Sunday, November 3, 2019

Washington State Qualifier Power Merge

Taking a look at who the top teams were from the qualifying meets... here's a 22-team Power Merge taken from all of the 2A-4A meets, along with the next best 18 teams listed by class.

Top 22 Boys Teams:
  1. 78 - Kamiakin - 79:01 - 3A Eastern Regional Champion
  2. 122 - Bishop Blanchet - 79:34 - 3A District 2 Champion
  3. 124 - Camas - 79:28 - 4A Southwest Regional Champion
  4. 200 - Lewis and Clark - 80:19 - 4A Eastern Regional Champion
  5. 213 - North Central - 80:42 - 3A Eastern Regional Runner-up
  6. 238 - Tahoma - 81:05 - 4A Southwest Regional Runner-up
  7. 256 - Central Valley - 80:57 - 4A Eastern Regional Runner-up
  8. 257 - Rogers (Spokane) - 81:08 - 3A Eastern Regional Third Place (DNQ)
  9. 259 - Henry Jackson - 81:13 - 4A District 1 Champion
  10. 287 - Arlington - 81:32 - 3A District 1 Champion
  11. 344 - Newport (Bellevue) - 82:12 - 4A District 2 Champion
  12. 346 - Olympia - 82:14 - 4A Southwest Regional Third Place
  13. 351 - Mead - 82:09 - 4A Eastern Regional Third Place (DNQ)
  14. 352 - Interlake - 82:16 - 3A District 2 Runner-up
  15. 363 - Mt Spokane - 82:19 - 3A Eastern Regional Fourth Place (DNQ)
  16. 363 - Puyallup - 82:26 - 4A Southwest Regional Fourth Place
  17. 390 - Walla Walla - 82:55 - 4A Eastern Regional Fifth Place (DNQ)
  18. 392 - Mt Si - 82:51 - 4A District 2 Runner-up
  19. 396 - Woodinville - 83:00 - 4A District 2 Third Place (DNQ)
  20. 397 - Kamiak - 83:01 - 4A District 1 Runner-up
  21. 398 - Gonzaga Prep - 82:48 - 4A Eastern Regional Fourth Place (DNQ)
  22. 404 - Curtis - 83:09 - 4A Southwest Regional Fifth Place
Honorable Mention (the rest of the Top-40) -
4A: Auburn Mountainview, Eastlake, Eisenhower, Issaquah, Lake Stevens, Sumner, University, West Valley (Yakima)
3A: Ballard, Lake Washington, North Thurston, Seattle Prep, Stadium
2A: Bellingham, Columbia River, Ellensburg, Sehome, Steilacoom


Top 22 Girls Teams:
  1. 42 - North Central - 91:27 - 3A Eastern Regional Champion
  2. 160 - Camas - 95:43 - 4A Southwest Regional Champion
  3. 176 - Redmond - 96:12 - 4A District 2 Champion
  4. 196 - Holy Names Academy - 96:53 - 3A District 2 Champion
  5. 235 - Tahoma - 97:12 - 4A Southwest Regional Runner-up
  6. 257 - Lewis and Clark - 97:43 - 4A Eastern Regional Champion
  7. 257 - Bellarmine Prep - 97:20 - 4A Southwest Regional Third Place
  8. 257 - Richland - 97:21 - 4A Eastern Regional Runner-up
  9. 280 - Ellensburg - 97:37 - 2A Eastern Regional Champion
  10. 301 - Glacier Peak - 98:17 - 4A District 1 Champion
  11. 320 - Eastlake - 98:53 - 4A District 2 Runner-up
  12. 337 - Bishop Blanchet - 99:00 - 3A District 2 Runner-up
  13. 346 - Central Valley - 99:05 - 4A Eastern Regional Third Place (DNQ)
  14. 352 - Marysville Getchell - 99:51 - 3A District 1 Runner-up
  15. 359 - Lake Stevens - 99:25 - 4A District 1 Runner-up
  16. 363 - Emerald Ridge - 101:08 - 4A Southwest Regional Sixth Place
  17. 384 - Bellingham - 99:52 - 2A Northwest Regional Champion
  18. 385 - Edmonds-Woodway - 100:09 - 3A District 1 Third Place
  19. 387 - Bothell - 100:06 - 4A District 2 Third Place (DNQ)
  20. 398 - Arlington - 100:01 - 3A District 1 Champion
  21. 399 - Central Kitsap - 100:07 - 3A Southwest Regional Champion
  22. 416 - Eisenhower - 100:23 - 4A District 6 Champion
Honorable Mention (the rest of the Top-40) -
4A: Hanford, Henry Jackson, Issaquah, Mead, Newport (Bellevue), Skyline, South Kitsap, Thomas Jefferson, Wenatchee
3A: Ballard, Eastside Catholic, Ingraham, Kamiakin, Kennewick, Nathan Hale
2A: Pullman, Sehome, West Valley (Spokane)




EDIT: In bold are teams/individuals that ran (approximate) NXR Championship caliber performances at their state qualifying meet.
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6 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 3, 2019 at 1:19 PM

    Five of the six boys teams tgat were in the top 22 but didn't qualify are from Spokane or at least the East Region. Something needs to be adjusted to get the best teams to state.Teams that can podium shouldn't be at home.

    ReplyDelete
  2. watchoutNovember 3, 2019 at 2:01 PM

    That's a topic I plan on ranting about after the initial classifications come out in December. But in short, I see a few potential solutions to the underlying problem:

    Issue #1: Not enough balance in terms of the # schools in each district/region qualifier.

