Just a couple quick post-race thoughts as I look through the results...
Seems I overestimated the South, Heartland and California races to various degrees. Also, Summit OR continues to run poorly at Nationals after stepping up big time at NXR, as they seemingly do every year...
First guess is that the girls NXN race is probably going to end up around 200.0 = 15:35. Boys probably around 15:45-15:48.
Brie Oakley: WOW. What an incredible performance by her. Probably looking at a 169 or 170 rating from me.
Casey Clinger: First multiple time boys champion. Took control of the race, looks like about a 205 or 206 rating from me.
Girls (Team) MVP: Sophie Ryan (FM). Had a huge day, going from #5 at NXR to their #2, and rating-wise going from about a 135 to a 147. If there is any single reason as to how FM turned what could have been a decently competitive race into a blowout, it was her.
Boys (Team) MVP: Orrin Clark (Bozeman). Bozeman's #3-5 pack all ran better at nationals than they did at NXR, and that was the real story of the meet (for boys teams). In particular, though, was Orrin Clark (#5 at NXR, #4 at NXN), who was slowed late in the season due to a hip injury, but seemed to be at 100% at nationals. The best point of comparison is how Bozeman's pack did vs. Summit's #1 at Nationals, Scott Kinkade: at NXR, Kinkade ran 15:58.1 while Bozeman's #3-5 pack ran between 16:02.6-16:16.5; Kinkade ran a similar race at Nationals (one of only 2 boys to do so for Summit, along with their #6) by finishing in 16:31.0, but Bozeman's #3-5 pack all caught up to him, ranging from 16:28.5 to 16:36.6.
At a race like NXN, the teams that win are generally the teams that place the bulk of their runners ahead of the bigger packs. FM's Sophie Ryan moved from a projected #78 all the way up to #29, and Bozeman's Orrin Clark moved up from #109 up to #58. Nearly 50 spots improvement, most of which were team runners, means they were the biggest keys to the two winning teams performances today.
Quick note regarding American Fork: Some might view this as a disappointing performance for them (going into the race favored by 20-25 points over Bozeman, according to my ratings and assuming their #5 was back to normal). However, I think the Bozeman pack made far more difference than anyone from AF being a little off. AF's #4 might have been about 15 places behind where he should have been, but that was about it. With the final point difference being 36 points, it was clearly just Bozeman's day.
Saturday, December 3, 2016
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
NXN Projections - a compilation
I'm not going to do my usual in-depth look at projecting NXN, because as I said in my other post I already have a rough idea of the groupings and I am not going to take the time to refine it as much as usual this year. However, what I will do is post a quick comparison of my (VERY ROUGH) projections along with some other notable projections: Bill Meylan's over at Tullyrunners, Paul Schmitz/Adam Kopet at DyeStat (Boys/Girls), and whoever is doing the rankings these days at Milesplit.
I'll also include a little math to show the general trends/consensus, or how varying the different projections have each team finishing.
My apologies in advance for for any poor formatting. I will put in bold the teams that we all seemed to roughly agree on (teams with sample variability of < 6).
tl;dr summary:
My girls projections appear to be a bit more favorable towards the Southwest and South while slightly less optimistic for the Midwest and Southeast; Milesplit seems to be significantly higher on the Southeast and slightly lower on the Northwest than the rest of us; Meylan and DyeStat typically were closer to the median rankings.
My boys projections appear to be a bit more favorable towards the South while less optimistic towards the Northeast/New York and the Southeast; Milesplit seems to be higher on the Heartland, while DyeStat seems to be a slightly lower on the Southwest. Meylan was all over the place compared to the rest of us (probably because he looked deeper into what the teams have done the rest of the year) with regards to California.
Full breakdown:
Boys =
(Variability) | Median | Average | Team | Watchout | Meylan | DyeStat | Milesplit
(0.25) | 1.0 | 1.25 | American Fork UT = 1 | 2 | 1 | 1
(1.58) | 2.0 | 2.25 | Neuqua Valley IL = 4 | 1 | 2 | 2
(1.58) | 4.0 | 3.75 | Bozeman MT = 2 | 5 | 4 | 4
(4.67) | 4.5 | 5.00 | Brentwood TN = 5 | 4 | 3 | 8
(2.92) | 5.5 | 5.25 | Great Oak CA = 6 | 3 | 5 | 7
(2.92) | 5.5 | 5.25 | The Woodlands TX = 3 | 6 | 7 | 5
(36.92) | 6.5 | 8.25 | Christian Brothers NJ = 17 | 7 | 6 | 3
(2.00) | 8.5 | 8.00 | Wayzata MN = 8 | 9 | 9 | 6
(3.58) | 8.5 | 9.25 | Downers Grove North IL = 9 | 8 | 8 | 12
(4.00) | 11.0 | 10.00 | Summit OR = 7 | 11 | 11 | 11
(19.00) | 12.5 | 13.50 | Davis UT = 10 | 15 | 19 | 10
(7.58) | 13.5 | 13.25 | Dana Hills CA = 16 | 10 | 12 | 15
(17.67) | 14.0 | 14.50 | Liverpool NY = 15 | 13 | 10 | 20
(21.67) | 14.5 | 14.50 | St. Xavier KY = 20 | 16 | 13 | 9
(7.58) | 14.5 | 14.75 | Mahomet-Seymour IL = 18 | 12 | 16 | 13
(3.00) | 15.5 | 15.50 | Springville UT = 14 | 17 | 17 | 14
(4.92) | 16.0 | 16.25 | Staples CT = 19 | 14 | 15 | 17
(13.67) | 16.0 | 16.50 | Cathedral Catholic CA = 13 | 21 | 14 | 18
(18.00) | 18.0 | 17.00 | Southlake Carroll TX = 11 | 18 | 18 | 21
(0.92) | 19.5 | 19.75 | Fayetteville-Manlius NY = 21 | 19 | 20 | 19
(6.92) | 20.5 | 19.75 | Edina MN = 22 | 20 | 21 | 16
(25.00) | 22.0 | 19.50 | College Park TX = 12 | 22 | 22 | 22
Notes: My projections are only off of the NXR races (except The Woodlands' missing runner), while Meylan's uses a synthesis of ratings but I believe weighs most heavily on NXR and State, while the others I'm not sure. Milesplit is actual rankings rather than an NXN-only projection (I don't think they post actual NXN projections?).
