Wednesday, December 2, 2015

NXN Girls Projections

So, if you hadn't noticed, I didn't end up posting the All-Time individual performance lists from the regionals after the first week. The Southwest was already probably not going to happen, because it was only the second year at the course, but the South being so muddy prevented me from doing that region either. I may at some point go back and review it for the races during the last weekend, but for now I'm just going to skip it since we would be missing a quarter of the regions anyways.

Instead, here is a post about how the NXN Nationals fields might be looking. Normally, these projections include many races for all the teams (most importantly NXR and each of their State meets, but also including some small weighting for season bests from invitationals if applicable), however as I haven't had time to do that for many teams this year this is almost strictly based on NXR (with a pair of slight exceptions on both sides as noted below).

Girls Teams:

61 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
146 Great Oak CA
192 Pennsbury PA
199 Saratoga Springs NY
258 American Fork UT
271 Davis CA
278 Carmel IN
282 Willmar MN
284 Edina MN
285 Sunset OR
306 Lake Braddock VA
307 Naperville North IL
311 Bozeman MT
326 North Rockland NY
329 Northville MI
329 Kingwood TX
344 Centerville OH
352 Southlake Carroll TX
382 Blacksburg VA
385 La Salle Academy RI
397 Davis UT
441 Xavier Prep AZ


It is worth noting that the South ratings are a wild guess, so I could very well be way off. Also, I took into account additional factors for two boys and two girls teams:

For the Sunset OR girls, I thought it would be a safe bet that their usual #4 Kelly Makin would be a little closer to where she was mid-season, as she her injury is now 2 months behind her and hopefully she has been healthy enough to start getting back into it. She wasn't placed where she was mid-season, but MUCH closer to where their #4 was at the regional meet (I placed her at 19:37.6 for NXN-Northwest).

For the Davis UT girls, I thought they ran decently far behind where they were at previous races, and since I have a somewhat decent idea of how their state meet course runs, I took a weighted average of those two performances (weighted 3x towards NXR, 2x towards state). Surprisingly, it ended up not making much difference at all.

Davis CA #1, Fiona O'Keeffe, has been injured for a while now. She barely made it through the state meet in once piece. I'm going to take a wild guess that she isn't running at NXN, and the scores above reflect that. Were she to run what she did at state, Davis would be about 15 points behind Great Oak at #3.

Top Individuals (150+ ratings):

Katie Rainsberger, Air Force Academy CO
Kaitlyn Neal, Fayetteville-Manlius NY (team runner)
Judy Pendergast, Naperville North IL (team runner)
Stephanie Jenks, Unattached IA
Christian Aragon, Billings Senior MT
Kelsey Chmiel, Saratoga Springs NY (team runner)
Cailie Logue, Girard KS
Kate Murphy, Lake Braddock VA (team runner)
Aislinn Devlin, Downingtown West PA
Ella Donaghu, Grant OR
Grace Ping, Cotter MN
Bethany Hasz, Alexandria MN
Emma Benner, Forest Lake MN

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