NXN History - Top Programs and Regions

I haven't updated this one in a few years, so I think it's about time to take another look at it.

Scores of the top programs are adjusted averages, where I capped the points at 380 and include any non-qualifying team as scoring 380 points. This is roughly the average score of the #18 team (375 for boys and 392 for girls) and is a way to compare teams that don't qualify as often (e.g. good programs from strong regions), but still favor teams that consistently qualify and place well.

note: I'm also referring to Top-8 instead of Top-10 or Top-Half (11) in this post because that is the point of the greatest scoring differential which makes it the cleanest and most consistent cut-off between teams that are competitive with the Podium Teams and teams that aren't. I also considered using Top-18 instead of Top-15 for the third point of consideration because there are 18 AQ teams every year, but I ended up sticking with Top-15 because it is closer to 330 points (which in a field of 22 teams is generally around the point where teams are still competitive with the top half of the field) and because it gives a clearer definition of regions that aren't struggling to be competitive with the field as a whole -- only having 4 teams per year not make the cut isn't as meaningful when pointing to differences between most of the regions, which are fairly dominated by 2-3 regions on either side which does make it similar to the Podium comparison but not as completely a "These teams are competitive with the majority of the national field" comparison.

Top-10 Boys Programs from 2007-2019: (# Trips, Podium finishes, Top-8 and Top-15 finishes)

1. 255.15 American Fork UT (9 trips: 3/9/9)
2. 268.69 North Central WA (8 trips: 3/8/8)
3. 269.54 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (12 trips: 3/5/8)
4. 270.85 Christian Brothers Academy NJ (10 trips: 2/6/7)
5. 294.69 Great Oak CA (5 trips: 3/5/5)
6. 309.15 The Woodlands TX (10 trips: 1/5/6)
7. 311.62 Arcadia CA (5 trips: 2/3/4)
8. 318.08 Dana Hills CA (8 trips: 1/4/5)
9. 318.69 York IL (7 trips: 1/2/7)
10. 319.15 Davis UT (6 trips: 1/3/5)

honorable mention: Southlake Carroll TX, Wayzata MN, Loudoun Valley VA also average under 330

Top-10 Girls Programs from 2007-2019: (# Trips, Podium finishes, Top-8 and Top-15 finishes)

1. 89.00 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (13 trips: 11/13/13)
2. 214.92 Saratoga Springs NY (12 trips: 5/9/12)
3. 288.38 Great Oak CA (9 trips: 3/6/8)
4. 288.38 Carmel IN (7 trips: 2/7/7)
5. 292.46 Fort Collins CO (7 trips: 1/7/7)
6. 299.46 Saugus CA (7 trips: 3/4/6)
7. 306.46 Naperville North IL (8 trips: 2/3/8)
8. 312.46 Wayzata MN (5 trips: 2/5/5)
9. 323.85 Tatnall DE (6 trips: 2/4/5)
10. 336.85 Jesuit OR (7 trips: 0/1/7)

honorable mention: Southlake Carroll TX, Davis CA, Bozeman MT, Summit OR, Davis UT also average under 350

Average Region Score - Boys Auto-Qualifiers: (and # Podium/Top-8/Top-15 finishes for ALL teams)

1. 215.58 Southwest (9 Podium Teams, 23 Top-8 and 32 Top-15 out of 35)
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2. 251.46 California (7 Podium Teams, 17 Top-8 and 29 Top-15 out of 42)
3. 262.42 Midwest (4 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 30 Top-15 out of 35)
4. 272.96 Northwest (6 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 20 Top-15 out of 29)
5. 280.73 Northeast (2 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 19 Top-15 out of 31)
6. 286.31 New York (3 Podium Teams, 8 Top-8 and 20 Top-15 out of 28)
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7. 325.77 South (3 Podium Teams, 9 Top-8 and 17 Top-15 out of 31)
8. 328.35 Southeast (4 Podium Teams, 5 Top-8 and 14 Top-15 out of 27)
9. 335.46 Heartland (1 Podium Team, 3 Top-8 and 14 Top-15 out of 28)

There has developed 3 mostly distinct tiers of regions on the boys side; the Southwest teams almost always finish in the Top-15 and almost 2/3 finish in the Top-8 which means that as a region the SW clearly stands out above the rest; about 2/3 of the teams from the second tier finish in the Top-15 and a healthy amount finish in the Top-8; the teams in the third tier only finish in the Top-15 about half of the time and although the South is about as good at finishing in the Top-8 as the second tier regions a lot more of their teams are finishing pretty far back.

Average Region Score - Girls Auto-Qualifiers: (and # Podium/Top-8/Top-15 finishes for ALL teams)

1. 150.00 New York (16 Podium Teams, 28 Top-8 and 38 Top-15 out of 39)
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2. 251.69 California (8 Podium Teams, 14 Top-8 and 29 Top-15 out of 37)
3. 254.19 Southwest (4 Podium Teams, 20 Top-8 and 30 Top-15 out of 34)
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4. 274.19 Midwest (4 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 24 Top-15 out of 32)
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5. 313.04 Northwest (2 Podium Teams, 7 Top-8 and 22 Top-15 out of 30)
6. 320.63 Heartland (2 Podium Teams, 6 Top-8 and 16 Top-15 out of 27)
7. 332.54 Southeast (2 Podium Teams, 7 Top-8 and 16 Top-15 out of 30)
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8. 376.58 Northeast (0 Podium Teams, 5 Top-8 and 11 Top-15 out of 29)
9. 382.72 South (1 Podium Team, 4 Top-8 and 9 Top-15 out of 28)

There has developed 4 somewhat murky tiers of regions on the girls side; the New York teams almost always finish in the Top-15, almost 3/4 of their teams finish in the Top-8 and almost half finish on the podium and it's pretty rare that the top NY team doesn't end up the national champion; the second tier regions (CA and SW) have more than 2/3 of their teams finish in the Top-15 and more than 1/3 of their teams finish in the Top-8; the Midwest is between tiers (similar rate of podium finishes as the SW but almost half that of their Top-8 finishes and not nearly as strong in Top-15 finishes, and similar Top-8 finishes as California but only half of their podium finishes), and same with the Northwest in terms of Top-15 finishes but without the podium or even Top-8 finishes which puts the NW in the third tier. The third tier teams have more than half of their teams finish in the Top-15 and about a quarter finish in the Top-8; the fourth tier (Northeast and South) only have about 1/3 of their teams finish in the Top-15 and the Northeast and South combine to have more than half of the #19-22 finishes (13 for the Northeast and 14 for the South, with the only other region that has more than 5 such teams is the Southeast with 9).

Average Region Score - Boys Top-2 Finishers: (and # of At-Large bids received)

1. 208.88 Southwest (9 At-Large Invites)
2. 231.58 California (16 At-Large Invites)
3. 246.88 Midwest (9 At-Large Invites)
4. 270.73 Northwest (3 At-Large Invites)
5. 280.73 Northeast (5 At-Large Invites)
6. 284.00 New York (2 At-Large Invites)
7. 318.58 South (5 At-Large Invites)
8. 328.35 Southeast (1 At-Large Invite)
9. 335.46 Heartland (2 At-Large Invites)

Average Region Score - Girls Top-2 Finishers: (and # of At-Large bids received)

1. 149.19 New York (13 At-Large Invites)
2. 240.96 California (11 At-Large Invites)
3. 242.62 Southwest (8 At-Large Invites)
4. 267.73 Midwest (6 At-Large Invites)
5. 306.19 Northwest (4 At-Large Invites)
6. 320.63 Heartland (0 At-Large Invites)
7. 323.88 Southeast (4 At-Large Invites)
8. 369.12 Northeast (3 At-Large Invites)
9. 380.00 South (3 At-Large Invites)

Additionally, here's a comparison of the % of teams invited that have finished in the Top-3/8/15 (can be derived from the AQ Regional Ranking list):

Boys Regions:

1. Southwest (25.7%, 65.7%, 91.4%)
2. Midwest (11.4%, 37.1%, 85.7%)
3. New York (10.7%, 28.6%, 71.4%)
4. Northwest (20.7%, 44.8%, 69.0%)
5. California (16.7%, 40.5%, 69.0%)
6. Northeast (06.5%, 41.9%, 61.3%)
7. South (09.7%, 29.0%, 54.8%)
8. Southeast (14.8%, 18.5%, 51.9%)
9. Heartland (03.6%, 10.7%, 50.0%)

Girls Regions:

1. New York (41.0%, 71.8%, 97.4%)
2. Southwest (11.8%, 58.8%, 88.2%)
3. California (21.6%, 37.8%, 78.4%)
4. Midwest (12.5%, 40.6%, 75.0%)
5. Northwest (06.7%, 23.3%, 73.3%)
6. Heartland (07.4%, 22.2%, 59.3%)
7. Southeast (06.7%, 23.3%, 53.3%)
8. Northeast (00.0%, 17.2%, 37.9%)
9. South (03.6%, 14.3%, 32.1%)

And, finally, one last comparison: the % of teams from each region (same as above) but only 2013+ for girls and 2012+ for boys, because that's about the time that the depth of the national field become close to what it is today (possibly more on that in a later post).

Boys Regions: (AQ Average, Top-2 Average, # Teams: Podium, Top-8, Top-15)

1. Southwest (210.31, 199.44, 24 teams: 6, 15, 22 or 25.0%, 62.5% and 91.7%)
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2. California (241.31, 221.06, 24 teams: 6, 12, 18 or 25.0%, 50.0% and 75.0%)
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3. Midwest (276.31, 260.81, 21 teams: 0, 7, 16 or 0%, 33.3% and 76.2%)
4. Southeast (269.88, 269.88, 17 teams: 4, 5, 14 or 23.5%, 29.4% and 82.4%)
5. New York (285.06, 281.31, 18 teams: 2, 6, 13 or 11.1%, 33.3% and 72.2%)
6. Northwest (286.19, 282.56, 19 teams: 4, 7, 10 or 21.1%, 36.8% and 52.6%)
7. Northeast (290.94, 290.94, 17 teams: 1, 7, 10 or 5.9%, 41.2% and 58.8%)
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8. Heartland (339.31, 339.31, 18 teams: 1, 2, 9 or 5.6%, 11.1% and 50.0%)
9. South (371.75, 360.06, 18 teams: 0, 3, 8 or 0%, 16.7% and 44.4%)

On the boys side, aside from the Southwest, there isn't really any strong difference between the regions as a whole ... California's front-end talent is still very strong with many podium and Top-8 finishes but not compared to the SW in terms of Top-8 and Top-15 kind of puts the region between the SW and the next tier of teams; a separation in Tier 2 between the SE/MW/NY and NE/NW in terms of Top-15 finishes but not Top-3 (where SE and NW both have as many as the other regions in that tier and below combined) or Top-8 (where they are all very similar); the Heartland and South are still comparatively struggling, though, even though the back end of Tier 2 is close to them in terms of Top-15 finishes.

Girls Regions: (AQ Average, Top-2 Average, # Teams: Podium, Top-8, Top-15)

1. New York (184.36, 184.36, 18 teams: 6, 10, 17 or 33.3%, 55.6% and 94.4%)
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2. California (227.93, 221.86, 19 teams: 5, 10, 17 or 26.3%, 52.6% and 89.5%)
3. Southwest (255.43, 233.93, 21 teams: 3, 13, 18 or 14.3%, 61.9% and 85.7%)
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4. Midwest (257.71, 250.29, 18 teams: 3, 7, 15 or 16.7%, 38.9% and 83.3%)
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5. Northwest (297.57, 284.86, 18 teams: 2, 6, 13 or 11.1%, 33.3% and 72.2%)
6. Heartland (293.20, 293.20, 15 teams: 2, 5, 10 or 13.3%, 33.3% and 66.7%)
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7. Northeast (370.86, 364.00, 16 teams: 0, 2, 4 or 0%, 12.5% and 25.0%)
8. Southeast (375.29, 371.93, 15 teams: 0, 1, 5 or 0%, 6.7% and 33.3%)
9. South (375.69, 373.00, 14 teams: 0, 2, 6 or 0%, 14.3% and 42.9%)

... as you can see, the disparity even on the girls side is nowhere near where it has been overall, particularly when looking beyond average score and looking at the distribution of podium Top-8/15 finishes. The Southwest has overtaken New York in terms of getting Top-8 finishes on the girls side, and California has essentially matched New York as well (although NY or more specifically Fayetteville-Manlius, obviously, is still at the top when it comes to Championships and Podium finishes -- this is more about NY #2/3/4 teams no longer being podium or even top-8 teams every single year: in the last 7 years aside from FM, NY has sent 11 girls teams and ended up with 3 Top-8 finishes including Saratoga's win last year compared to 6 finishes outside the top half of the field ... which is much different from 2007-2012 when there were 3-4 NY girls teams in the top half of the field every single year, or the 2004-2006 pre-Regional years when there may have been as many capable of doing so aside from maybe 2005). The Heartland and Northwest are also essentially on par with the Midwest now in terms of podium and Top-8 finishes (though the Heartland has done so with only 1 At-Large team vs. 4 each from the MW and NW, and the HL still a bit further back in terms of depth as evidenced by total Top-15 finishes). Meanwhile, the Southeast and South have nearly traded places. A clear grouping of regions though with Tier 1 being New York, California and the Southwest; Tier 2 being Midwest, Northeast and Heartland; Tier 3 being South, Southeast and Northeast.

(also, another way to look at it: on average, the SW has 2 teams among the top 8 in both the boys and girls races, CA has 1.5 in both as does the NY girls, while the NY boys and MW/NW boys and girls average 1 per year as does the NE boys, the HL and South on both sides average 0.5 per year as does the SE boys, while the Southeast girls average 0 ... which has some implications for potential At-Large teams: Southeast girls will typically need to show during the season just how great they are by beating teams from other regions, while #3/4 teams from the SW on both sides will have an easier time qualifying if they merely finish close to the #2 team at NXR -- IF it appears to be an "average" year for the SW and SE AQ teams in this example, because every year is different and it could be that the top SE girls look much stronger than usual and so finishing close to them will still put a team in strong consideration, or the SW teams much weaker than usual which lessens the value of finishing close to them without much else of a resume).

In general, the nation as a whole has been much stronger and MUCH more balanced from 2013-2019 on the girls side and 2012-2019 on the boys side... aside from the Fayetteville-Manlius girls and the Southwest boys continuing to more or less dominate the rest.

Girls NXN Nationals Results/Ratings

Best girls individual field ever led to what might have been the best race ever? I thought the 2013 NXN race between Alexa Efraimson, Elise Cranny and Sarah Baxter battle was incredible and be hard to overtake, but with the tight finish today I think this one was even better. Katelynn Tuohy found her match in Sydney Thorvaldson and Taylor Ewert, but held on despite late charges as all three finished within less than a second. I don't know if that is the biggest story, or if the Saratoga Springs NY girls huge performance should take the cake today. Saratoga won their first team title since the very first NTN/NXN race in 2004, and did so by a good margin against a tremendous field.

As the girls race ran second today, the course was chewed up and notably more muddy than in the boys race as rain continued to come down.

