NXN History - Top Programs and Regions

I haven't updated this one in a few years, so I think it's about time to take another look at it.

Scores of the top programs are adjusted averages, where I capped the points at 380 and include any non-qualifying team as scoring 380 points. This is roughly the average score of the #18 team (375 for boys and 392 for girls) and is a way to compare teams that don't qualify as often (e.g. good programs from strong regions), but still favor teams that consistently qualify and place well.

note: I'm also referring to Top-8 instead of Top-10 or Top-Half (11) in this post because that is the point of the greatest scoring differential which makes it the cleanest and most consistent cut-off between teams that are competitive with the Podium Teams and teams that aren't. I also considered using Top-18 instead of Top-15 for the third point of consideration because there are 18 AQ teams every year, but I ended up sticking with Top-15 because it is closer to 330 points (which in a field of 22 teams is generally around the point where teams are still competitive with the top half of the field) and because it gives a clearer definition of regions that aren't struggling to be competitive with the field as a whole -- only having 4 teams per year not make the cut isn't as meaningful when pointing to differences between most of the regions, which are fairly dominated by 2-3 regions on either side which does make it similar to the Podium comparison but not as completely a "These teams are competitive with the majority of the national field" comparison.

Top-10 Boys Programs from 2007-2019: (# Trips, Podium finishes, Top-8 and Top-15 finishes)

1. 255.15 American Fork UT (9 trips: 3/9/9)
2. 268.69 North Central WA (8 trips: 3/8/8)
3. 269.54 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (12 trips: 3/5/8)
4. 270.85 Christian Brothers Academy NJ (10 trips: 2/6/7)
5. 294.69 Great Oak CA (5 trips: 3/5/5)
6. 309.15 The Woodlands TX (10 trips: 1/5/6)
7. 311.62 Arcadia CA (5 trips: 2/3/4)
8. 318.08 Dana Hills CA (8 trips: 1/4/5)
9. 318.69 York IL (7 trips: 1/2/7)
10. 319.15 Davis UT (6 trips: 1/3/5)

honorable mention: Southlake Carroll TX, Wayzata MN, Loudoun Valley VA also average under 330

Top-10 Girls Programs from 2007-2019: (# Trips, Podium finishes, Top-8 and Top-15 finishes)

1. 89.00 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (13 trips: 11/13/13)
2. 214.92 Saratoga Springs NY (12 trips: 5/9/12)
3. 288.38 Great Oak CA (9 trips: 3/6/8)
4. 288.38 Carmel IN (7 trips: 2/7/7)
5. 292.46 Fort Collins CO (7 trips: 1/7/7)
6. 299.46 Saugus CA (7 trips: 3/4/6)
7. 306.46 Naperville North IL (8 trips: 2/3/8)
8. 312.46 Wayzata MN (5 trips: 2/5/5)
9. 323.85 Tatnall DE (6 trips: 2/4/5)
10. 336.85 Jesuit OR (7 trips: 0/1/7)

honorable mention: Southlake Carroll TX, Davis CA, Bozeman MT, Summit OR, Davis UT also average under 350

Average Region Score - Boys Auto-Qualifiers: (and # Podium/Top-8/Top-15 finishes for ALL teams)

1. 215.58 Southwest (9 Podium Teams, 23 Top-8 and 32 Top-15 out of 35)
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2. 251.46 California (7 Podium Teams, 17 Top-8 and 29 Top-15 out of 42)
3. 262.42 Midwest (4 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 30 Top-15 out of 35)
4. 272.96 Northwest (6 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 20 Top-15 out of 29)
5. 280.73 Northeast (2 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 19 Top-15 out of 31)
6. 286.31 New York (3 Podium Teams, 8 Top-8 and 20 Top-15 out of 28)
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7. 325.77 South (3 Podium Teams, 9 Top-8 and 17 Top-15 out of 31)
8. 328.35 Southeast (4 Podium Teams, 5 Top-8 and 14 Top-15 out of 27)
9. 335.46 Heartland (1 Podium Team, 3 Top-8 and 14 Top-15 out of 28)

There has developed 3 mostly distinct tiers of regions on the boys side; the Southwest teams almost always finish in the Top-15 and almost 2/3 finish in the Top-8 which means that as a region the SW clearly stands out above the rest; about 2/3 of the teams from the second tier finish in the Top-15 and a healthy amount finish in the Top-8; the teams in the third tier only finish in the Top-15 about half of the time and although the South is about as good at finishing in the Top-8 as the second tier regions a lot more of their teams are finishing pretty far back.

Average Region Score - Girls Auto-Qualifiers: (and # Podium/Top-8/Top-15 finishes for ALL teams)

1. 150.00 New York (16 Podium Teams, 28 Top-8 and 38 Top-15 out of 39)
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2. 251.69 California (8 Podium Teams, 14 Top-8 and 29 Top-15 out of 37)
3. 254.19 Southwest (4 Podium Teams, 20 Top-8 and 30 Top-15 out of 34)
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4. 274.19 Midwest (4 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 24 Top-15 out of 32)
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5. 313.04 Northwest (2 Podium Teams, 7 Top-8 and 22 Top-15 out of 30)
6. 320.63 Heartland (2 Podium Teams, 6 Top-8 and 16 Top-15 out of 27)
7. 332.54 Southeast (2 Podium Teams, 7 Top-8 and 16 Top-15 out of 30)
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8. 376.58 Northeast (0 Podium Teams, 5 Top-8 and 11 Top-15 out of 29)
9. 382.72 South (1 Podium Team, 4 Top-8 and 9 Top-15 out of 28)

There has developed 4 somewhat murky tiers of regions on the girls side; the New York teams almost always finish in the Top-15, almost 3/4 of their teams finish in the Top-8 and almost half finish on the podium and it's pretty rare that the top NY team doesn't end up the national champion; the second tier regions (CA and SW) have more than 2/3 of their teams finish in the Top-15 and more than 1/3 of their teams finish in the Top-8; the Midwest is between tiers (similar rate of podium finishes as the SW but almost half that of their Top-8 finishes and not nearly as strong in Top-15 finishes, and similar Top-8 finishes as California but only half of their podium finishes), and same with the Northwest in terms of Top-15 finishes but without the podium or even Top-8 finishes which puts the NW in the third tier. The third tier teams have more than half of their teams finish in the Top-15 and about a quarter finish in the Top-8; the fourth tier (Northeast and South) only have about 1/3 of their teams finish in the Top-15 and the Northeast and South combine to have more than half of the #19-22 finishes (13 for the Northeast and 14 for the South, with the only other region that has more than 5 such teams is the Southeast with 9).

