Previously, I discussed the foundation of the changes to make the WIAA more competitive at the state qualifier and state championship level. In this post, I'll delve into a more concrete example: how this year's Cross Country field might have unfolded. Keep in mind, with the reduction from 6 classes to 4, the closest equivalents will be 4A = Division 1 and 2A = Division 2. I'm not going to simulate the Division 3/4 fields (2 divisions worth will be plenty of reading). Yesterday, I looked at the boys field, so here is the girls comparison.
Important note: all of the following will be using the
best performance ratings from the League, District/Regional and State Championship meets only. In order to continue the apples-to-apples comparison as best as I can, I will use the same ratings when referring to the teams and athletes that did qualify this year.
First off, a quick breakdown: these are roughly how the regional team races would have unfolded.
D1 Region 1 (4 to state):
59 Glacier Peak, 80 Edmonds-Woodway, 96 Kamiak, 114 Lake Stevens, 157 Snohomish, 170 Arlington, 178 Shorewood, 179 Monroe, 192 Henry Jackson, 234 Mariner, 264 Mount Vernon, 316 Marysville-Getchell, 363 Cascade-Everett, 404 Meadowdale
D1 Region 2 (6 to state):
55 Issaquah, 135 Redmond, 136 Ballard, 141 Mount Si, 145 Tahoma, 175 Hazen, 215 Eastlake, 225 Interlake, 231 Garfield, 259 Roosevelt, 263 Skyline, 318 Thomas Jefferson, 332 Enumclaw, 351 Kent Meridian, 358 Federal Way, 417 Kennedy Catholic, 462 Auburn Mountainview, 469 Auburn Riverside, 521 Mount Rainier, 538 Kentridge
D1 Region 3 (5 to state):
50 Camas, 121 Bellarmine Prep, 149 Skyview, 163 South Kitsap, 169 Curtis, 187 Union, 205 Stadium, 248 Puyallup, 253 Olympia, 283 Bethel, 295 Emerald Ridge, 343 Rogers-Puyallup, 381 Kelso, 381 Gig Harbor, 382 Lincoln, 384 Mountain View, 423 Fort Vancouver, 430 Sumner, 449 Battle Ground, 556 Timberline
D1 Region 4 (5 to state):
75 Central Valley, 90 Lewis & Clark, 118 Mead, 135 North Central, 167 Hanford, 189 Kamiakin, 200 Eisenhower, 200 Mount Spokane, 274 Gonzaga Prep, 275 A.C. Davis, 315 Joel Ferris, 331 University, 369 Southridge, 382 Richland, 441 Kennewick, 443 Wenatchee, 446 Wall Walla, 451 West Valley-Yakima, 465 Eastmont, 468 Moses Lake
D2 Region 1 (7 to state):
73 Holy Names Academy, 170 Sehome, 171 Liberty-Issaquah, 172 Shorecrest, 199 Bishop Blanchet, 200 Lake Washington, 214 Bainbridge, 227 Ingraham, 254 Mercer Island, 269 Eastside Catholic, 275 Anacortes, 278 Bellingham, 309 Lakeside-Seattle, 313 Mountlake Terrace, 316 Seattle Prep, 320 Stanwood, 402 Oak Harbor, 426 Lynnwood, 449 Squalicum, 527 Sedro-Woolley
D2 Region 2 (6 to state):
60 Peninsula, 63 Central Kitsap, 158 White River, 159 Port Angeles, 178 Lindbergh, 178 Steilacoom, 192 Sequim, 251 Woodrow Wilson, 284 Lakes, 290 Orting, 292 Franklin Pierce, 321 Highline, 333 Eatonville, 355 Renton, 362 Fife, 403 North Kitsap, 417 Bonney Lake, 430 Washington, 436 Kingston, 505 Olympic
D2 Region 3 (4 to state):
60 Capital, 114 Washougal, 119 Ridgefield, 125 Tumwater, 176 Centralia, 188 Prairie, 196 Columbia River, 201 Hockinson, 232 Black Hills, 264 W.F. West, 283 Shelton, 296 Hudson's Bay, 324 R.A. Long, 334 North Thurston, 393 Mark Morris, 411 Aberdeen
D2 Region 4 (3 to state):
48 Selah, 60 Pullman, 76 Ellensburg, 100 West Valley-Spokane, 131 Cheney, 150 East Valley-Spokane, 182 Ephrata, 217 Prosser, 252 Quincy, 271 Wapato, 290 East Valley-Spokane, 362 Othello
Notes: There are in effect 8 less teams than actually qualified to state, and the vast majority of those teams that would no longer qualify were not that competitive at the state level: 4A was pretty competitive, but 2 of the last 3 finishers wouldn't make the cut anymore. Four of the last five teams in 3A wouldn't qualify, and 2 of the last 4 teams in 2A wouldn't qualify. At the Division 2 level, the strongest regions remain the strongest by far, though that is a problem with the other two regions just not being competitive no matter how you change the scene - however, by making their regional races bigger and tougher, perhaps in time they would begin to catch up (increased competition leading to improved results in the long run).
