Showing posts with label Heartland XC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Heartland XC. Show all posts

Monday, November 18, 2024

Talking with a friend of mine a few weeks ago, I got curious as to how the high school XC scene might be looking these days. I did some quick homework, and this is a simple estimation of how the NXR Regionals so far compare to last year's NXN results. Top 30 individuals and Top 10 teams from the regions so far (HL, NW and MW). I also took a quick look at the Utah State meet and New Jersey MOC, and to what should be no surprise to anyone that follows XC it looks like the usual suspects are still among the top in the nation these days (CBA NJ looks every bit as good as the Coeur d'Alene boys, while Herriman/American Fork look even better and Utah potentially having an At-Large worthy team or two; on the girls side Lone Peak looks outstanding once again).

For the team rankings here, I just did a simple substitution method of placing each runner's NXN projection between actual NXN results from last year so e.g. Philip Cupial from Downers Grove North IL ran an equivalent of 15:47.1 which would have placed him between the #12 and #13 scorers from last year, San Clemente CA's Brett Ephraim and CBA NJ's Conor Clifford, so he would have scored 12.5 points.


Top 10 Boys Teams (AQ in bold; average times are 2023 NXN equivalents):

185.5 - NW#1 Coeur d'Alene ID (16:04.6) -- finished #11 last year
262.5 - MW#1 Downers Grove North IL (16:15.9) -- finished #7 last year
305.5 - MW#2 Rockhurst MO (16:26.4)
314.5 - NW#2 Jesuit OR (16:24.7)
335.5 - NW#4 Crater OR (16:24.2) -- finished #12 last year
340.5 - HL#1 Spring Hill KS (16:30.5)
355.5 - NW#3 Rocky Mountain ID (16:31.0)
370.5 - MW#3 Plainsfield North IL (16:33.4) -- finished #15 last year
385.5 - NW#5 Helena MT (16:34.5)
408.5 - HL#2 Sioux Falls Lincoln SD (16:37.5)


Top 10 Girls Teams (AQ in bold; average times are 2023 NXN equivalents):

316.5 - HL#1 Wayzata MN (19:19.5) -- finished #21 last year
366.5 - NW#1 Rocky Mountain ID (19:28.0)
382.5 - MW#4 Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran IN (19:31.1)
410.5 - MW#1 Downers Grove North IL (19:37.0) -- finished #16 last year
418.5 - MW#2 Romeo MI (19:37.9)
423.5 - MW#5 Prospect IL (19:40.6) -- finished #14 last year
426.5 - NW#2 Lincoln OR (19:44.6) -- finished #20 last year
430.5 - MW#3 Carmel IN (19:38.8)
430.5 - HL#2 Johnston IA (19:41.3)
463.5 - MW#6 Barrington IL (19:43.8)


Top 30 Boys Individuals (AQ in bold; times are 2023 NXN equivalents):

15:26.0 - Tayvon KITCHEN, 12, Oregon Distance (NW #1) -- ran 15:58.5 last year
15:26.7 - Ben Crane, 12, Winnetka Athletic Club IL (MW #1)
15:28.1 - Sam Quagliaroli, 12, Fishers Distance IN (MW #2)
15:28.1 - Jase BURTON, 12, Ohana XC (NW #2)
15:29.9 - Owen POWELL, 12, Midlake Herons (NW #3)
15:30.0 - Kade BROWNELL, 12, Mt. Spokane Yetis (NW #4)
15:31.0 - Nate STADTLANDER, 12, Warrior XC (NW #5)
15:31.2 - Hayden BOAZ, 12, Storm Over Bend (NW #6)
15:32.2 - Cooper BOYLE, 12, Tahoma XCRC (NW #7)
15:33.4 - Noah Bontrager, 11, Unattached Indiana (MW #3)
15:33.9 - Landon Kimmel, 11, Tipp XC OH (MW #4)
15:34.1 - Vincent RECUPERO, 12, Green Lake Harriers (NW #8)
15:34.3 - Juan GONZALEZ, 12, Fremont Track Club (HL #1) -- ran 15:50.1 last year
15:35.2 - Manny PUTZ, 12, Team Sty-U (HL #2) -- ran 15:23.1 last year
15:35.8 - Max CERVI-SKINNER, 12, CDA Distance (NW #9) -- ran 16:02.2 last year
15:36.1 - Robert MECHURA, 12, Roseville Running Club (HL #3) -- ran 15:36.1 last year
15:38.6 - TJ Hansen, 12, Unattached Michigan (MW #5) -- ran 15:27.8 last year
15:44.3 - Grady LENN, 11, Unattached (HL #4)
15:44.9 - Ethan OLDS, 12, Stevens Point Distance Crew (HL #5) -- ran 16:20.3 last year
15:44.9 - Henry Acorn, 12, Rock Running Club MO (MW #6)
15:45.3 - Sawyer MARQUIS, 12, Unat-Marquis-Sawyer (NW #10)
15:47.1 - Philip Cupial, 11, Downers North XC Club IL (MW #7) -- ran 16:10.9 last year
15:47.5 - Ezra TEEPLES, 12, Braves Soul (NW #11)
15:47.6 - Carson Driemeier, 11, Festus XC Club MO (MW #8)
15:48.7 - Zackery CERVI-SKINNER, 12, CDA Distance (NW #12) -- ran 16:51.9 last year
15:49.5 - Jackson Nolan, 12, West Side Panthers IN (MW #9)
15:51.6 - Grant Schroder, 12, Downers North XC Club IL (MW #10) -- ran 16:02.8 last year
15:52.2 - Kian COMPTON, 10, Yakima Harriers (NW #13)
15:52.8 - Jack SHEESLEY, 12, Boise XC (NW #14)
15:54.0 - Kamari Ronfeldt, 10, A2 Track Club MI (MW #11)