CBA, Davis, Liverpool, St. Xavier, Cathedral Catholic, Southlake Carroll and College Park seem to be pretty variable depending on which projection you look at.
CBA is the most severe and is because I have them rated significantly worse than others, it seems, while Milesplit is a bit more favorable than the rest.
College Park and St. Xavier are the next most extreme; CP because I have them rated significantly higher, and St. Xavier because of a combination between Milesplit has them much higher and I have them a bit lower.
Davis, Southlake Carroll and Liverpool are also notable differences: Davis is no one seems to agree on them except Milesplit and my projections, which have them higher than the rest. Southlake Carroll looks like it is due to my rating them higher... I guess I valued the NXN South race more than others (or they are penalizing them, as well as College Park, for their poor races at State - which is very understandable). Liverpool is a slightly less extreme version of Davis, where this time Milesplit has them rated lower than everyone else and DyeStat only slightly higher than Meylan and I.
A modest difference on our views of Cathedral Catholic, with DyeStat and I having them around #13/14 while Meylan (21) and Milesplit (18) are a little lower.
Seems to be very good agreement in general beyond those teams, although Dana Hills (two around 10-12 and two at 15/16), Mahomet-Seymour (two around 12/13, two around 16-18), and Edina (three between 20-22, but Milesplit at 16) are slightly different.
General consensus notes:
The projections all pretty much agree on who is included in the top tier of (6-8) teams, with the only questions being whether or not CBA or Wayzata belong with that group. We also pretty much agree that MW#2 (DGN) and NW#2 (Summit) are mid-pack teams. It does get a bit muddy beyond those two points of agreement, though.
Girls =
(Variability) | Median | Average | Team | Watchout | Meylan | DyeStat | Milesplit
I'll also include a little math to show the general trends/consensus, or how varying the different projections have each team finishing.
My apologies in advance for for any poor formatting. I will put in bold the teams that we all seemed to roughly agree on (teams with sample variability of < 6).
tl;dr summary:
My girls projections appear to be a bit more favorable towards the Southwest and South while slightly less optimistic for the Midwest and Southeast; Milesplit seems to be significantly higher on the Southeast and slightly lower on the Northwest than the rest of us; Meylan and DyeStat typically were closer to the median rankings.
My boys projections appear to be a bit more favorable towards the South while less optimistic towards the Northeast/New York and the Southeast; Milesplit seems to be higher on the Heartland, while DyeStat seems to be a slightly lower on the Southwest. Meylan was all over the place compared to the rest of us (probably because he looked deeper into what the teams have done the rest of the year) with regards to California.
Full breakdown:
Boys =
(Variability) | Median | Average | Team | Watchout | Meylan | DyeStat | Milesplit
(0.25) | 1.0 | 1.25 | American Fork UT = 1 | 2 | 1 | 1
(1.58) | 2.0 | 2.25 | Neuqua Valley IL = 4 | 1 | 2 | 2
(1.58) | 4.0 | 3.75 | Bozeman MT = 2 | 5 | 4 | 4
(4.67) | 4.5 | 5.00 | Brentwood TN = 5 | 4 | 3 | 8
(2.92) | 5.5 | 5.25 | Great Oak CA = 6 | 3 | 5 | 7
(2.92) | 5.5 | 5.25 | The Woodlands TX = 3 | 6 | 7 | 5
(36.92) | 6.5 | 8.25 | Christian Brothers NJ = 17 | 7 | 6 | 3
(2.00) | 8.5 | 8.00 | Wayzata MN = 8 | 9 | 9 | 6
(3.58) | 8.5 | 9.25 | Downers Grove North IL = 9 | 8 | 8 | 12
(4.00) | 11.0 | 10.00 | Summit OR = 7 | 11 | 11 | 11
(19.00) | 12.5 | 13.50 | Davis UT = 10 | 15 | 19 | 10
(7.58) | 13.5 | 13.25 | Dana Hills CA = 16 | 10 | 12 | 15
(17.67) | 14.0 | 14.50 | Liverpool NY = 15 | 13 | 10 | 20
(21.67) | 14.5 | 14.50 | St. Xavier KY = 20 | 16 | 13 | 9
(7.58) | 14.5 | 14.75 | Mahomet-Seymour IL = 18 | 12 | 16 | 13
(3.00) | 15.5 | 15.50 | Springville UT = 14 | 17 | 17 | 14
(4.92) | 16.0 | 16.25 | Staples CT = 19 | 14 | 15 | 17
(13.67) | 16.0 | 16.50 | Cathedral Catholic CA = 13 | 21 | 14 | 18
(18.00) | 18.0 | 17.00 | Southlake Carroll TX = 11 | 18 | 18 | 21
(0.92) | 19.5 | 19.75 | Fayetteville-Manlius NY = 21 | 19 | 20 | 19
(6.92) | 20.5 | 19.75 | Edina MN = 22 | 20 | 21 | 16
(25.00) | 22.0 | 19.50 | College Park TX = 12 | 22 | 22 | 22
Notes: My projections are only off of the NXR races (except The Woodlands' missing runner), while Meylan's uses a synthesis of ratings but I believe weighs most heavily on NXR and State, while the others I'm not sure. Milesplit is actual rankings rather than an NXN-only projection (I don't think they post actual NXN projections?).
