Yearly Rant - Improving the WIAA, part 4

Previously, I discussed the foundation of the changes to make the WIAA more competitive at the state qualifier and state championship level. In this post, I'll delve into a more concrete example: how this year's Cross Country field might have unfolded. Keep in mind, with the reduction from 6 classes to 4, the closest equivalents will be 4A = Division 1 and 2A = Division 2. I'm not going to simulate the Division 3/4 fields (2 divisions worth will be plenty of reading). Today, I will limit the comparison to the boys field, with the girls field coming tomorrow.

Important note: all of the following will be using the best performance ratings from the League, District/Regional and State Championship meets only. In order to continue the apples-to-apples comparison as best as I can, I will use the same ratings when referring to the teams and athletes that did qualify this year.

First off, a quick breakdown: these are roughly how the regional team races would have unfolded.

D1 Region 1 (4 to state): 63 Glacier Peak, 67 Henry Jackson, 92 Lake Stevens, 113 Arlington, 114 Edmonds-Woodway, 119 Snohomish, 193 Marysville Getchell, 233 Shorewood, 248 Kamiak, 293 Meadowdale, 312 Mount Vernon, 341 Monroe, 348 Cascade, 443 Mariner, 444 Ferndale

D1 Region 2 (6 to state): 89 Tahoma, 107 Interlake, 123 Skyline, 125 Issaquah, 160 Redmond, 162 Ballard, 198 Mount Si, 208 Garfield, 249 Inglemoor, 277 Kentridge, 278 Roosevelt, 301 Auburn Riverside, 359 Kentwood, 379 Thomas Jefferson, 400 Todd Beamer, 401 Enumclaw, 492 Kentlake, 494 Auburn Mountainview, 508 Kennedy Catholic, 548 Hazen

D1 Region 3 (5 to state): 44 Bellarmine Prep, 81 Camas, 129 Gig Harbor, 187 Emerald Ridge, 206 Skyview, 224 South Kitsap, 228 Olympia, 232 Curtis, 261 Mountain View, 271 Union, 289 Graham-Kapowsin, 300 Sumner, 307 Puyallup, 407 Rogers-Puyallup, 412 Lincoln, 435 Timberline, 438 Heritage, 453 Kelso, 460 Stadium, 469 Battle Ground

D1 Region 4 (5 to state): 85 North Central, 96 Central Valley, 117 Joel Ferris, 118 Eisenhower, 138 Lewis & Clark, 143 Kamiakin, 208 Richland, 224 Gonzaga Prep, 252 University, 263 Mead, 289 Southridge, 383 Walla Walla, 390 Mount Spokane, 402 Hanford, 443 West Valley-Yakima, 445 Moses Lake, 473 Pasco, 488 Wenatchee, 490 Eastmont, 531 AC Davis

D2 Region 1 (7 to state): 99 Sehome, 155 Bishop Blanchet, 178 Cedarcrest, 187 Seattle Prep, 196 Liberty-Issaquah, 216 Nathan Hale, 242 Everett, 251 Bainbridge, 255 Ingraham, 259 Mountlake Terrace, 291 Bellingham, 318 Franklin, 318 Lakeside-Seattle, 329 Oak Harbor, 341 Shorecrest, 356 Juanita, 360 Anacortes, 368 Burlington-Edison, 409 Stanwood, 431 Lakewood

D2 Region 2 (6 to state): 81 Lakes, 102 Lindbergh, 112 Bonney Lake, 118 Woodrow Wilson, 124 Sequim, 129 Kingston, 170 Steilacoom, 191 Central Kitsap, 228 Peninsula, 310 Port Angeles, 312 North Kitsap, 348 Washington, 382 Orting, 396 Franklin Pierce, 406 Renton, 456 Eatonville, 473 Fife, 478 White River, 487 Olympic, 495 Highline

D2 Region 3 (4 to state): 73 Ridgefield, 94 Tumwater, 95 Washougal, 136 Columbia River, 151 Capital, 186 Hockinson, 208 Black Hills, 259 R.A. Long, 285 Prairie, 301 North Thurston, 325 Shelton, 328 Mark Morris, 331 Centralia, 354 Rochester, 359 W.F. West, 380 Hudson's Bay, 430 Aberdeen, 463 River Ridge

D2 Region 4 (3 to state): 78 Pullman, 79 Selah, 83 Cheney, 92 Ellensburg, 120 West Valley-Spokane, 187 East Valley-Spokane, 194 Prosser, 216 Toppenish, 261 Ephrata, 282 Wapato, 311 Grandview, 337 Quincy, 341 Clarkston, 350 East Valley-Yakima, 451 Othello



Notes: There are in effect 8 less teams than actually qualified to state, and the vast majority of those teams that would no longer qualify were not that competitive at the state level: 4A #16 West Valley-Yakima was almost 100 points behind the next worst team. 3A #15 Mountain View was 160 points out of the top 10. 2A District 3 duo of Port Angeles and North Kitsap were 160 points behind the #14 team at state. But the key point of these changes was to make the state qualification system more equitable and the state qualifiers more competitive, and that certainly looks to be the result. The strongest regions remained the strongest, but the gap between them and the rest of the state shrinks considerably. While there are still going to be teams that lag behind the rest of the field at the state meet, there are bound to be fewer, and this scenario bares that out: all of the teams that qualify in the top division proved capable of running a sub-17 average, and all of the teams in the second division proved capable of running a sub-17:30 average. No more 17:30+ in 4A and 18:00+ in 2A.