Average Region Score - Boys Top-2 Finishers: (and # of At-Large bids received)

1. 208.88 Southwest (9 At-Large Invites)
2. 231.58 California (16 At-Large Invites)
3. 246.88 Midwest (9 At-Large Invites)
4. 270.73 Northwest (3 At-Large Invites)
5. 280.73 Northeast (5 At-Large Invites)
6. 284.00 New York (2 At-Large Invites)
7. 318.58 South (5 At-Large Invites)
8. 328.35 Southeast (1 At-Large Invite)
9. 335.46 Heartland (2 At-Large Invites)

Average Region Score - Girls Top-2 Finishers: (and # of At-Large bids received)

1. 149.19 New York (13 At-Large Invites)
2. 240.96 California (11 At-Large Invites)
3. 242.62 Southwest (8 At-Large Invites)
4. 267.73 Midwest (6 At-Large Invites)
5. 306.19 Northwest (4 At-Large Invites)
6. 320.63 Heartland (0 At-Large Invites)
7. 323.88 Southeast (4 At-Large Invites)
8. 369.12 Northeast (3 At-Large Invites)
9. 380.00 South (3 At-Large Invites)

Additionally, here's a comparison of the % of teams invited that have finished in the Top-3/8/15 (can be derived from the AQ Regional Ranking list):

Boys Regions:

1. Southwest (25.7%, 65.7%, 91.4%)
2. Midwest (11.4%, 37.1%, 85.7%)
3. New York (10.7%, 28.6%, 71.4%)
4. Northwest (20.7%, 44.8%, 69.0%)
5. California (16.7%, 40.5%, 69.0%)
6. Northeast (06.5%, 41.9%, 61.3%)
7. South (09.7%, 29.0%, 54.8%)
8. Southeast (14.8%, 18.5%, 51.9%)
9. Heartland (03.6%, 10.7%, 50.0%)

Girls Regions:

1. New York (41.0%, 71.8%, 97.4%)
2. Southwest (11.8%, 58.8%, 88.2%)
3. California (21.6%, 37.8%, 78.4%)
4. Midwest (12.5%, 40.6%, 75.0%)
5. Northwest (06.7%, 23.3%, 73.3%)
6. Heartland (07.4%, 22.2%, 59.3%)
7. Southeast (06.7%, 23.3%, 53.3%)
8. Northeast (00.0%, 17.2%, 37.9%)
9. South (03.6%, 14.3%, 32.1%)

And, finally, one last comparison: the % of teams from each region (same as above) but only 2013+ for girls and 2012+ for boys, because that's about the time that the depth of the national field become close to what it is today (possibly more on that in a later post).

Boys Regions: (AQ Average, Top-2 Average, # Teams: Podium, Top-8, Top-15)

1. Southwest (210.31, 199.44, 24 teams: 6, 15, 22 or 25.0%, 62.5% and 91.7%)
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2. California (241.31, 221.06, 24 teams: 6, 12, 18 or 25.0%, 50.0% and 75.0%)
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3. Midwest (276.31, 260.81, 21 teams: 0, 7, 16 or 0%, 33.3% and 76.2%)
4. Southeast (269.88, 269.88, 17 teams: 4, 5, 14 or 23.5%, 29.4% and 82.4%)
5. New York (285.06, 281.31, 18 teams: 2, 6, 13 or 11.1%, 33.3% and 72.2%)
6. Northwest (286.19, 282.56, 19 teams: 4, 7, 10 or 21.1%, 36.8% and 52.6%)
7. Northeast (290.94, 290.94, 17 teams: 1, 7, 10 or 5.9%, 41.2% and 58.8%)
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8. Heartland (339.31, 339.31, 18 teams: 1, 2, 9 or 5.6%, 11.1% and 50.0%)
9. South (371.75, 360.06, 18 teams: 0, 3, 8 or 0%, 16.7% and 44.4%)

On the boys side, aside from the Southwest, there isn't really any strong difference between the regions as a whole ... California's front-end talent is still very strong with many podium and Top-8 finishes but not compared to the SW in terms of Top-8 and Top-15 kind of puts the region between the SW and the next tier of teams; a separation in Tier 2 between the SE/MW/NY and NE/NW in terms of Top-15 finishes but not Top-3 (where SE and NW both have as many as the other regions in that tier and below combined) or Top-8 (where they are all very similar); the Heartland and South are still comparatively struggling, though, even though the back end of Tier 2 is close to them in terms of Top-15 finishes.

Girls Regions: (AQ Average, Top-2 Average, # Teams: Podium, Top-8, Top-15)

1. New York (184.36, 184.36, 18 teams: 6, 10, 17 or 33.3%, 55.6% and 94.4%)
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2. California (227.93, 221.86, 19 teams: 5, 10, 17 or 26.3%, 52.6% and 89.5%)
3. Southwest (255.43, 233.93, 21 teams: 3, 13, 18 or 14.3%, 61.9% and 85.7%)
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4. Midwest (257.71, 250.29, 18 teams: 3, 7, 15 or 16.7%, 38.9% and 83.3%)
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5. Northwest (297.57, 284.86, 18 teams: 2, 6, 13 or 11.1%, 33.3% and 72.2%)
6. Heartland (293.20, 293.20, 15 teams: 2, 5, 10 or 13.3%, 33.3% and 66.7%)
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7. Northeast (370.86, 364.00, 16 teams: 0, 2, 4 or 0%, 12.5% and 25.0%)
8. Southeast (375.29, 371.93, 15 teams: 0, 1, 5 or 0%, 6.7% and 33.3%)
9. South (375.69, 373.00, 14 teams: 0, 2, 6 or 0%, 14.3% and 42.9%)

... as you can see, the disparity even on the girls side is nowhere near where it has been overall, particularly when looking beyond average score and looking at the distribution of podium Top-8/15 finishes. The Southwest has overtaken New York in terms of getting Top-8 finishes on the girls side, and California has essentially matched New York as well (although NY or more specifically Fayetteville-Manlius, obviously, is still at the top when it comes to Championships and Podium finishes -- this is more about NY #2/3/4 teams no longer being podium or even top-8 teams every single year: in the last 7 years aside from FM, NY has sent 11 girls teams and ended up with 3 Top-8 finishes including Saratoga's win last year compared to 6 finishes outside the top half of the field ... which is much different from 2007-2012 when there were 3-4 NY girls teams in the top half of the field every single year, or the 2004-2006 pre-Regional years when there may have been as many capable of doing so aside from maybe 2005). The Heartland and Northwest are also essentially on par with the Midwest now in terms of podium and Top-8 finishes (though the Heartland has done so with only 1 At-Large team vs. 4 each from the MW and NW, and the HL still a bit further back in terms of depth as evidenced by total Top-15 finishes). Meanwhile, the Southeast and South have nearly traded places. A clear grouping of regions though with Tier 1 being New York, California and the Southwest; Tier 2 being Midwest, Northeast and Heartland; Tier 3 being South, Southeast and Northeast.

