Thursday, July 9, 2020

WIAA 2A Scholastic Cup Preview for 2020-2024 cycle

In the (Fall) 2020 - (Spring) 2024 cycle, it looks like there will be 61 schools in the 2A classification.

Here's a breakdown of the schools by League (and District), their 2016-2020 Scholastic Cup (athletics scores only) ranking, and a projection as to how many state allocations each district/region will get.

District 1:
10 teams in 2 leagues; Either 2.5 spots to state if they do not combine with District 2, or 4.5 spots if they do.

WESCO (2):
2A#22 Archbishop Murphy
2A#40 Cedarcrest

Northwest Conference (8):
2A#2 Sehome
2A#8 Bellingham
2A#11 Lynden
2A#17 Anacortes
2A#19 Burlington-Edison
3A#42 Squalicum
2A#45 Sedro-Woolley
2A#54 Lakewood


District 2:
7 teams in 1 league; 2 spots to state on their own, 4.5 if they combine with District 1 or 6 if they combine with District 3.

KingCo (7):
2A#18 Sammamish
2A#30 Lindbergh
2A#41 Highline
2A#43 Renton
2A#48 Foster
2A#62 Tyee
2A#64 Evergreen (Seattle)


District 3:
16 teams in 2 leagues; 4 spots to state on their own, or 6 if they combine with District 2.

Olympic (7):
2A#5 North Kitsap
2A#15 Port Angeles
2A#16 Olympic
2A#20 Sequim
2A#32 Kingston
2A#56 Bremerton
2A#60 North Mason

South Puget Sound League (9):
2A#7 White River
2A#13 Fife
2A#21 Steilacoom
4A#56 Enumclaw
2A#37 Franklin Pierce
2A#39 Orting
2A#46 Washington
2A#51 Henry Foss
2A#61 Clover Park


District 4:
16 teams in 2 leagues; 4 spots to state

Evergreen Conference (7):
2A#9 W.F. West
2A#12 Tumwater
2A#26 Black Hills
3A#55 Shelton
2A#49 Aberdeen
2A#55 Centralia
2A#64 Rochester

Greater St. Helens League (9):
2A#3 Columbia River
2A#10 Ridgefield
2A#25 Washougal
2A#28 Woodland
2A#29 Mark Morris
2A#31 Hockinson
3A#55 Hudson's Bay
2A#44 R.A. Long
3A#67 Fort Vancouver


District 5:
7 teams in 1 league.; 2 spots to state on their own, or 3.5 if they combine with District 8

Central Washington Athletic Conference (7):
2A#4 Selah
2A#6 Ellensburg
2A#33 East Valley (Yakima)
2A#36 Othello
2A#38 Ephrata
2A#47 Prosser
2A#59 Grandview


District 8:
6 teams in 1 league; 1.5 spots to state on their own, or 3.5 if they combine with District 5

Greater Spokane League (6):
2A#14 Pullman
2A#24 West Valley (Spokane)
2A#34 East Valley (Spokane)
2A#35 Clarkston
3A#53 Shadle Park
3A#62 Rogers (Spokane)



I don't know yet if District 2 is going to combine with District 1 or District 3 for state qualification purposes, or if they are going to qualify on their own now that they have 7 members. I did notice that District 1 is moving their XC Championships from South Whidbey to Cedarcrest, which would make things more convenient for combining with District 2...

p.s., here is the hypothetical XC District Meet merge from last year using the new realignment ...

Also, keep in mind that not every single team competed at their state qualifier (CWAC limited the teams the GNL could send, but I think that was the only league effected in 2A; West Valley-Spokane wasn't all that far off from the #14 Pullman boys at the GNL)