Ratings estimate: 200.0 = 15:46

(edit: added estimated equivalent 3200m times for better comparison)

Girls Teams:

1. 78 - KINETIC - 92:30.1 - NXR New York Runner-up - 148.0
2. 160 - CENTRAL OREGON - 94:09.2 - NXR Northwest Champion - 141.7
3. 171 - NIWOT - 94:30.9 - NXR Southwest Third Place - 140.3
4. 188 - LONE PEAK - 95:10.2 - NXR Southwest Champion - 137.8
5. 201 - CLOVIS - 94:56.4 - California D1 Champion - 138.7
6. 204 - NORTH SPOKANE - 95:28.9 - NXR Northwest Runner-up - 136.6
7. 206 - MANLIUS - 94:37.9 - NXR New York Champion - 139.9
8. 242 - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 96:10.1 - NXR Southwest Runner-up - 134.0
9. 266 - TEMECULA - 96:39.2 - California D1 Runner-up - 132.2
10. 310 - PURCELLVILLE - 97:16.4 - NXR Southeast Champion - 129.8
11. 320 - PORTLAND - 97:26.4 - NXR Northwest Third Place - 129.2
12. 323 - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 97:06.7 - NXR Midwest Champion - 130.4
13. 327 - BEAVERCREEK - 96:57.7 - NXR Midwest Runner-up - 131.0
14. 333 - EDINA - 97:25.3 - NXR Heartland Champion - 129.3
15. 353 - FT. LAUDERDALE - 98:12.1 - NXR Southeast Runner-up - 126.3
16. 354 - MUSKEGO - 97:58.0 - NXR Heartland Runner-up - 127.2
17. 358 - NEWBURY PARK - 97:58.2 - California D2 Champion - 127.2
18. 359 - FOREST PARK - 97:25.0 - NXR Northwest Fourth Place - 129.3
19. 384 - HUNTERDON - 98:34.7 - NXR Northeast Champion - 124.9
20. 390 - RIDGEWOOD - 98:19.8 - NXR Northeast Runner-up - 125.8
21. 426 - CARROLL - 98:58.4 - NXR South Runner-up - 123.4
22. 483 - PROSPER - 99:58.0 - NXR South Champion - 119.6

Girls Individuals:

1. 170.7 - 17:18.4 - KATELYN TUOHY - NEW YORK - 9:52
2. 170.5 - 17:19.1 - TAYLOR EWERT - BEAVERCREEK - 9:53
3. 170.4 - 17:19.4 - SYDNEY THORVALDSON - NORTHWEST - 9:53
4. 167.5 - 17:28.4 - CLAIRE WALTERS - MANLIUS - 9:58
5. 165.1 - 17:35.9 - MARLEE STARLIPER - NORTHEAST - 10:02
6. 165.0 - 17:36.4 - CARLIE DOROSTKAR - CALIFORNIA - 10:03
7. 164.3 - 17:38.6 - BROOKE RAUBER - NEW YORK - 10:04
8. 163.7 - 17:40.5 - CHARLOTTE BEDNAR - NORTHEAST - 10:05
9. 162.7 - 17:43.7 - KATE PETERS - FOREST PARK - 10:07
10. 160.6 - 17:50.2 - FIFI MAX - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:11
11. 160.3 - 17:51.3 - ERIN STRZELECKI - MIDWEST - 10:11
12. 158.7 - 17:56.2 - CORIE SMITH - CLOVIS - 10:14
13. 158.6 - 17:56.5 - JENNA SCHULZ - NEW YORK - 10:14
14. 158.0 - 17:58.3 - ELLA KURTO - KINETIC - 10:15
15. 157.9 - 17:58.7 - SAMREE DISHON - NIWOT - 10:15
16. 157.9 - 17:58.8 - ANNALYSSA CRAIN - MIDWEST - 10:15
17. 157.0 - 18:01.5 - TATUM DAVID - MIDWEST - 10:17
18. 156.7 - 18:02.4 - JULIA DAVID-SMITH - NORTHWEST - 10:17
19. 156.7 - 18:02.6 - SARAH CONNELLY - NEW YORK - 10:18
20. 156.1 - 18:04.4 - KELSEY HARRINGTON - SOUTHEAST - 10:19
21. 155.3 - 18:07.0 - MEGHAN FORD - HEARTLAND - 10:20
22. 155.0 - 18:07.9 - MATTIE GEDDES - NORTHWEST - 10:21
23. 154.7 - 18:08.8 - BRYNN BROWN - SOUTH - 10:21
24. 154.6 - 18:09.1 - SASHA NEGLIA - SOUTHEAST - 10:21
25. 152.1 - 18:16.9 - SAMANTHA BLAIR - SOUTHWEST - 10:26
26. 152.1 - 18:17.2 - ELIZA ARRINGTON - LONE PEAK - 10:26
27. 151.9 - 18:17.8 - LAUREN PING - SOUTHWEST - 10:26
28. 151.8 - 18:18.1 - ALEX KLOS - CALIFORNIA - 10:26
29. 151.3 - 18:19.5 - ANA WEAVER - HEARTLAND - 10:27
30. 150.2 - 18:23.0 - KORA MALECEK - HEARTLAND - 10:29
31. 149.8 - 18:24.2 - RILEY STEWART - SOUTHWEST - 10:30
32. 149.7 - 18:24.6 - LEA HATCHER - SOUTHEAST - 10:30
33. 149.6 - 18:24.9 - SAVANNAH SCRIVEN - CALIFORNIA - 10:30
34. 149.5 - 18:25.2 - MARIE HOSTETLER - HEARTLAND - 10:30
35. 149.2 - 18:26.1 - McKINLEY WHEELER - KINETIC - 10:31
36. 149.0 - 18:26.8 - MAGGIE GAMBOA - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 10:31
37. 148.6 - 18:28.0 - COLLEEN STEGMANN - SOUTH - 10:32
38. 148.6 - 18:28.0 - MACKENZIE HART - KINETIC - 10:32
39. 148.6 - 18:28.2 - SHERIDAN WHEELER - KINETIC - 10:32
40. 147.2 - 18:32.6 - AVERY CLOVER - SOUTH - 10:35
41. 147.1 - 18:32.9 - ZOE DUFFUS - MIDWEST - 10:35
42. 146.4 - 18:34.9 - TEAGHAN KNOX - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:36
43. 146.3 - 18:35.2 - JENNA MULHERN - NORTHEAST - 10:36
44. 145.9 - 18:36.6 - CHLOE GONZALEZ - HUNTERDON - 10:37
45. 144.3 - 18:41.7 - MEG MADISON - NORTHEAST - 10:40
46. 144.0 - 18:42.7 - TSION YARED - FT. LAUDERDALE - 10:40
47. 143.7 - 18:43.4 - LANIE SZUCH - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 10:41
48. 143.5 - 18:44.2 - ATHENA YOUNG - SOUTHEAST - 10:41
49. 143.4 - 18:44.4 - ERINN HILL - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:41
50. 143.1 - 18:45.3 - KATELYNNE HART - MIDWEST - 10:42
51. 143.1 - 18:45.4 - ANNA FENSKE - HEARTLAND - 10:42
52. 142.6 - 18:47.0 - PHOEBE WHITE - MANLIUS - 10:43
53. 142.1 - 18:48.5 - REAGAN GARDNER - LONE PEAK - 10:44
54. 142.1 - 18:48.7 - SYDNEY SUNDGREN - CLOVIS - 10:44
55. 142.1 - 18:48.7 - TAYLOR WHITFIELD - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 10:44
56. 141.9 - 18:49.1 - EVA JESS - SOUTH - 10:44
57. 141.8 - 18:49.5 - KELLI GAFFNEY - TEMECULA - 10:44
58. 141.7 - 18:49.7 - AVA GORDON - PURCELLVILLE - 10:44
59. 141.5 - 18:50.6 - SAVANNAH ROARK - BEAVERCREEK - 10:45
60. 141.1 - 18:51.6 - LUCCA FULKERSON - NIWOT - 10:46
61. 141.1 - 18:51.7 - TAYLOR JAMES - NIWOT - 10:46
62. 141.1 - 18:51.8 - KYLIE HARTNETT - NORTHWEST - 10:46
63. 140.9 - 18:52.5 - ALLIE JANKE - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:46
64. 140.7 - 18:52.9 - REESE FAHYS - NORTHEAST - 10:46
65. 140.7 - 18:53.1 - HARPER MCCLAIN - CALIFORNIA - 10:46
66. 140.1 - 18:55.0 - HANNAH KAERCHER - MANLIUS - 10:48
67. 140.0 - 18:55.1 - MARIE TAYLOR - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:48
68. 139.9 - 18:55.4 - AMELU RUFF - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:48
69. 139.7 - 18:56.2 - CAMRYN WENNERSTEN - RIDGEWOOD - 10:48
70. 139.4 - 18:57.0 - RILEY CHAMBERLAIN - CALIFORNIA - 10:49
71. 139.1 - 18:58.0 - CHLOE FOERSTER - PORTLAND - 10:49
72. 138.8 - 18:58.9 - JASPER FIEVET - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:50
73. 138.8 - 18:59.1 - JODIE PIERCE - BEAVERCREEK - 10:50
74. 138.4 - 19:00.2 - KATE SPERKA - MUSKEGO - 10:50
75. 138.2 - 19:00.8 - HANNAH MINIUTTI - SOUTHEAST - 10:51
76. 138.0 - 19:01.5 - MARY VELNER - EDINA - 10:51
77. 137.8 - 19:02.0 - HALEIGH MORALES - NEW YORK - 10:52
78. 137.4 - 19:03.4 - GRACE HUTCHISON - CLOVIS - 10:52
79. 137.1 - 19:04.2 - MAGGIE WAGNER - EDINA - 10:53
80. 136.7 - 19:05.7 - CAMERON MCCONNELL - SOUTHWEST - 10:54
81. 135.7 - 19:08.9 - AUBRIE NEX - TEMECULA - 10:55
82. 135.5 - 19:09.5 - EMILY BUSH - KINETIC - 10:56
83. 135.3 - 19:10.1 - AUBREY O'CONNELL - PROSPER - 10:56
84. 135.2 - 19:10.2 - HAILEY GOLMON - NEWBURY PARK - 10:56
85. 134.9 - 19:11.2 - SAM MCDONNELL - NEWBURY PARK - 10:57
86. 134.9 - 19:11.3 - KRIANNE MCBRIDE - SOUTH - 10:57
87. 134.6 - 19:12.2 - CAROLINE MENDYK - CLOVIS - 10:57
88. 134.5 - 19:12.5 - CARLEE HANSEN - SOUTHWEST - 10:58
89. 134.0 - 19:14.2 - ELIZA MASON - LONE PEAK - 10:58
90. 133.5 - 19:15.6 - BARRETT JUSTEMA - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:59
91. 133.4 - 19:16.0 - BROOKE WILSON - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 10:59
92. 133.2 - 19:16.6 - MAYA BELEZNAY - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:00
93. 132.5 - 19:18.7 - BRITTANY HELM - MUSKEGO - 11:01
94. 132.1 - 19:20.0 - KENZIE MELDRUM - LONE PEAK - 11:02
95. 132.1 - 19:20.1 - RICKY FETTEROLF - PURCELLVILLE - 11:02
96. 132.1 - 19:20.2 - EVA KLINGBEIL - NIWOT - 11:02
97. 131.8 - 19:21.1 - MIA KANE - FOREST PARK - 11:02
98. 131.2 - 19:23.0 - ELISE ABBE - PURCELLVILLE - 11:03
99. 131.2 - 19:23.1 - SAGE BROOKS - NORTHWEST - 11:04
100. 130.6 - 19:24.8 - MAGDALYN HOFFMAN - HUNTERDON - 11:05
101. 130.5 - 19:25.0 - MOLLY GRANT - PORTLAND - 11:05
102. 130.2 - 19:26.1 - AISHLING FABIAN - TEMECULA - 11:05
103. 130.1 - 19:26.3 - DEBBIE LUCCHETTI - MANLIUS - 11:05
104. 129.9 - 19:27.1 - ALEXIS KEBBE - PORTLAND - 11:06
105. 129.9 - 19:27.1 - HEIDI NIELSON - SOUTH - 11:06
106. 129.6 - 19:27.9 - RACHEL HELM - MUSKEGO - 11:06
107. 129.4 - 19:28.7 - AMELIA PHILOFSKY - NIWOT - 11:07
108. 129.3 - 19:28.9 - JOELLE MCDONALD - NIWOT - 11:07
109. 129.2 - 19:29.2 - JENNA HOLLAND - CARROLL - 11:07
110. 129.1 - 19:29.6 - MAGGIE WILLIAMS - CENTRAL OREGON - 11:07
111. 129.0 - 19:29.8 - MAGGIE BENNETT - PORTLAND - 11:07
112. 128.9 - 19:30.2 - LUCY JENKS - NORTHEAST - 11:08
113. 128.9 - 19:30.3 - MONET WINGER - LONE PEAK - 11:08
114. 128.8 - 19:30.4 - EMILY FAULHABER - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:08
115. 128.6 - 19:31.1 - LAUREN COSSACK - EDINA - 11:08
116. 128.2 - 19:32.4 - KAITLYNN WOLFE - SOUTHEAST - 11:09
117. 128.2 - 19:32.5 - FIONA HAWKINS - NEWBURY PARK - 11:09
118. 128.1 - 19:32.6 - AUDREY MENDRYS - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:09
119. 127.3 - 19:35.3 - KATHERINE MCELANEY - CARROLL - 11:11
120. 127.2 - 19:35.7 - OLIVIA SHATTUCK - RIDGEWOOD - 11:11
121. 126.9 - 19:36.6 - AUDREY DANG - TEMECULA - 11:11
122. 126.6 - 19:37.4 - SADIE GONZALES - PROSPER - 11:12
123. 126.4 - 19:38.1 - ARIANNA GRIFITHS - TEMECULA - 11:12
124. 126.0 - 19:39.3 - ISABELLA PROSCENO - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:13
125. 125.6 - 19:40.7 - CAMPBELL PETERSEN - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:14
126. 125.6 - 19:40.7 - MOLLY MORTON - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:14
127. 125.4 - 19:41.2 - SCARLET FETTEROLF - PURCELLVILLE - 11:14
128. 125.3 - 19:41.7 - KAYLIE COX - CARROLL - 11:14
129. 125.3 - 19:41.7 - ANNAMARIE TRETOLA - RIDGEWOOD - 11:14
130. 124.9 - 19:42.7 - ASHLEY JONES - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:15
131. 124.7 - 19:43.4 - CATHERINE MONGAN - KINETIC - 11:15
132. 124.6 - 19:43.9 - ISABEL HOMSI - FOREST PARK - 11:15
133. 124.4 - 19:44.5 - ADDISON SCHMIDT - HUNTERDON - 11:16
134. 124.3 - 19:44.7 - MAHDERE YARED - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:16
135. 124.0 - 19:45.6 - MACY IYER - EDINA - 11:16
136. 123.9 - 19:45.9 - KATE DONALDSON - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:17
137. 122.1 - 19:51.8 - RILEY CASH - FOREST PARK - 11:20
138. 121.7 - 19:52.8 - MADDIE SHULTS - NIWOT - 11:21
139. 121.4 - 19:53.8 - STELLA SKOVBORG - CENTRAL OREGON - 11:21
140. 121.2 - 19:54.6 - TATUM FOREMAN - CARROLL - 11:22
141. 121.0 - 19:55.0 - SOPHIE GOLOBITSH - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:22
142. 120.8 - 19:55.6 - CLAIRE HAMLET - RIDGEWOOD - 11:22
143. 120.8 - 19:55.9 - MIA JAUREGUI - CLOVIS - 11:22
144. 120.1 - 19:57.8 - McKAYLA FELTON - MUSKEGO - 11:23
145. 120.0 - 19:58.2 - ALEX CARLSON - HUNTERDON - 11:24
146. 119.7 - 19:59.1 - ARCHANA MOHANDAS - NEWBURY PARK - 11:24
147. 119.6 - 19:59.6 - MORGAN HUTCHISON - CLOVIS - 11:24
148. 119.1 - 20:01.2 - GRACE KAERCHER - MANLIUS - 11:25
149. 119.0 - 20:01.5 - MIA HILL - NORTH SPOKANE - 11:25
150. 118.9 - 20:01.7 - DIVINE TORZA - TEMECULA - 11:26
151. 118.7 - 20:02.4 - ALLY TALLEY - PURCELLVILLE - 11:26
152. 118.5 - 20:02.9 - MORGAN RICHTER - EDINA - 11:26
153. 118.0 - 20:04.6 - TORI GAITAN - TEMECULA - 11:27
154. 117.8 - 20:05.2 - AILISH HAWKINS - NEWBURY PARK - 11:28
155. 117.8 - 20:05.2 - HANNAH ROUND - NEWBURY PARK - 11:28
156. 117.4 - 20:06.5 - NAYA WRENN - PORTLAND - 11:28
157. 117.0 - 20:07.8 - KATIE BYBEE - LONE PEAK - 11:29
158. 116.7 - 20:08.8 - GRETCHEN SLATTUM - NEWBURY PARK - 11:30
159. 116.6 - 20:09.0 - KYRA HOLLAND - PURCELLVILLE - 11:30
160. 116.4 - 20:09.7 - AMY MOREFIELD - SOUTH - 11:30
161. 116.1 - 20:10.6 - LILY WILLIAMS - RIDGEWOOD - 11:31
162. 116.1 - 20:10.6 - ANYA BELISLE - KINETIC - 11:31
163. 115.2 - 20:13.4 - SARA JOCHIMS - MUSKEGO - 11:32
164. 115.1 - 20:13.6 - CLAIRE WAGNER - EDINA - 11:32
165. 114.9 - 20:14.5 - CLAIRE COONEY - PORTLAND - 11:33
166. 114.7 - 20:15.0 - LUCY WESTLAKE - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:33
167. 114.2 - 20:16.6 - SARAH POLICANO - RIDGEWOOD - 11:34
168. 114.1 - 20:16.9 - KIRSTIN TOWLE - PROSPER - 11:34
169. 113.9 - 20:17.6 - ABIGAIL MCILVAIN - CARROLL - 11:35
170. 113.6 - 20:18.6 - KENDALL HOBBS - BEAVERCREEK - 11:35
171. 113.2 - 20:19.6 - REESE DRAGOVICH - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:36
172. 111.8 - 20:24.1 - EMILEY KERN - PROSPER - 11:38
173. 111.4 - 20:25.4 - NOELLE JUNIG - MUSKEGO - 11:39
174. 111.1 - 20:26.4 - ANI OXBOROUGH - MUSKEGO - 11:40
175. 110.1 - 20:29.5 - ALEXIS SVOBODA - PROSPER - 11:41
176. 109.6 - 20:31.2 - KAYLEE ELLIOTT - CLOVIS - 11:42
177. 108.8 - 20:33.6 - AMELIA AMACK - MANLIUS - 11:44
178. 106.0 - 20:42.5 - GRACE WILLIAMSON - CARROLL - 11:49
179. 105.3 - 20:44.5 - SOPHIE SMITH - FOREST PARK - 11:50
180. 104.9 - 20:45.8 - NATALIE JACK - PORTLAND - 11:51
181. 104.3 - 20:47.7 - MADDY DUGGLEBY - MANLIUS - 11:52
182. 103.4 - 20:50.6 - SOPHIA REICH - HUNTERDON - 11:54
183. 103.2 - 20:51.4 - TSU-QUIN-DA-RO ENYART - FOREST PARK - 11:54
184. 101.9 - 20:55.3 - ALICE ROBERTS - PURCELLVILLE - 11:56
185. 101.6 - 20:56.4 - KATE PARSONS - PROSPER - 11:57
186. 101.2 - 20:57.7 - SIERRA STOCKER - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:58
187. 100.9 - 20:58.4 - ELLIE COOK - FOREST PARK - 11:58
188. 100.6 - 20:59.4 - BRI TEEGARDEN - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:59
189. 99.9 - 21:01.5 - KENDALL CARTER - NORTH SPOKANE - 12:00
190. 98.9 - 21:04.8 - IZZY MAX - CENTRAL OREGON - 12:02
191. 98.6 - 21:05.9 - ALEXA KARMIS - CARROLL - 12:02
192. 97.7 - 21:08.5 - SADIE SCHREINER - EDINA - 12:04
193. 96.4 - 21:12.7 - MADISON LEE - NORTH SPOKANE - 12:06
194. 92.5 - 21:25.0 - TATUM CASTILLO - PROSPER - 12:13
195. 91.5 - 21:28.2 - ALYSSA PANELLA - HUNTERDON - 12:15
196. 90.8 - 21:30.3 - GRACE DAILEY - BEAVERCREEK - 12:16
197. 75.2 - 22:19.5 - SAMI KEHLER - HUNTERDON - 12:44
198. 69.2 - 22:38.3 - LORRIE AXELROD - FT. LAUDERDALE - 12:55
199. 68.2 - 22:41.5 - AMANDA SCHWARTZ - FT. LAUDERDALE - 12:57
200. 66.0 - 22:48.6 - LUCIA RABOLLI - RIDGEWOOD - 13:01
201. 64.7 - 22:52.8 - MEGAN NOWE - BEAVERCREEK - 13:03

