NXN History - Top Programs and Regions

I haven't updated this one in a few years, so I think it's about time to take another look at it.

Scores of the top programs are adjusted averages, where I capped the points at 380 and include any non-qualifying team as scoring 380 points. This is roughly the average score of the #18 team (375 for boys and 392 for girls) and is a way to compare teams that don't qualify as often (e.g. good programs from strong regions), but still favor teams that consistently qualify and place well.

note: I'm also referring to Top-8 instead of Top-10 or Top-Half (11) in this post because that is the point of the greatest scoring differential which makes it the cleanest and most consistent cut-off between teams that are competitive with the Podium Teams and teams that aren't. I also considered using Top-18 instead of Top-15 for the third point of consideration because there are 18 AQ teams every year, but I ended up sticking with Top-15 because it is closer to 330 points (which in a field of 22 teams is generally around the point where teams are still competitive with the top half of the field) and because it gives a clearer definition of regions that aren't struggling to be competitive with the field as a whole -- only having 4 teams per year not make the cut isn't as meaningful when pointing to differences between most of the regions, which are fairly dominated by 2-3 regions on either side which does make it similar to the Podium comparison but not as completely a "These teams are competitive with the majority of the national field" comparison.

Top-10 Boys Programs from 2007-2019: (# Trips, Podium finishes, Top-8 and Top-15 finishes)

1. 255.15 American Fork UT (9 trips: 3/9/9)
2. 268.69 North Central WA (8 trips: 3/8/8)
3. 269.54 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (12 trips: 3/5/8)
4. 270.85 Christian Brothers Academy NJ (10 trips: 2/6/7)
5. 294.69 Great Oak CA (5 trips: 3/5/5)
6. 309.15 The Woodlands TX (10 trips: 1/5/6)
7. 311.62 Arcadia CA (5 trips: 2/3/4)
8. 318.08 Dana Hills CA (8 trips: 1/4/5)
9. 318.69 York IL (7 trips: 1/2/7)
10. 319.15 Davis UT (6 trips: 1/3/5)

honorable mention: Southlake Carroll TX, Wayzata MN, Loudoun Valley VA also average under 330

Top-10 Girls Programs from 2007-2019: (# Trips, Podium finishes, Top-8 and Top-15 finishes)

1. 89.00 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (13 trips: 11/13/13)
2. 214.92 Saratoga Springs NY (12 trips: 5/9/12)
3. 288.38 Great Oak CA (9 trips: 3/6/8)
4. 288.38 Carmel IN (7 trips: 2/7/7)
5. 292.46 Fort Collins CO (7 trips: 1/7/7)
6. 299.46 Saugus CA (7 trips: 3/4/6)
7. 306.46 Naperville North IL (8 trips: 2/3/8)
8. 312.46 Wayzata MN (5 trips: 2/5/5)
9. 323.85 Tatnall DE (6 trips: 2/4/5)
10. 336.85 Jesuit OR (7 trips: 0/1/7)

honorable mention: Southlake Carroll TX, Davis CA, Bozeman MT, Summit OR, Davis UT also average under 350

Average Region Score - Boys Auto-Qualifiers: (and # Podium/Top-8/Top-15 finishes for ALL teams)

1. 215.58 Southwest (9 Podium Teams, 23 Top-8 and 32 Top-15 out of 35)
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2. 251.46 California (7 Podium Teams, 17 Top-8 and 29 Top-15 out of 42)
3. 262.42 Midwest (4 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 30 Top-15 out of 35)
4. 272.96 Northwest (6 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 20 Top-15 out of 29)
5. 280.73 Northeast (2 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 19 Top-15 out of 31)
6. 286.31 New York (3 Podium Teams, 8 Top-8 and 20 Top-15 out of 28)
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7. 325.77 South (3 Podium Teams, 9 Top-8 and 17 Top-15 out of 31)
8. 328.35 Southeast (4 Podium Teams, 5 Top-8 and 14 Top-15 out of 27)
9. 335.46 Heartland (1 Podium Team, 3 Top-8 and 14 Top-15 out of 28)

There has developed 3 mostly distinct tiers of regions on the boys side; the Southwest teams almost always finish in the Top-15 and almost 2/3 finish in the Top-8 which means that as a region the SW clearly stands out above the rest; about 2/3 of the teams from the second tier finish in the Top-15 and a healthy amount finish in the Top-8; the teams in the third tier only finish in the Top-15 about half of the time and although the South is about as good at finishing in the Top-8 as the second tier regions a lot more of their teams are finishing pretty far back.