(also, another way to look at it: on average, the SW has 2 teams among the top 8 in both the boys and girls races, CA has 1.5 in both as does the NY girls, while the NY boys and MW/NW boys and girls average 1 per year as does the NE boys, the HL and South on both sides average 0.5 per year as does the SE boys, while the Southeast girls average 0 ... which has some implications for potential At-Large teams: Southeast girls will typically need to show during the season just how great they are by beating teams from other regions, while #3/4 teams from the SW on both sides will have an easier time qualifying if they merely finish close to the #2 team at NXR -- IF it appears to be an "average" year for the SW and SE AQ teams in this example, because every year is different and it could be that the top SE girls look much stronger than usual and so finishing close to them will still put a team in strong consideration, or the SW teams much weaker than usual which lessens the value of finishing close to them without much else of a resume).

In general, the nation as a whole has been much stronger and MUCH more balanced from 2013-2019 on the girls side and 2012-2019 on the boys side... aside from the Fayetteville-Manlius girls and the Southwest boys continuing to more or less dominate the rest.

WIAA 2A Scholastic Cup Preview for 2020-2024 cycle

In the (Fall) 2020 - (Spring) 2024 cycle, it looks like there will be 61 schools in the 2A classification.

Here's a breakdown of the schools by League (and District), their 2016-2020 Scholastic Cup (athletics scores only) ranking, and a projection as to how many state allocations each district/region will get.

District 1:
10 teams in 2 leagues; Either 2.5 spots to state if they do not combine with District 2, or 4.5 spots if they do.

WESCO (2):
2A#22 Archbishop Murphy
2A#40 Cedarcrest

Northwest Conference (8):
2A#2 Sehome
2A#8 Bellingham
2A#11 Lynden
2A#17 Anacortes
2A#19 Burlington-Edison
3A#42 Squalicum
2A#45 Sedro-Woolley
2A#54 Lakewood


District 2:
7 teams in 1 league; 2 spots to state on their own, 4.5 if they combine with District 1 or 6 if they combine with District 3.

KingCo (7):
2A#18 Sammamish
2A#30 Lindbergh
2A#41 Highline
2A#43 Renton
2A#48 Foster
2A#62 Tyee
2A#64 Evergreen (Seattle)


District 3:
16 teams in 2 leagues; 4 spots to state on their own, or 6 if they combine with District 2.

Olympic (7):
2A#5 North Kitsap
2A#15 Port Angeles
2A#16 Olympic
2A#20 Sequim
2A#32 Kingston
2A#56 Bremerton
2A#60 North Mason

South Puget Sound League (9):
2A#7 White River
2A#13 Fife
2A#21 Steilacoom
4A#56 Enumclaw
2A#37 Franklin Pierce
2A#39 Orting
2A#46 Washington
2A#51 Henry Foss
2A#61 Clover Park


District 4:
16 teams in 2 leagues; 4 spots to state

Evergreen Conference (7):
2A#9 W.F. West
2A#12 Tumwater
2A#26 Black Hills
3A#55 Shelton
2A#49 Aberdeen
2A#55 Centralia
2A#64 Rochester

Greater St. Helens League (9):
2A#3 Columbia River
2A#10 Ridgefield
2A#25 Washougal
2A#28 Woodland
2A#29 Mark Morris
2A#31 Hockinson
3A#55 Hudson's Bay
2A#44 R.A. Long
3A#67 Fort Vancouver


District 5:
7 teams in 1 league.; 2 spots to state on their own, or 3.5 if they combine with District 8

Central Washington Athletic Conference (7):
2A#4 Selah
2A#6 Ellensburg
2A#33 East Valley (Yakima)
2A#36 Othello
2A#38 Ephrata
2A#47 Prosser
2A#59 Grandview


District 8:
6 teams in 1 league; 1.5 spots to state on their own, or 3.5 if they combine with District 5

Greater Spokane League (6):
2A#14 Pullman
2A#24 West Valley (Spokane)
2A#34 East Valley (Spokane)
2A#35 Clarkston
3A#53 Shadle Park
3A#62 Rogers (Spokane)



I don't know yet if District 2 is going to combine with District 1 or District 3 for state qualification purposes, or if they are going to qualify on their own now that they have 7 members. I did notice that District 1 is moving their XC Championships from South Whidbey to Cedarcrest, which would make things more convenient for combining with District 2...

p.s., here is the hypothetical XC District Meet merge from last year using the new realignment ...

Also, keep in mind that not every single team competed at their state qualifier (CWAC limited the teams the GNL could send, but I think that was the only league effected in 2A; West Valley-Spokane wasn't all that far off from the #14 Pullman boys at the GNL)

New 2A Top-20 Boys:

1. 44 - Rogers (Spokane) - 2A ER #1/3.5 - Qualify
2. 149 - Sehome - 2A NW #1/4.5 - Qualify
3. 162 - Steilacoom - 2A D3 #1/4 - Qualify
4. 176 - Bellingham - 2A NW #2/4.5 - Qualify
5. 211 - Ellensburg - 2A ER #2/3.5 - Qualify
6. 239 - Columbia River - 2A D4 #1/4 - Qualify
7. 249 - Sedro-Woolley - 2A NW #3/4.5 - Qualify
8. 249 - Enumclaw - 2A D3 #2/4 - Qualify
9. 261 - Selah - 2A ER #3/3.5 - Qualify
10. 282 - Lynden - 2A NW #4/4.5 - Qualify
11. 290 - Tumwater - 2A D4 #2/4 - Qualify
12. 309 - Ridgefield - 2A D4 #3/4 - Qualify
13. 317 - Cedarcrest - 2A NW #5/4.5 - ?????
14. 325 - Pullman - 2A ER #4/3.5 - ?????
15. 330 - Renton - 2A NW #6/4.5 - DNQ
16. 340 - Lakewood - 2A NW #7/4.5 - DNQ
17. 374 - Shelton - 2A D4 #4/4 - Qualify
18. 378 - Port Angeles - 2A D3 #3/4 - Qualify
19. 386 - Lindbergh - 2A NW #8/4.5 - DNQ
20. 389 - Anacortes - 2A NW #9/4.5 - DNQ

All but one qualifier comes from the Top-20 here, with the last one being #22 North Kitsap from District 3. Only one of the top 13/14 would miss out. Good balance for what is generally the most balanced classification (in terms of who doesn't qualify). Notable that #1 Rogers (Spokane) and #17 Shelton are dropping down from 3A, and #8 Enumclaw is dropping down from 4A.

This is with assuming that the GSL and CWAC continue to combine for the Eastern Regional, and the NWC/WESCO and KingCo continue to combine for the Northwest Regional, and also that all leagues are fully represented at their regional meets. 2A looks very much intact, which shouldn't be too surprising as Rogers (Spokane) is trading places with Cheney and unless I'm forgetting a team I think that the next best team to left the classification (Toppenish) was only fifth at their district and the allocations are potentially getting better balanced with some of the District 3 teams moving north to the KingCo and taking an allocation with them to the NW Regional (moving 1 state spot from the weakest district to the strongest).