Boys NXN Nationals Results/Ratings

Newbury Park CA's Nico Young led from the gun in a VERY impressive showing today, and also led his team to victory! Also, the boys team race was just as outstanding as expected with all three pre-race favorites finishing on the podium and only 14 points separating them! Also a strong race by St. Charles East IL to bounce back from their off race at NXR. Pretty muddy conditions today as it was raining a fair amount overnight and this morning in Portland.

Ratings estimate: 200.0 = 15:24

(edit: added estimated equivalent 3200m times for better comparison; also, had to adjust the results because original results had the #2-4 finishers in the incorrect order, though the times were correct ... let me know if you see any other errors)

Boys Teams:

1. 128 - NEWBURY PARK - 78:47.3 - California D2 Champion - 193.0
2. 132 - TEMECULA - 79:43.6 - California D1 Champion - 189.4
3. 142 - DRAPER - 79:46.2 - NXR Southwest Champion - 189.2
4. 163 - ST CHARLES - 79:57.6 - NXR Midwest Third Place - 188.5
5. 213 - CROZET - 80:46.8 - NXR Southeast Runner-up - 185.3
6. 226 - RHODE ISLAND - 80:44.2 - NXR Northeast Champion - 185.4
7. 236 - LITTLETON - 80:29.1 - NXR Southwest Third Place - 186.4
8. 247 - DANA POINT - 81:10.7 - California D2 Runner-up - 183.7
9. 253 - WHEATON SOUTH - 81:06.1 - NXR Midwest Champion - 184.0
10. 255 - PURCELLVILLE - 80:58.7 - NXR Southeast Champion - 184.5
11. 274 - MANLIUS - 81:05.5 - NXR New York Champion - 184.1
12. 275 - ELMHURST - 81:33.6 - NXR Midwest Runner-up - 182.2
13. 284 - DENVER - 81:34.7 - NXR Southwest Runner-up - 182.2
14. 285 - CARROLL - 81:27.7 - NXR South Champion - 182.6
15. 316 - THE WOODLANDS - 81:40.9 - NXR South Runner-up - 181.8
16. 327 - LINCROFT - 82:01.4 - NXR Northeast Runner-up - 180.4
17. 386 - PORTLAND - 82:36.7 - NXR Northwest Runner-up - 178.1
18. 407 - BURNT HILLS - 82:49.2 - NXR New York Runner-up - 177.3
19. 415 - MOUNDS VIEW - 82:58.4 - NXR Heartland Champion - 176.7
20. 434 - WEST KENNEWICK - 83:04.3 - NXR Northwest Champion - 176.3
21. 491 - STEVENS POINT - 83:46.7 - NXR Heartland Runner-up - 173.6
22. 581 - EASTWOOD - 84:34.0 - NXR South Third Place - 170.5

Boys Individuals:

1. 210.3 - 14:52.3 - NICO YOUNG - NEWBURY PARK - 8:41
2. 205.8 - 15:06.1 - JOSH METHNER - MIDWEST - 8:49
3. 205.1 - 15:08.3 - CALEB BROWN - MIDWEST - 8:50
4. 204.9 - 15:08.8 - MATT STRANGIO - CALIFORNIA - 8:51
5. 204.9 - 15:09.0 - CONNOR OHLSON - LITTLETON - 8:51
6. 204.7 - 15:09.6 - EJ HOLLAND - NORTHWEST - 8:51
7. 204.5 - 15:10.1 - COLE SPROUT - SOUTHWEST - 8:51
8. 203.9 - 15:12.0 - LIAM MURPHY - NORTHEAST - 8:53
9. 203.4 - 15:13.4 - CARSON BELNAP - SOUTHWEST - 8:53
10. 202.6 - 15:15.9 - WIL SMITH - NORTHWEST - 8:55
11. 202.1 - 15:17.4 - NATHAN GREEN - NORTHWEST - 8:56
12. 202.0 - 15:17.8 - ANTHONY MONTE - SOUTH - 8:56
13. 201.5 - 15:19.5 - TRISTIAN MERCHANT - NORTHWEST - 8:57
14. 201.3 - 15:20.0 - DYLAN SCHUBERT - SOUTHWEST - 8:57
15. 201.3 - 15:20.1 - RYAN SCHOPPE - SOUTH - 8:57
16. 200.9 - 15:21.1 - SAM LAWLER - NEW YORK - 8:58
17. 200.3 - 15:23.1 - JACK SPAMER - MIDWEST - 8:59
18. 198.3 - 15:29.1 - JACE ASCHBRENNER - NEWBURY PARK - 9:03
19. 198.1 - 15:29.8 - BOB LIKING - ST CHARLES - 9:03
20. 197.8 - 15:30.8 - CRUZ CULPEPPER - SOUTHWEST - 9:04
21. 197.1 - 15:32.9 - ANTHONY GROVER - CALIFORNIA - 9:05
22. 197.1 - 15:33.0 - CARLOS SHULTZ - PURCELLVILLE - 9:05
23. 196.9 - 15:33.7 - ISAIAH GALINDO - CALIFORNIA - 9:05
24. 196.5 - 15:34.8 - KEVIN ANTCZAK - NORTHEAST - 9:06
25. 195.9 - 15:36.6 - MICHAEL MIRELES - CALIFORNIA - 9:07
26. 195.8 - 15:37.0 - JUDSON GREER - SOUTH - 9:07
27. 195.8 - 15:37.0 - BILLY HAUENSTEIN - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:07
28. 195.7 - 15:37.3 - GRAHAM BLANKS - SOUTHEAST - 9:07
29. 195.6 - 15:37.7 - JACKSON BRADDOCK - NORTHEAST - 9:08
30. 195.4 - 15:38.2 - SAMUEL OTIS - MANLIUS - 9:08
31. 195.3 - 15:38.4 - NICK SCHELLER - HEARTLAND - 9:08
32. 195.0 - 15:39.3 - SPENCER CARDINAL - THE WOODLANDS - 9:09
33. 194.7 - 15:40.2 - EVAN BISHOP - MIDWEST - 9:09
34. 194.6 - 15:40.7 - LISANDRO BERRY-GAVIRIA - NORTHEAST - 9:09
35. 194.5 - 15:41.0 - JACK MCLOUGHLIN - RHODE ISLAND - 9:10
36. 194.3 - 15:41.6 - ABRAHAM AVILA-MARTINEZ - SOUTH - 9:10
37. 194.2 - 15:41.9 - COLTON KEMPNEY - NEW YORK - 9:10
38. 194.2 - 15:42.0 - EASTON ALLRED - DRAPER - 9:10
39. 193.7 - 15:43.4 - BRENDAN FAVAZZA - MIDWEST - 9:11
40. 193.3 - 15:44.5 - ISAAC TEEPLES - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:12
41. 193.0 - 15:45.5 - JOE HAWKES - CROZET - 9:12
42. 193.0 - 15:45.6 - PEYTON GEEHRER - MANLIUS - 9:12
43. 192.9 - 15:45.8 - CARRICK DENKER - DANA POINT - 9:12
44. 192.8 - 15:46.2 - JACK JENNINGS - NORTHEAST - 9:13
45. 192.6 - 15:46.7 - MARK BOYLE - DRAPER - 9:13
46. 192.3 - 15:47.6 - YASIN SADO - SOUTHWEST - 9:13
47. 191.8 - 15:49.4 - SULLY SHELTON - SOUTHEAST - 9:14
48. 191.4 - 15:50.5 - MICHAEL HANCOCK - MIDWEST - 9:15
49. 191.4 - 15:50.6 - COLIN HILL - ELMHURST - 9:15
50. 191.3 - 15:50.8 - EVAN REYNOLDS - NORTHEAST - 9:15
51. 191.2 - 15:51.0 - JACK ELIASON - CROZET - 9:15
52. 191.1 - 15:51.3 - AIDAN PALMER - NORTHWEST - 9:16
53. 190.9 - 15:51.9 - COLIN SAHLMAN - NEWBURY PARK - 9:16
54. 190.9 - 15:52.0 - GABE ABBES - TEMECULA - 9:16
55. 190.9 - 15:52.0 - JACOB WHITE - LITTLETON - 9:16
56. 190.8 - 15:52.2 - RYAN ALLISON - BURNT HILLS - 9:16
57. 190.3 - 15:53.8 - MICAH WILSON - ST CHARLES - 9:17
58. 190.1 - 15:54.4 - ETHAN HAMMER - THE WOODLANDS - 9:17
59. 190.0 - 15:54.8 - ARIC REZA - TEMECULA - 9:18
60. 189.8 - 15:55.3 - MAX DIMUCCIO - RHODE ISLAND - 9:18
61. 189.7 - 15:55.6 - TIM MCELANEY - CARROLL - 9:18
62. 189.6 - 15:56.0 - JOHN WORTHY GARCIA - TEMECULA - 9:18
63. 188.9 - 15:58.3 - LEANDRO CANDRAY - TEMECULA - 9:20
64. 188.6 - 15:59.0 - TROY HILL - LINCROFT - 9:20
65. 188.6 - 15:59.1 - WILL CHAFFIN - NORTHEAST - 9:20
66. 188.5 - 15:59.4 - MHALICKI BRONSON - MIDWEST - 9:20
67. 188.4 - 15:59.6 - KELLEN HASLE - PURCELLVILLE - 9:20
68. 188.3 - 15:59.9 - HENRY FARRINGTON - NORTHEAST - 9:21
69. 188.1 - 16:00.6 - SETH ROUSE - DENVER - 9:21
70. 187.9 - 16:01.3 - ALEX HARBERTSON - DRAPER - 9:21
71. 187.7 - 16:01.9 - NATHANIEL LANNEN - CARROLL - 9:22
72. 187.5 - 16:02.5 - MATEO JOSEPH - TEMECULA - 9:22
73. 187.3 - 16:03.1 - GEOFF HOWLES - MANLIUS - 9:22
74. 187.3 - 16:03.2 - AIDAN KING - ST CHARLES - 9:23
75. 187.2 - 16:03.3 - JUSTIN WILSON - SOUTHEAST - 9:23
76. 187.0 - 16:04.1 - KEVIN CARLSON - PURCELLVILLE - 9:23
77. 186.9 - 16:04.2 - CHASE LEACH - RHODE ISLAND - 9:23
78. 186.8 - 16:04.6 - JOSHUA STONE - NEW YORK - 9:23
79. 186.7 - 16:04.9 - AJ ROWLAND - DRAPER - 9:24
80. 186.6 - 16:05.3 - GITCH HAYES - NEW YORK - 9:24
81. 185.9 - 16:07.4 - BRANDON PIZANO - DANA POINT - 9:25
82. 185.7 - 16:08.1 - ANTONIO FLORCRUZ - CARROLL - 9:25
83. 185.5 - 16:08.8 - IAN HARRISON - SOUTHEAST - 9:26
84. 185.3 - 16:09.3 - STUART TERRILL - CROZET - 9:26
85. 185.2 - 16:09.5 - DAVID ZELLER - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:26
86. 185.1 - 16:09.8 - RYAN KINNANE - HEARTLAND - 9:26
87. 185.1 - 16:09.9 - OLIVER PALEEN - HEARTLAND - 9:26
88. 184.9 - 16:10.5 - SHAW POWELL - LINCROFT - 9:27
89. 184.8 - 16:10.9 - HARRISON WITT - DENVER - 9:27
90. 184.6 - 16:11.3 - CALEB JOHNSON - DRAPER - 9:27
91. 184.0 - 16:13.2 - JAI DAWSON - DANA POINT - 9:28
92. 183.8 - 16:13.8 - DANIEL KLYSH - ELMHURST - 9:29
93. 183.6 - 16:14.5 - LUKE SCHILDMEYER - ST CHARLES - 9:29
94. 183.5 - 16:14.7 - JACOB KLUCKHOHN - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:29
95. 183.1 - 16:16.2 - NICK GOLDSTEIN - NEWBURY PARK - 9:30
96. 183.0 - 16:16.3 - ZACK LOOMIS - ST CHARLES - 9:30
97. 183.0 - 16:16.4 - RYAN SCHUMACHER - PORTLAND - 9:30
98. 182.9 - 16:16.7 - PETER FOGARTY - NEW YORK - 9:30
99. 182.8 - 16:17.0 - ALEC NELSON - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:31
100. 182.5 - 16:17.8 - DANIEL APPLEFORD - NEWBURY PARK - 9:31
101. 182.4 - 16:18.3 - BEN MORRIN - LITTLETON - 9:31
102. 182.2 - 16:18.8 - JACK BENNETT - PORTLAND - 9:32
103. 182.1 - 16:19.0 - DAVIS HELMERICH - DENVER - 9:32
104. 181.9 - 16:19.6 - SEAN STUCK - SOUTHEAST - 9:32
105. 181.7 - 16:20.4 - ALEX MAXWELL - RHODE ISLAND - 9:33
106. 181.3 - 16:21.5 - FINN SOKOLOWSKI - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:33
107. 180.8 - 16:23.0 - JAKE BOURGET - STEVENS POINT - 9:34
108. 180.6 - 16:23.6 - JARED PEASLEE - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:34
109. 180.6 - 16:23.7 - LEO YOUNG - NEWBURY PARK - 9:35
110. 180.5 - 16:24.2 - BEN DASTRUP - DRAPER - 9:35
111. 180.0 - 16:25.5 - SHUAYB HUSSEIN - HEARTLAND - 9:36
112. 179.7 - 16:26.5 - MAX MURPHY - HEARTLAND - 9:36
113. 179.6 - 16:26.7 - WILL BONNER - CROZET - 9:36
114. 179.5 - 16:27.2 - DECLAN O'SCANNLAIN - PORTLAND - 9:37
115. 179.4 - 16:27.3 - KYLE BOE - DENVER - 9:37
116. 179.4 - 16:27.3 - MICKEY VREELAND - ELMHURST - 9:37
117. 179.0 - 16:28.6 - CHRISTOPHER MIDDLETON-PEARSON - CALIFORNIA - 9:37
118. 178.9 - 16:29.1 - MICHAEL MORIARTY - ELMHURST - 9:38
119. 178.5 - 16:30.1 - OMAR GARCIA LOPEZ - DANA POINT - 9:38
120. 178.4 - 16:30.6 - BEN SHEARER - SOUTH - 9:39
121. 178.3 - 16:30.7 - ELLIOTT MCARTHUR - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:39
122. 178.2 - 16:31.1 - CHRIS DESOUSA - LINCROFT - 9:39
123. 178.2 - 16:31.2 - MATT SMITH - PURCELLVILLE - 9:39
124. 177.7 - 16:32.8 - BRIAN PRATT - ELMHURST - 9:40
125. 177.5 - 16:33.2 - COLE SAWIRES YAGER - TEMECULA - 9:40
126. 177.2 - 16:34.2 - RYAN BROADHEAD - DANA POINT - 9:41
127. 177.2 - 16:34.3 - JOSEPH TAYLOR - CROZET - 9:41
128. 177.1 - 16:34.5 - ETHAN STRAUB - LITTLETON - 9:41
129. 177.0 - 16:34.9 - BEN SANTOS - LINCROFT - 9:41
130. 176.9 - 16:35.3 - BEN PIEGAT - LITTLETON - 9:41
131. 176.8 - 16:35.6 - WILL MARCHANT - BURNT HILLS - 9:41
132. 176.6 - 16:36.0 - THOMAS KALLEN - CROZET - 9:42
133. 176.3 - 16:36.9 - JACK O'SULLIVAN - DENVER - 9:42
134. 176.3 - 16:37.1 - AARON SOLTMANN - THE WOODLANDS - 9:42
135. 176.2 - 16:37.2 - MICHAEL MCCABE - CARROLL - 9:42
136. 176.1 - 16:37.5 - WILL YASDICK - ELMHURST - 9:43
137. 175.8 - 16:38.5 - ARIK MANWARING - DRAPER - 9:43
138. 175.6 - 16:39.1 - GRAYSON WILCOTT - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:44
139. 175.5 - 16:39.6 - CHRIS VERDUGO - TEMECULA - 9:44
140. 175.2 - 16:40.4 - CONNOR MURPHY - ST CHARLES - 9:44
141. 175.1 - 16:40.6 - MATTHEW ROUNDS - BURNT HILLS - 9:44
142. 174.9 - 16:41.3 - ETHAN SENG - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:45
143. 174.4 - 16:42.7 - KEVIN BOARD - BURNT HILLS - 9:46
144. 174.3 - 16:43.2 - STANFORD SMITH - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:46
145. 174.3 - 16:43.3 - TYLER CHAMBERS - RHODE ISLAND - 9:46
146. 174.2 - 16:43.5 - TRISTAN SERNAU - STEVENS POINT - 9:46
147. 174.1 - 16:43.7 - ADAM THIBODEAU - RHODE ISLAND - 9:46
148. 174.0 - 16:44.2 - JAKE LEPAK - STEVENS POINT - 9:46
149. 173.8 - 16:44.8 - MATIAS MONONEN - THE WOODLANDS - 9:47
150. 173.7 - 16:44.9 - SOLOMON CHAVEZ - CARROLL - 9:47
151. 173.6 - 16:45.2 - SAM CURRAN - PORTLAND - 9:47
152. 173.6 - 16:45.3 - KYLE EASTON - THE WOODLANDS - 9:47
153. 173.4 - 16:45.9 - JACK MORAN - LINCROFT - 9:47
154. 173.3 - 16:46.1 - MICHAEL ATKINS - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:48
155. 173.2 - 16:46.4 - JAMES PEDEN - MANLIUS - 9:48
156. 173.2 - 16:46.6 - ANDREW LARSON - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:48
157. 172.9 - 16:47.5 - ELIAS PEREZ - EASTWOOD - 9:48
158. 172.4 - 16:49.1 - JOE GARDNER - CARROLL - 9:49
159. 172.4 - 16:49.1 - JOHN SCHULER - PORTLAND - 9:49
160. 171.8 - 16:50.8 - JEREMIAH MUSSMON - PURCELLVILLE - 9:50
161. 171.6 - 16:51.4 - ZACH SCHARBARTH - STEVENS POINT - 9:51
162. 171.5 - 16:51.8 - WILL SACAY - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:51
163. 171.4 - 16:52.2 - BRIAN SEWELL - THE WOODLANDS - 9:51
164. 171.4 - 16:52.2 - DANIEL PATRICK - MANLIUS - 9:51
165. 171.2 - 16:52.7 - NATHAN HERNANDEZ - EASTWOOD - 9:51
166. 170.8 - 16:54.0 - SERGIO CUARTAS - EASTWOOD - 9:52
167. 170.4 - 16:55.1 - JONAS LARSON - PORTLAND - 9:53
168. 169.7 - 16:57.4 - MATT MILLER - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:54
169. 169.6 - 16:57.5 - JUAN OLMOS - EASTWOOD - 9:54
170. 169.5 - 16:57.8 - NICHOLAS SULLIVAN - LINCROFT - 9:54
171. 169.4 - 16:58.1 - DAVID METACARPA - BURNT HILLS - 9:55
172. 169.4 - 16:58.3 - MATEO BARRETO - PURCELLVILLE - 9:55
173. 168.7 - 17:00.3 - JAYDEN NATS - DENVER - 9:56
174. 168.1 - 17:02.3 - ANDREWS GURROLA - EASTWOOD - 9:57
175. 167.3 - 17:04.6 - CHRISTIAN KIZEWSKI-MANTHEY - STEVENS POINT - 9:58
176. 167.2 - 17:04.9 - JOSEPH MOERSCH - DANA POINT - 9:59
177. 166.8 - 17:06.4 - JOSH BOURGET - STEVENS POINT - 9:59
178. 166.5 - 17:07.3 - TIM CAHILL - LINCROFT - 10:00
179. 166.2 - 17:08.0 - ETHAN KERN - ELMHURST - 10:00
180. 166.1 - 17:08.3 - JACK ALTIMONDA - MANLIUS - 10:01
181. 165.8 - 17:09.2 - JAMES JACOBS - STEVENS POINT - 10:01
182. 165.8 - 17:09.3 - VICTOR PARRA - EASTWOOD - 10:01
183. 165.7 - 17:09.5 - JOHNNY OLENEK - ST CHARLES - 10:01
184. 165.6 - 17:09.9 - TINO PRECIADO - MOUNDS VIEW - 10:02
185. 165.3 - 17:10.9 - ANDREW HOLLADAY - WEST KENNEWICK - 10:02
186. 165.2 - 17:11.1 - JACK CASEY - RHODE ISLAND - 10:02
187. 165.2 - 17:11.2 - AIDAN ALEXANDER - PORTLAND - 10:02
188. 164.9 - 17:12.2 - BEN AMUNDSON - THE WOODLANDS - 10:03
189. 164.8 - 17:12.5 - BLAKE OHLSON - LITTLETON - 10:03
190. 164.7 - 17:12.7 - VICTOR ANCHONDO - EASTWOOD - 10:03
191. 163.8 - 17:15.5 - NICK GROCK - BURNT HILLS - 10:05
192. 163.3 - 17:17.0 - OWEN SHIFFLETT - CROZET - 10:06
193. 162.7 - 17:19.0 - BRETT GILLEY - CARROLL - 10:07
194. 162.0 - 17:21.1 - CARSON REWISKI - WHEATON SOUTH - 10:08
195. 161.3 - 17:23.1 - WYATT OGLESBY - LITTLETON - 10:09
196. 161.2 - 17:23.5 - JAX WEIDE - WEST KENNEWICK - 10:09
197. 160.6 - 17:25.2 - NATE APOSTOL - MOUNDS VIEW - 10:10
198. 160.2 - 17:26.6 - TAYLOR NEY - PURCELLVILLE - 10:11
199. 159.2 - 17:29.6 - GIANNI VIOLA-WILHELMI - DANA POINT - 10:13
200. 157.1 - 17:36.2 - COLIN MOONEY - DENVER - 10:17
201. 157.0 - 17:36.5 - TOM MCDONNELL - NEWBURY PARK - 10:17
202. 154.8 - 17:43.2 - DANTE UBRIACO - BURNT HILLS - 10:21
203. 150.0 - 17:57.9 - BEN PERRY - MANLIUS - 10:30

Fun with numbers - a quick sanity check on NXR Ratings **REVISED**

I thought it might be interesting to post this little tidbit about how accurate my ratings my be this year.

Every year after NXN, I run an analysis to see how the various NXR courses compare based on times ran at NXN (including removing outliers, so this isn't influenced by how well specific individuals ran but rather the groups of individuals ran after discounting outlier performances). This accomplishes two goals: identifying what regions I might have over/undervalued going into NXN, and estimating just how fast the course at NXN should be rated.

The results from last year's NXR and NXN analysis gave the following results:

200.0 mark for NXN Nationals Girls race should be about 15:02
200.0 mark for NXN Nationals Boys race should be about 15:11

(Side note: I feel good about those ratings, I think they are very fitting. For anyone reading these that want to compare to Meylan's speed ratings: they are derived differently, and it's not uncommon that I'm a little more generous in my ratings than Meylan is. That isn't always true, and for many meets we are close, but for whatever reason there are some circumstances where my ratings are consistently higher than his -- I have my theories as to why that difference exists and is as notable as it exists, but it would only be guesses and not worth spending time talking about ... so just realize that Meylan's speed ratings and my own form of ratings, beyond the difference of how they are calculated e.g. Meylan's +/- system vs. my multiplier system, are not identical and can't really be compared directly)

200.0 mark for each regional race:

14:43 NXR Southwest
14:44 California State
14:45 NXR Heartland
14:53 NXR Southeast
14:53 NXR Midwest
15:12 NXR Northwest
15:20 NXR South
15:32 NXR Northeast/New York

Taking those differences in the course, I thought it would be interesting to see how the differences might look BEYOND my usual methods, just as a check to see if I'm significantly over/under estimating any regional race this year.

Milesplit has a pretty neat tool that allows you to compare how the same races compare from year to year. Using that tool, and limiting my scope to the runners that ran at both races and taking the average time, average of the middle 80% of times, average difference for specific runners, and average difference of the middle 80% for specific runners (those are the measurements that seemed most consistent from region to region), I ran some numbers on how much faster/slower the courses seemed to run this year vs. last (if we assume that every region progresses year-to-year at roughly the same rate).