Top 30 Girls Individuals (AQ in bold; times are 2023 NXN equivalents):

17:44.4 - Marissa FEREBEE, 11, Pella XC Windmills (HL #1)
17:48.7 - Chloe HUYLER, 12, Pacer Project (NW #1) -- ran 18:25.1 last year
17:50.8 - Victoria Garces, 12, Unattached Michigan (MW #1)
17:53.8 - Sophia RODRIGUEZ, 10, Midlake Herons (NW #2)
17:54.3 - Ruby IHMELS, 10, BisPat Harriers (HL #2)
17:55.4 - Mia Sirois, 10, Dark Horse Distance Project I (MW #2)
18:02.8 - Helen Sachs, 12, SHORE Track Club MI (MW #3)
18:04.3 - Emily WISNIEWSKI, 12, Crescent Valley Running Club (NW #3) -- ran 17:37.4 last year
18:05.1 - Ryin MILLER, 11, NOTO Running (HL #3)
18:09.2 - Mallory Weller, 11, Cadet Distance Project IN (MW #4)
18:10.2 - Katelyn RUPE, 12, Unattached (HL #4) -- ran 18:17.8 last year
18:10.8 - Daniela Scheffler, 12, Lake OH (MW #5)
18:11.0 - Victoria RODRIGUEZ, 12, Midlake Herons (NW #4)
18:13.9 - Elektra HIGGINS, 12, Unat-Higgins-Elektra (NW #5)
18:17.8 - Libby CASTELLI, 12, Unattached (HL #5) -- ran 19:29.6 last year
18:18.2 - Brooke Chapman, 11, Olentangy Orange XC OH (MW #6)
18:19.1 - Libby Dowty, 11, Bradford IN (MW #7) -- ran 17:56.9 last year
18:22.3 - Nelida DALGAS, 11, Capital City (NW #6)
18:23.4 - Brianna REILLY, 7, Harrisburg Tiger Elite (HL #6)
18:26.4 - Natasza Dudek, 9, Purple TC MI (MW #8)
18:27.0 - Hannah GENRICH, 8, Harrisburg Tiger Elite (HL #7)
18:27.2 - Marisa Heil, 12, Storm OH (MW #9)
18:28.1 - Katherine Foltz, 11, Unattached Illinois (MW #10)
18:29.9 - Norah HUSHAGEN, 12, Forest Lake XC Club (HL #8) -- ran 18:03.7 last year
18:32.2 - Maggie MADSEN, 10, Thunderbirds (NW #7)
18:32.6 - Kylah MADARIAGA, 12, Wenatchee XC (NW #8)
18:33.3 - Karlin Janowski, 9, KROY IL (MW #11)
18:33.9 - Maddie GULLICKSON, 11, Wayzata XC Club (HL #9)
18:38.1 - Paisley TAYLOR, 12, Warrior XC (NW #9)
18:38.4 - Emma Hoffman, 11, Unattached Michigan (MW #12)
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Friday, July 10, 2020

NXN History - Top Programs and Regions

I haven't updated this one in a few years, so I think it's about time to take another look at it.

Scores of the top programs are adjusted averages, where I capped the points at 380 and include any non-qualifying team as scoring 380 points. This is roughly the average score of the #18 team (375 for boys and 392 for girls) and is a way to compare teams that don't qualify as often (e.g. good programs from strong regions), but still favor teams that consistently qualify and place well.

note: I'm also referring to Top-8 instead of Top-10 or Top-Half (11) in this post because that is the point of the greatest scoring differential which makes it the cleanest and most consistent cut-off between teams that are competitive with the Podium Teams and teams that aren't. I also considered using Top-18 instead of Top-15 for the third point of consideration because there are 18 AQ teams every year, but I ended up sticking with Top-15 because it is closer to 330 points (which in a field of 22 teams is generally around the point where teams are still competitive with the top half of the field) and because it gives a clearer definition of regions that aren't struggling to be competitive with the field as a whole -- only having 4 teams per year not make the cut isn't as meaningful when pointing to differences between most of the regions, which are fairly dominated by 2-3 regions on either side which does make it similar to the Podium comparison but not as completely a "These teams are competitive with the majority of the national field" comparison.