New 2A Top-20 Girls:

1. 94 - Ellensburg - 2A ER #1/3.5 - Qualify
2. 130 - Bellingham - 2A NW #1/4.5 - Qualify
3. 151 - West Valley (Spokane) - 2A ER #2/3.5 - Qualify
4. 167 - Sehome - 2A NW #2/4.5 - Qualify
5. 177 - Pullman - 2A ER #3/3.5 - Qualify
6. 212 - Anacortes - 2A NW #3/4.5 - Qualify
7. 248 - Lakewood - 2A NW #4/4.5 - Qualify
8. 264 - Cedarcrest - 2A NW #5/4.5 - ????
9. 286 - Hockinson - 2A D4 #1/4 - Qualify
10. 298 - Port Angeles - 2A D3 #1/4 - Qualify
11. 302 - Selah - 2A ER #4/3.5 - ????
12. 324 - Burlington-Edison - 2A NW #6/4.5 - DNQ
13. 333 - Enumclaw - 2A D3 #2/4 - Qualify
14. 341 - Shelton - 2A D4 #2/4 - Qualify
15. 351 - Washougal - 2A D4 #3/4 - Qualify
16. 358 - White River - 2A D3 #3/4 - Qualify
17. 358 - Ephrata - 2A ER #5/3.5 - DNQ
18. 362 - Squalicum - 2A NW #7/4.5 - DNQ
19. 377 - Washington - 2A D3 #4/4 - Qualify
20. 380 - Tumwater - 2A D4 #4/4 - Qualify

All of the qualifiers come from the Top-20 for the 2A Girls, but the field would have missed out on two of the Top-12 teams. Notable that #14 Shelton is dropping down from 3A.


Although I obviously used different ratings for this merge compared to the state preview (this was done by looking at how every runner ran at state vs. how they did at districts, while the state preview was purely based on my estimate on how the meets would compare), you can check this post to see how it compared to last year.

WIAA 3A Scholastic Cup Preview for 2020-2024 cycle

In the (Fall) 2020 - (Spring) 2024 cycle, it looks like there will be 78 boys programs and 78 girls programs competing in the 3A classification, which means there will be 20 teams qualifying to state.

Here's a breakdown of the schools by League (and District), their 2016-2020 Scholastic Cup (athletics scores only) ranking, and a projection as to how many state allocations each district/region will get.

District 1:
17 teams in 2 leagues; 4.5 spots to state

WESCO (14):
3A#11 Edmonds-Woodway
3A#13 Snohomish
3A#27 Arlington
3A#28 Shorecrest
3A#36 Stanwood
3A#51 Monroe
3A#42 Shorewood
3A#45 Everett
3A#49 Lynnwood
3A#50 Marysville Pilchuck
3A#53 Meadowdale
2A#42 Mountlake Terrace
4A#62 Cascade (Everett)
3A#60 Marysville Getchell

Northwest Conference (3):
3A#44 Ferndale
4A#60 Mount Vernon
3A#58 Oak Harbor

District 2:
24 teams in 2 leagues; 6 spots to state

KingCo (7):
3A#5 Bellevue
3A#7 Mercer Island
2A#1 Liberty (Issaquah)
3A#10 Lake Washington
3A#12 Interlake
4A#58 Hazen
3A#57 Juanita

Metro (17):
3A#1 Holy Names Academy -- girls only
3A#3 O'Dea -- boys only
3A#8 Lakeside (Seattle)
3A#9 Garfield
3A#14 Seattle Prep
3A#15 Eastside Catholic
3A#19 Roosevelt
3A#20 Bainbridge
3A#32 Bishop Blanchet
3A#38 Ballard
3A#43 West Seattle
3A#46 Rainier Beach
3A#51 Ingraham
3A#56 Nathan Hale
3A#62 Chief Sealth
3A#65 Franklin
3A#67 Lincoln (Seattle)


District 3:
22 teams in 3 leagues; 7 spots to state (combines with District 4)

North Puget Sound League (7):
4A#27 Auburn Riverside
4A#42 Thomas Jefferson
4A#44 Todd Beamer
4A#48 Kentlake
4A#49 Auburn Mountainview
4A#64 Kent Meridian
4A#65 Auburn

Pierce County League (7):
3A#23 Stadium
3A#25 Lincoln (Tahoma)
3A#28 Woodrow Wilson
3A#31 Bonney Lake
3A#40 Lakes
3A#59 Spanaway Lake
3A#63 Mount Tahoma

South Sound League (8):
3A#6 Gig Harbor
3A#16 Capital
3A#21 Yelm
3A#22 Central Kitsap
3A#24 Peninsula
3A#39 Timberline
3A#47 North Thurston
2A#50 River Ridge

District 4:
5 teams in 1 leagues; 7 spots to state (Combines with District 3)

Greater St. Helens League (5):
3A#18 Prairie
3A#26 Mountain View
3A#30 Kelso
3A#37 Evergreen (Vancouver)
4A#66 Heritage


District 8:
10 teams in 2 leagues; 2.5 spots to state

Greater Spokane League (7):
3A#4 Mount Spokane
4A#15 Mead
3A#17 North Central
4A#43 Walla Walla
2A#23 Cheney
4A#54 Joel Ferris
4A#57 University

Mid-Columbia Conference (3):
3A#34 Kennewick
3A#35 Southridge
3A#48 Hermiston (OR)



With 3A District 1 gaining an allocation without also gaining a reliably strong program, it seems likely that it will break their stalemate with CBBN as the least competitive district in the state while 3A looks to widen it's gap as the classification with the least parity between the state qualifying tournaments... (note: there are some good 3A WESCO programs, but the district doesn't appear to be consistently 5-6 teams deep across most sports while still sending 4-5 teams to state)

p.s., here is the hypothetical XC District Meet merge from last year using the new realignment ...


New 3A Top-20 Boys:

1. 64 - Bishop Blanchet - 3A D2 #1/6 - Qualify
2. 80 - North Central - 3A ER #1/2.5 - Qualify
3. 152 - Mead - 3A ER #2/2.5 - Qualify
4. 155 - Arlington - 3A D1 #1/4.5 - Qualify
5. 159 - Mt Spokane - 3A ER #3/2.5 - ?????
6. 194 - Interlake - 3A D2 #2/6 - Qualify
7. 214 - Walla Walla - 3A ER #4/2.5 - DNQ
8. 283 - University - 3A ER #5/2.5 - DNQ
9. 307 - Seattle Prep - 3A D2 #3/6 - Qualify
10. 327 - Stadium - 3A SW #1/7 - Qualify
11. 329 - Cheney - 3A ER #6/2.5 - DNQ
12. 334 - North Thurston - 3A SW #2/7 - Qualify
13. 337 - Lake Washington - 3A D2 #4/6 - Qualify
14. 350 - Ballard - 3A D2 #5/6 - Qualify
15. 354 - Lakes - 3A SW #3/7 - Qualify
16. 365 - O'Dea - 3A D2 #6/6 - Qualify
17. 366 - Auburn Mountainview - 3A SW #4/7 - Qualify
18. 367 - Franklin (WA) - 3A D2 #7/6 - DNQ
19. 387 - Yelm - 3A SW #5/7 - Qualify
20. 397 - Edmonds-Woodway - 3A D1 #2/4.5 - Qualify

On the boys side, potentially missing #5 Mount Spokane last year as well as certainly missing #7 Walla Walla and #8 University and #11 Cheney and #18 Franklin. Qualifying from outside the Top-20 would be #21 Snohomish, #24 Mountlake Terrance and possibly #26 Shorewood (they would be the one splitting with Mt. Spokane) out of District 1 and #22 Peninsula and #27 Bonney Lake out of the Southwest. Three of the Top-8 would be missing, as well as #11 Cheney... that's a lot of the better teams sitting at home.