    Solution #1: The WIAA enforces a minimum size for any state qualifier, using the same criteria for inclusion that the WIAA uses at the State level (re: no more of this "glue meet" crap where CWAC limits the number of GNL teams that can participate, or District 2 limits the number of MCC/GSL teams that can participate, should the districts combine for state qualification). I would propose something along the lines of needing ~20% of the state included in the state qualifier, which would mean at least 10 schools if there are 48-52 schools in the class, 11 if there are 53-57, 12 if there are 58-62, etc.

    Using this year as an example, how would that have played out?

    4A District 1 and 2 would have had to combine, 4A District 3 and 4 would continue to combine, and 4A District 5-8 would all combine (a fully re-established Eastern Regional). The allocations for that scenario would be 7 for the SW and 4.5 each for the NW and ER.
    From the above Top-22, we see that all 5 4A Southwest teams would continue to make it; 4-5 of the 5 District 1/2 teams would make it (compared to the 4 that actually did), and 4-5 of the 5 District 5-8 teams would have made it (compared to the 2 that actually did). In other words, Mead and Gonzaga Prep plus either Walla Walla or Woodinville would be added to the field (depending on which region would get the extra spot this year).

    For 3A, the only change would be that the Eastern Regional teams would have to be added to either the SW or District 2 ... District 2 is closer, so that one makes more sense.
    The adjusted allocations would be 4 from District 1, 7 from District 2 + ER, and 5 from the SW.
    For participation in the large ER + District 2 regional, if the regional field was 16 teams, then it would be 9 from Metro + 3 from KingCo + 2 each from GSL and MCC (or 4 from the combined leagues if they ran the Eastern Regional the week before). If the MCC/GSL combined prior to the State Qualifier, then all 4 Eastern Regional schools would make the field; if not, then Mount Spokane is the only 3A school listed above that wouldn't make it in.



    Issue #2: Related to point #1, there is a massive geographic divide in terms of population in the state - the west side is VASTLY more populated than the east side, resulting in many more schools in the larger classifications, particularly in the 3A/4A levels.

    Solution #2a: Include geographic factors in the classification process, effectively meaning that the Eastern WA schools near the 2A/3A border (Cheney) be allowed do move down to 2A, and the rest be forced up to 4A.

    Solution #2b: All 3A Eastern Washington schools opt up to 4A.

    This becomes much more reasonable starting with the next reclassification cycle, because the # of teams in the state field is now FLUID: If there are 69-83 schools in the classification, there would be 20 teams at state rather than 16. This is a far better situation because it sticks closer to the idea that roughly 1/4 teams get to state, rather than what could end up more like 1/5 without that part of the amendment.

    (sorry, that's a long reply that is better suited for an actual post)

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousNovember 6, 2019 at 1:10 PM

    Those are great solutions - which is why they likely won't be adopted by the WIAA sadly. I agree that "forcing" leagues/districts to create more schools to compete at state-qualifying races would be a great (and fairly easy) solution. Forcing schools to opt up (or allowing them to compete down, based on geography) may be a harder sell (and not as fair). But great ideas, as always. I suggest that you share them with the WIAA and/or the Washington State Coaches Association and it's president Joe Clark, from Lakes HS.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. watchoutNovember 6, 2019 at 6:49 PM

      I think it depends on how you sell it for the "abandon 3A in Eastern Washington" idea. If you sell it as "everyone has to opt up", then yes it would be an extremely hard sell. If you sell it as "take geography into account when dividing up the classifications, and due to there being so few 3A/4A schools east of the Cascades reduce the number of classifications to 5 on the east side (abandoning 3A makes more sense than abandoning 4A or 2A)", I think it's still a hard sell but more manageable - this is essentially what Oregon did for years after they expanded to 6 classes. If you sell it as "reduce the number of classifications to 5" (across the whole state), I think that's the easiest sell of the bunch but it just doesn't address the issue as comprehensively.

      But regardless of how or whether it is addressed, the reality that there is a huge difference in population between west side vs. east side, and that that shows up primarily at the 3A/4A level, and something should probably be done to account for that. Forcing Eastern Regional teams to travel across the pass, or visa versa for District 2 schools, also isn't a great solution but at least it would be something.

      Alternatively, reduce the classifications back down to 5 makes the situation more manageable (it doesn't quite go as far as leaving the west side at 6 and the east at 5, but it accomplishes most of the same idea as long as you combine it with the "must have this many schools in every state qualifier" bit, and if you lower the size requirement down to "district/region qualifies at least 3.0 allocations to state" it doesn't even require eastern schools to travel to the west). That combination yields 21 of the top 22 boys teams making it to state, but it isn't as comprehensive as exemplified by not improving the girls side.

      Delete
  4. AnonymousNovember 6, 2019 at 1:15 PM

    A separate question, have you figured how much the course changes at Sun Willows last year affected times? Did you discovery a consistency between all of the classes, girls and boys? Just eye-balling it based on boys 4A race, it seemed to add ~ 20 seconds.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. watchoutNovember 6, 2019 at 6:07 PM

      There are always some small variations between the different races, so it wasn't completely uniform as to how much slower it was, but the overall profile was around 20 seconds slower. The 4A boys race was actually the closest in comparison being only about 10 seconds slower (keep in mind that it was a stronger field in 2018 than in it was 2017 due in large part to District 2 getting one of District 6's allocations). The rest of the boys races were 20-25 seconds slower, and the girls races 30-40 seconds slower.

      It will be interesting to see how the course runs this year. Still too early to say for sure just how much slower this layout is than the previous version, but I think it's safe to say it is back to being at least as slow as the 2008-2014 era course... maybe slightly slower, but probably not by much. I'm guessing the course will be around 15-20 seconds slower than the 2017.

      Delete

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