CBA, Davis, Liverpool, St. Xavier, Cathedral Catholic, Southlake Carroll and College Park seem to be pretty variable depending on which projection you look at.
CBA is the most severe and is because I have them rated significantly worse than others, it seems, while Milesplit is a bit more favorable than the rest.
College Park and St. Xavier are the next most extreme; CP because I have them rated significantly higher, and St. Xavier because of a combination between Milesplit has them much higher and I have them a bit lower.
Davis, Southlake Carroll and Liverpool are also notable differences: Davis is no one seems to agree on them except Milesplit and my projections, which have them higher than the rest. Southlake Carroll looks like it is due to my rating them higher... I guess I valued the NXN South race more than others (or they are penalizing them, as well as College Park, for their poor races at State - which is very understandable). Liverpool is a slightly less extreme version of Davis, where this time Milesplit has them rated lower than everyone else and DyeStat only slightly higher than Meylan and I.
A modest difference on our views of Cathedral Catholic, with DyeStat and I having them around #13/14 while Meylan (21) and Milesplit (18) are a little lower.
Seems to be very good agreement in general beyond those teams, although Dana Hills (two around 10-12 and two at 15/16), Mahomet-Seymour (two around 12/13, two around 16-18), and Edina (three between 20-22, but Milesplit at 16) are slightly different.
General consensus notes:
The projections all pretty much agree on who is included in the top tier of (6-8) teams, with the only questions being whether or not CBA or Wayzata belong with that group. We also pretty much agree that MW#2 (DGN) and NW#2 (Summit) are mid-pack teams. It does get a bit muddy beyond those two points of agreement, though.
Girls =
(Variability) | Median | Average | Team | Watchout | Meylan | DyeStat | Milesplit
(0.00) | 1.0 | 1.00 | Fayetteville-Manlius NY = 1 | 1 | 1 | 1
(0.00) | 2.0 | 2.00 | Great Oak CA = 2 | 2 | 2 | 2
(0.25) | 3.0 | 3.25 | Davis CA = 4 | 3 | 3 | 3
(8.25) | 4.5 | 5.75 | Carmel IN = 10 | 4 | 5 | 4
(1.67) | 6.5 | 6.50 | Edina MN = 6 | 8 | 7 | 5
(14.92) | 7.0 | 7.75 | Bozeman MT = 8 | 6 | 4 | 13
(3.33) | 8.0 | 8.00 | Willmar MN = 7 | 10 | 9 | 6
(8.25) | 8.5 | 7.25 | Southlake Carroll TX = 3 | 9 | 8 | 9
(8.67) | 9.0 | 9.00 | Minooka IL = 11 | 7 | 6 | 12
(8.25) | 10.5 | 9.25 | Keller TX = 5 | 11 | 11 | 10
(20.92) | 12.0 | 11.25 | Desert Vista AZ = 12 | 5 | 12 | 16
(3.33) | 13.0 | 13.00 | Naperville North IL = 15 | 12 | 14 | 11
(3.58) | 13.5 | 12.75 | Shenendehowa NY = 14 | 13 | 10 | 14
(5.58) | 14.0 | 14.75 | Sunset OR = 13 | 15 | 13 | 18
(28.67) | 14.5 | 14.00 | Blacksburg VA = 20 | 14 | 15 | 7
(23.33) | 16.5 | 15.00 | Lake Braddock VA = 19 | 16 | 17 | 8
(18.00) | 16.5 | 15.00 | Mountain Vista CO = 9 | 18 | 18 | 15
(2.00) | 16.5 | 17.00 | Palos Verdes CA = 16 | 17 | 16 | 19
(1.33) | 18.0 | 18.00 | Summit OR = 17 | 19 | 19 | 17
(1.58) | 20.0 | 19.75 | North Hunterdon NJ = 18 | 21 | 20 | 20
(0.67) | 21.0 | 21.00 | Broomfield CO = 21 | 20 | 21 | 22
(0.25) | 22.0 | 21.75 | Souhegan NH = 22 | 22 | 22 | 21
(0.00) | 2.0 | 2.00 | Great Oak CA = 2 | 2 | 2 | 2
(0.25) | 3.0 | 3.25 | Davis CA = 4 | 3 | 3 | 3
(8.25) | 4.5 | 5.75 | Carmel IN = 10 | 4 | 5 | 4
(1.67) | 6.5 | 6.50 | Edina MN = 6 | 8 | 7 | 5
(14.92) | 7.0 | 7.75 | Bozeman MT = 8 | 6 | 4 | 13
(3.33) | 8.0 | 8.00 | Willmar MN = 7 | 10 | 9 | 6
(8.25) | 8.5 | 7.25 | Southlake Carroll TX = 3 | 9 | 8 | 9
(8.67) | 9.0 | 9.00 | Minooka IL = 11 | 7 | 6 | 12
(8.25) | 10.5 | 9.25 | Keller TX = 5 | 11 | 11 | 10
(20.92) | 12.0 | 11.25 | Desert Vista AZ = 12 | 5 | 12 | 16
(3.33) | 13.0 | 13.00 | Naperville North IL = 15 | 12 | 14 | 11
(3.58) | 13.5 | 12.75 | Shenendehowa NY = 14 | 13 | 10 | 14
(5.58) | 14.0 | 14.75 | Sunset OR = 13 | 15 | 13 | 18
(28.67) | 14.5 | 14.00 | Blacksburg VA = 20 | 14 | 15 | 7
(23.33) | 16.5 | 15.00 | Lake Braddock VA = 19 | 16 | 17 | 8
