once-thought-unapproachable course record only worth a 129.5?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-675840884075304933.post-34153834202635139672012-09-09T15:54:31.024-07:002012-09-09T15:54:31.024-07:00Ummmm can you explain to us why Saugus' speed ...Ummmm can you explain to us why Saugus' speed ratings are so low and Simi Valley and Great Oak's aren't? Saugus ran those times on a 3.03-mile course (it was GPS'd twice) and a week before that, ran TWO-MILE marks almost as fast as both Simi and Great Oak's 1.9-mile marks on Palos Verdes' course, arguably the most challenging course in the section. Saugus looks better than both those teams that ran at the Fastback Inv.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com