Average Region Score - Girls Auto-Qualifiers: (and # Podium/Top-8/Top-15 finishes for ALL teams)

1. 150.00 New York (16 Podium Teams, 28 Top-8 and 38 Top-15 out of 39)
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2. 251.69 California (8 Podium Teams, 14 Top-8 and 29 Top-15 out of 37)
3. 254.19 Southwest (4 Podium Teams, 20 Top-8 and 30 Top-15 out of 34)
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4. 274.19 Midwest (4 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 24 Top-15 out of 32)
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5. 313.04 Northwest (2 Podium Teams, 7 Top-8 and 22 Top-15 out of 30)
6. 320.63 Heartland (2 Podium Teams, 6 Top-8 and 16 Top-15 out of 27)
7. 332.54 Southeast (2 Podium Teams, 7 Top-8 and 16 Top-15 out of 30)
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8. 376.58 Northeast (0 Podium Teams, 5 Top-8 and 11 Top-15 out of 29)
9. 382.72 South (1 Podium Team, 4 Top-8 and 9 Top-15 out of 28)

There has developed 4 somewhat murky tiers of regions on the girls side; the New York teams almost always finish in the Top-15, almost 3/4 of their teams finish in the Top-8 and almost half finish on the podium and it's pretty rare that the top NY team doesn't end up the national champion; the second tier regions (CA and SW) have more than 2/3 of their teams finish in the Top-15 and more than 1/3 of their teams finish in the Top-8; the Midwest is between tiers (similar rate of podium finishes as the SW but almost half that of their Top-8 finishes and not nearly as strong in Top-15 finishes, and similar Top-8 finishes as California but only half of their podium finishes), and same with the Northwest in terms of Top-15 finishes but without the podium or even Top-8 finishes which puts the NW in the third tier. The third tier teams have more than half of their teams finish in the Top-15 and about a quarter finish in the Top-8; the fourth tier (Northeast and South) only have about 1/3 of their teams finish in the Top-15 and the Northeast and South combine to have more than half of the #19-22 finishes (13 for the Northeast and 14 for the South, with the only other region that has more than 5 such teams is the Southeast with 9).

Average Region Score - Boys Top-2 Finishers: (and # of At-Large bids received)

1. 208.88 Southwest (9 At-Large Invites)
2. 231.58 California (16 At-Large Invites)
3. 246.88 Midwest (9 At-Large Invites)
4. 270.73 Northwest (3 At-Large Invites)
5. 280.73 Northeast (5 At-Large Invites)
6. 284.00 New York (2 At-Large Invites)
7. 318.58 South (5 At-Large Invites)
8. 328.35 Southeast (1 At-Large Invite)
9. 335.46 Heartland (2 At-Large Invites)

Average Region Score - Girls Top-2 Finishers: (and # of At-Large bids received)

1. 149.19 New York (13 At-Large Invites)
2. 240.96 California (11 At-Large Invites)
3. 242.62 Southwest (8 At-Large Invites)
4. 267.73 Midwest (6 At-Large Invites)
5. 306.19 Northwest (4 At-Large Invites)
6. 320.63 Heartland (0 At-Large Invites)
7. 323.88 Southeast (4 At-Large Invites)
8. 369.12 Northeast (3 At-Large Invites)
9. 380.00 South (3 At-Large Invites)

Additionally, here's a comparison of the % of teams invited that have finished in the Top-3/8/15 (can be derived from the AQ Regional Ranking list):

Boys Regions:

1. Southwest (25.7%, 65.7%, 91.4%)
2. Midwest (11.4%, 37.1%, 85.7%)
3. New York (10.7%, 28.6%, 71.4%)
4. Northwest (20.7%, 44.8%, 69.0%)
5. California (16.7%, 40.5%, 69.0%)
6. Northeast (06.5%, 41.9%, 61.3%)
7. South (09.7%, 29.0%, 54.8%)
8. Southeast (14.8%, 18.5%, 51.9%)
9. Heartland (03.6%, 10.7%, 50.0%)

Girls Regions:

1. New York (41.0%, 71.8%, 97.4%)
2. Southwest (11.8%, 58.8%, 88.2%)
3. California (21.6%, 37.8%, 78.4%)
4. Midwest (12.5%, 40.6%, 75.0%)
5. Northwest (06.7%, 23.3%, 73.3%)
6. Heartland (07.4%, 22.2%, 59.3%)
7. Southeast (06.7%, 23.3%, 53.3%)
8. Northeast (00.0%, 17.2%, 37.9%)
9. South (03.6%, 14.3%, 32.1%)

And, finally, one last comparison: the % of teams from each region (same as above) but only 2013+ for girls and 2012+ for boys, because that's about the time that the depth of the national field become close to what it is today (possibly more on that in a later post).