(18.00) | 16.5 | 15.00 | Mountain Vista CO = 9 | 18 | 18 | 15
(2.00) | 16.5 | 17.00 | Palos Verdes CA = 16 | 17 | 16 | 19
(1.33) | 18.0 | 18.00 | Summit OR = 17 | 19 | 19 | 17
(1.58) | 20.0 | 19.75 | North Hunterdon NJ = 18 | 21 | 20 | 20
(0.67) | 21.0 | 21.00 | Broomfield CO = 21 | 20 | 21 | 22
(0.25) | 22.0 | 21.75 | Souhegan NH = 22 | 22 | 22 | 21
Notes: My projections are only off of the NXR races, while Meylan's uses a synthesis of ratings but I believe weighs most heavily on NXR and State, while the others I'm not sure. Milesplit is actual rankings rather than an NXN-only projection (I don't think they post actual NXN projections?).
Blacksburg, Lake Braddock, Desert Vista, and to a lesser extent Mountain Vista and Bozeman are pretty variable. Minooka, Southlake Carroll, Keller, Carmel, and to an extent Sunset are somewhat variable but relatively stable. Lots of agreement beyond that.
Blacksburg is due to vast differences between Milesplit (#7) and myself (20), with both Meylan and DyeStat about halfway between (#14 and 15).
Lake Braddock is due to Milesplit (#8) significantly ahead of the rest of us: myself at #19, though Meylan (16) and DyeStat (17) not much different.
Desert Vista is mostly due to Meylan being notably higher on them (#5), and to be honest if I was looking at more than just their NXR race I would probably agree with him. However, as it is I have them at #12, which is similar to DyeStat (12) and Milesplit (16).
Mountain Vista looks to be down to me being higher on them (#9) than the rest (#15, 18 and 18).
Bozeman got a pretty wide variety, although if the others have a similar tier of teams as I do (Meylan pretty much does: for example, I have Bozeman at roughly 255 points and he has them at 246, so pretty slight difference on them but a bigger difference on the Heartland and especially South teams) then the only "notable" outlier is Milesplit at #13.
The other somewhat notable differences is mainly the two South teams (I have them finishing higher than the rest) and Minooka (Milesplit and I have them around #11/12, while Meylan/DyeStat have them at #6/7). Carmel is also a big difference, though that is just my ranking - I'm assuming the difference is due to whether or not we include Sarah Leinheiser (who has been dealing with an apparent foot injury). I didn't include her in the projections, and Meylan included her as their #5
General consensus notes:
The projections all pretty much agree on who is included in the top tier of (3-4) teams, with the only questions being whether or not Southlake Carroll belong with that group (FWIW, I am the outlier as I have them scoring in the 180s to being neck and neck with Davis). There also seems to be a general agreement on the rest of the field as well: even most of the highly variable teams mentioned above look to be roughly in the same tiers, with the only exceptions beyond the Southeast (milesplit is higher), Southwest (mixed bag) and South (I'm higher) teams. Very good agreement on the lower tier of teams. Much better consensus overall this year than in the boys race.
Blacksburg, Lake Braddock, Desert Vista, and to a lesser extent Mountain Vista and Bozeman are pretty variable. Minooka, Southlake Carroll, Keller, Carmel, and to an extent Sunset are somewhat variable but relatively stable. Lots of agreement beyond that.
Blacksburg is due to vast differences between Milesplit (#7) and myself (20), with both Meylan and DyeStat about halfway between (#14 and 15).
Lake Braddock is due to Milesplit (#8) significantly ahead of the rest of us: myself at #19, though Meylan (16) and DyeStat (17) not much different.
Desert Vista is mostly due to Meylan being notably higher on them (#5), and to be honest if I was looking at more than just their NXR race I would probably agree with him. However, as it is I have them at #12, which is similar to DyeStat (12) and Milesplit (16).
Mountain Vista looks to be down to me being higher on them (#9) than the rest (#15, 18 and 18).
