Side note: Adjusted Enrollment (using the WIAA's adjustment for socio-economic conditions) has a 14.4% stronger correlation to Athletic Program achievement within 4A than total Enrollment would have had.
Average Points - School - Class-District (League)
Schools in bold have OPTED UP to their 2020 classification.
Schools in red are dropping from 4A to 3A (and in one case, 2A).
- 646.3 - Camas - 4A-4 (GSHL)
- 435.8 - Tahoma - 4A-3 (NPSL)
- 411.3 - Issaquah - 4A-2 (KingCo)
- 350.0 - Skyline - 4A-2 (KingCo)
- 341.3 - Central Valley - 4A-8 (GSL)
- 316.3 - Union - 4A-4 (GSHL)
- 310.5 - Curtis - 4A-3 (SPSL)
- 301.3 - Puyallup - 4A-3 (SPSL)
- 299.3 - Henry Jackson - 4A-1 (WESCO)
- 296.8 - Bellarmine Prep - 4A-3 (SPSL)
- 276.5 - Newport (Bellevue) - 4A-2 (KingCo)
- 263.8 - Lake Stevens - 4A-1 (WESCO)
- 258.8 - Lewis & Clark - 4A-8 (GSL)
- 258.8 - Glacier Peak - 4A-1 (WESCO)
- 249.8 - Mead - 3A-8 (GSL)
- 245.0 - Wenatchee - 4A-6 (CBBN)
- 245.0 - Redmond - 4A-2 (KingCo)
- 240.5 - Richland - 4A-8 (MCC)
- 237.5 - Skyview - 4A-4 (GSHL)
- 234.3 - Kentwood - 4A-3 (NPSL)
- 231.3 - Woodinville - 4A-2 (KingCo)
- 229.3 - Kamiak - 4A-1 (WESCO)
- 208.8 - Chiawana - 4A-8 (MCC)
- 206.3 - Gonzaga Prep - 4A-8 (GSL)
- 200.0 - Sumner - 4A-3 (NPSL)
- 187.3 - Eastlake - 4A-2 (KingCo)
- 174.3 - Auburn Riverside - 3A-3 (NPSL)
- 169.5 - Moses Lake - 4A-6 (CBBN)
- 167.0 - Rogers (Puyallup) - 4A-3 (SPSL)
- 162.5 - Hanford - 4A-8 (MCC)
- 150.5 - Federal Way - 4A-3 (NPSL)
- 148.3 - Kentridge - 4A-3 (NPSL)
- 146.3 - South Kitsap - 4A-3 (SPSL)
- 146.3 - Olympia - 4A-3 (SPSL)
- 143.0 - Eastmont - 4A-6 (CBBN)
- 139.3 - Mount Si - 4A-2 (KingCo)
- 133.8 - West Valley (Yakima) - 4A-6 (CBBN)
- 131.8 - Pasco - 4A-8 (MCC)
- 125.5 - Sunnyside - 4A-6 (CBBN)
- 124.0 - Bothell - 4A-2 (KingCo)
- 111.0 - Emerald Ridge - 4A-3 (SPSL)
- 102.5 - Thomas Jefferson - 3A-3 (NPSL)
- 100.3 - Walla Walla - 3A-8 (GSL)
- 99.3 - Todd Beamer - 3A-3 (NPSL)
- 97.5 - Kennedy Catholic - 4A-3 (NPSL)
- 96.3 - Inglemoor - 4A-2 (KingCo)
- 84.0 - North Creek - 4A-2 (KingCo)
- 80.5 - Kentlake - 3A-3 (NPSL)
- 77.5 - Auburn Mountainview - 3A-3 (NPSL)
- 77.3 - Graham-Kapowsin - 4A-3 (SPSL)
- 74.8 - Monroe - 3A-1 (WESCO)
- 72.5 - Eisenhower - 4A-6 (CBBN)
- 65.5 - Decatur - 4A-3 (NPSL)
- 63.0 - Joel Ferris - 3A-8 (GSL)
- 58.8 - Battle Ground - 4A-4 (GSHL)
- 58.5 - Enumclaw - 2A-3 (SPSL)
- 53.0 - University - 3A-8 (GSL)
- 50.5 - A.C. Davis - 4A-6 (CBBN)
- 50.5 - Hazen - 3A-2 (KingCo)
- 38.8 - Mount Vernon - 3A-1 (NWC)
- 37.5 - Mount Rainier - 4A-3 (NPSL)
- 28.0 - Cascade (Everett) - 3A-1 (WESCO)
- 15.0 - Mariner - 4A-1 (WESCO)
- 10.0 - Kent Meridian - 4A-3 (NPSL)
- 7.5 - Auburn - 3A-3 (NPSL)
- 0.0 - Heritage - 3A-4 (GSHL)
... in total, 39 of the top 41 schools are remaining in 4A, while 15 of the bottom 25 schools are dropping to a different classification (and as you will see in the next post, 2 teams are moving up from 3A).
Opting-Up Summary:
It is my understanding that the Yakima-area CBBN schools decided to stay as a single-class league, and with A.C. Davis just barely missing out on the 3A/4A Cut-off (1300 was the cut-off, and their enrollment came in at 1314), that meant staying in 4A rather than dropping to 3A (which would have left Moses Lake and Wenatchee as the lone 4A members, assuming Eastmont would follow the rest of the league rather than their neighbor school in Wenatchee).
The NPSL became a split-class league, which makes me wonder about some of the decisions those schools remaining in 4A: Mount Rainier opted to stay in 4A despite having the sixth worst score in the classification, and Decatur opted to stay in 4A despite not being particularly competitive and having the 14th worst score. Kennedy Catholic makes some sense: a strong football program, and their athletics programs as a whole averaging nearly 100 points per year, means while they aren't that competitive as a whole (#45/66 in the classification over the last 4 years) but aren't so out of their depth that it is unreasonable (about halfway between the middle third and lower third of schools in the classification). Federal Way and Sumner also makes sense as middle-of-the-pack schools as it stands.
Northshore School District remaining intact as part of the 4A KingCo also makes sense, even though all 4 schools (Bothell, Inglemoor, North Creek, Woodinville) had to opt-up to do so. Woodinville is a strong program, and although North Creek and Inglemoor are in the bottom third of the classification that is arguably due in part to North Creek opening up only 3 years ago (and they are both close to the Top 45). Plus, geographically speaking it seems like 4A KingCo is a better fit than 3A KingCo for those schools.
It will be interesting to watch this unfold in future cycles, because it seems somewhat likely that 4A drops below the required 51 schools to maintain a 16-team state tournament as early as next cycle... the 1300 enrollment cut-off made sense prior to the socio-economic adjustment factor (which is also a good thing), but since both amendments passed in 2019 they kind of messed things up together... it probably would have been more sustainable if the 3A/4A Cut-off was 1200 or 1250 instead of 1300 due to that amendment: 1250 would have meant 10 more schools in 4A leaving 61 in 4A and 69 in 3A, while a cut-off at 1200 would have meant 18 more schools in 4A leaving 69 in 4A and 61 in 3A. With the opening of a new school in the Central Valley school district in 2021, that will probably drop Central Valley to 3A along with the new school, meaning that it will be 50 in 4A and 81 in 3A before any additional changes take place, and if Davis dips below the cut-off that means most of the CBBN would drop as well, leaving 4A potentially under 45 schools in the entire classification and 3A approaching 90.