Top-10 Boys Programs from 2007-2019: (# Trips, Podium finishes, Top-8 and Top-15 finishes)
  1. 255.15 American Fork UT (9 trips: 3/9/9)
  2. 268.69 North Central WA (8 trips: 3/8/8)
  3. 269.54 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (12 trips: 3/5/8)
  4. 270.85 Christian Brothers Academy NJ (10 trips: 2/6/7)
  5. 294.69 Great Oak CA (5 trips: 3/5/5)
  6. 309.15 The Woodlands TX (10 trips: 1/5/6)
  7. 311.62 Arcadia CA (5 trips: 2/3/4)
  8. 318.08 Dana Hills CA (8 trips: 1/4/5)
  9. 318.69 York IL (7 trips: 1/2/7)
  10. 319.15 Davis UT (6 trips: 1/3/5)
honorable mention: Southlake Carroll TX, Wayzata MN, Loudoun Valley VA also average under 330

Top-10 Girls Programs from 2007-2019: (# Trips, Podium finishes, Top-8 and Top-15 finishes)
  1. 89.00 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (13 trips: 11/13/13)
  2. 214.92 Saratoga Springs NY (12 trips: 5/9/12)
  3. 288.38 Great Oak CA (9 trips: 3/6/8)
  4. 288.38 Carmel IN (7 trips: 2/7/7)
  5. 292.46 Fort Collins CO (7 trips: 1/7/7)
  6. 299.46 Saugus CA (7 trips: 3/4/6)
  7. 306.46 Naperville North IL (8 trips: 2/3/8)
  8. 312.46 Wayzata MN (5 trips: 2/5/5)
  9. 323.85 Tatnall DE (6 trips: 2/4/5)
  10. 336.85 Jesuit OR (7 trips: 0/1/7)
honorable mention: Southlake Carroll TX, Davis CA, Bozeman MT, Summit OR, Davis UT also average under 350

Average Region Score - Boys Auto-Qualifiers: (and # Podium/Top-8/Top-15 finishes for ALL teams)
  1. 215.58 Southwest (9 Podium Teams, 23 Top-8 and 32 Top-15 out of 35)
    ----------------------------------------------
  2. 251.46 California (7 Podium Teams, 17 Top-8 and 29 Top-15 out of 42)
  3. 262.42 Midwest (4 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 30 Top-15 out of 35)
  4. 272.96 Northwest (6 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 20 Top-15 out of 29)
  5. 280.73 Northeast (2 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 19 Top-15 out of 31)
  6. 286.31 New York (3 Podium Teams, 8 Top-8 and 20 Top-15 out of 28)
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  7. 325.77 South (3 Podium Teams, 9 Top-8 and 17 Top-15 out of 31)
  8. 328.35 Southeast (4 Podium Teams, 5 Top-8 and 14 Top-15 out of 27)
  9. 335.46 Heartland (1 Podium Team, 3 Top-8 and 14 Top-15 out of 28)
There has developed 3 mostly distinct tiers of regions on the boys side; the Southwest teams almost always finish in the Top-15 and almost 2/3 finish in the Top-8 which means that as a region the SW clearly stands out above the rest; about 2/3 of the teams from the second tier finish in the Top-15 and a healthy amount finish in the Top-8; the teams in the third tier only finish in the Top-15 about half of the time and although the South is about as good at finishing in the Top-8 as the second tier regions a lot more of their teams are finishing pretty far back.

Average Region Score - Girls Auto-Qualifiers: (and # Podium/Top-8/Top-15 finishes for ALL teams)
  1. 150.00 New York (16 Podium Teams, 28 Top-8 and 38 Top-15 out of 39)
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  2. 251.69 California (8 Podium Teams, 14 Top-8 and 29 Top-15 out of 37)
  3. 254.19 Southwest (4 Podium Teams, 20 Top-8 and 30 Top-15 out of 34)
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  4. 274.19 Midwest (4 Podium Teams, 13 Top-8 and 24 Top-15 out of 32)
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  5. 313.04 Northwest (2 Podium Teams, 7 Top-8 and 22 Top-15 out of 30)
  6. 320.63 Heartland (2 Podium Teams, 6 Top-8 and 16 Top-15 out of 27)
  7. 332.54 Southeast (2 Podium Teams, 7 Top-8 and 16 Top-15 out of 30)
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  8. 376.58 Northeast (0 Podium Teams, 5 Top-8 and 11 Top-15 out of 29)
  9. 382.72 South (1 Podium Team, 4 Top-8 and 9 Top-15 out of 28)
There has developed 4 somewhat murky tiers of regions on the girls side; the New York teams almost always finish in the Top-15, almost 3/4 of their teams finish in the Top-8 and almost half finish on the podium and it's pretty rare that the top NY team doesn't end up the national champion; the second tier regions (CA and SW) have more than 2/3 of their teams finish in the Top-15 and more than 1/3 of their teams finish in the Top-8; the Midwest is between tiers (similar rate of podium finishes as the SW but almost half that of their Top-8 finishes and not nearly as strong in Top-15 finishes, and similar Top-8 finishes as California but only half of their podium finishes), and same with the Northwest in terms of Top-15 finishes but without the podium or even Top-8 finishes which puts the NW in the third tier. The third tier teams have more than half of their teams finish in the Top-15 and about a quarter finish in the Top-8; the fourth tier (Northeast and South) only have about 1/3 of their teams finish in the Top-15 and the Northeast and South combine to have more than half of the #19-22 finishes (13 for the Northeast and 14 for the South, with the only other region that has more than 5 such teams is the Southeast with 9).