Bozeman got a pretty wide variety, although if the others have a similar tier of teams as I do (Meylan pretty much does: for example, I have Bozeman at roughly 255 points and he has them at 246, so pretty slight difference on them but a bigger difference on the Heartland and especially South teams) then the only "notable" outlier is Milesplit at #13.
The other somewhat notable differences is mainly the two South teams (I have them finishing higher than the rest) and Minooka (Milesplit and I have them around #11/12, while Meylan/DyeStat have them at #6/7). Carmel is also a big difference, though that is just my ranking - I'm assuming the difference is due to whether or not we include Sarah Leinheiser (who has been dealing with an apparent foot injury). I didn't include her in the projections, and Meylan included her as their #5
General consensus notes:
The projections all pretty much agree on who is included in the top tier of (3-4) teams, with the only questions being whether or not Southlake Carroll belong with that group (FWIW, I am the outlier as I have them scoring in the 180s to being neck and neck with Davis). There also seems to be a general agreement on the rest of the field as well: even most of the highly variable teams mentioned above look to be roughly in the same tiers, with the only exceptions beyond the Southeast (milesplit is higher), Southwest (mixed bag) and South (I'm higher) teams. Very good agreement on the lower tier of teams. Much better consensus overall this year than in the boys race.
Sunday, November 27, 2016
VERY ROUGH preliminary NXN outlook
Figured I might as well post a ROUGH outlook for NXN. I'm not including scores, because this is based on ROUGH estimates for most of the regional courses. While good enough to put them in their proper tiers, their placement within their tiers is very suspect. Also, I would like to include more than just their regional races (the below only used regional races except the Woodlands TX boys, where I added their missing #1 from his State Meet race). I will see about being more specific, and include rough scoring, if I have time later this week. EDIT: I'll just leave these as is... they aren't as well refined as my usual projections, and they aren't specific enough as to show exactly how close I think the teams are, but they give the general idea of roughly what group each team seems to belongs to (according to their races at NXR).
Boys:
1 American Fork UT
2 Bozeman MT
3 The Woodlands TX (assuming their #1 is back in their lineup)
4 Neuqua Valley IL
5 Brentwood TN
6 Great Oak CA
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7 Summit OR
8 Wayzata MN
9 Downers Grove North IL
10 Davis UT
11 Southlake Carroll TX
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12 College Park TX
13 Cathedral Catholic CA
14 Springville UT
15 Liverpool NY
16 Dana Hills CA
17 Christian Brothers Academy NJ
18 Mahomet-Seymour IL
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19 Staples CT
20 St. Xavier KY
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21 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
22 Edina MN
Notes: American Fork's trio is just too good. Going just by their regional race, it should actually be a close race (about 30-35 points separating #1 from #5), but if their #5 runs as well as they did at the Utah State meet, they should be a 20-25 point favorite over Bozeman. Great Oak is slightly closer to Summit than they are to Brentwood, but included them in the top tier because they were closer to the rest of that tier than most of the teams in the second tier. Edina and Fayetteville-Manlius are both teams that tend to run well at NXN, and normally that would mean I'd be giving them a bump within their own tier... but they are kind of sitting in a tier of their own, which makes that a bit more difficult. Would not be surprised if they both beat St. Xavier and possibly Staples based on that alone, though I think CBA and probably Mahomet-Seymour are just a little too far ahead to make up that ground in the national field. However, if they have a good race and CBA/MS don't run well, it is definitely still a possibility. The Woodlands has their best team yet, and it has been dominant throughout the year, however their NXR meet shows just how fragile a US Top-5 team can be if just a couple athletes are off (their #1 was missing, and their #4/5 finishers were a little off, but the rest of their usual Top 4 ran well and yet they still finished a bit behind mid-pack NXN teams).
Girls:
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
2 Great Oak CA
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3 Southlake Carroll TX
4 Davis CA
5 Keller TX
6 Edina MN
7 Willmar MN
8 Bozeman MT
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9 Mountain Vista CO
10 Carmel IN
11 Minooka IL
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12 Desert Vista AZ
13 Sunset OR
14 Shenendehowa NY
15 Naperville North IL
16 Palos Verdes CA
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17 Summit OR
18 North Hunterdon NJ
19 Lake Braddock VA
20 Blacksburg VA
21 Broomfield CO
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22 Souhegan NH
Notes: Yes, once again, the usual suspects at the top. Fayetteville-Manlius has the edge here even before you consider how well they typically run at NXN, but Great Oak is close enough to make things very interesting. The battle for the other podium finish, if the top two teams run well, is also looking to be very close: Davis was second last year, Southlake Carroll has had a few teams do very well in the past, Keller won the Texas 6A State title over SLC, and Edina looks very much in contention with all of those teams. Willmar and Bozeman look to be slightly behind the rest of that tier, but are closer to Edina and Keller than they are the trio in the next group, and aren't so far behind that a good day for them could make up all that difference. The two most interesting teams to me that seem to be "mid pack" teams are Desert Vista and Sunset, both for different reasons. Desert Vista is a team that looked incredible during most of the season, but came up flat at their NXR meet. They ran well at NXN a few years ago, placing a very strong fifth in their lone appearance in 2014 (and, much like this year, was a team that ran well throughout the season, had a bit of an off race at NXR, but then they came through with a great race at nationals). Similarly, Sunset is a team that exceeded expectations last time they were at NXN, when they finished seventh but within shouting distance of fifth place last year. However, their journey as well as their strengths and weaknesses this year are vastly different than Desert Vista. Sunset, who started the season slower than the other nationally elite teams, has come on very strong to close out their season. They have a trio of runners that have gone 17:40 or faster, including an NXN Top-10 returner in Ember Stratton. Desert Vista, on the other hand, has a pack that has been within 40 seconds of eachother and starts about where Sunset's trio ends. In a dual meet, Sunset would win just on the strength of their front runners, but in an invitational meet Desert Vista begins to have a stronger advantage. Due to their front running prowess and a fast improving #4, Sunset has the potential to challenge for a Top-10 finish, although just as easily could finish just outside the top 15. Desert Vista is a team that, if all their athletes run well, could destroy any projections based on their NXR race and be a strong threat to finish with the #3-8 group.