[EDIT - I found the reason why the Northwest runners improved by comparably less ... for some reason, Milesplit didn't bother to log the boys races in 2018! Serves me right for not double-checking Milesplit's data I guess ... as a result, I'll be removing the Northwest from this comparison, and revised the rest of the regions to look at data from the boys races only only ... which didn't change the results too much as would be expected unless a region had significantly more girls returning than boys, but aside from New York things did become slightly more in-line with what I was seeing while rating the different regional races]

For all of those measurements, the median differences throughout the regions were around 35 seconds improvement from last year to this year. I considered that the standard, and any region that improved by less than 35 seconds is an estimate that the course ran that much SLOWER (e.g., the same Midwest athletes average times were 22.9 seconds faster in 2019, so that would suggest the course ran 12.1 seconds slower this year compared to last: 35.0 - 22.9 = 12.1).

This isn't a perfect analysis for several reasons (it relies on the accuracy of milesplit's compiled data which I'm not double checking, different training programs will in general progress at different rates, environmental situation may influence how much a these runners progress from year to year e.g. less likely to train year-round in hot/cold regions or more likely to progress more significantly if living and training at altitude, it goes beyond the championship races for both years which is the focus of the ratings and the racing situation can influence times between different races, etc. etc.), which is why I'm not changing my regional ratings due to the findings, but it provides an idea of if I'm maybe on the right track.

The results, region-by-region:

NXR Heartland was rated at 14:45 last year in the final review. The analysis (702 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:41-14:46. I rated it a 14:46, so that's a pretty good fit!

NXR Midwest was rated at 14:53 last year in the final review. The analysis (676 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 15:02-15:05. I rated it at 14:58, so maybe a slight underrating of the region, but 4-7 seconds is within the margin of error IMO especially if it is on that lower end.

NXR Southwest was rated 14:43 last year in the final review. The analysis (683 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:55-14:59. I rated it at 14:50, so this could be a notable underrating by 5-9 seconds!

NXR South was rated at 15:20 last year in the final review. The analysis (513 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 15:14-15:15. I rated it at 15:14, so that's a pretty good fit!

NXR Southeast was rated at 14:53 last year in the final review. The analysis (252 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:49-14:50. I rated it at 14:53, so that's a pretty good fit!

California State was rated at 14:44 last year in the final review. The analysis (319 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:43-14:44. I rated it at 14:40, so that's a very good fit!

I don't rate the Northeast and New York races separately, but rather combine them, UNLESS there is a situation where the course conditions change notably between the races (e.g., a really muddy course that got worse as the day wore on). Unfortunately, Milesplit's tool looks at NXR-NE and NXR-NY separately, but these stay mostly in the same ballpark so it's not too big of a deal.

NXR Northeast was rated at 15:32 last year in the final review. The analysis (218 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 15:33-15:34. For NXR New York, the analysis (148 boys) shows anywhere from 15:27-15:30. Combined, that suggests anywhere from 15:27-15:34 but probably closer to 15:30-15:33. I rated it at 15:37, so that's a pretty decent fit but maybe slightly overestimating by as 5 seconds or so.

The biggest difference by far, though, was the NXR Northwest analysis.

We will find out on Saturday how much I over/under estimated the regional races. If the Southwest teams and individuals are notably more dominant than I already have them and Northeast/New York less competitive, I guess I need to be more aggressive with my year-to-year adjustments and that the regions are even less balanced that I thought!

BTW, here's a summary table of the analysis for those that might want to dig a little deeper.

2018 Rating - Region - Avg. Time - Middle 80% Time - Avg. Difference - Middle 80% Difference - Region - Averaged from Analysis - 2019 Rating

14:45 - HL - 14:46 - 14:42 - 14:46 - 14:41 - HL - 14:44 - 14:46
14:53 - MW - 15:05 - 15:03 - 15:05 - 15:02 - MW - 15:04 - 14:58
14:43 - SW - 14:59 - 14:55 - 14:59 - 14:55 - SW - 14:57 - 14:50
15:20 - SO - 15:15 - 15:14 - 15:15 - 15:14 - SO - 15:14 - 15:14
14:53 - SE - 14:50 - 14:50 - 14:50 - 14:49 - SE - 14:50 - 14:53
15:32 - NE - 15:34 - 15:34 - 15:34 - 15:33 - NE - 15:34 - 15:37
15:32 - NY - 15:27 - 15:29 - 15:27 - 15:30 - NY - 15:28 - 15:37
14:44 - CA - 14:43 - 14:43 - 14:43 - 14:44 - CA - 14:43 - 14:40

Since I consider 5-10 seconds to be a reasonable margin of error for comparing across different regions and different races (human performance is variable, and a runner being 5-10 seconds off wouldn't be considered an outlier in a statistical comparison), all of the regions would be within at least the larger side of that margin. The Southwest (+7), Midwest (+6) and New York (-9) are beyond 5 seconds but all less than 10, meaning I might be underrating the Southwest and Midwest while overrating New York -- but since New York and the Northeast run on the same course and the Northeast fits, I don't think the idea that New York is potentially being slightly overrated will end up playing out. The other 5 regions (sans Northwest, which Milesplit doesn't have the data for) are within 0-3 seconds of how I had them rated, which is a very good fit.


Post-NXN Nationals EDIT: After the conclusion of the national race, the post-race analysis had these as the suggested regional ratings:

(Boys Nationals = 15:24, Girls Nationals = 15:46)

NXR Heartland: 14:46 vs. the 14:46 I had them at, and 14:44 from the analysis above
NXR Midwest: 15:04 vs. the 14:58 I had them at, and 15:04 from the analysis above
NXR Northwest: 15:10 vs. the 15:10 I had them at (and didn't include above because Milesplit didn't have the right data to use)
NXR Southwest: 14:52 vs. the 14:50 I had them at, and 14:57 from the analysis above
NXR South: 15:16 vs. the 15:14 I had them at, and 15:14 from the analysis above
NXR Southeast: 14:49 vs. the 14:53 I had them at, and 14:50 from the analysis above
NXR Northeast/New York: 15:39 vs. the 15:37 I had them at, and 15:32ish from the analysis above
California State: 14:46 vs. the 14:40 I had them at, and 14:43 from the analysis above

In review, I was slightly underrating the Midwest and California (though not by a large margin, only 6 seconds), to an even lesser degree I slightly overrated Southeast (4 seconds), and every other region was within 2 seconds.

Top Girls Teams/Individuals from NXR Meets

Here's a fun little look in case I don't get around to posting a proper NXN Projection this year. Every year, when looking through the regional races, I rate all of the races and throw them into a large field and parse it down until I get the top few teams so that I can gauge how well potential At-Large teams (and sometimes teams that might have finished fifth or sixth in a really strong region) might fare against the AQ teams already in the field. To that end, here is the scoring I had from NXR results ONLY for the 18 AQ teams + the top 7 non-AQ teams. Again, this does NOT represent who I think was necessarily the most deserving At-Large teams this year, but rather how everyone compared at the NXR meets specifically.

Included are the merged scores, the team time average from their meet, the associated ratings for that average time, the region they competed in and the place they got at the meet. Teams in bold are in the NXN field, teams underlined were eligible for At-Large consideration, and teams in italics were teams that were not eligible for At-Large consideration (were outside the top 4 at their regional meet).

Girls Teams:

1. 126 - Summit OR - 18:01.40 - 143.5 - NW #1
2. 209 - Saratoga Springs NY - 18:56.76 - 136.1 - NY #2
3. 210 - North Central WA - 18:13.22 - 139.6 - NW #2
4. 215 - Lone Peak UT - 17:58.33 - 136.5 - SW #1
5. 227 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 18:45.20 - 139.7 - NY #1
6. 234 - Jesuit OR - 18:26.44 - 135.2 - NW #3
7. 265 - Valor Christian CO - 18:06.13 - 133.9 - SW #2
8. 277 - Loudoun Valley VA - 18:10.82 - 133.5 - SE #1
9. 286 - Niwot CO - 18:12.07 - 131.9 - SW #3
10. 294 - Lincoln OR - 18:26.34 - 135.3 - NW #4
11. 315 - Buchanan CA - 17:56.92 - 132.9 - CA #1
12. 323 - Beavercreek OH - 18:20.52 - 132.3 - MW #2
13. 326 - Great Oak CA - 18:06.54 - 129.6 - CA #2
14. 348 - Cherry Creek CO - 18:13.08 - 131.6 - SW #4
15. 350 - Muskego WI - 18:13.20 - 129.9 - HL #2
16. 352 - Edina MN - 18:16.52 - 128.7 - HL #1
17. 367 - Pine Crest FL - 18:29.50 - 127.3 - SE #2
18. 368 - Sage Creek CA - 18:11.72 - 127.8 - CA #4
19. 373 - Newbury Park CA - 18:10.38 - 128.3 - CA #3
20. 395 - Naperville (North) IL - 18:33.34 - 128.1 - MW #1
21. 412 - Prosper TX - 18:53.37 - 128.0 - SO #1
22. 431 - Wayzata MN - 18:23.98 - 126.2 - HL #3
23. 441 - North Hunterdon NJ - 19:27.40 - 126.2 - NE #1
24. 453 - Southlake Carroll TX - 19:02.84 - 124.9 - SO #2
25. 641 - Ridgewood NJ - 19:59.78 - 115.8 - NE #2

(note: all of the teams in the final NXN field are listed above; this is a VERY strong year where I feel like any of the 7 potential At-Large teams listed above would have easily made it in any other year, with the top 3 at-large teams potentially being the best At-Large teams ever invited. To go along with an incredible individual field, this year looks like it'll be the best field ever on the girls side and probably boys as well!)

Also, it should be noted that obviously if you take out the 3 teams that didn't make the field, the scores would change as would the order of teams, but in general the groupings would remain intact which is as accurate as you can realistically expect to be in any projection.

Additionally, here are the top individuals from the NXR races; individuals in bold qualified for nationals, individuals underlined and in italics did NOT qualify and did not receive At-Large invites (to my knowledge). 45 of the Top 50 made it into the field, with the top performances not advancing being from #23, #32, #43, #49 and #50.

Girls Top-50 Individuals:

1. 171.3 - Katelyn Tuohy - Lady Raiders XC - NY #1
2. 166.8 - Sydney Thorvaldson - Unattached - NW #1
3. 164.7 - Claire Walters - Manlius XC - NY #2
4. 162.8 - Zofia Dudek - Purple Track Club (MI)  - MW #1
5. 162.6 - Katelynne Hart - West Glenbard (IL)  - MW #2
6. 161.8 - Fiona Max - Storm over Bend - NW #2
7. 161.1 - Kate Peters - Red Bird Running Club - NW #3
8. 160.4 - Allie Janke - North Spokane - NW #4
9. 157.3 - DOROSTKAR, Carlie - Canyon Crest Academy-SDS - CA #1
10. 156.5 - Sasha NEGLIA - Dobyns-Bennett XC - SE #1
11. 156.4 - Taylor Ewert - Creek Strong (OH)  - MW #3
12. 156.0 - Athena YOUNG - Morgantown XC - SE #2
13. 155.4 - Tatum David - Unattached - MW #4
14. 154.9 - Riley Stewart - Colorado Bruins - SW #1
15. 154.2 - Charlotte Bednar - UNA-NJ-Bednar - NE #1
16. 153.7 - Jenna Schulz - LPXC - NY #3
17. 152.3 - SMITH, Corie - Buchanan-CS - CA #2
18. 152.3 - Erin Strzelecki - Unattached - MW #5
19. 151.1 - Mattalyn Geddes - Unat-Geddes-Mattalyn - NW #5
20. 150.8 - Annalyssa Crain - Unattached - MW #6
21. 150.5 - Chloe Foerster - STUMPTOWN XC CLUB - NW #6
22. 149.9 - Brynn Brown - SOUTHSIDE RC - SO #1
23. 149.9 - Zoe Duffus - Unattached - MW #7
24. 149.8 - Eliza Arrington - Lone Peak XC - SW #2
25. 149.8 - Samantha Blair - UNA CO - SW #3
26. 149.7 - Colleen Stegmann - Reedy RC - SO #2
27. 149.7 - Carlee Hansen - UNA UT - SW #4
28. 149.5 - Hannah Kaercher - Manlius XC - NY #4
29. 149.2 - Cameron McConnell - Cougar XC - SW #5
30. 149.1 - Chloe Gonzalez - Hunterdon Lions Track Club - NE #2
31. 148.8 - Lauren Ping - Thunder Running Club - SW #6
32. 148.3 - Ava Parekh - Unattached - MW #8
33. 148.2 - Meghan Ford - Buffalo City Running Club - HL #1
34. 148.0 - Julia David Smith - Fly Eagles Fly - NW #7
35. 147.8 - KLOS, Alexandra - Vista Del Lago-SJS - CA #3
36. 147.7 - MCCLAIN, Harper - St Helena-NCS - CA #4
37. 147.4 - Eva Jess - Franklin RC - SO #3
38. 147.2 - Teaghan Knox - Storm over Bend - NW #8
39. 147.0 - Sage Brooks - HKXC - NW #9
40. 146.8 - CHAMBERLAIN, Riley - Del Oro-SJS - CA #5
41. 146.5 - Kylie Hartnett - Helena Novas - NW #10
42. 146.1 - Jenna Mulhern - West Chester XC Club - NE #3
43. 146.1 - Lucy Huelskamp - Apollos Cross Country - NW #11
44. 145.9 - Lea HATCHER - Morgantown XC - SE #3
45. 145.8 - Ava GORDON - The Jungle TC - SE #4
46. 145.6 - Brooke Rauber - Black Knights - NY #5
47. 145.5 - Kate Sperka - Muskego XC Club - HL #2
48. 145.3 - Marie Hostetler - Unattached - HL #3
49. 145.3 - Karina James - Unattached - MW #9
50. 145.3 - Brooke Stromsland - Unattached - MW #10

Top Boys Teams/Individuals from NXR Meets

Here's a fun little look in case I don't get around to posting a proper NXN Projection this year. Every year, when looking through the regional races, I rate all of the races and throw them into a large field and parse it down until I get the top few teams so that I can gauge how well potential At-Large teams (and sometimes teams that might have finished fifth or sixth in a really strong region) might fare against the AQ teams already in the field. To that end, here is the scoring I had from NXR results ONLY for the 18 AQ teams + the top 7 non-AQ teams. Again, this does NOT represent who I think was necessarily the most deserving At-Large teams this year, but rather how everyone compared at the NXR meets specifically.

Included are the merged scores, the team time average from their meet, the associated ratings for that average time, the region they competed in and the place they got at the meet. Teams in bold are in the NXN field, teams underlined were eligible for At-Large consideration, and teams in italics were teams that were not eligible for At-Large consideration (were outside the top 4 at their regional meet).