Average Region Score - Boys Top-2 Finishers: (and # of At-Large bids received)
  1. 208.88 Southwest (9 At-Large Invites)
  2. 231.58 California (16 At-Large Invites)
  3. 246.88 Midwest (9 At-Large Invites)
  4. 270.73 Northwest (3 At-Large Invites)
  5. 280.73 Northeast (5 At-Large Invites)
  6. 284.00 New York (2 At-Large Invites)
  7. 318.58 South (5 At-Large Invites)
  8. 328.35 Southeast (1 At-Large Invite)
  9. 335.46 Heartland (2 At-Large Invites)

Average Region Score - Girls Top-2 Finishers: (and # of At-Large bids received)
  1. 149.19 New York (13 At-Large Invites)
  2. 240.96 California (11 At-Large Invites)
  3. 242.62 Southwest (8 At-Large Invites)
  4. 267.73 Midwest (6 At-Large Invites)
  5. 306.19 Northwest (4 At-Large Invites)
  6. 320.63 Heartland (0 At-Large Invites)
  7. 323.88 Southeast (4 At-Large Invites)
  8. 369.12 Northeast (3 At-Large Invites)
  9. 380.00 South (3 At-Large Invites)

Additionally, here's a comparison of the % of teams invited that have finished in the Top-3/8/15 (can be derived from the AQ Regional Ranking list):

Boys Regions:
  1. Southwest (25.7%, 65.7%, 91.4%)
  2. Midwest (11.4%, 37.1%, 85.7%)
  3. New York (10.7%, 28.6%, 71.4%)
  4. Northwest (20.7%, 44.8%, 69.0%)
  5. California (16.7%, 40.5%, 69.0%)
  6. Northeast (06.5%, 41.9%, 61.3%)
  7. South (09.7%, 29.0%, 54.8%)
  8. Southeast (14.8%, 18.5%, 51.9%)
  9. Heartland (03.6%, 10.7%, 50.0%)

Girls Regions:
  1. New York (41.0%, 71.8%, 97.4%)
  2. Southwest (11.8%, 58.8%, 88.2%)
  3. California (21.6%, 37.8%, 78.4%)
  4. Midwest (12.5%, 40.6%, 75.0%)
  5. Northwest (06.7%, 23.3%, 73.3%)
  6. Heartland (07.4%, 22.2%, 59.3%)
  7. Southeast (06.7%, 23.3%, 53.3%)
  8. Northeast (00.0%, 17.2%, 37.9%)
  9. South (03.6%, 14.3%, 32.1%)

And, finally, one last comparison: the % of teams from each region (same as above) but only 2013+ for girls and 2012+ for boys, because that's about the time that the depth of the national field become close to what it is today (possibly more on that in a later post).

Boys Regions: (AQ Average, Top-2 Average, # Teams: Podium, Top-8, Top-15)
  1. Southwest (210.31, 199.44, 24 teams: 6, 15, 22 or 25.0%, 62.5% and 91.7%)
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  2. California (241.31, 221.06, 24 teams: 6, 12, 18 or 25.0%, 50.0% and 75.0%)
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  3. Midwest (276.31, 260.81, 21 teams: 0, 7, 16 or 0%, 33.3% and 76.2%)
  4. Southeast (269.88, 269.88, 17 teams: 4, 5, 14 or 23.5%, 29.4% and 82.4%)
  5. New York (285.06, 281.31, 18 teams: 2, 6, 13 or 11.1%, 33.3% and 72.2%)
  6. Northwest (286.19, 282.56, 19 teams: 4, 7, 10 or 21.1%, 36.8% and 52.6%)
  7. Northeast (290.94, 290.94, 17 teams: 1, 7, 10 or 5.9%, 41.2% and 58.8%)
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  8. Heartland (339.31, 339.31, 18 teams: 1, 2, 9 or 5.6%, 11.1% and 50.0%)
  9. South (371.75, 360.06, 18 teams: 0, 3, 8 or 0%, 16.7% and 44.4%)
On the boys side, aside from the Southwest, there isn't really any strong difference between the regions as a whole ... California's front-end talent is still very strong with many podium and Top-8 finishes but not compared to the SW in terms of Top-8 and Top-15 kind of puts the region between the SW and the next tier of teams; a separation in Tier 2 between the SE/MW/NY and NE/NW in terms of Top-15 finishes but not Top-3 (where SE and NW both have as many as the other regions in that tier and below combined) or Top-8 (where they are all very similar); the Heartland and South are still comparatively struggling, though, even though the back end of Tier 2 is close to them in terms of Top-15 finishes.

Girls Regions: (AQ Average, Top-2 Average, # Teams: Podium, Top-8, Top-15)
  1. New York (184.36, 184.36, 18 teams: 6, 10, 17 or 33.3%, 55.6% and 94.4%)
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  2. California (227.93, 221.86, 19 teams: 5, 10, 17 or 26.3%, 52.6% and 89.5%)
  3. Southwest (255.43, 233.93, 21 teams: 3, 13, 18 or 14.3%, 61.9% and 85.7%)
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  4. Midwest (257.71, 250.29, 18 teams: 3, 7, 15 or 16.7%, 38.9% and 83.3%)
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  5. Northwest (297.57, 284.86, 18 teams: 2, 6, 13 or 11.1%, 33.3% and 72.2%)
  6. Heartland (293.20, 293.20, 15 teams: 2, 5, 10 or 13.3%, 33.3% and 66.7%)
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  7. Northeast (370.86, 364.00, 16 teams: 0, 2, 4 or 0%, 12.5% and 25.0%)
  8. Southeast (375.29, 371.93, 15 teams: 0, 1, 5 or 0%, 6.7% and 33.3%)
  9. South (375.69, 373.00, 14 teams: 0, 2, 6 or 0%, 14.3% and 42.9%)

