NXN Boys Projections

So, if you hadn't noticed, I didn't end up posting the All-Time individual performance lists from the regionals after the first week. The Southwest was already probably not going to happen, because it was only the second year at the course, but the South being so muddy prevented me from doing that region either. I may at some point go back and review it for the races during the last weekend, but for now I'm just going to skip it since we would be missing a quarter of the regions anyways.

Instead, here is a post about how the NXN Nationals fields might be looking. Normally, these projections include many races for all the teams (most importantly NXR and each of their State meets, but also including some small weighting for season bests from invitationals if applicable), however as I haven't had time to do that for many teams this year this is almost strictly based on NXR (with a pair of slight exceptions on both sides as noted below).

Boys Teams:

120 Great Oak CA
191 Dana Hills CA
214 The Woodlands TX
226 Hopkins MN
247 Sandburg IL
262 American Fork UT
267 Timpanogos UT
272 Lone Peak UT
275 Mountain Vista CO
276 Liverpool NY
281 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
285 Downingtown West PA
288 Southlake Carroll TX
296 Edina MN
301 Wayzata MN
301 Neuqua Valley IL
301 Lyons Township IL
337 Bozeman MT
344 Summit OR
380 Christian Brothers NJ
393 Marietta GA
420 Trinity Prep FL

Notes:

It is worth noting that the South ratings are a wild guess, so I could very well be way off. Also, I took into account additional factors for two boys and two girls teams:

For the Fayetteville-Manlius NY boys, I added in Peter Ryan with a wild guess that he could run with their #3 from their regional race (he was their #1 all year, and his coach seems to have tried to be careful with him over the last few weeks, so without having any real good idea of the situation this seemed like an okay guess). I have no idea if he is even going to run, let alone run well, so he could still change things quite a bit (this puts him as the #88 scorer in the field, with their #1 at 19 and #6 at 128).

For the Christian Brothers NJ boys, I know that my scores for them are quite a bit different than others seem to have them at, so just like I did with the Davis girls I also averaged in their state meet (MOC) races to see how that changed things. Surprisingly, just like with the Davis girls, it didn't push the needle hardly at all.


Top Individuals (194+ ratings):

Ben Petrella, Liverpool NY (team runner)
Casey Clinger, American Fork UT (team runner)
Phillip Rocha, Arcadia CA
Jonathan Davis, Oakwood IL
Alek Parsons, Ogden UT
Paul Roberts, Lyons CO
Brody Smith, Cody WY
Jaret Carpenter, Wayzata MN (team runner)
Austin Tamagno, Brea Olinda CA
Benjamin Veatch, Carmel IN
Micah Mather, Highland Park MN
Jack Yearian, Bellarmine Prep WA
Eduardo Herrera, Madera South CA
Seth Hirsch, Millard West NE
Brodey Hasty, Brentwood TN
Andy Monroe, Crater OR

NXN Girls Projections

So, if you hadn't noticed, I didn't end up posting the All-Time individual performance lists from the regionals after the first week. The Southwest was already probably not going to happen, because it was only the second year at the course, but the South being so muddy prevented me from doing that region either. I may at some point go back and review it for the races during the last weekend, but for now I'm just going to skip it since we would be missing a quarter of the regions anyways.

Instead, here is a post about how the NXN Nationals fields might be looking. Normally, these projections include many races for all the teams (most importantly NXR and each of their State meets, but also including some small weighting for season bests from invitationals if applicable), however as I haven't had time to do that for many teams this year this is almost strictly based on NXR (with a pair of slight exceptions on both sides as noted below).

Girls Teams:

61 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
146 Great Oak CA
192 Pennsbury PA
199 Saratoga Springs NY
258 American Fork UT
271 Davis CA
278 Carmel IN
282 Willmar MN
284 Edina MN
285 Sunset OR
306 Lake Braddock VA
307 Naperville North IL
311 Bozeman MT
326 North Rockland NY
329 Northville MI
329 Kingwood TX
344 Centerville OH
352 Southlake Carroll TX
382 Blacksburg VA
385 La Salle Academy RI
397 Davis UT
441 Xavier Prep AZ

Notes:

It is worth noting that the South ratings are a wild guess, so I could very well be way off. Also, I took into account additional factors for two boys and two girls teams:

For the Sunset OR girls, I thought it would be a safe bet that their usual #4 Kelly Makin would be a little closer to where she was mid-season, as she her injury is now 2 months behind her and hopefully she has been healthy enough to start getting back into it. She wasn't placed where she was mid-season, but MUCH closer to where their #4 was at the regional meet (I placed her at 19:37.6 for NXN-Northwest).

For the Davis UT girls, I thought they ran decently far behind where they were at previous races, and since I have a somewhat decent idea of how their state meet course runs, I took a weighted average of those two performances (weighted 3x towards NXR, 2x towards state). Surprisingly, it ended up not making much difference at all.

Davis CA #1, Fiona O'Keeffe, has been injured for a while now. She barely made it through the state meet in once piece. I'm going to take a wild guess that she isn't running at NXN, and the scores above reflect that. Were she to run what she did at state, Davis would be about 15 points behind Great Oak at #3.



Top Individuals (150+ ratings):

Katie Rainsberger, Air Force Academy CO
Kaitlyn Neal, Fayetteville-Manlius NY (team runner)
Judy Pendergast, Naperville North IL (team runner)
Stephanie Jenks, Unattached IA
Christian Aragon, Billings Senior MT
Kelsey Chmiel, Saratoga Springs NY (team runner)
Cailie Logue, Girard KS
Kate Murphy, Lake Braddock VA (team runner)
Aislinn Devlin, Downingtown West PA
Ella Donaghu, Grant OR
Grace Ping, Cotter MN
Bethany Hasz, Alexandria MN
Emma Benner, Forest Lake MN