Boys Teams:

1. 154 - Newbury Park CA - 15:05.34 - 191.3 - CA #1
2. 177 - Corner Canyon UT - 15:25.14 - 188.2 - SW #1
3. 181 - Great Oak CA - 15:16.50 - 187.6 - CA #2
4. 224 - Loudoun Valley VA - 15:33.18 - 186.5 - SE #1
5. 243 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL - 15:42.72 - 185.1 - MW #1
6. 246 - Mountain Vista CO - 15:33.91 - 185.2 - SW #2
7. 270 - Dakota Ridge CO - 15:33.10 - 185.5 - SW #3
8. 270 - Southlake Carroll TX - 16:01.63 - 184.4 - SO #1
9. 293 - Western Albemarle VA - 15:40.88 - 183.9 - SE #2
10. 295 - Dana Hills CA - 15:26.58 - 184.1 - CA #3
11. 298 - La Salle Academy RI - 16:26.68 - 184.1 - NE #1
12. 316 - Kamiakin WA - 15:58.90 - 183.9 - NW #1
13. 318 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 16:26.44 - 184.2 - NY #1
14. 342 - Elmhurst (York) IL - 15:51.80 - 182.0 - MW #2
15. 356 - Severna Park MD - 15:48.52 - 181.3 - SE #3
16. 363 - El Paso Eastwood TX - 16:09.72 - 181.7 - SO #3
17. 366 - The Woodlands TX - 16:10.89 - 181.3 - SO #2
18. 374 - Flower Mound TX - 16:12.15 - 180.9 - SO #4
19. 375 - Franklin OR - 16:03.32 - 182.4 - NW #3
20. 388 - Jesuit CA - 15:33.60 - 181.7 - CA #4
21. 394 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ - 16:36.80 - 180.9 - NE #2
22. 397 - Jesuit OR - 16:10.52 - 180.1 - NW #2
23. 480 - Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake NY - 16:48.80 - 177.0 - NY #2
24. 542 - Mounds View MN - 15:57.88 - 175.7 - HL #1
25. 610 - Stevens Point WI - 16:04.76 - 173.3 - HL #2

(note: St. Charles East IL was invited as an At-Large team this year but didn't make the cut for the list above; I feel they were a good selection, not based on their NXR race, but on the body of their season. At NXR, their #1 was well off his usual, and while that alone wouldn't have put them clearly ahead of teams like Severna Park or El Paso Eastwood, they would have been in the same range as Franklin and Flower Mound, and with multiple wins over Wheaton-Warrenville South and York during the season that's good enough in my eyes)

Also, it should be noted that obviously if you take out the 4 teams that didn't make the field (and add in St. Charles East), the scores would change as would the order of teams, but in general the groupings would remain intact which is as accurate as you can realistically expect to be in any projection.

Additionally, here are the top individuals from the NXR races; individuals in bold qualified for nationals, individuals underlined and in italics did NOT qualify and did not receive At-Large invites (to my knowledge). Not as many of the top performers made it into the field compared to the girls with only 43 of the Top 50 advancing. Not making it were #22, #27, #29, #32, #44, #49 and #50.

Boys Top-50 Individuals:

1. 203.9 - YOUNG, Nico - Newbury Park-SS - CA #1
2. 202.9 - Cole Sprout - UNA CO - SW #1
3. 202.7 - Carson Belnap - Stansbury XC - SW #2
4. 202.6 - Ryan Schoppe - La Porte XC Club - SO #1
5. 202.3 - Evan Holland - Lithia Distance Project - NW #1
6. 200.1 - Josh Methner - Arlington XC (IL)  - MW #1
7. 198.9 - Nathan Green - Lions XC - NW #2
8. 198.8 - STRANGIO, Matt - Jesuit-SJS - CA #2
9. 198.5 - Caleb Brown - Unattached - MW #2
10. 198.5 - Cruz Culpepper - REAL Training - SW #3
11. 198.4 - Graham BLANKS - Unattached - SE #1
12. 198.3 - Connor Ohlson - Hogback XC - SW #4
13. 198.0 - Aidan Palmer - Mount Tabor TC - NW #3
14. 198.0 - Wil Smith - SOUTH CENTRAL - NW #4
15. 197.8 - Judson Greer - Unattached - SO #2
16. 197.7 - Isaac Teeples - Braves Soul - NW #5
17. 197.4 - Mhalicki Bronson - Unattached - MW #3
18. 197.4 - Evan Bishop - Unattached - MW #4
19. 197.3 - Dylan Schubert - UNA CO - SW #5
20. 197.2 - Yasin Sado - UNA CO - SW #6
21. 197.1 - Tristian Merchant - Unat-Merchant-Tristian - NW #6
22. 197.0 - Parker Wolfe - UNA CO - SW #7
23. 196.8 - Peyton Geehrer - Manlius XC - NY #1
24. 196.8 - Sean STUCK - West Springfield XC - SE #2
25. 196.8 - Anthony Monte - Venom XC - SO #3
26. 196.6 - Sully SHELTON - Hoya TC - SE #3
27. 196.2 - Ahmed Ibrahim - Broncos - NW #7
28. 196.1 - Jack Spamer - Unattached - MW #5
29. 196.1 - Creed Thompson - Falcons XC - SW #8
30. 196.0 - William Chaffin - Patriot Athletics Club - NE #1
31. 196.0 - Brendan Favazza - Unattached - MW #6
32. 195.9 - Dalton Mortensen - Bountiful XC - SW #9
33. 195.7 - Ian HARRISON - Catamount XC - SE #4
34. 195.6 - Abraham Avila-Martinez - Saints - SO #4
35. 195.5 - Jack McLoughlin - La Salle Academy - NE #2
36. 195.5 - Lisandro Berry-Gavi - UNA-ME-Berry-Gaviria - NE #3
37. 195.3 - ASCHBRENNER, Jace - Newbury Park-SS - CA #3
38. 195.1 - Ben Shearer - Warriors - SO #5
39. 195.0 - Carlos SHULTZ - The Jungle TC - SE #5
40. 194.1 - Sam Lawler - Vikings XC - NY #2
41. 194.1 - Shaw Powell - Brothers TC - NE #4
42. 193.7 - Justin WILSON - Wickham Park DP - SE #6
43. 193.7 - Mark Boyle - Draper XC - SW #10
44. 193.6 - Gus McIntyre - UNA CO - SW #11
45. 193.4 - Jackson Braddock - UNA-NJ-Braddock - NE #5
46. 193.2 - DENKER, CARRICK - Dana Hills-SS - CA #4
47. 193.1 - Jack ELIASON - Crozet Crew - SE #7
48. 193.0 - GALINDO, Isaiah - Clovis North-CS - CA #5
49. 192.9 - Nicklaus Brawner - Park - SO #6
50. 192.8 - Peter Visser - SVXC - NW #8

Girls NXR NY/NE Results/Ratings (merged)

For the New York and Northeast regional, rather than listing their results separately, I decided that I'll post them as a merged region here for a slightly different look than you'll see elsewhere (it's easy to find the results for any NXR meet, and I don't think many if any that read this blog will be too concerned about my ratings for the teams/individuals that wouldn't be included due to merging the results since they can see Meylan's speed ratings - which are derived slightly differently and as a result aren't quite matches for what I'm doing)

Ratings Estimate: 200.0 = 15:37

Teams/Individuals in bold qualified for NXN Nationals.

Top-22 Girls Teams:

1. 69 - Saratoga Springs NY - 94:43.80 - New York A Runner-up - 136.0
2. 70 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 93:46.00 - New York A Champion - 139.7
3. 145 - North Hunterdon NJ - 97:17.00 - New Jersey MOC Champion - 126.2
4. 196 - North Rockland NY - 96:45.00 - New York A Third Place - 128.3
5. 219 - Ridgewood NJ - 99:58.90 - New Jersey MOC Runner-up - 115.9
6. 221 - Champlain Valley VT - 99:51.30 - New England Champion - 116.4
7. 235 - Middletown South NJ - 99:50.50 - New Jersey MOC Third Place - 116.4
8. 272 - Concord-Carlisle MA - 100:41.00 - Massachusetts D1 Champion - 113.2
9. 286 - Liverpool NY - 100:05.10 - New York A Section 3 Runner-up - 115.5
10. 288 - East Aurora NY - 101:00.30 - New York B Champion - 111.9
11. 316 - Niskayuna NY - 101:50.50 - New York A Section 2 Third Place - 108.7
12. 329 - Colts Neck NJ - 101:42.30 - New Jersey MOC Fifth Place - 109.2
13. 337 - Souhegan NH - 102:03.30 - New England Ninth Place - 107.9
14. 349 - Bethlehem NY - 102:08.60 - New York A Section 2 Fourth Place - 107.6
15. 355 - Kingsway NJ - 102:27.90 - New Jersey MOC Seventh Place - 106.3
16. 369 - State College Area PA - 102:47.40 - Pennsylvania 3A Runner-up - 105.1
17. 381 - Shenendehowa NY - 103:03.40 - New York A Section 2 Runner-up - 104.1
18. 387 - Arlington NY - 103:20.80 - New York A Section 1 Runner-up - 102.9
19. 390 - Corning NY - 103:22.70 - New York A Fourth Place - 102.8
20. 399 - West Chester Henderson PA - 102:42.00 - Pennsylvania 3A #13 - 105.4
21. 419 - Concord NH - 103:45.40 - New England Third Place - 101.4
22. 423 - Trumbull CT - 103:51.40 - New England Fifth Place - 101.0

Top-100 Girls Individuals:

1. 171.3 - 17:06.6 - Katelyn Tuohy, SR - Lady Raiders XC
2. 164.7 - 17:27.1 - Claire Walters, SR - Manlius XC
3. 154.2 - 18:00.0 - Charlotte Bednar, SO - UNA-NJ-Bednar
4. 153.7 - 18:01.7 - Jenna Schulz, SR - LPXC
5. 149.5 - 18:14.7 - Hannah Kaercher, FR - Manlius XC
6. 149.1 - 18:15.9 - Chloe Gonzalez, SR - Hunterdon Lions Track Club
7. 146.1 - 18:25.2 - Jenna Mulhern, SO - West Chester XC Club
8. 145.6 - 18:26.8 - Brooke Rauber, JR - Black Knights
9. 145.0 - 18:28.7 - Ella Kurto, SO - Kinetic
10. 142.1 - 18:37.7 - Haleigh Morales, SR - Lady Raiders XC
11. 141.4 - 18:40.0 - Meg Madison, 8 - Hemlock XC
12. 140.7 - 18:42.2 - Sarah Connelly, SR - Mount Sinai Mustangs
13. 139.8 - 18:45.1 - Rylee Davis, FR - Delmar XC
14. 139.5 - 18:46.0 - McKinley Wheeler, FR - Kinetic
15. 139.2 - 18:47.0 - Sheridan Wheeler, FR - Kinetic
16. 138.8 - 18:48.0 - Sydney Nowicki, JR - UNA-NY-Nowicki
17. 138.5 - 18:49.0 - Lucy Jenks, SR - UNA-MA-Jenks
18. 136.1 - 18:56.6 - Elizabeth Lucason, SO - Syracuse Track Club-Camden
19. 136.1 - 18:56.7 - Reese Fahys, FR - Middle South XC Club
20. 134.7 - 19:01.1 - Emma Kerimo, JR - Patriot Athletics Club
21. 134.6 - 19:01.4 - Brynn Bernard, 8 - UNA-NY-Bernard
22. 133.4 - 19:05.1 - Lilly Shapiro, SO - Colts Neck TC
23. 132.8 - 19:07.0 - Ava Jolley, JR - UNA-NY-Jolley
24. 132.7 - 19:07.1 - Chloe Trudel, SO - Sabers XC
25. 132.7 - 19:07.3 - Phoebe White, SR - Manlius XC
26. 132.1 - 19:09.0 - Ava Duggan, SR - Wildcats
27. 131.6 - 19:10.7 - Magdalyn Hoffman, JR - Hunterdon Lions Track Club
28. 131.2 - 19:11.9 - Gionna Quarzo, SR - UNA-PA-Quarzo
29. 131.1 - 19:12.3 - Hannah Ielfield, JR - UNA-NY-Ielfield
30. 130.8 - 19:13.1 - Candace Tytler, SO - UNA-NY-Tytler
31. 130.1 - 19:15.4 - Mackenzie Hart, SO - Kinetic
32. 129.9 - 19:16.1 - Sarah Trainor, SR - Fireside XC
33. 128.9 - 19:19.0 - Megan McLaughlin, SO - Aurora Runners
34. 128.4 - 19:20.5 - Peyton Ellis, FR - UNA-PA-Ellis
35. 128.0 - 19:21.9 - Keeley Misutka, JR - UNA-PA-Misutka
36. 127.7 - 19:22.7 - Alicia Veronneau, JR - Champlain Valley
37. 127.7 - 19:22.7 - Lexi Bernard, SO - UNA-NY-Bernard
38. 127.6 - 19:23.2 - Allison Pierontoni, SR - Kingsway
39. 127.2 - 19:24.3 - Katie Hamilton, JR - Blue Devil TC
40. 126.9 - 19:25.2 - Grace Kaercher, JR - Manlius XC
41. 126.8 - 19:25.7 - Emily Toth-Ratazzi, SO - UNA-NY-Toth-Ratazzi
42. 126.7 - 19:26.0 - Kaylie Armitage, JR - La Salle Academy
43. 126.5 - 19:26.7 - Emily Bush, 8 - Kinetic
44. 126.3 - 19:27.3 - Georgia Jones, SR - Sabers XC
45. 126.2 - 19:27.5 - Kaylee Lacreta, JR - UNA-NY-Lacreta
46. 125.8 - 19:28.7 - Alessandra Zaffina, SR - Trumbull Running
47. 125.6 - 19:29.4 - Kathryn Rodrigues, SR - UNA-CT-Rodrigues
48. 125.3 - 19:30.3 - Caroline Livingston, JR - Eagle Speed
49. 125.1 - 19:30.8 - Madison Relyea, JR - UNA-NY-Relyea
50. 124.9 - 19:31.7 - Debbie Lucchetti, SO - Manlius XC
51. 124.8 - 19:31.8 - Lily Potthast, SR - UNA-NY-Potthast
52. 124.5 - 19:32.7 - Karis Ertel, SR - Aurora Runners
53. 124.0 - 19:34.4 - Annalee Capuano, SO - UNA-NY-Capuano
54. 124.0 - 19:34.5 - Madelyn Dinneen, SO - UNA-NY-Dinneen
55. 123.3 - 19:36.6 - Jada Dennis, SR - Outliers
56. 122.8 - 19:38.2 - Liyat Kebbede, SO - Niskayuna TC
57. 122.7 - 19:38.4 - Miranda Lorsbach, SO - UNA-NJ-Lorsbach
58. 122.6 - 19:38.8 - Abigail Horevay, SO - UNA-NJ-Horevay
59. 121.3 - 19:42.8 - Boler Erin, FR - Niskayuna TC
60. 121.0 - 19:43.7 - Alice Larson, JR - Champlain Valley
61. 120.9 - 19:44.1 - Meganne Gilmore, SR - UNA-VT-Gilmore
62. 120.8 - 19:44.3 - Annamarie Tretola, SO - Ridgewood XC
63. 120.5 - 19:45.4 - Faith Demars, SR - Radar Running Club
64. 120.3 - 19:45.9 - Addison Schmidt, SO - Hunterdon Lions Track Club
65. 120.2 - 19:46.2 - Brynne Wright, SR - Witches TC
66. 119.3 - 19:49.1 - Sydney Todd, SR - Monmouth Track Club
67. 118.6 - 19:51.2 - Kate Putman, FR - UNA-NY-Putman
68. 118.5 - 19:51.6 - Gillian Roeder, SR - Delmar XC
69. 118.4 - 19:51.8 - Sophia Reich, SO - Hunterdon Lions Track Club
70. 118.4 - 19:51.8 - Lily Williams, SO - Ridgewood XC
71. 117.8 - 19:53.7 - Catherine Mongan, SO - Kinetic
72. 117.5 - 19:54.7 - Nora Johnson, JR - Patriot Athletics Club
73. 116.9 - 19:56.4 - Faithe Ketchum, SO - Corning Track Club
74. 116.7 - 19:57.1 - Iris Bergman, JR - Patriot Athletics Club
75. 116.7 - 19:57.3 - Emily Brown, SR - UNA-NY-Brown
76. 116.5 - 19:57.7 - Olivia Shattuck, SO - Ridgewood XC
77. 116.2 - 19:58.8 - Jasmine Nails, SO - Champlain Valley
78. 116.1 - 19:59.0 - Mackenzie Hayden, SR - Sabers XC
79. 116.0 - 19:59.3 - Catherine Ruffino, SR - Lady Raiders XC
80. 115.9 - 19:59.6 - Raven Stanet, JR - Admirals XC
81. 115.9 - 19:59.7 - Angelina Perez, SO - UNA-NJ-Perez
82. 115.8 - 19:59.9 - Holly Arrison, JR - UNA-NY-Arrison
83. 115.6 - 20:00.7 - Miranda Gilbert, SR - UNA-NY-Gilbert
84. 115.3 - 20:01.5 - Claire Hamlet, JR - Ridgewood XC
85. 114.9 - 20:02.9 - Gwen Afanasewicz, FR - Middle South XC Club
86. 114.3 - 20:04.8 - Lucy Afanasewicz, SO - Middle South XC Club
87. 113.8 - 20:06.3 - Rebecca Wusinich, SR - Phoenix XC Club
88. 113.6 - 20:06.8 - Claire Mason, SR - Corning Track Club
89. 113.6 - 20:07.0 - Ava Wilmot, FR - Colts Neck TC
90. 113.1 - 20:08.3 - Kate Sherman, JR - Mohonasen XC
91. 112.7 - 20:09.8 - Mia Paolino, 8 - Havoc XC
92. 112.5 - 20:10.3 - Michelle Coyotl, SR - Middle South XC Club
93. 112.4 - 20:10.7 - Sydney Carlson, JR - LPXC
94. 112.2 - 20:11.2 - Marlee Kwasnica, FR - Nittany TFXC
95. 112.0 - 20:11.9 - Genna Girard, SR - Natick High School Girls
96. 111.8 - 20:12.6 - Sadie Holmes, SR - Champlain Valley
97. 111.7 - 20:12.7 - Alexandra Carlson, JR - Hunterdon Lions Track Club
98. 111.5 - 20:13.3 - Emmanuelle Degos, JR - UNA-RI-Degos
99. 111.4 - 20:13.8 - Julianna Elberson, FR - UNA-NY-Elberson
100. 111.2 - 20:14.2 - Maddy Mack, SO - UNA-NY-Mack