Here is the hypothetical scoring of these two state meets:
Division 1 =
- 133 - Issaquah - 19:05.14
- 143 - Camas - 19:04.58
- 156 - Central Valley - 19:08.61
- 162 - Glacier Peak - 19:16.39
- 189 - Edmonds-Woodway - 19:13.54
- 192 - Lewis and Clark - 19:10.93
- 245 - Mead* - 19:33.42
- 254 - Kamiak - 19:34.39
- 263 - Mt Si - 19:33.32
- 282 - North Central* - 19:35.11
- 284 - Tahoma - 19:39.74
- 289 - Ballard - 19:48.38
- 292 - Redmond - 19:49.48
- 312 - Bellarmine Prep - 19:48.99
- 319 - Hazen - 19:48.39
- 322 - Skyview - 19:51.50
- 335 - Lake Stevens* - 19:38.21
- 350 - Hanford* - 19:59.08
- 405 - South Kitsap - 20:09.47
- 433 - Curtis - 20:13.56
Division 2 =
- 81 - Holy Names Academy - 19:00.40
- 173 - Liberty (Issaquah) - 19:45.85
- 174 - Sehome - 19:41.72
- 174 - Shorecrest - 19:46.02
- 176 - Selah - 19:47.70
- 195 - Pullman - 19:46.00
- 198 - Bishop Blanchet - 19:54.55
- 203 - Lake Washington - 19:55.18
- 220 - Peninsula - 20:00.18
- 224 - Bainbridge - 20:02.80
- 227 - Central Kitsap - 20:01.53
- 244 - Ellensburg - 20:01.52
- 322 - Capital - 20:29.87
- 390 - Lindbergh - 21:10.67
- 396 - White River - 21:07.36
- 399 - Port Angeles - 21:03.62
- 430 - Washougal - 21:06.08
- 435 - Ridgefield - 21:11.47
- 481 - Tumwater - 21:17.38
- 529 - Steilacoom - 21:37.45
Asterisk denotes the team did not qualify this fall in the current system.
Looking at how the regional races would be projected to unfold, it would probably be possible to use the exact number of starting boxes as they used at the meet with an individual qualifier factor of 4 (meaning if a region qualifies 5 teams, they send 20 individuals). The four races I looked at would have projected 29-36 individuals to qualify with that ratio (meaning 5-6 individuals per box, as there were 26 starting boxes this year).
Here is a chart similar to one I used earlier, looking at the final qualifiers from each region and comparing that to the actual qualifiers from this year's system. As mentioned before, for both the actual qualifiers and projected qualifiers these are using the best races from the state series (League through State).