New 2A Top-20 Boys:
  1. 44 - Rogers (Spokane) - 2A ER #1/3.5 - Qualify
  2. 149 - Sehome - 2A NW #1/4.5 - Qualify
  3. 162 - Steilacoom - 2A D3 #1/4 - Qualify
  4. 176 - Bellingham - 2A NW #2/4.5 - Qualify
  5. 211 - Ellensburg - 2A ER #2/3.5 - Qualify
  6. 239 - Columbia River - 2A D4 #1/4 - Qualify
  7. 249 - Sedro-Woolley - 2A NW #3/4.5 - Qualify
  8. 249 - Enumclaw - 2A D3 #2/4 - Qualify
  9. 261 - Selah - 2A ER #3/3.5 - Qualify
  10. 282 - Lynden - 2A NW #4/4.5 - Qualify
  11. 290 - Tumwater - 2A D4 #2/4 - Qualify
  12. 309 - Ridgefield - 2A D4 #3/4 - Qualify
  13. 317 - Cedarcrest - 2A NW #5/4.5 - ?????
  14. 325 - Pullman - 2A ER #4/3.5 - ?????
  15. 330 - Renton - 2A NW #6/4.5 - DNQ
  16. 340 - Lakewood - 2A NW #7/4.5 - DNQ
  17. 374 - Shelton - 2A D4 #4/4 - Qualify
  18. 378 - Port Angeles - 2A D3 #3/4 - Qualify
  19. 386 - Lindbergh - 2A NW #8/4.5 - DNQ
  20. 389 - Anacortes - 2A NW #9/4.5 - DNQ
All but one qualifier comes from the Top-20 here, with the last one being #22 North Kitsap from District 3. Only one of the top 13/14 would miss out. Good balance for what is generally the most balanced classification (in terms of who doesn't qualify). Notable that #1 Rogers (Spokane) and #17 Shelton are dropping down from 3A, and #8 Enumclaw is dropping down from 4A.

This is with assuming that the GSL and CWAC continue to combine for the Eastern Regional, and the NWC/WESCO and KingCo continue to combine for the Northwest Regional, and also that all leagues are fully represented at their regional meets. 2A looks very much intact, which shouldn't be too surprising as Rogers (Spokane) is trading places with Cheney and unless I'm forgetting a team I think that the next best team to left the classification (Toppenish) was only fifth at their district and the allocations are potentially getting better balanced with some of the District 3 teams moving north to the KingCo and taking an allocation with them to the NW Regional (moving 1 state spot from the weakest district to the strongest).

New 2A Top-20 Girls:

  1. 94 - Ellensburg - 2A ER #1/3.5 - Qualify
  2. 130 - Bellingham - 2A NW #1/4.5 - Qualify
  3. 151 - West Valley (Spokane) - 2A ER #2/3.5 - Qualify
  4. 167 - Sehome - 2A NW #2/4.5 - Qualify
  5. 177 - Pullman - 2A ER #3/3.5 - Qualify
  6. 212 - Anacortes - 2A NW #3/4.5 - Qualify
  7. 248 - Lakewood - 2A NW #4/4.5 - Qualify
  8. 264 - Cedarcrest - 2A NW #5/4.5 - ????
  9. 286 - Hockinson - 2A D4 #1/4 - Qualify
  10. 298 - Port Angeles - 2A D3 #1/4 - Qualify
  11. 302 - Selah - 2A ER #4/3.5 - ????
  12. 324 - Burlington-Edison - 2A NW #6/4.5 - DNQ
  13. 333 - Enumclaw - 2A D3 #2/4 - Qualify
  14. 341 - Shelton - 2A D4 #2/4 - Qualify
  15. 351 - Washougal - 2A D4 #3/4 - Qualify
  16. 358 - White River - 2A D3 #3/4 - Qualify
  17. 358 - Ephrata - 2A ER #5/3.5 - DNQ
  18. 362 - Squalicum - 2A NW #7/4.5 - DNQ
  19. 377 - Washington - 2A D3 #4/4 - Qualify
  20. 380 - Tumwater - 2A D4 #4/4 - Qualify

All of the qualifiers come from the Top-20 for the 2A Girls, but the field would have missed out on two of the Top-12 teams. Notable that #14 Shelton is dropping down from 3A.


Although I obviously used different ratings for this merge compared to the state preview (this was done by looking at how every runner ran at state vs. how they did at districts, while the state preview was purely based on my estimate on how the meets would compare), you can check this post to see how it compared to last year.

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