Also, as a bonus, here are the top individual ratings from NXR that I am currently using. Again, these are very rough (outside of NW, and to a lesser extent MW and SO) so take them as GENERAL ratings.... should be within 1-2 points though, and obviously some of the individuals probably weren't pushed as significantly as others at their regional races (case in point, SE Champs Brodey Hastey and Kate Murphy). One thing to note: this year's individual field was MUCH stronger at their NXR races than previous years. In advance of NXN last year, I mentioned that there were 13 girls at 150+ and 16 boys at 194+ while this year there are 24 girls at 150+ and 41 at 194+ ... of course, I assumed that all individuals who qualified for NXN chose to accept the invite instead of opt for Footlocker, which may be more true than usual considering how many of the top athletes were choosing NXN this year, but there is always the possibility that someone turned down their invite to either run FLW or focus on Footlocker Nationals instead.
Also, as an added bonus, since there are plenty out there who don't know how good a rating XXX.XX is, I'll include the 3200m/3k equivalents to provide a greater perspective on the caliber of performance they had (according to my ratings). However, keep in mind, this might not always reflect what the athletes have/will run for 3200m: some are bound to be better at longer distances or are stronger on varying surfaces (e.g. they might be considered to be "better hill runners"), or visa versa.
Team runners are in bold.
Boys Top 35 Individuals - NXR Ratings only
*Hunsdale's mark is actually from the Texas State meet, as he did not run at NXN-South.
Girls Top 35 Individuals - NXR Ratings only
Boys:
1 American Fork UT
2 Bozeman MT
3 The Woodlands TX (assuming their #1 is back in their lineup)
4 Neuqua Valley IL
5 Brentwood TN
6 Great Oak CA
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7 Summit OR
8 Wayzata MN
9 Downers Grove North IL
10 Davis UT
11 Southlake Carroll TX
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12 College Park TX
13 Cathedral Catholic CA
14 Springville UT
15 Liverpool NY
16 Dana Hills CA
17 Christian Brothers Academy NJ
18 Mahomet-Seymour IL
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19 Staples CT
20 St. Xavier KY
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21 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
22 Edina MN
Notes: American Fork's trio is just too good. Going just by their regional race, it should actually be a close race (about 30-35 points separating #1 from #5), but if their #5 runs as well as they did at the Utah State meet, they should be a 20-25 point favorite over Bozeman. Great Oak is slightly closer to Summit than they are to Brentwood, but included them in the top tier because they were closer to the rest of that tier than most of the teams in the second tier. Edina and Fayetteville-Manlius are both teams that tend to run well at NXN, and normally that would mean I'd be giving them a bump within their own tier... but they are kind of sitting in a tier of their own, which makes that a bit more difficult. Would not be surprised if they both beat St. Xavier and possibly Staples based on that alone, though I think CBA and probably Mahomet-Seymour are just a little too far ahead to make up that ground in the national field. However, if they have a good race and CBA/MS don't run well, it is definitely still a possibility. The Woodlands has their best team yet, and it has been dominant throughout the year, however their NXR meet shows just how fragile a US Top-5 team can be if just a couple athletes are off (their #1 was missing, and their #4/5 finishers were a little off, but the rest of their usual Top 4 ran well and yet they still finished a bit behind mid-pack NXN teams).