Boys NXR NY/NE Results/Ratings (merged)

For the New York and Northeast regional, rather than listing their results separately, I decided that I'll post them as a merged region here for a slightly different look than you'll see elsewhere (it's easy to find the results for any NXR meet, and I don't think many if any that read this blog will be too concerned about my ratings for the teams/individuals that wouldn't be included due to merging the results since they can see Meylan's speed ratings over at Tullyrunners.com - which are derived slightly differently and as a result aren't quite matches for what I'm doing)

Ratings Estimate: 200.0 = 15:37

Teams/Individuals in bold qualified for NXN Nationals.

Top-22 Boys Teams:

1. 108 - La Salle Academy RI - 82:13.40 - New England Champion - 184.1
2. 146 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 82:12.20 - New York A Champion - 184.2
3. 147 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ - 83:04.00 - New Jersey MOC Champion - 180.9
4. 172 - Downingtown West PA - 83:45.40 - Pennsylvania 3A Champion - 178.2
5. 209 - Coe-Brown Academy NH - 84:20.60 - New England Fourth Place - 175.9
6. 218 - Burnt Hills NY - 84:04.00 - New York B Champion - 177.0
7. 241 - Tolland CT - 84:35.10 - New England Third Place - 175.0
8. 258 - Cherokee NJ - 84:37.60 - New Jersey MOC Fourth Place - 174.9
9. 268 - Bishop Hendricken RI - 84:35.60 - New England Runner-up - 175.0
10. 288 - Shenendehowa NY - 85:19.00 - New York A Runner-up - 172.2
11. 290 - La Salle College PA - 85:17.10 - Pennsylvania 3A Runner-up - 172.3
12. 310 - Haddonfield Memorial NJ - 85:28.00 - New Jersey MOC Third Place - 171.6
13. 319 - Mount Academy NY - 85:40.90 - New York B Third Place - 170.8
14. 333 - Saranac Lake NY - 85:39.70 - New York C Champion - 170.9
15. 374 - Beaver River NY - 86:12.30 - New York D Champion - 168.8
16. 378 - Liverpool NY - 86:20.20 - New York A Section 3 Runner-up - 168.3
17. 394 - Saratoga Springs NY - 86:35.60 - New York A Section 2 Fourth Place - 167.3
18. 399 - Guilderland NY - 86:32.90 - New York A Section 2 Runner-up - 167.5
19. 412 - Pittsford Mendon NY - 86:32.40 - New York B Runner-up - 167.5
20. 415 - Cherry Hill East NJ - 86:51.90 - New Jersey MOC Eighth Place - 166.3
21. 419 - Wellesley MA - 86:56.10 - Massachusetts D1 Runner-up - 166.0
22. 421 - Concord-Carlisle MA - 86:30.50 - Massachusetts D1 Third Place - 167.6

Boys Top-100 Individuals:

1. 196.8 - 15:47.1 - Peyton Geehrer, JR - Manlius XC
2. 196.0 - 15:49.6 - William Chaffin, SR - Patriot Athletics Club
3. 195.5 - 15:50.9 - Jack McLoughlin, JR - La Salle Academy
4. 195.5 - 15:51.2 - Lisandro Berry-Gavi, SR - UNA-ME-Berry-Gaviria
5. 194.1 - 15:55.4 - Sam Lawler, SR - Vikings XC
6. 194.1 - 15:55.5 - Shaw Powell, SR - Brothers TC
7. 193.4 - 15:57.6 - Jackson Braddock, JR - UNA-NJ-Braddock
8. 192.4 - 16:00.6 - Evan Reynolds, JR - Hawks TC
9. 191.9 - 16:02.3 - Sam Otis, SR - Manlius XC
10. 191.0 - 16:05.1 - Henry Farrington, SR - The Swarm
11. 190.7 - 16:06.1 - Colton Kempney, SO - Beaver Dam XC
12. 190.4 - 16:06.9 - Ethan Wechsler, SR - Evesham Harriers
13. 189.9 - 16:08.4 - Geoff Howles, SR - Manlius XC
14. 189.9 - 16:08.6 - Ryan Allison, SO - Deluge XC
15. 189.0 - 16:11.4 - Will Shaughnessy, SR - UNA-ME-Shaughnessy
16. 186.8 - 16:18.1 - Joshua Stone, SR - UNA-NY-Stone
17. 186.7 - 16:18.5 - Max Dimuccio, SR - La Salle Academy
18. 185.5 - 16:22.2 - Getachew Hayes, SO - UNA-NY-Hayes
19. 185.4 - 16:22.5 - Robert Carew, SR - Wildcats
20. 185.3 - 16:23.0 - Daniel McGoey, SR - UNA-PA-McGoey
21. 185.0 - 16:23.8 - Alec Sauter, SR - Tolland XC Club
22. 184.9 - 16:24.2 - Peter Fogarty, JR - Red Storm Runners
23. 184.5 - 16:25.3 - Jacob Hess, SO - Turtle Creek Running Club
24. 184.4 - 16:25.7 - Lucas Beyer, SR - Canisius AMDG
25. 184.3 - 16:26.1 - Sean O'Brien, SR - Guilderland Track Club
26. 184.2 - 16:26.4 - Chase Leach, JR - La Salle Academy
27. 183.2 - 16:29.4 - Aiden Barnhill, JR - Whippets Footracing Team
28. 182.2 - 16:32.5 - Ethan Maher, SR - La Salle College XC Club
29. 181.8 - 16:33.7 - Nicolas Ferretti, SR - UNA-NY-Ferretti
30. 181.7 - 16:34.1 - Oliver Adler, SR - Cherry Hill East Track Club
31. 181.6 - 16:34.5 - Jason Linzer, SR - UNA-NY-Linzer
32. 181.5 - 16:34.9 - Martin Riddell, SR - Haddonfield RC
33. 181.0 - 16:36.2 - Caleb Bender, JR - UNA-NY-Bender
34. 180.7 - 16:37.2 - Jake McGowan, JR - LPXC
35. 180.7 - 16:37.4 - Will Marchant, SR - Deluge XC
36. 180.6 - 16:37.5 - Ryan Cartwright, JR - LPXC
37. 180.6 - 16:37.5 - Matthew Jennings, JR - THE DEN- HKXC
38. 180.4 - 16:38.3 - Declan Rymer, JR - Whippets Footracing Team
39. 180.1 - 16:39.3 - James Catania, JR - Red Storm Runners
40. 180.1 - 16:39.3 - Aidan Cox, FR - Black Bear XC
41. 179.9 - 16:39.8 - Tyler Chambers, SR - La Salle Academy
42. 179.7 - 16:40.3 - Matt Bartolotta, SR - UNA-NY-Bartolotta
43. 179.5 - 16:40.9 - Brady Tooker, JR - Racing City
44. 179.3 - 16:41.6 - Ben Santos, JR - Brothers TC
45. 179.0 - 16:42.7 - Chris Desousa, JR - Brothers TC
46. 178.9 - 16:42.8 - Cory Demo, JR - Beaver Dam XC
47. 178.6 - 16:43.9 - David Delbonis, SR - Hawks TC
48. 178.5 - 16:44.3 - Ben Datte, SR - Whippets Footracing Team
49. 178.0 - 16:45.6 - Luke Henseler, SR - Hawks TC
50. 177.9 - 16:46.1 - Chase Miller, SR - Evesham Harriers
51. 177.5 - 16:47.3 - Luke Tkaczyk, JR - Black Bear XC
52. 177.0 - 16:48.9 - Pedro Bravo, SR - UNA-NY-Bravo
53. 176.9 - 16:49.3 - Jack Moran, SO - Brothers TC
54. 176.6 - 16:50.2 - Ryan Shanahan, SR - Outliers
55. 176.5 - 16:50.3 - Jackson Cayward, JR - Tolland XC Club
56. 176.5 - 16:50.5 - Brady Martisus, JR - The Swarm
57. 176.2 - 16:51.2 - Jason Norris, SR - Average Broes
58. 176.2 - 16:51.2 - Dawson Dubois, SR - Black Bear XC
59. 176.0 - 16:52.0 - Bryan Spence, SR - Outliers
60. 175.8 - 16:52.6 - Myles Hogan, SO - Fordham Prep XC
61. 175.5 - 16:53.4 - Holden Betz, JR - Whippets Footracing Team
62. 175.5 - 16:53.5 - Ike Blough, SO - Mount XC
63. 175.4 - 16:53.7 - Will Loggia, SR - Blue Devil TC
64. 175.2 - 16:54.6 - Carter Sylvester, JR - Black Bear XC
65. 175.1 - 16:54.9 - Troy Hill, SR - Brothers TC
66. 174.9 - 16:55.3 - Kevin Board, SR - Deluge XC
67. 174.6 - 16:56.3 - Josh Christianson, SR - UNA-PA-Christianson
68. 174.6 - 16:56.3 - Ethan McIntyre, JR - U-Ville
69. 174.6 - 16:56.4 - Matthew Rounds, FR - Deluge XC
70. 174.4 - 16:57.1 - Gavin Ehlers, SO - Hurricanes Track Club
71. 174.3 - 16:57.2 - Fred Goodwin, JR - Mount XC
72. 174.1 - 16:57.8 - Alex Maxwell, JR - La Salle Academy
73. 174.0 - 16:58.2 - Nathan Paolangeli, SR - Tolland XC Club
74. 173.8 - 16:58.9 - Francisco Mendonca, JR - Bison Herd
75. 173.7 - 16:59.1 - Andrew Gostovich, SR - Haddonfield RC
76. 173.6 - 16:59.5 - Adam Thibodeau, SO - La Salle Academy
77. 173.5 - 16:59.8 - Caleb Clevenger, JR - Haddonfield RC
78. 173.4 - 17:00.0 - Caelen Sims, SR - Whippets Footracing Team
79. 173.2 - 17:00.8 - Travis Meier, SR - Mount XC
80. 173.0 - 17:01.2 - Gabriel Planty, SR - UNA-NY-Planty
81. 172.9 - 17:01.7 - James Peden, JR - Manlius XC
82. 172.8 - 17:02.1 - Andrew Fogarty, JR - Red Storm Runners
83. 172.7 - 17:02.4 - Austin True, SR - UNA-NJ-True
84. 172.6 - 17:02.6 - Aidar Matthews, JR - Cow Harbor
85. 172.4 - 17:03.2 - Quincy Flett, SO - Knights TC
86. 172.4 - 17:03.3 - Jeremiah Ford, SR - Haight Hill Mountain Goats
87. 172.2 - 17:03.7 - Micah Benson, SR - The Minutemen Running Club
88. 172.2 - 17:03.7 - Tobias Gaynor, SR - Morristown Militia
89. 172.0 - 17:04.4 - Daniel Caso, SR - Admirals XC
90. 171.9 - 17:04.8 - Matthew Bogdan, JR - Colts Neck TC
91. 171.8 - 17:05.2 - Torrey Jacobson-Eva, SR - Corning Track Club
92. 171.7 - 17:05.3 - Nathan Brimhall, SO - Outliers
93. 171.7 - 17:05.4 - Killian McNamee, SR - Tolland XC Club
94. 171.4 - 17:06.2 - Alex Hillyard, SR - Aurora Runners
95. 171.2 - 17:06.8 - Jack Parsons, SR - Guilderland Track Club
96. 171.1 - 17:07.3 - Patrick Coyle, JR - La Salle College XC Club
97. 170.8 - 17:08.2 - Logan Mihelich, JR - Black Bear XC
98. 170.7 - 17:08.4 - Bradden Koors, SR - La Salle College XC Club
99. 170.7 - 17:08.6 - Charlie King, JR - Ridgefield
100. 170.6 - 17:08.9 - Brett Shea, JR - Evesham Harriers

NJ Meet of Champions Results/Ratings

Strong performances for many teams and individuals, all of whom should be contenders for NXR Northeast titles.