... as you can see, the disparity even on the girls side is nowhere near where it has been overall, particularly when looking beyond average score and looking at the distribution of podium Top-8/15 finishes. The Southwest has overtaken New York in terms of getting Top-8 finishes on the girls side, and California has essentially matched New York as well (although NY or more specifically Fayetteville-Manlius, obviously, is still at the top when it comes to Championships and Podium finishes -- this is more about NY #2/3/4 teams no longer being podium or even top-8 teams every single year: in the last 7 years aside from FM, NY has sent 11 girls teams and ended up with 3 Top-8 finishes including Saratoga's win last year compared to 6 finishes outside the top half of the field ... which is much different from 2007-2012 when there were 3-4 NY girls teams in the top half of the field every single year, or the 2004-2006 pre-Regional years when there may have been as many capable of doing so aside from maybe 2005). The Heartland and Northwest are also essentially on par with the Midwest now in terms of podium and Top-8 finishes (though the Heartland has done so with only 1 At-Large team vs. 4 each from the MW and NW, and the HL still a bit further back in terms of depth as evidenced by total Top-15 finishes). Meanwhile, the Southeast and South have nearly traded places. A clear grouping of regions though with Tier 1 being New York, California and the Southwest; Tier 2 being Midwest, Northeast and Heartland; Tier 3 being South, Southeast and Northeast.

(also, another way to look at it: on average, the SW has 2 teams among the top 8 in both the boys and girls races, CA has 1.5 in both as does the NY girls, while the NY boys and MW/NW boys and girls average 1 per year as does the NE boys, the HL and South on both sides average 0.5 per year as does the SE boys, while the Southeast girls average 0 ... which has some implications for potential At-Large teams: Southeast girls will typically need to show during the season just how great they are by beating teams from other regions, while #3/4 teams from the SW on both sides will have an easier time qualifying if they merely finish close to the #2 team at NXR -- IF it appears to be an "average" year for the SW and SE AQ teams in this example, because every year is different and it could be that the top SE girls look much stronger than usual and so finishing close to them will still put a team in strong consideration, or the SW teams much weaker than usual which lessens the value of finishing close to them without much else of a resume).

In general, the nation as a whole has been much stronger and MUCH more balanced from 2013-2019 on the girls side and 2012-2019 on the boys side... aside from the Fayetteville-Manlius girls and the Southwest boys continuing to more or less dominate the rest.
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Saturday, December 7, 2019

Girls NXN Nationals Results/Ratings

Best girls individual field ever led to what might have been the best race ever? I thought the 2013 NXN race between Alexa Efraimson, Elise Cranny and Sarah Baxter battle was incredible and be hard to overtake, but with the tight finish today I think this one was even better. Katelynn Tuohy found her match in Sydney Thorvaldson and Taylor Ewert, but held on despite late charges as all three finished within less than a second. I don't know if that is the biggest story, or if the Saratoga Springs NY girls huge performance should take the cake today. Saratoga won their first team title since the very first NTN/NXN race in 2004, and did so by a good margin against a tremendous field.

As the girls race ran second today, the course was chewed up and notably more muddy than in the boys race as rain continued to come down.

Ratings estimate: 200.0 = 15:46

(edit: added estimated equivalent 3200m times for better comparison)

Girls Teams:
  1. 78 - KINETIC - 92:30.1 - NXR New York Runner-up - 148.0
  2. 160 - CENTRAL OREGON - 94:09.2 - NXR Northwest Champion - 141.7
  3. 171 - NIWOT - 94:30.9 - NXR Southwest Third Place - 140.3
  4. 188 - LONE PEAK - 95:10.2 - NXR Southwest Champion - 137.8
  5. 201 - CLOVIS - 94:56.4 - California D1 Champion - 138.7
  6. 204 - NORTH SPOKANE - 95:28.9 - NXR Northwest Runner-up - 136.6
  7. 206 - MANLIUS - 94:37.9 - NXR New York Champion - 139.9
  8. 242 - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 96:10.1 - NXR Southwest Runner-up - 134.0
  9. 266 - TEMECULA - 96:39.2 - California D1 Runner-up - 132.2
  10. 310 - PURCELLVILLE - 97:16.4 - NXR Southeast Champion - 129.8
  11. 320 - PORTLAND - 97:26.4 - NXR Northwest Third Place - 129.2
  12. 323 - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 97:06.7 - NXR Midwest Champion - 130.4
  13. 327 - BEAVERCREEK - 96:57.7 - NXR Midwest Runner-up - 131.0
  14. 333 - EDINA - 97:25.3 - NXR Heartland Champion - 129.3
  15. 353 - FT. LAUDERDALE - 98:12.1 - NXR Southeast Runner-up - 126.3
  16. 354 - MUSKEGO - 97:58.0 - NXR Heartland Runner-up - 127.2
  17. 358 - NEWBURY PARK - 97:58.2 - California D2 Champion - 127.2
  18. 359 - FOREST PARK - 97:25.0 - NXR Northwest Fourth Place - 129.3
  19. 384 - HUNTERDON - 98:34.7 - NXR Northeast Champion - 124.9
  20. 390 - RIDGEWOOD - 98:19.8 - NXR Northeast Runner-up - 125.8
  21. 426 - CARROLL - 98:58.4 - NXR South Runner-up - 123.4
  22. 483 - PROSPER - 99:58.0 - NXR South Champion - 119.6