Notable that #3 Mead, #7 Walla Walla, #8 University and #17 Auburn Mountainview are all dropping down from 4A (and #11 Cheney is moving up from 2A).

New 3A Top-20 Girls:

1. 25 - North Central - 3A ER #1/2.5 - Qualify
2. 111 - Holy Names Academy - 3A D2 #1/6 - Qualify
3. 205 - Bishop Blanchet - 3A D2 #2/6 - Qualify
4. 237 - Central Kitsap - 3A SW #1/7 - Qualify
5. 239 - Arlington - 3A D1 #1/4.5 - Qualify
6. 242 - Kennewick - 3A ER #2/2.5 - Qualify
7. 248 - Mead - 3A ER #3/2.5 - ????
8. 253 - Marysville Getchell - 3A D1 #2/4.5 - Qualify
9. 272 - Edmonds-Woodway - 3A D1 #3/4.5 - Qualify
10. 291 - Ballard - 3A D2 #3/6 - Qualify
11. 296 - Thomas Jefferson - 3A SW #2/7 - Qualify
12. 301 - Eastside Catholic - 3A D2 #4/6 - Qualify
13. 316 - Ingraham - 3A D2 #5/6 - Qualify
14. 318 - Walla Walla - 3A ER #4/2.5 - DNQ
15. 327 - Nathan Hale - 3A D2 #6/6 - Qualify
16. 339 - Hermiston - 3A ER #5/2.5 - DNQ
17. 342 - Joel Ferris - 3A ER #6/2.5 - DNQ
18. 350 - Capital - 3A SW #3/7 - Qualify
19. 351 - Garfield - 3A D2 #7/6 - DNQ
20. 361 - Interlake - 3A D2 #8/6 - DNQ

#7 Mead is the first team that might not qualify, and then several from the Eastern Regional (#14 Walla Walla, #16 Hermiston, #17 Joel Ferris) and a pair of District 2 teams (#19 Garfield and #20 Interlake). Qualifiers from beyond the Top-20 would include from the Southwest #21 Gig Harbor, #22 Stadium, #27 Auburn Riverside and #30 Lakes while qualifiers from District 1 would include #24 Lynnwood and maybe #29 Snohomish (who would be splitting the spot with Mead).

Notable that #7 Mead, #11 Thomas Jefferson, #14 Walla Walla, and #17 Joel Ferris are all dropping down from 4A, and that Cheney might have been among the Top-20 had they been able to run at the 2A Eastern Regional last year (they were #3 out of the GNL, and the CWAC only allowed 2 from the league to compete in the regional; both teams that finished ahead of them were in the Top 6 at state)

Although I obviously used different ratings for this merge compared to the state preview (this was done by looking at how every runner ran at state vs. how they did at districts, while the state preview was purely based on my estimate on how the meets would compare), you can check this post to see how it compared to last year.

WIAA 4A Scholastic Cup Preview for 2020-2024 cycle

In the (Fall) 2020 - (Spring) 2024 cycle, it looks like there will be 51 schools competing in the 4A classification.

Here's a breakdown of the schools by League (and District), their 2016-2020 Scholastic Cup (athletics scores only) ranking, and a projection as to how many state allocations each district/region will get.

District 1:
5 teams in 1 league; 1.5 spots to state

WESCO (5):
4A#9 Henry Jackson
4A#12 Lake Stevens
4A#13 Glacier Peak
4A#22 Kamiak
4A#63 Mariner


District 2:
10 teams in 1 league; 3 spots to state

KingCo (10):
4A#3 Issaquah
4A#4 Skyline
4A#11 Newport (Bellevue)
4A#16 Redmond
4A#21 Woodinville
4A#26 Eastlake
4A#36 Mount Si
4A#40 Bothell
4A#46 Inglemoor
4A#47 North Creek


District 3:
17 teams in 2 leagues; 7 spots to state (combines with District 4)

North Puget Sound League (8):
4A#2 Tahoma
4A#20 Kentwood
4A#25 Sumner
4A#31 Federal Way
4A#32 Kentridge
4A#45 Kennedy Catholic
4A#53 Decatur
4A#61 Mount Rainier

South Puget Sound League (9):
4A#7 Curtis
4A#8 Puyallup
4A#10 Bellarmine Prep
4A#29 Rogers (Puyallup)
4A#33 Olympia
4A#33 South Kitsap
4A#41 Emerald Ridge
3A#33 Bethel
4A#50 Graham-Kapowsin


District 4:
4 teams in 1 leagues; 7 spots to state (combines w/ District 3)

Greater St. Helens League (4):
4A#1 Camas
4A#6 Union
4A#19 Skyview
4A#55 Battle Ground


District 6:
7 teams in 1 league; 2 spots to state

Columbia Basin Big Nine (7):
4A#16 Wenatchee
4A#28 Moses Lake
4A#35 Eastmont
4A#37 West Valley (Yakima)
4A#39 Sunnyside
4A#52 Eisenhower
4A#58 A.C. Davis

District 8:
8 teams in 2 leagues; 2.5 spots to state

Greater Spokane League (3):
4A#5 Central Valley
4A#13 Lewis & Clark
4A#24 Gonzaga Prep

Mid-Columbia Conference (5):
3A#2 Kamiakin
4A#18 Richland
4A#23 Chiawana
4A#30 Hanford
4A#38 Pasco