Girls:
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
2 Great Oak CA
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3 Southlake Carroll TX
4 Davis CA
5 Keller TX
6 Edina MN
7 Willmar MN
8 Bozeman MT
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9 Mountain Vista CO
10 Carmel IN
11 Minooka IL
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12 Desert Vista AZ
13 Sunset OR
14 Shenendehowa NY
15 Naperville North IL
16 Palos Verdes CA
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17 Summit OR
18 North Hunterdon NJ
19 Lake Braddock VA
20 Blacksburg VA
21 Broomfield CO
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22 Souhegan NH
Notes: Yes, once again, the usual suspects at the top. Fayetteville-Manlius has the edge here even before you consider how well they typically run at NXN, but Great Oak is close enough to make things very interesting. The battle for the other podium finish, if the top two teams run well, is also looking to be very close: Davis was second last year, Southlake Carroll has had a few teams do very well in the past, Keller won the Texas 6A State title over SLC, and Edina looks very much in contention with all of those teams. Willmar and Bozeman look to be slightly behind the rest of that tier, but are closer to Edina and Keller than they are the trio in the next group, and aren't so far behind that a good day for them could make up all that difference. The two most interesting teams to me that seem to be "mid pack" teams are Desert Vista and Sunset, both for different reasons. Desert Vista is a team that looked incredible during most of the season, but came up flat at their NXR meet. They ran well at NXN a few years ago, placing a very strong fifth in their lone appearance in 2014 (and, much like this year, was a team that ran well throughout the season, had a bit of an off race at NXR, but then they came through with a great race at nationals). Similarly, Sunset is a team that exceeded expectations last time they were at NXN, when they finished seventh but within shouting distance of fifth place last year. However, their journey as well as their strengths and weaknesses this year are vastly different than Desert Vista. Sunset, who started the season slower than the other nationally elite teams, has come on very strong to close out their season. They have a trio of runners that have gone 17:40 or faster, including an NXN Top-10 returner in Ember Stratton. Desert Vista, on the other hand, has a pack that has been within 40 seconds of eachother and starts about where Sunset's trio ends. In a dual meet, Sunset would win just on the strength of their front runners, but in an invitational meet Desert Vista begins to have a stronger advantage. Due to their front running prowess and a fast improving #4, Sunset has the potential to challenge for a Top-10 finish, although just as easily could finish just outside the top 15. Desert Vista is a team that, if all their athletes run well, could destroy any projections based on their NXR race and be a strong threat to finish with the #3-8 group.
Also, as a bonus, here are the top individual ratings from NXR that I am currently using. Again, these are very rough (outside of NW, and to a lesser extent MW and SO) so take them as GENERAL ratings.... should be within 1-2 points though, and obviously some of the individuals probably weren't pushed as significantly as others at their regional races (case in point, SE Champs Brodey Hastey and Kate Murphy). One thing to note: this year's individual field was MUCH stronger at their NXR races than previous years. In advance of NXN last year, I mentioned that there were 13 girls at 150+ and 16 boys at 194+ while this year there are 24 girls at 150+ and 41 at 194+ ... of course, I assumed that all individuals who qualified for NXN chose to accept the invite instead of opt for Footlocker, which may be more true than usual considering how many of the top athletes were choosing NXN this year, but there is always the possibility that someone turned down their invite to either run FLW or focus on Footlocker Nationals instead.
Also, as an added bonus, since there are plenty out there who don't know how good a rating XXX.XX is, I'll include the 3200m/3k equivalents to provide a greater perspective on the caliber of performance they had (according to my ratings). However, keep in mind, this might not always reflect what the athletes have/will run for 3200m: some are bound to be better at longer distances or are stronger on varying surfaces (e.g. they might be considered to be "better hill runners"), or visa versa.
Team runners are in bold.
Boys Top 35 Individuals - NXR Ratings only
- 205.64 - Casey Clinger - American Fork UT - (SW #1) - 8:47.21 / 8:11.07
- 203.87 - David Principe - Unattached RI - (NE #1) - 8:50.38 / 8:14.02
- 203.57 - Finn Gessner - Unattached WI - (HL #1) - 8:50.92 / 8:14.52
- 203.57 - Seth Hirsch - Unattached NE - (HL #2) - 8:50.92 / 8:14.52
- 200.86 - McKay Johns - American Fork UT - (SW #2) - 8:55.77 / 8:19.04
- 200.33 - James Mwaura - Unattached WA - (NW #1) - 8:56.72 / 8:19.93
- 200.18 - Sam Worley - Unattached TX - (SO #1) - 8:56.99 / 8:20.18
- 199.97 - Luis Grijalva - Unattached CA - (CA #1) - 8:57.37 / 8:20.53
- 199.85 - Reed Brown - Southlake Carroll TX - (SO #2) - 8:57.58 / 8:20.73
- 199.82 - Daniel Bernal - Unattached TX - (SO #3) - 8:57.63 / 8:20.78
- 199.68 - Alex Maier - Unattached TX - (SO #4) - 8:57.89 / 8:21.01
- 199.46 - Milo Greder - Unattached NE - (HL #3) - 8:58.28 / 8:21.38
- 199.31 - Patrick Parker - American Fork UT - (SW #3) - 8:58.55 / 8:21.63
- 199.22 - Daniel Viegra - Unattached TX - (SO #5) - 8:58.71 / 8:21.78
- 198.62 - Seth Eliason - Unattached MN - (HL #4) - 8:59.78 / 8:22.78
- 198.58 - Brodey Hasty - Brentwood TN - (SE #1) - 8:59.86 / 8:22.85
- 198.58 - Alex Miley - Unattached MN - (HL #5) - 8:59.86 / 8:22.85
- 198.53 - Chase Equall - Bozeman MT - (NW #2) - 8:59.94 / 8:22.93
- 198.51 - Danny Kilrea - Unattached IL - (MW #1) - 8:59.98 / 8:22.96
- 198.48 - Joe Benson - Unattached UT - (SW #4) - 9:00.03 / 8:23.01
- 197.84 - Micahel Vernau - Unattached CA - (CA #2) - 9:01.18 / 8:24.08
- 197.56 - Isaac Green - Unattached CO - (SW #5) - 9:01.68 / 8:24.55
- 197.51 - Callum Bolger - Unattached CA - (CA #3) - 9:01.77 / 8:24.63
- 197.32 - Dylan Jacobs - Unattached IL - (MW #2) - 9:02.11 / 8:24.95
- 197.32 - Jack Aho - Unattached IL - (MW #3) - 9:02.11 / 8:24.95
- 197.13 - Cooper Teare - Unattached CA - (CA #4) - 9:02.45 / 8:25.26
- 196.26 - Connor O'Neill - Unattached TX - (SO #6) - 9:04.01 / 8:26.72
- 196.14 - Jordan Lesansee - Unattached NM - (SW #6) - 9:04.23 / 8:26.92
- 196.06 - Ty Brownlow - Liverpool NY - (NY #1) - 9:04.37 / 8:27.05
- 195.78 - Tanner Norman - Unattached CO - (SW #7) - 9:04.87 / 8:27.52
- 195.70 - Dustin Horter - Unattached OH - (MW #4) - 9:05.01 / 8:27.65
- *195.69 - William Hunsdale - The Woodlands TX - (SO #7) - 9:05.03 / 8:27.67
- 195.52 - Erik Gonzalez - Unattached CA - (CA #5) - 9:05.34 / 8:27.95
- 195.42 - Ben Varghese - Unattached TN - (SE #2) - 9:05.51 / 8:28.12
- 195.35 - Nathan Lawler - Unattached NY - (NY #2) - 9:05.64 / 8:28.23
*Hunsdale's mark is actually from the Texas State meet, as he did not run at NXN-South.