Girls Individuals:
  1. 170.7 - 17:18.4 - KATELYN TUOHY - NEW YORK - 9:52
  2. 170.5 - 17:19.1 - TAYLOR EWERT - BEAVERCREEK - 9:53
  3. 170.4 - 17:19.4 - SYDNEY THORVALDSON - NORTHWEST - 9:53
  4. 167.5 - 17:28.4 - CLAIRE WALTERS - MANLIUS - 9:58
  5. 165.1 - 17:35.9 - MARLEE STARLIPER - NORTHEAST - 10:02
  6. 165.0 - 17:36.4 - CARLIE DOROSTKAR - CALIFORNIA - 10:03
  7. 164.3 - 17:38.6 - BROOKE RAUBER - NEW YORK - 10:04
  8. 163.7 - 17:40.5 - CHARLOTTE BEDNAR - NORTHEAST - 10:05
  9. 162.7 - 17:43.7 - KATE PETERS - FOREST PARK - 10:07
  10. 160.6 - 17:50.2 - FIFI MAX - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:11
  11. 160.3 - 17:51.3 - ERIN STRZELECKI - MIDWEST - 10:11
  12. 158.7 - 17:56.2 - CORIE SMITH - CLOVIS - 10:14
  13. 158.6 - 17:56.5 - JENNA SCHULZ - NEW YORK - 10:14
  14. 158.0 - 17:58.3 - ELLA KURTO - KINETIC - 10:15
  15. 157.9 - 17:58.7 - SAMREE DISHON - NIWOT - 10:15
  16. 157.9 - 17:58.8 - ANNALYSSA CRAIN - MIDWEST - 10:15
  17. 157.0 - 18:01.5 - TATUM DAVID - MIDWEST - 10:17
  18. 156.7 - 18:02.4 - JULIA DAVID-SMITH - NORTHWEST - 10:17
  19. 156.7 - 18:02.6 - SARAH CONNELLY - NEW YORK - 10:18
  20. 156.1 - 18:04.4 - KELSEY HARRINGTON - SOUTHEAST - 10:19
  21. 155.3 - 18:07.0 - MEGHAN FORD - HEARTLAND - 10:20
  22. 155.0 - 18:07.9 - MATTIE GEDDES - NORTHWEST - 10:21
  23. 154.7 - 18:08.8 - BRYNN BROWN - SOUTH - 10:21
  24. 154.6 - 18:09.1 - SASHA NEGLIA - SOUTHEAST - 10:21
  25. 152.1 - 18:16.9 - SAMANTHA BLAIR - SOUTHWEST - 10:26
  26. 152.1 - 18:17.2 - ELIZA ARRINGTON - LONE PEAK - 10:26
  27. 151.9 - 18:17.8 - LAUREN PING - SOUTHWEST - 10:26
  28. 151.8 - 18:18.1 - ALEX KLOS - CALIFORNIA - 10:26
  29. 151.3 - 18:19.5 - ANA WEAVER - HEARTLAND - 10:27
  30. 150.2 - 18:23.0 - KORA MALECEK - HEARTLAND - 10:29
  31. 149.8 - 18:24.2 - RILEY STEWART - SOUTHWEST - 10:30
  32. 149.7 - 18:24.6 - LEA HATCHER - SOUTHEAST - 10:30
  33. 149.6 - 18:24.9 - SAVANNAH SCRIVEN - CALIFORNIA - 10:30
  34. 149.5 - 18:25.2 - MARIE HOSTETLER - HEARTLAND - 10:30
  35. 149.2 - 18:26.1 - McKINLEY WHEELER - KINETIC - 10:31
  36. 149.0 - 18:26.8 - MAGGIE GAMBOA - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 10:31
  37. 148.6 - 18:28.0 - COLLEEN STEGMANN - SOUTH - 10:32
  38. 148.6 - 18:28.0 - MACKENZIE HART - KINETIC - 10:32
  39. 148.6 - 18:28.2 - SHERIDAN WHEELER - KINETIC - 10:32
  40. 147.2 - 18:32.6 - AVERY CLOVER - SOUTH - 10:35
  41. 147.1 - 18:32.9 - ZOE DUFFUS - MIDWEST - 10:35
  42. 146.4 - 18:34.9 - TEAGHAN KNOX - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:36
  43. 146.3 - 18:35.2 - JENNA MULHERN - NORTHEAST - 10:36
  44. 145.9 - 18:36.6 - CHLOE GONZALEZ - HUNTERDON - 10:37
  45. 144.3 - 18:41.7 - MEG MADISON - NORTHEAST - 10:40
  46. 144.0 - 18:42.7 - TSION YARED - FT. LAUDERDALE - 10:40
  47. 143.7 - 18:43.4 - LANIE SZUCH - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 10:41
  48. 143.5 - 18:44.2 - ATHENA YOUNG - SOUTHEAST - 10:41
  49. 143.4 - 18:44.4 - ERINN HILL - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:41
  50. 143.1 - 18:45.3 - KATELYNNE HART - MIDWEST - 10:42
  51. 143.1 - 18:45.4 - ANNA FENSKE - HEARTLAND - 10:42
  52. 142.6 - 18:47.0 - PHOEBE WHITE - MANLIUS - 10:43
  53. 142.1 - 18:48.5 - REAGAN GARDNER - LONE PEAK - 10:44
  54. 142.1 - 18:48.7 - SYDNEY SUNDGREN - CLOVIS - 10:44
  55. 142.1 - 18:48.7 - TAYLOR WHITFIELD - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 10:44
