Since the first NXR region is coming up this weekend (the Heartland meet in South Dakota), I took a quick look at how the girls teams around the nation compare today, including a simulated psuedo-NXN field (I included the top 2 teams from each region, left in no more than 4 teams from any region, and included all of the regional #3/4 teams that look to be vying for an At-Large spot which gave me a field of 24).
Here's a list of the tiers, and their scoring range. Potential At-Large teams, given these projections, in bold.
Tier 1 (160-240 points) - Potential NXN Trophy finishers
NW (3): North Central WA, Summit OR, Boise ID
SW (2): Niwot CO, Lone Peak UT
NY (2): Fayetteville-Manlius NY, Saratoga Springs NY
MW (1): Beaver Creek OH
CA (1): Great Oak CA
Tier 2 (300-340 points) - Potential NXN Top 10/15, and potential At-Large invitees
NW (4): Jesuit OR, Lincoln OR, Bozeman MT and Timberline (Boise) ID ... the NW is VERY deep at the top this year
CA (3): Buchanan CA, St. Francis CA, Newbury Park CA
SW (2-3): Arapahoe CO, Battle Mountain CO and maybe Cherry Creek CO (they were just off this group at their state meet)
Tier 3 (380-425 points):
SE (2+): Loudoun Valley VA, Pine Crest FL (and maybe Green Hope NC)
MW (4+): East Grand Rapids MI, Downers Grove South IL, Naperville North IL, Ann Arbor Pioneer MI (and maybe Yorkville IL)
HL (1): Edina MN
... and maybe some NW/SW/CA teams that aren't looking like Top-4 regional teams
Tier 4 (440-480 points):
HL (2+): Muskego WI, Wayzata MN, and maybe St. Michael-Albertville MN
SO (2+): Southlake Carroll TX, Prosper TX, and maybe Kingwood/Vandegrift/Coppel
NE (2): North Allegheny PA, Ridgewood NJ
NY (1+): East Aurora NY
... and maybe some other NW/SW/CA/MW/SE/NY teams that aren't looking like they'll make NXN
Interesting that all of the top potential At-Large teams on the girls side are in the West (I don't think the story will be the same on the boys side, as a quick look suggests the Northeast is looking pretty solid this year and the Midwest is always a tough region)... but there haven't really been a third team from the NY to pop up, the SE/NE/SO teams aren't all that strong, the top Illinois teams have been beaten convincingly by SW teams outside the region's projected AQ squads, and the MW #3 team beat all the HL Top-4 teams, so unless someone comes out of the woodwork it's going to be a quartet of teams west of Texas that make the cut. Smart money, then, would probably be on the 4 teams non-AQ teams from the NW/SW/CA that finish closest to the top 2 at their regional meets -- likely at least one from each region, with the most competitive #4 earning the last spot.
note: for what it's worth I also checked the latest Dyestat national rankings (I would have also looked at milesplit for additional comparison, but those rankings are behind a paywall... *sigh*... way to promote the sport, guys...), but they are a bit out of date (Oct. 24) and are probably going to be updated this week which would include the first major round of State meets and the return of Allie Janke to North Central's lineup, all of which should be pretty favorable to the NW/SW regions. The main difference between what I have and what Dyestat has, beyond taking into account those two key points, is that they have remained higher on the top two Illinois teams than I have despite the results of Griak (Cherry Creek CO beat Naperville North IL 75-165) and Desert Twilight (Niwot CO 80, Cherokee Trail CO 97, Downers Grove South IL 123). It will be interesting to see how that changes in this week's update, though I'm guessing they won't rank Jesuit OR and Lincoln OR quite as highly as I have them until after the state meet.
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