Individual - Team - Qualifier (Teams/Individuals) - 3200m Equivalents
104.4 103.0 D1-1 (4/16) 11:48.6 11:51.1
101.3 98.5 D1-2 (6/24) 11:54.1 11:59.1
100.0 91.1 D1-3 (5/20) 11:56.5 12:12.4
104.8 95.9 D1-4 (5/20) 11:47.9 12:03.7
102.6 97.3 D2-1 (7/28) 11:51.8 12:01.3
80.6 62.8 D2-2 (6/24) 12:31.1 13:03.1
74.3 69.6 D2-3 (4/16) 12:42.4 12:51.0
93.1 95.1 D2-4 (3/12) 12:08.7 12:05.2
102.8 104.2 4A-1 (2/14) 11:51.4 11:48.8
90.3 100.3 4A-2 (2/14) 12:13.8 11:55.9
86.4 91.0 4A SW (8/56) 12:20.8 12:12.5
71.6 83.9 4A-6 (2/14) 12:47.3 12:25.3
106.1 112.2 4A ER (2/14) 11:45.5 11:34.7
84.0 86.3 3A-1 (4/28) 12:25.1 12:20.9
90.8 94.5 3A-2 (7/49) 12:12.8 12:06.2
78.4 77.3 3A SW (5/35) 12:35.2 12:37.1
85.2 92.4 2A NW (3/21) 12:22.9 12:10.0
41.4 49.8 2A-3 (6/42) 13:41.4 13:26.4
61.2 69.5 2A-4 (3/21) 13:06.0 12:51.0
73.6 83.2 2A ER (4/28) 12:43.7 12:26.5
Notes: (in the following, I will be referring to the caliber of performances in 3200m terms instead of performance ratings, because that is generally easier to communicate to those that may not have followed me for very long)
Just like in the boys, the difference between the regions is much less pronounced in the divisional & regional format at the Division 1 level. The girls final individuals are all around 11:45-11:55, whereas in 4A the top two regions are around 11:45-11:50, but the weakest is around 12:45-12:50 and the other two are between 12:10-12:20. WESCO becomes tougher to qualify out of, but still not as tough as the Eastern Regional, while the weakest areas in the state are suddenly on par with the best!
For the teams, again a big improvement, though this time mostly because the toughest region (Eastern Regional) becomes much more manageable. WESCO and KingCo are roughly the same to qualify out of (11:50/12:00 instead of 11:50/11:55), but Eastern Regional takes closer to a 12:05 average instead of 11:35, while the weakest region remains the same as it was before.
Division 2 individuals becomes more equitable, but also significantly more difficult - even for the top regions. The Northwest region took about a 12:23 to qualify this year, but with the realignment it would be about an 11:50 - on par with the Division 1 regions. The Eastern Regional would also be very tough, at 12:09 instead of a 12:44. The Southwest regional didn't really improve that much in comparison, going from a 13:06 to a 12:42, however the District 3 region did as they see the biggest jump of all, going from a 13:41 to a 12:31.
For Division 2 teams, the difference isn't as noticeable as it is with the guys or with Division 1. The toughest regions get tougher, with the Northwest going from a 12:10 average to a 12:01 and Eastern Regional dropping from a 12:26 to a 12:05. One of the weakest regions, the Southwest, remained the same (they got 1 more spot to state, and one of the 3A teams would have won the region), however the weakest region (District 3) did almost catch up to the Southwest, going from a 13:26 to a 13:03. A net positive, but not as extreme as the other situations.
This illustrates one of the main reasons why I would like to see the format change: the girls races are so very watered down, and that becomes very noticeable even on the individual level once you get down to 2A and 1A. By consolidating classes, the fields get more competitive with eachother (obviously), which leads to better races and better results. The disparity in the caliber of teams between the regions would still remain, but the individual side becomes much tougher, and those weakest regions get more competitive within their own region, hopefully enough to help them begin to catch the stronger areas of the state in time.
That's the conclusion of my rant. If you bothered to read it all, thanks! I doubt anything will change, but at least I voiced my thoughts on the matter.