  56. 141.9 - 18:49.1 - EVA JESS - SOUTH - 10:44
  57. 141.8 - 18:49.5 - KELLI GAFFNEY - TEMECULA - 10:44
  58. 141.7 - 18:49.7 - AVA GORDON - PURCELLVILLE - 10:44
  59. 141.5 - 18:50.6 - SAVANNAH ROARK - BEAVERCREEK - 10:45
  60. 141.1 - 18:51.6 - LUCCA FULKERSON - NIWOT - 10:46
  61. 141.1 - 18:51.7 - TAYLOR JAMES - NIWOT - 10:46
  62. 141.1 - 18:51.8 - KYLIE HARTNETT - NORTHWEST - 10:46
  63. 140.9 - 18:52.5 - ALLIE JANKE - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:46
  64. 140.7 - 18:52.9 - REESE FAHYS - NORTHEAST - 10:46
  65. 140.7 - 18:53.1 - HARPER MCCLAIN - CALIFORNIA - 10:46
  66. 140.1 - 18:55.0 - HANNAH KAERCHER - MANLIUS - 10:48
  67. 140.0 - 18:55.1 - MARIE TAYLOR - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:48
  68. 139.9 - 18:55.4 - AMELU RUFF - NORTH SPOKANE - 10:48
  69. 139.7 - 18:56.2 - CAMRYN WENNERSTEN - RIDGEWOOD - 10:48
  70. 139.4 - 18:57.0 - RILEY CHAMBERLAIN - CALIFORNIA - 10:49
  71. 139.1 - 18:58.0 - CHLOE FOERSTER - PORTLAND - 10:49
  72. 138.8 - 18:58.9 - JASPER FIEVET - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:50
  73. 138.8 - 18:59.1 - JODIE PIERCE - BEAVERCREEK - 10:50
  74. 138.4 - 19:00.2 - KATE SPERKA - MUSKEGO - 10:50
  75. 138.2 - 19:00.8 - HANNAH MINIUTTI - SOUTHEAST - 10:51
  76. 138.0 - 19:01.5 - MARY VELNER - EDINA - 10:51
  77. 137.8 - 19:02.0 - HALEIGH MORALES - NEW YORK - 10:52
  78. 137.4 - 19:03.4 - GRACE HUTCHISON - CLOVIS - 10:52
  79. 137.1 - 19:04.2 - MAGGIE WAGNER - EDINA - 10:53
  80. 136.7 - 19:05.7 - CAMERON MCCONNELL - SOUTHWEST - 10:54
  81. 135.7 - 19:08.9 - AUBRIE NEX - TEMECULA - 10:55
  82. 135.5 - 19:09.5 - EMILY BUSH - KINETIC - 10:56
  83. 135.3 - 19:10.1 - AUBREY O'CONNELL - PROSPER - 10:56
  84. 135.2 - 19:10.2 - HAILEY GOLMON - NEWBURY PARK - 10:56
  85. 134.9 - 19:11.2 - SAM MCDONNELL - NEWBURY PARK - 10:57
  86. 134.9 - 19:11.3 - KRIANNE MCBRIDE - SOUTH - 10:57
  87. 134.6 - 19:12.2 - CAROLINE MENDYK - CLOVIS - 10:57
  88. 134.5 - 19:12.5 - CARLEE HANSEN - SOUTHWEST - 10:58
  89. 134.0 - 19:14.2 - ELIZA MASON - LONE PEAK - 10:58
  90. 133.5 - 19:15.6 - BARRETT JUSTEMA - CENTRAL OREGON - 10:59
  91. 133.4 - 19:16.0 - BROOKE WILSON - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 10:59
  92. 133.2 - 19:16.6 - MAYA BELEZNAY - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:00
  93. 132.5 - 19:18.7 - BRITTANY HELM - MUSKEGO - 11:01
  94. 132.1 - 19:20.0 - KENZIE MELDRUM - LONE PEAK - 11:02
  95. 132.1 - 19:20.1 - RICKY FETTEROLF - PURCELLVILLE - 11:02
  96. 132.1 - 19:20.2 - EVA KLINGBEIL - NIWOT - 11:02
  97. 131.8 - 19:21.1 - MIA KANE - FOREST PARK - 11:02
  98. 131.2 - 19:23.0 - ELISE ABBE - PURCELLVILLE - 11:03
  99. 131.2 - 19:23.1 - SAGE BROOKS - NORTHWEST - 11:04
  100. 130.6 - 19:24.8 - MAGDALYN HOFFMAN - HUNTERDON - 11:05
  101. 130.5 - 19:25.0 - MOLLY GRANT - PORTLAND - 11:05
  102. 130.2 - 19:26.1 - AISHLING FABIAN - TEMECULA - 11:05
  103. 130.1 - 19:26.3 - DEBBIE LUCCHETTI - MANLIUS - 11:05
  104. 129.9 - 19:27.1 - ALEXIS KEBBE - PORTLAND - 11:06
  105. 129.9 - 19:27.1 - HEIDI NIELSON - SOUTH - 11:06
  106. 129.6 - 19:27.9 - RACHEL HELM - MUSKEGO - 11:06
  107. 129.4 - 19:28.7 - AMELIA PHILOFSKY - NIWOT - 11:07
  108. 129.3 - 19:28.9 - JOELLE MCDONALD - NIWOT - 11:07
  109. 129.2 - 19:29.2 - JENNA HOLLAND - CARROLL - 11:07
  110. 129.1 - 19:29.6 - MAGGIE WILLIAMS - CENTRAL OREGON - 11:07