Girls Top 35 Individuals - NXR Ratings only
- 164.96 - Brie Oakley - Unattached CO - (SW #1) - 10:00.07 / 9:18.93
- 161.24 - Claudia Lane - Unattached CA - (CA #1) - 10:06.73 / 9:25.14
- 159.79 - Molly Born - Unattached KS - (HL #1) - 10:09.33 / 9:27.56
- 158.03 - Allie Schadler - Unattached AZ - (SW #2) - 10:12.48 / 9:30.49
- 158.00 - Annie Hill - Unattached MT - (NW #1) - 10:12.54 / 9:30.54
- 157.53 - Emily Venters - Unattached KS - (HL #2) - 10:13.38 / 9:31.33
- 157.18 - Lauren Gregory - Unattached CO - (SW #3) - 10:14.00 / 9:31.91
- 156.76 - Lexy Halladay - Unattached ID - (NW #2) - 10:14.76 / 9:32.61
- 156.62 - Grace Ping - Unattached UT - (SW #4) - 10:15.01 / 9:32.85
- 156.52 - Katherine Lee - Unattached NY - (NY #1) - 10:15.19 / 9:33.01
- 156.04 - Anna Fenske - Unattached MN - (HL #3) - 10:16.05 / 9:33.81
- 155.51 - Ember Stratton - Sunset OR - (NW #3) - 10:17.00 / 9:34.70
- 153.87 - Anna Gibson - Unattached WY - (NW #4) - 10:19.93 / 9:37.43
- 153.40 - Katelynne Hart - Unattached IL - (MW #1) - 10:20.77 / 9:38.22
- 152.84 - London Culbreath - Unattached TX - (SO #1) - 10:21.78 / 9:39.15
- 152.65 - Kelsey Chmiel - Unattached NY - (NY #2) - 10:22.12 / 9:39.47
- 152.55 - India Johnson - Unattached OH - (MW #2) - 10:22.30 / 9:39.64
- 152.01 - Anne Forsyth - Unattached MI - (MW #3) - 10:23.26 / 9:40.54
- 152.00 - Claire Walters - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - (NY #3) - 10:23.28 / 9:40.55
- 151.90 - Tiahna Vladic - Unattached MT - (NW #5) - 10:23.46 / 9:40.72
- 151.80 - Katherine Murphy - Lake Braddock VA - (SE #1) - 10:23.64 / 9:40.89
- 151.53 - Karly Ackley - Unattached ND - (HL #4) - 10:24.12 / 9:41.34
- 151.47 - Anna Sophia Keller - Unattached IL - (MW #4) - 10:24.23 / 9:41.44
- 150.04 - Ashton Endsley - Unattached TX - (SO #2) - 10:26.79 / 9:43.82
- 149.63 - Quinn McConnell - Unattached CO - (SW #5) - 10:27.53 / 9:44.51
- 149.16 - Jessica Lawson - Unattached NY - (NY #4) - 10:28.37 / 9:45.29
- 148.68 - Aislinn Devlin - Unattached PA - (NE #1) - 10:29.23 / 9:46.09
- 148.66 - Lauren Peterson - Unattached MN - (HL #5) - 10:29.26 / 9:46.13
- 148.19 - Taylor Roe - Unattached WA - (NW #6) - 10:30.11 / 9:46.91
- 148.06 - Annika Sleenhof - Unattached TN - (SE #2) - 10:30.34 / 9:47.13
- 148.02 - Abbey Santoro - Keller TX - (SO #3) - 10:30.41 / 9:47.19
- 147.83 - Elizabeth Reneau - Unattached TX - (SO #4) - 10:30.75 / 9:47.51
- 147.55 - Elizabeth Chittenden - Unattached CA - (CA #2) - 10:31.25 / 9:47.98
- 147.38 - Erika Adler - Unattached CA - (CA #3) - 10:31.56 / 9:48.26
- 147.18 - Sara Leonard - Unattached CA - (CA #4) - 10:31.91 / 9:48.59
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