Side note: if the Eastern Regional was restored with full participation from both CBBN and GSL/MCC, then they might get 5 full allocations rather than 2+2.5 unless WESCO and KingCo also restored the Northwest Regional (which they really should), in which case they might potentially remain at 4.5 allocations. Not to mention, it would greatly improve the competitive balance and make the state field all that much stronger. Only reason I say "might" is because I'm not 100% sure how the WIAA proceeds with the idea of districts combining for a regional: if the # of teams from both districts are combined together prior to determining allocations, or after, would be the key difference... there are pros and cons to either order, because if it is done prior to combining then it doesn't ensure that the regional is always properly represented at state but it protects from the scenario of the districts not combining the second year of allocations, and visa versa if calculations are done after combining. The simple fix for that issue is for the WIAA to have stricter rules in place to create competitive balance by enforcing regional qualifiers - or, in other words, making sure districts combine for both years of an agreement rather than only once - when it is deemed necessary, which along with enforcing equitable representation at regional qualifiers would go a long ways towards establishing a better competitive balance within the state - no more unfair/unbalanced regional qualifiers due to one district being able to outvote the other and ensure greater representation, and the state being able to ensure that no state qualifier is too small to ensure the highest quality state field reasonably possible (e.g. a rule in place where any district that qualifies less than 3 teams to state MUST be combined with the nearest district and both districts MUST have representation proportional to their size at the regional tournament; in 4A for the next 2 years, that would mean that the NW, SW and Eastern Regionals would have to exist with each district getting proportional representation such as 4/5 WESCO + 8/10 KingCo in the NW, 6/8 NPSL + 7/9 SPSL + 3/4 GSHL in the SW, and 2/3 GSL + 4/5 MCC + 6/7 CBBN in the ER for 12/16/12 team fields in cases where all teams cannot be included in the qualifier).

p.s., here is the hypothetical XC District Meet merge from last year using the new realignment ...

New 4A Top-20 Boys:

1. 51 - Kamiakin - 4A-8 #1/2.5 - Qualify
2. 102 - Camas - 4A SW #1/7 - Qualify
3. 132 - Lewis and Clark - 4A-8 #2/2.5 - Qualify
4. 160 - Central Valley - 4A-8 #3/2.5 - ????? (would only qualify every other year)
5. 185 - Tahoma - 4A SW #2/7 - Qualify
6. 213 - Henry Jackson - 4A-1 #1/1.5 - Qualify
7. 259 - Gonzaga Prep - 4A-8 #4/2.5 - DNQ
8. 269 - Newport (Bellevue) - 4A-2 #1/3 - Qualify
9. 269 - Olympia - 4A SW #3/7 - Qualify
10. 283 - Puyallup - 4A SW #4/7 - Qualify
11. 316 - Eisenhower - 4A-6 #1/2 - Qualify
12. 318 - Curtis - 4A SW #5/7 - Qualify
13. 321 - Mt Si - 4A-2 #2/3 - Qualify
14. 323 - Woodinville - 4A-2 #3/3 - Qualify
15. 328 - Kamiak - 4A-1 #2/1.5 - ????? (would only qualify every other year)
16. 338 - West Valley (Yakima) - 4A-6 #2/2 - Qualify
17. 340 - Sumner - 4A SW #6/7 - Qualify
18. 393 - Eastlake - 4A-2 #4/3 - DNQ
19. 404 - Issaquah - 4A-2 #5/3 - DNQ
20. 405 - Lake Stevens - 4A-1 #3/1.5 - DNQ

On the boys side, potentially missing #4 Central Valley last year as well as certainly missing #7 Gonzaga Prep. Luckily, those are the only Top-17 that would be missing (either Kamiak and Central Valley would qualify and the other left home), though I'm not sure that makes up for a potential podium finisher sitting it out. The last qualifier would be #22 Rogers (Puyallup) out of the Southwest.

Notable that #1 Kamiakin is moving up from 3A.

New 4A Top-20 Girls:

1. 111 - Camas - 4A SW #1/7 - Qualify
2. 135 - Redmond - 4A-2 #1/3 - Qualify
3. 148 - Lewis and Clark - 4A-8 #1/2.5 - Qualify
4. 166 - Richland - 4A-8 #2/2.5 - Qualify
5. 174 - Tahoma - 4A SW #2/7 - Qualify
6. 204 - Bellarmine Prep - 4A SW #3/7 - Qualify
7. 235 - Central Valley - 4A-8 #3/2.5 - ????
8. 252 - Glacier Peak - 4A-1 #1/1.5 - Qualify
9. 266 - Eastlake - 4A-2 #2/3 - Qualify
10. 295 - Lake Stevens - 4A-1 #2/1.5 - ????
11. 306 - Emerald Ridge - 4A SW #4/7 - Qualify
12. 313 - Hanford - 4A-8 #4/2.5 - DNQ
13. 326 - Bothell - 4A-2 #3/3 - Qualify
14. 331 - Kamiakin - 4A-8 #5/2.5 - DNQ
15. 332 - Eisenhower - 4A-6 #1/2 - Qualify
16. 358 - Issaquah - 4A-2 #4/3 - DNQ
17. 367 - Newport (Bellevue) - 4A-2 #5/3 - DNQ
18. 376 - Henry Jackson - 4A-1 #3/1.5 - DNQ
19. 385 - South Kitsap - 4A SW #5/7 - Qualify
20. 417 - Wenatchee - 4A-6 #2/2 - Qualify

Just like with the boys, Central Valley is the first one that might not qualify - but this time at least they aren't a Top-5 team! #7 Central Valley and #10 Lake Stevens would be splitting a spot, so one of them would be sitting at home one year and the other the next. That's a Top-10 team missing from the field, but it could be worse... #12 Hanford and #14 Kamiakin from the GSL/MCC meet wouldn't qualify, nor would #16 Issaquah and #17 Newport (Bellevue) from KingCo or #18 Henry Jackson from WESCO. The two Southwest teams that didn't make the Top-20 cut here but would qualify are #22 Skyview and #26 Rogers (Puyallup).

Notable that #14 Kamiakin is moving up from 3A.

Although I obviously used different ratings for this merge compared to the state preview (this was done by looking at how every runner ran at state vs. how they did at districts, while the state preview was purely based on my estimate on how the meets would compare), you can check this post to see how it compared to last year.

WIAA Review: 2A Scholastic Cup and Realignment

Here's a series of posts looking at how the (athletic portion of the) 4-year WIAA Scholastic Cup turned out (unfortunately, without the spring sports due to COVID-19 which hurts strong track/baseball/softball programs like Tumwater) and where each team is headed in terms of realignment for the next cycle.

Side note: Adjusted Enrollment (using the WIAA's adjustment for socio-economic conditions) has a 20.1% stronger correlation to Athletic Program achievement within 2A than total Enrollment would have had.

Average Points - School - Class-District (League)

Schools in bold have OPTED UP to their 2020 classification.