Boys Regions: (AQ Average, Top-2 Average, # Teams: Podium, Top-8, Top-15)

1. Southwest (210.31, 199.44, 24 teams: 6, 15, 22 or 25.0%, 62.5% and 91.7%)
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2. California (241.31, 221.06, 24 teams: 6, 12, 18 or 25.0%, 50.0% and 75.0%)
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3. Midwest (276.31, 260.81, 21 teams: 0, 7, 16 or 0%, 33.3% and 76.2%)
4. Southeast (269.88, 269.88, 17 teams: 4, 5, 14 or 23.5%, 29.4% and 82.4%)
5. New York (285.06, 281.31, 18 teams: 2, 6, 13 or 11.1%, 33.3% and 72.2%)
6. Northwest (286.19, 282.56, 19 teams: 4, 7, 10 or 21.1%, 36.8% and 52.6%)
7. Northeast (290.94, 290.94, 17 teams: 1, 7, 10 or 5.9%, 41.2% and 58.8%)
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8. Heartland (339.31, 339.31, 18 teams: 1, 2, 9 or 5.6%, 11.1% and 50.0%)
9. South (371.75, 360.06, 18 teams: 0, 3, 8 or 0%, 16.7% and 44.4%)

On the boys side, aside from the Southwest, there isn't really any strong difference between the regions as a whole ... California's front-end talent is still very strong with many podium and Top-8 finishes but not compared to the SW in terms of Top-8 and Top-15 kind of puts the region between the SW and the next tier of teams; a separation in Tier 2 between the SE/MW/NY and NE/NW in terms of Top-15 finishes but not Top-3 (where SE and NW both have as many as the other regions in that tier and below combined) or Top-8 (where they are all very similar); the Heartland and South are still comparatively struggling, though, even though the back end of Tier 2 is close to them in terms of Top-15 finishes.

Girls Regions: (AQ Average, Top-2 Average, # Teams: Podium, Top-8, Top-15)

1. New York (184.36, 184.36, 18 teams: 6, 10, 17 or 33.3%, 55.6% and 94.4%)
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2. California (227.93, 221.86, 19 teams: 5, 10, 17 or 26.3%, 52.6% and 89.5%)
3. Southwest (255.43, 233.93, 21 teams: 3, 13, 18 or 14.3%, 61.9% and 85.7%)
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4. Midwest (257.71, 250.29, 18 teams: 3, 7, 15 or 16.7%, 38.9% and 83.3%)
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5. Northwest (297.57, 284.86, 18 teams: 2, 6, 13 or 11.1%, 33.3% and 72.2%)
6. Heartland (293.20, 293.20, 15 teams: 2, 5, 10 or 13.3%, 33.3% and 66.7%)
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7. Northeast (370.86, 364.00, 16 teams: 0, 2, 4 or 0%, 12.5% and 25.0%)
8. Southeast (375.29, 371.93, 15 teams: 0, 1, 5 or 0%, 6.7% and 33.3%)
9. South (375.69, 373.00, 14 teams: 0, 2, 6 or 0%, 14.3% and 42.9%)

... as you can see, the disparity even on the girls side is nowhere near where it has been overall, particularly when looking beyond average score and looking at the distribution of podium Top-8/15 finishes. The Southwest has overtaken New York in terms of getting Top-8 finishes on the girls side, and California has essentially matched New York as well (although NY or more specifically Fayetteville-Manlius, obviously, is still at the top when it comes to Championships and Podium finishes -- this is more about NY #2/3/4 teams no longer being podium or even top-8 teams every single year: in the last 7 years aside from FM, NY has sent 11 girls teams and ended up with 3 Top-8 finishes including Saratoga's win last year compared to 6 finishes outside the top half of the field ... which is much different from 2007-2012 when there were 3-4 NY girls teams in the top half of the field every single year, or the 2004-2006 pre-Regional years when there may have been as many capable of doing so aside from maybe 2005). The Heartland and Northwest are also essentially on par with the Midwest now in terms of podium and Top-8 finishes (though the Heartland has done so with only 1 At-Large team vs. 4 each from the MW and NW, and the HL still a bit further back in terms of depth as evidenced by total Top-15 finishes). Meanwhile, the Southeast and South have nearly traded places. A clear grouping of regions though with Tier 1 being New York, California and the Southwest; Tier 2 being Midwest, Northeast and Heartland; Tier 3 being South, Southeast and Northeast.

(also, another way to look at it: on average, the SW has 2 teams among the top 8 in both the boys and girls races, CA has 1.5 in both as does the NY girls, while the NY boys and MW/NW boys and girls average 1 per year as does the NE boys, the HL and South on both sides average 0.5 per year as does the SE boys, while the Southeast girls average 0 ... which has some implications for potential At-Large teams: Southeast girls will typically need to show during the season just how great they are by beating teams from other regions, while #3/4 teams from the SW on both sides will have an easier time qualifying if they merely finish close to the #2 team at NXR -- IF it appears to be an "average" year for the SW and SE AQ teams in this example, because every year is different and it could be that the top SE girls look much stronger than usual and so finishing close to them will still put a team in strong consideration, or the SW teams much weaker than usual which lessens the value of finishing close to them without much else of a resume).

In general, the nation as a whole has been much stronger and MUCH more balanced from 2013-2019 on the girls side and 2012-2019 on the boys side... aside from the Fayetteville-Manlius girls and the Southwest boys continuing to more or less dominate the rest.