Ratings Estimate: 200.0 = 15:20

Boys Teams:

1. 62 - Christian Brothers Academy - 81:16 - 182.0
2. 119 - Mendham - 82:32 - 177.0
3. 129 - Haddonfield Memorial - 82:48 - 176.0
4. 136 - Cherokee - 82:33 - 177.0
5. 140 - West Windsor-Plainsboro North - 83:06 - 174.8
6. 210 - Ridge - 83:54 - 171.7
7. 216 - Old Bridge - 84:14 - 170.4
8. 217 - Cherry Hill East - 83:49 - 172.0
9. 226 - West Windsor Plainsboro South - 84:31 - 169.3
10. 234 - Colts Neck - 84:21 - 169.9
11. 266 - Westfield - 84:53 - 167.8
12. 273 - North Hunterdon - 85:23 - 165.9
13. 298 - Freehold Township - 85:26 - 165.7
14. 330 - St. Peter's Prep - 85:45 - 164.5
15. 396 - Manalapan - 86:46 - 160.5
16. 415 - Bernards - 87:08 - 159.0
17. 418 - Immaculata - 89:22 - 150.3
18. 419 - Haddon Township - 87:19 - 158.3
19. 553 - Newark Academy - 92:32 - 137.9
20. 567 - Shore Regional - 91:15 - 142.9

Boys Top-50 Individuals:

1. 199.0 - 15:23 - Liam Murphy, 12 - Allentown NJ
2. 197.1 - 15:29 - Kevin Antczak, 12 - Mainland Regional NJ
3. 193.2 - 15:41 - Shaw Powell, 12 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ
4. 193.2 - 15:41 - Ethan Wechsler, 12 - Cherokee NJ
5. 190.9 - 15:48 - Oliver Adler, 12 - Cherry Hill East NJ
6. 190.2 - 15:50 - Jackson Braddock, 11 - Southern Regional NJ
7. 188.6 - 15:55 - Jackson Barna, 10 - Ridge NJ
8. 187.6 - 15:58 - Martin Riddell, 12 - Haddonfield Memorial NJ
9. 185.0 - 16:06 - Matthew Bogdan, 11 - Colts Neck NJ
10. 184.7 - 16:07 - Philmon Mehari, 12 - Livingston NJ
11. 184.3 - 16:08 - Vidhur Polam, 11 - South Brunswick NJ
12. 183.4 - 16:11 - Luke Johnson, 12 - West Windsor-Plainsboro North NJ
13. 183.0 - 16:12 - Anas Bensaoud, 11 - Clearview Reg. NJ
14. 183.0 - 16:12 - Jack Jennings, 12 - Mendham NJ
15. 182.7 - 16:13 - Ben Santos, 11 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ
16. 182.7 - 16:13 - Zachary Hodges, 11 - Mendham NJ
17. 182.4 - 16:14 - Chris DeSousa, 11 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ
18. 182.1 - 16:15 - Luke Bradley, 10 - St. Peter's Prep NJ
19. 181.7 - 16:16 - Christian Cadmus, 12 - New Providence NJ
20. 181.1 - 16:18 - Austin Gabay, 12 - Cinnaminson NJ
21. 181.1 - 16:18 - Ryan Kear, 12 - Mendham NJ
22. 181.1 - 16:18 - Chase Miller, 12 - Cherokee NJ
23. 180.4 - 16:20 - Will Loggia, 12 - Westfield NJ
24. 179.8 - 16:22 - Nikhil Makker, 10 - West Windsor-Plainsboro North NJ
25. 179.1 - 16:24 - Charles Harvey, 12 - Old Bridge NJ
26. 178.8 - 16:25 - Sebastien Reed, 12 - Pitman NJ
27. 178.8 - 16:25 - Nathan Armstrong, 11 - Pompton Lakes NJ
28. 178.5 - 16:26 - Ben Fanta, 12 - West Windsor Plainsboro South NJ
29. 178.2 - 16:27 - Maximus Russo, 12 - Oratory Preparatory School NJ
30. 177.8 - 16:28 - Andrew Gostovich, 12 - Haddonfield Memorial NJ
31. 177.2 - 16:30 - Joseph LoCurcio, 12 - Freehold Boro NJ
32. 176.8 - 16:31 - Devon Meth, 12 - Lawrence NJ
33. 176.8 - 16:31 - Robert Hannon, 12 - Pt. Pleasant Beach NJ
34. 176.5 - 16:32 - Tobias Gaynor, 12 - Morristown NJ
35. 176.2 - 16:33 - Jack Moran, 10 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ
36. 175.5 - 16:35 - Troy Hill, 12 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ
37. 175.5 - 16:35 - Dylan Fritz, 12 - Voorhees NJ
38. 174.9 - 16:37 - Brady Shute, 11 - Co-op Gateway / Woodbury NJ
39. 174.6 - 16:38 - Kevin Yucetepe, 12 - Westfield NJ
40. 174.2 - 16:39 - James Ptack, 11 - Immaculata NJ
41. 174.2 - 16:39 - Michael Keefe, 12 - Old Bridge NJ
42. 173.9 - 16:40 - Jeffrey Chen, 10 - West Windsor-Plainsboro North NJ
43. 173.9 - 16:40 - Steven Hatano, 11 - NV - Old Tappan NJ
44. 173.9 - 16:40 - Alec Gironda, 12 - Chatham NJ
45. 173.6 - 16:41 - Will Pinto, 11 - Ridge NJ
46. 172.9 - 16:43 - Seth Clevenger, 10 - Haddonfield Memorial NJ
47. 172.9 - 16:43 - Dennis Fortuna, 10 - Triton Regional NJ
48. 172.9 - 16:43 - Austin True, 12 - West Windsor Plainsboro South NJ
49. 172.6 - 16:44 - TJ Harkins, 12 - Immaculata NJ
50. 172.6 - 16:44 - John Ignacz, 12 - North Hunterdon NJ

Girls Teams:

1. 65 - North Hunterdon - 95:13 - 127.4
2. 78 - Ridgewood - 96:32 - 122.3
3. 134 - Middletown South - 98:10 - 115.9
4. 172 - Haddonfield Memorial - 99:10 - 112.0
5. 187 - Colts Neck - 99:20 - 111.3
6. 188 - Holmdel - 99:27 - 110.8
7. 210 - Kingsway - 100:31 - 106.7
8. 211 - Mendham - 100:30 - 106.7
9. 233 - Ridge - 100:42 - 106.0
10. 274 - South Brunswick - 101:50 - 101.5
11. 279 - Red Bank Catholic - 101:48 - 101.7
12. 293 - Westfield - 102:27 - 99.1
13. 345 - Voorhees - 103:08 - 96.4
14. 358 - Union Catholic Reg. - 104:59 - 89.2
15. 367 - Hunterdon Central - 103:35 - 94.7
16. 367 - Metuchen - 104:09 - 92.5
17. 437 - Villa Walsh Academy - 107:07 - 80.8
18. 464 - A P Schalick - 108:24 - 75.8
19. 503 - New Providence - 108:38 - 74.9
20. 506 - Trinity Hall - 111:51 - 62.3

Girls Top-50 Individuals:

1. 149.1 - 17:56 - Chloe Gonzalez, 12 - North Hunterdon NJ
2. 141.6 - 18:19 - Caroline Mehlhorn, 10 - Montgomery NJ
3. 139.3 - 18:26 - Nicole Vanasse, 12 - Pingry School NJ
4. 134.5 - 18:41 - Emma McGill, 11 - Voorhees NJ
5. 134.5 - 18:41 - Reese Fahys, 9 - Middletown South NJ
6. 131.8 - 18:49 - Olivia Shafer, 12 - Egg Harbor Twp NJ
7. 129.2 - 18:57 - Magdalyn Hoffman, 11 - North Hunterdon NJ
8. 128.9 - 18:58 - Hayley Amisano, 10 - Mater Dei Prep NJ
9. 128.9 - 18:58 - Lilly Shapiro, 10 - Colts Neck NJ
10. 128.6 - 18:59 - Abigail Horevay, 10 - Lakeland Regional NJ
11. 128.3 - 19:00 - Laurel Kurtz, 11 - Hunterdon Central NJ
12. 128.3 - 19:00 - Olivia Shattuck, 10 - Ridgewood NJ
13. 127.6 - 19:02 - Kate Rathman, 12 - Cherokee NJ
14. 127.3 - 19:03 - Camryn Wennersten, 10 - Ridgewood NJ
15. 127.3 - 19:03 - Sarah Naticchia, 11 - Haddonfield Memorial NJ
16. 127.0 - 19:04 - Addison Schmidt, 10 - North Hunterdon NJ
17. 127.0 - 19:04 - Shannon Clancy, 12 - Bergen County Tech NJ
18. 126.6 - 19:05 - Corinne Barney, 12 - Indian Hills NJ
19. 126.3 - 19:06 - Sydney Todd, 12 - Monmouth Reg. NJ
20. 126.0 - 19:07 - Lily Williams, 10 - Ridgewood NJ
21. 125.7 - 19:08 - Emily Levonas, 12 - Holmdel NJ
22. 125.0 - 19:10 - Sarah Hanifin, 11 - Villa Walsh Academy NJ
23. 124.7 - 19:11 - Mia Dubac, 11 - Clifton NJ
24. 124.7 - 19:11 - Claudia Zhang, 12 - Holmdel NJ
25. 124.0 - 19:13 - Payton Weiner, 11 - Haddonfield Memorial NJ
26. 123.7 - 19:14 - Corina Vidal, 12 - Henry Hudson Reg NJ
27. 123.4 - 19:15 - Miranda Lorsbach, 10 - Kent Place School NJ
28. 122.4 - 19:18 - Laura Baeyens, 12 - Watchung Hills Reg. NJ
29. 121.7 - 19:20 - Natalie Shapiro, 12 - Colts Neck NJ
30. 121.7 - 19:20 - Yashika Chidirala, 12 - South Brunswick NJ
31. 120.4 - 19:24 - Lucy Afanasewicz, 10 - Middletown South NJ
32. 120.4 - 19:24 - Maddy Kopec, 12 - Red Bank Catholic NJ
33. 119.5 - 19:27 - Kate Ruona, 9 - Shawnee NJ
34. 118.5 - 19:30 - Manon Stephen, 12 - Ridge NJ
35. 117.8 - 19:32 - Andie Murray, 10 - Allentown NJ
36. 117.2 - 19:34 - Julia Shanes, 9 - Rumson-Fair Haven NJ
37. 117.2 - 19:34 - Ashlynne Burke, 11 - Kingsway NJ
38. 116.8 - 19:35 - Alexandra Carlson, 11 - North Hunterdon NJ
39. 116.2 - 19:37 - AnnaMarie Tretola, 10 - Ridgewood NJ
40. 115.9 - 19:38 - Katelyn King, 12 - Ridge NJ
41. 115.9 - 19:38 - Grace LaCapra, 10 - Ridge NJ
42. 115.5 - 19:39 - Grace Wassell, 9 - Highland Reg NJ
43. 115.5 - 19:39 - Lauren Judd, 12 - Ramapo NJ
44. 115.5 - 19:39 - Megan Smith, 10 - Mendham NJ
45. 115.2 - 19:40 - Andrea Dubbels, 12 - Clifton NJ
46. 114.9 - 19:41 - Sophia Reich, 10 - North Hunterdon NJ
47. 114.9 - 19:41 - Ava Wilmot, 9 - Colts Neck NJ
48. 113.9 - 19:44 - Callia Cordasco, 12 - West Windsor-Plainsboro North NJ
49. 113.6 - 19:45 - Claire Hamlet, 11 - Ridgewood NJ
50. 113.3 - 19:46 - Lia Acosta, 10 - St. Thomas Aquinas NJ

Breaking down the top girls teams in the nations

Since the first NXR region is coming up this weekend (the Heartland meet in South Dakota), I took a quick look at how the girls teams around the nation compare today, including a simulated psuedo-NXN field (I included the top 2 teams from each region, left in no more than 4 teams from any region, and included all of the regional #3/4 teams that look to be vying for an At-Large spot which gave me a field of 24).

Here's a list of the tiers, and their scoring range. Potential At-Large teams, given these projections, in bold.

Tier 1 (160-240 points) - Potential NXN Trophy finishers
NW (3): North Central WA, Summit OR, Boise ID
SW (2): Niwot CO, Lone Peak UT
NY (2): Fayetteville-Manlius NY, Saratoga Springs NY
MW (1): Beaver Creek OH
CA (1): Great Oak CA

Tier 2 (300-340 points) - Potential NXN Top 10/15, and potential At-Large invitees
NW (4): Jesuit OR, Lincoln OR, Bozeman MT and Timberline (Boise) ID ... the NW is VERY deep at the top this year
CA (3): Buchanan CA, St. Francis CA, Newbury Park CA
SW (2-3): Arapahoe CO, Battle Mountain CO and maybe Cherry Creek CO (they were just off this group at their state meet)

Tier 3 (380-425 points):
SE (2+): Loudoun Valley VA, Pine Crest FL (and maybe Green Hope NC)
MW (4+): East Grand Rapids MI, Downers Grove South IL, Naperville North IL, Ann Arbor Pioneer MI (and maybe Yorkville IL)
HL (1): Edina MN
... and maybe some NW/SW/CA teams that aren't looking like Top-4 regional teams

Tier 4 (440-480 points):
HL (2+): Muskego WI, Wayzata MN, and maybe St. Michael-Albertville MN
SO (2+): Southlake Carroll TX, Prosper TX, and maybe Kingwood/Vandegrift/Coppel
NE (2): North Allegheny PA, Ridgewood NJ
NY (1+): East Aurora NY
... and maybe some other NW/SW/CA/MW/SE/NY teams that aren't looking like they'll make NXN

Interesting that all of the top potential At-Large teams on the girls side are in the West (I don't think the story will be the same on the boys side, as a quick look suggests the Northeast is looking pretty solid this year and the Midwest is always a tough region)... but there haven't really been a third team from the NY to pop up, the SE/NE/SO teams aren't all that strong, the top Illinois teams have been beaten convincingly by SW teams outside the region's projected AQ squads, and the MW #3 team beat all the HL Top-4 teams, so unless someone comes out of the woodwork it's going to be a quartet of teams west of Texas that make the cut. Smart money, then, would probably be on the 4 teams non-AQ teams from the NW/SW/CA that finish closest to the top 2 at their regional meets -- likely at least one from each region, with the most competitive #4 earning the last spot.

note: for what it's worth I also checked the latest Dyestat national rankings (I would have also looked at milesplit for additional comparison, but those rankings are behind a paywall... *sigh*... way to promote the sport, guys...), but they are a bit out of date (Oct. 24) and are probably going to be updated this week which would include the first major round of State meets and the return of Allie Janke to North Central's lineup, all of which should be pretty favorable to the NW/SW regions. The main difference between what I have and what Dyestat has, beyond taking into account those two key points, is that they have remained higher on the top two Illinois teams than I have despite the results of Griak (Cherry Creek CO beat Naperville North IL 75-165) and Desert Twilight (Niwot CO 80, Cherokee Trail CO 97, Downers Grove South IL 123). It will be interesting to see how that changes in this week's update, though I'm guessing they won't rank Jesuit OR and Lincoln OR quite as highly as I have them until after the state meet.