Schools in red are dropping from 2A to 1A

School in blue are moving up from 2A to 3A

1. 597.5 - Liberty (Issaquah) - 3A-2 (KingCo)
2. 488.8 - Sehome - 2A-1 (NWC)
3. 445.5 - Columbia River - 2A-4 (GSHL)
4. 437.8 - Selah - 2A-5 (CWAC)
5. 437.5 - North Kitsap - 2A-3 (Olympic)
6. 377.5 - Ellensburg - 2A-5 (CWAC)
7. 335.0 - White River - 2A-3 (SPSL)
8. 310.0 - Bellingham - 2A-1 (NWC)
9. 308.5 - W.F. West - 2A-4 (EvCo)
10. 303.8 - Ridgefield - 2A-4 (GSHL)
11. 301.3 - Lynden - 2A-1 (NWC)
12. 278.8 - Tumwater - 2A-4 (EvCo)
13. 270.0 - Fife - 2A-3 (SPSL)
14. 262.5 - Pullman - 2A-8 (GSL)
15. 246.3 - Port Angeles - 2A-3 (Olympic)
16. 242.5 - Olympic - 2A-3 (Olympic)
17. 240.0 - Anacortes - 2A-1 (NWC)
18. 233.5 - Sammamish - 2A-2 (KingCo)
19. 225.5 - Burlington-Edison - 2A-1 (NWC)
20. 221.8 - Sequim - 2A-3 (Olympic)
21. 217.0 - Steilacoom - 2A-3 (SPSL)
22. 207.5 - Archbishop Murphy - 2A-1 (WESCO)
23. 188.5 - Cheney - 3A-8 (GSL)
24. 173.8 - West Valley (Spokane) - 2A-8 (GSL)
25. 173.0 - Washougal - 2A-4 (GSHL)
26. 171.3 - Black Hills - 2A-4 (EvCo)
27. 139.8 - Toppenish - 1A-5 (SCAC)
28. 139.3 - Woodland - 2A-4 (GSHL)
29. 130.0 - Mark Morris - 2A-4 (GSHL)
30. 128.8 - Lindbergh - 2A-2 (KingCo)
31. 125.0 - Hockinson - 2A-4 (GSHL)
32. 121.3 - Kingston - 2A-3 (Olympic)
33. 121.3 - East Valley (Yakima) - 2A-5 (CWAC)
34. 112.5 - East Valley (Spokane) - 2A-8 (GSL)
35. 108.0 - Clarkston - 2A-8 (GSL)
36. 105.0 - Othello - 2A-5 (CWAC)
37. 101.3 - Ephrata - 2A-5 (CWAC)
38. 101.3 - Franklin Pierce - 2A-3 (SPSL)
39.  97.5 - Orting - 2A-3 (SPSL)
40.  90.0 - Cedarcrest - 2A-1 (WESCO)
41.  87.5 - Highline - 2A-2 (KingCo)
42.  79.3 - Mountlake Terrace - 3A-1 (WESCO)
43.  65.5 - Renton - 2A-2 (KingCo)
44.  62.5 - R.A. Long - 2A-4 (GSHL)
45.  61.8 - Sedro-Woolley - 2A-1 (NWC)
46.  60.0 - Washington - 2A-3 (SPSL)
47.  58.8 - Prosser - 2A-5 (CWAC)
48.  57.5 - Foster - 2A-2 (KingCo)
49.  57.5 - Aberdeen - 2A-4 (EvCo)
50.  52.8 - River Ridge - 3A-3 (SSL)
51.  47.5 - Foss - 2A-3 (SPSL)
52.  45.0 - Wapato - 1A-5 (SCAC)
53.  43.8 - Eatonville - 1A-4 (EvCo)
54.  40.0 - Centralia - 2A-4 (EvCo)
55.  40.0 - Lakewood - 2A-1 (NWC)
56.  28.5 - Bremerton - 2A-3 (Olympic)
57.  27.5 - Quincy - 1A-6 (CTL)
58.  22.5 - Blaine - 1A-1 (NWC)
59.  20.0 - Grandview - 2A-5 (CWAC)
60.  17.5 - North Mason - 2A-3 (Olympic)
61.  15.0 - Clover Park - 2A-3 (SPSL)
62.   5.0 - Tyee - 2A-2 (KingCo)
63.   2.5 - Granite Falls - 1A-1 (NWC)
64.   0.0 - Evergreen (Seattle) - 2A-2 (KingCo)
65.   0.0 - Rochester - 2A-4 (EvCo)

... 5 of the 6 schools dropping to 1A were in the bottom 14, with 4 due to the socio-economic adjustment plus another that successfully petitioned down (and also is effected by the socio-economic adjustment). The sixth school that is dropping to 1A, Toppenish, is also due to the adjustment factor but they were a mid-pack program sitting at #27. Of the 4 teams moving up to 3A, two were among the top 25 of the classification (#1 Liberty-Issaquah and #23 Cheney).

As a whole, the districts in the Eastern half of the state were hit pretty hard. All but one of the teams dropping were in the CWAC, and one of the four teams moving up was from the GNL. However, reinforcements are arriving in the form of two 3A GSL teams dropping down to join the fold: Shadle Park and Rogers (Spokane). As the league formerly known as the GNL (now merging with the GSL) is finally going to have parity in numbers with the CWAC, hopefully that means no more unfair state qualification process in the Eastern Regional (unless they decline to combine for state qualification purposes, as the CWAC would still get 2 spots while the GSL could end up with anywhere from 1 to 1.5 to 2 depending on whether D2 qualifies on it's own or combines with D1 or D3).

One important point to mention is exemplified here ... at the 2A level, in most years and most sports it is the top 26 programs that are pretty dominant. In specific years or specific sports, there are other programs that rise towards the top, but for all-around athletic excellence 2A has a fairly clear delineation (#26 Black Hills averaged 171.25 points over the last 4 years, while #27 Toppenish at 139.75 drops to 1A and #28 Woodland averaged 139.25 points -- or nearly a quarter less). This is predictable given the size range of the schools: 38 of the 65 schools in 2A over the last 4 years had (adjusted) enrollments over 610 while 27 were under 595; 24 of the top 26 teams were from the 38 largest schools and only 2 of the smallest 27 cracked through (private school Archbishop Murphy and Anacortes which has an enrollment of 573). No other classification had such a clearly defined disparity: 2A's split was more than a 20% difference (Black Hills scored 22.5% more points than Toppenish), while 3A's biggest split is 14.8% between #40 Lakes and #41 Squalicum, and 4A's biggest split is 14.6% between #46 Inglemoor and #47 North Creek. Enrollment doesn't remotely describe the 4A split (10 of the 20 schools smaller than Inglemoor outscored them), nor does it in 3A (11 of the 27 schools smaller than Lakes outscored them).

The reason for this discrepancy should be obvious: that's roughly the point at which programs can consistently field not only competitive varsity programs but also JV and C-squad programs in most if not all sports with the realistic hopes of those JV and C-squads being remotely competitive on any consistent basis (note: smaller schools can also sometimes accomplish this with good coaching, especially in sports like XC, but it becomes much harder to do it across all sports and have good coaches in all sports to get to that point simply because it inevitably becomes a numbers game).

Not only that competitive JV+C-Squad factor, but given how few schools tend to be in that 580-640 range, it makes it the perfect cut-off for a classification - just as it used to be when there were only 5 classifications in Washington... and, by the way, it is possible to get pretty reasonable sized classifications while dropping from 6 back to 5 (or even 4).