Here is the hypothetical scoring of these two state meets:

Division 1 =

1. 101 - Bellarmine Prep - 16:03.14
2. 108 - North Central - 16:04.25
3. 135 - Central Valley - 16:08.06
4. 177 - Joel Ferris - 16:11.65
5. 183 - Eisenhower - 16:11.90
6. 209 - Lewis and Clark* - 16:21.33
7. 231 - Glacier Peak - 16:24.38
8. 232 - Henry Jackson - 16:17.25
9. 246 - Tahoma - 16:22.85
10. 249 - Camas - 16:13.73
11. 281 - Interlake - 16:29.54
12. 305 - Lake Stevens* - 16:34.13
13. 318 - Issaquah - 16:35.67
14. 328 - Skyline - 16:37.17
15. 353 - Ballard - 16:37.25
16. 358 - Gig Harbor - 16:39.38
17. 363 - Arlington - 16:40.25
18. 388 - Redmond - 16:43.53
19. 443 - Skyview - 16:56.28
20. 484 - Emerald Ridge - 16:57.68

Division 2 =

1. 137 - Sehome - 16:39.16
2. 190 - Bishop Blanchet - 16:50.59
3. 206 - Cedarcrest - 16:47.30
4. 207 - Seattle Prep* - 16:54.06
5. 223 - Liberty (Issaquah) - 16:53.05
6. 231 - Ridgefield - 16:50.70
7. 232 - Selah - 16:55.10
8. 238 - Pullman - 16:58.06
9. 245 - Cheney - 16:59.02
10. 245 - Nathan Hale* - 17:00.13
11. 281 - Lakes - 17:06.39
12. 285 - Everett - 17:04.95
13. 295 - Tumwater - 17:05.50
14. 297 - Washougal - 17:06.51
15. 312 - Woodrow Wilson - 17:05.78
16. 318 - Lindbergh - 17:11.78
17. 338 - Sequim - 17:12.72
18. 353 - Kingston - 17:17.76
19. 355 - Bonney Lake - 17:19.15
20. 395 - Columbia River* - 17:25.83

Asterisk denotes the team did not qualify this fall in the current system.

Looking at how the regional races would be projected to unfold, it would probably be possible to use the exact number of starting boxes as they used at the meet with an individual qualifier factor of 4 (meaning if a region qualifies 5 teams, they send 20 individuals). The four races I looked at would have projected 29-36 individuals to qualify with that ratio (meaning 5-6 individuals per box, as there were 26 starting boxes this year).

Here is a chart similar to one I used earlier, looking at the final qualifiers from each region and comparing that to the actual qualifiers from this year's system. As mentioned before, for both the actual qualifiers and projected qualifiers these are using the best races from the state series (League through State).

Individual - Team - Qualifier (Teams/Individuals) - 3200m Equivalents

164.7 162.9 D1-1 (4/16) 10:00.6 10:03.7
165.0 157.5 D1-2 (6/24) 9:59.9 10:13.4
164.9 157.1 D1-3 (5/20) 10:00.2 10:14.2
173.9 169.3 D1-4 (5/20) 9:44.0 9:52.3

161.0 154.6 D2-1 (7/28) 10:07.1 10:18.6
148.7 149.8 D2-2 (6/24) 10:29.2 10:27.2
154.0 147.6 D2-3 (4/16) 10:19.7 10:31.2
159.9 156.6 D2-4 (3/12) 10:09.2 10:15.0

163.9 168.3 4A-1 (2/14) 10:02.0 9:54.1
163.2 164.0 4A-2 (2/14) 10:03.2 10:01.8
153.6 154.6 4A SW (8/56) 10:20.4 10:18.7
142.0 146.5 4A-6 (2/14) 10:41.2 10:33.1
172.4 172.6 4A ER (2/14) 9:46.8 9:46.4

155.0 154.6 3A-1 (4/28) 10:17.9 10:18.6
157.8 159.4 3A-2 (7/49) 10:12.9 10:10.0
147.1 149.8 3A SW (5/35) 10:32.1 10:27.2

152.1 158.6 2A NW (3/21) 10:23.2 10:11.4
128.0 131.9 2A-3 (6/42) 11:06.3 10:59.3
145.8 154.1 2A-4 (3/21) 10:34.4 10:19.6
147.7 155.9 2A ER (4/28) 10:31.0 10:16.3

Notes: (in the following, I will be referring to the caliber of performances in 3200m terms instead of performance ratings, because that is generally easier to communicate to those that may not have followed me for very long)

In Division 1, it would take about a 10:00 to qualify as an individual in any region, except the Eastern Regional (which remained around a 9:45). In the current system, it was about a 10:20 to qualify out of the Southwest and a 10:40 out of the CBBN, and only slightly slower than 10:00 for WESCO and KingCo.

For Division 1 teams, you're looking at about a 10:15 average for the slowest regions and about a 9:50-9:55 for the Eastern Regional. That's actually significantly better in EVERY way than the current system, where the last team from the Eastern Regional was a 9:46 average and the slowest regions were 10:19 and 10:33. The WESCO also is relieved a little bit, as instead of a 9:54 being the last one in they are down to a more modest 10:04.

In Division 2, the top two regions are around 10:05-10:10 to qualify for state, while the weakest two regions are around 10:20-10:30. Keeping in mind that the most similar classification to D2 is 2A (it's essentially 2A plus the smaller half of 3A), the qualifiers were generally around 10:20-10:35 with the weakest district only taking an 11:05 to move on. That is far more equitable.

For Division 2 teams, you're looking at a 10:15 in the fastest region and a 10:30 in the slowest. At present, it's about a 10:10 in the fastest and 11:00 in the slowest, so that is a drastic improvement as well.

In short, my proposed 4-division regional system makes qualifying for state far more equitable, as well as improving the average quality of the field, without making it more difficult for the top regions to advance to state.

That's the rant for today. Check in tomorrow for the conclusion of this series.

Links to the other parts of this series: Part I - Part II - Part III - Part V