WIAA Review: 3A Scholastic Cup and Realignment

Here's a series of posts looking at how the (athletic portion of the) 4-year WIAA Scholastic Cup turned out (unfortunately, without the spring sports due to COVID-19 which hurts strong track/baseball/softball programs like Holy Names Academy) and where each team is headed in terms of realignment for the next cycle.

Side note: Adjusted Enrollment (using the WIAA's adjustment for socio-economic conditions) has a 11.6% stronger correlation to Athletic Program achievement within 3A than total Enrollment would have had.

Average Points - School - Class-District (League)

Schools in bold have OPTED UP to their 2020 classification.

Schools in red are dropping from 3A to 2A

School in blue are moving up from 3A to 4A

1. 560.0 - Holy Names Academy - 3A-2 (Metro) -- score doubled to reflect All-Girls status
2. 533.0 - Kamiakin - 4A-8 (MCC)
3. 505.0 - O'Dea - 3A-2 (Metro) -- score doubled to reflect All-Boys status
4. 442.5 - Mount Spokane - 3A-8 (GSL)
5. 431.5 - Bellevue - 3A-2 (KingCo)
6. 431.0 - Gig Harbor - 3A-3 (SSL)
7. 420.0 - Mercer Island - 3A-2 (KingCo)
8. 408.8 - Lakeside (Seattle) - 3A-2 (Metro)
9. 355.0 - Garfield - 3A-2 (Metro)
   335.0 - Redmond - 4A-2 (KingCo) -- already moved to 4A in 2018
10. 310.0 - Lake Washington - 3A-2 (KingCo)
11. 288.8 - Edmonds-Woodway - 3A-1 (WESCO)
12. 267.5 - Interlake - 3A-2 (KingCo)
13. 256.3 - Snohomish - 3A-1 (WESCO)
14. 237.5 - Seattle Prep - 3A-2 (Metro)
15. 228.8 - Eastside Catholic - 3A-2 (Metro)
16. 222.8 - Capital - 3A-3 (SSL)
17. 222.5 - North Central - 3A-8 (GSL)
18. 221.3 - Prairie - 3A-4 (GSHL)
19. 212.5 - Roosevelt - 3A-2 (Metro)
20. 191.8 - Bainbridge - 3A-2 (Metro)
21. 189.8 - Yelm - 3A-3 (SSL)
22. 186.3 - Central Kitsap - 3A-3 (SSL)
23. 176.8 - Stadium - 3A-3 (PCL)
24. 175.5 - Peninsula - 3A-3 (SSL)
25. 172.8 - Lincoln (Tacoma) - 3A-3 (PCL)
26. 167.0 - Mountain View - 3A-4 (GSHL)
27. 165.0 - Arlington - 3A-1 (WESCO)
28. 163.8 - Shorecrest - 3A-1 (WESCO)
29. 163.8 - Woodrow Wilson - 3A-3 (PCL)
30. 162.5 - Kelso - 3A-4 (GSHL)
31. 156.3 - Bonney Lake - 3A-3 (PCL)
32. 153.8 - Bishop Blanchet - 3A-2 (Metro)
33. 143.8 - Bethel - 4A-3 (SPSL)
34. 137.5 - Kennewick - 3A-8 (MCC)
35. 133.8 - Southridge - 3A-8 (MCC)
36. 122.5 - Stanwood - 3A-1 (WESCO)
37. 113.8 - Evergreen (Vancouver) - 3A-4 (GSHL)
38. 113.0 - Ballard - 3A-2 (Metro)
39. 110.0 - Timberline - 3A-3 (SSL)
40. 106.3 - Lakes - 3A-3 (PCL)
41.  92.5 - Squalicum - 2A-1 (NWC)
42.  91.3 - Shorewood - 3A-1 (WESCO)
43.  89.8 - West Seattle - 3A-2 (Metro)
44.  87.5 - Ferndale - 3A-1 (NWC)
45.  86.3 - Everett - 3A-1 (WESCO)
46.  83.8 - Rainier Beach - 3A-2 (Metro)
47.  75.0 - North Thurston - 3A-3 (SSL)
48.  72.5 - Hermiston (OR) - 3A-8 (MCC) -- competed in Oregon until 2018
49.  66.0 - Lynnwood - 3A-1 (WESCO)
50.  63.8 - Marysville Pilchuck - 3A-1 (WESCO)
51.  61.8 - Ingraham - 3A-2 (Metro)
52.  57.5 - Shadle Park - 2A-8 (GSL)
53.  56.3 - Meadowdale - 3A-1 (WESCO)
54.  50.0 - Shelton - 2A-4 (EvCo)
55.  50.0 - Hudson's Bay - 2A-4 (GSHL)
56.  48.0 - Nathan Hale - 3A-2 (Metro)
57.  36.3 - Juanita - 3A-2 (KingCo)
58.  26.5 - Oak Harbor - 3A-1 (NWC)
59.  25.5 - Spanaway Lake - 3A-3 (PCL)
60.  22.5 - Marysville Getchell - 3A-1 (WESCO)
61.  17.5 - Rogers (Spokane) - 2A-8 (GSL)
62.  11.3 - Chief Sealth - 3A-2 (Metro)
63.  10.0 - Cleveland - 3A-2 (Metro)
64.  10.0 - Mount Tahoma - 3A-3 (PCL)
65.   7.5 - Franklin - 3A-2 (Metro)
66.   3.0 - Fort Vancouver - 2A-4 (GSHL)
67.   0.0 - Lincoln (Seattle) - 3A-2 (Metro) -- opened up this year

... all 6 schools dropping to 2A were outside the Top-40 of the classification, and both schools moving up to 4A were in the top half (#2 Kamiakin and #33 Bethel). 9 of the last 20 schools remaining in 3A are opting up including 7 members of the Metro League.

Opting-Up Summary:

The Metro League continues to opt-up as a group to stay a single-class league. Of the league's 18 schools, 12 (or 13 if you go by the WIAA count, although they apparently aren't factoring in O'Dea and Holy Names as single-gender schools in their spreadsheet) are opting-up from their assigned 1A or 2A classifications.

Outside of the Metro League, there are only a handful of schools opting up: Lincoln (Tacoma) is the #25 program listed above, Marysville-Pilchuck is only #50/67 but they are remaining with their cross-town rival of Marysville-Getchell and the closer WESCO schools, and Mount Tahoma is opting up for... some reason? even though their fellow struggling program in Tacoma, Henry Foss, already moved down to 2A last cycle and their 2A league wouldn't make any less sense geographically.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold in future cycles, because it seems somewhat likely that 4A drops below the threshold to maintain a 16-team state tournament as early as next cycle and 3A could very well end up with the schools necessary to have a 24-team state tournament, mostly due to the WIAA passing two amendments at the same time which effected how classifications are determined and probably didn't do enough to ensure the combination of amendments will have the sustainable desired effect (refer to the 4A post for a slightly further explanation).