  111. 129.0 - 19:29.8 - MAGGIE BENNETT - PORTLAND - 11:07
  112. 128.9 - 19:30.2 - LUCY JENKS - NORTHEAST - 11:08
  113. 128.9 - 19:30.3 - MONET WINGER - LONE PEAK - 11:08
  114. 128.8 - 19:30.4 - EMILY FAULHABER - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:08
  115. 128.6 - 19:31.1 - LAUREN COSSACK - EDINA - 11:08
  116. 128.2 - 19:32.4 - KAITLYNN WOLFE - SOUTHEAST - 11:09
  117. 128.2 - 19:32.5 - FIONA HAWKINS - NEWBURY PARK - 11:09
  118. 128.1 - 19:32.6 - AUDREY MENDRYS - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:09
  119. 127.3 - 19:35.3 - KATHERINE MCELANEY - CARROLL - 11:11
  120. 127.2 - 19:35.7 - OLIVIA SHATTUCK - RIDGEWOOD - 11:11
  121. 126.9 - 19:36.6 - AUDREY DANG - TEMECULA - 11:11
  122. 126.6 - 19:37.4 - SADIE GONZALES - PROSPER - 11:12
  123. 126.4 - 19:38.1 - ARIANNA GRIFITHS - TEMECULA - 11:12
  124. 126.0 - 19:39.3 - ISABELLA PROSCENO - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:13
  125. 125.6 - 19:40.7 - CAMPBELL PETERSEN - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:14
  126. 125.6 - 19:40.7 - MOLLY MORTON - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:14
  127. 125.4 - 19:41.2 - SCARLET FETTEROLF - PURCELLVILLE - 11:14
  128. 125.3 - 19:41.7 - KAYLIE COX - CARROLL - 11:14
  129. 125.3 - 19:41.7 - ANNAMARIE TRETOLA - RIDGEWOOD - 11:14
  130. 124.9 - 19:42.7 - ASHLEY JONES - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:15
  131. 124.7 - 19:43.4 - CATHERINE MONGAN - KINETIC - 11:15
  132. 124.6 - 19:43.9 - ISABEL HOMSI - FOREST PARK - 11:15
  133. 124.4 - 19:44.5 - ADDISON SCHMIDT - HUNTERDON - 11:16
  134. 124.3 - 19:44.7 - MAHDERE YARED - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:16
  135. 124.0 - 19:45.6 - MACY IYER - EDINA - 11:16
  136. 123.9 - 19:45.9 - KATE DONALDSON - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:17
  137. 122.1 - 19:51.8 - RILEY CASH - FOREST PARK - 11:20
  138. 121.7 - 19:52.8 - MADDIE SHULTS - NIWOT - 11:21
  139. 121.4 - 19:53.8 - STELLA SKOVBORG - CENTRAL OREGON - 11:21
  140. 121.2 - 19:54.6 - TATUM FOREMAN - CARROLL - 11:22
  141. 121.0 - 19:55.0 - SOPHIE GOLOBITSH - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:22
  142. 120.8 - 19:55.6 - CLAIRE HAMLET - RIDGEWOOD - 11:22
  143. 120.8 - 19:55.9 - MIA JAUREGUI - CLOVIS - 11:22
  144. 120.1 - 19:57.8 - McKAYLA FELTON - MUSKEGO - 11:23
  145. 120.0 - 19:58.2 - ALEX CARLSON - HUNTERDON - 11:24
  146. 119.7 - 19:59.1 - ARCHANA MOHANDAS - NEWBURY PARK - 11:24
  147. 119.6 - 19:59.6 - MORGAN HUTCHISON - CLOVIS - 11:24
  148. 119.1 - 20:01.2 - GRACE KAERCHER - MANLIUS - 11:25
  149. 119.0 - 20:01.5 - MIA HILL - NORTH SPOKANE - 11:25
  150. 118.9 - 20:01.7 - DIVINE TORZA - TEMECULA - 11:26
  151. 118.7 - 20:02.4 - ALLY TALLEY - PURCELLVILLE - 11:26
  152. 118.5 - 20:02.9 - MORGAN RICHTER - EDINA - 11:26
  153. 118.0 - 20:04.6 - TORI GAITAN - TEMECULA - 11:27
  154. 117.8 - 20:05.2 - AILISH HAWKINS - NEWBURY PARK - 11:28
  155. 117.8 - 20:05.2 - HANNAH ROUND - NEWBURY PARK - 11:28
  156. 117.4 - 20:06.5 - NAYA WRENN - PORTLAND - 11:28
  157. 117.0 - 20:07.8 - KATIE BYBEE - LONE PEAK - 11:29
  158. 116.7 - 20:08.8 - GRETCHEN SLATTUM - NEWBURY PARK - 11:30
  159. 116.6 - 20:09.0 - KYRA HOLLAND - PURCELLVILLE - 11:30
  160. 116.4 - 20:09.7 - AMY MOREFIELD - SOUTH - 11:30
  161. 116.1 - 20:10.6 - LILY WILLIAMS - RIDGEWOOD - 11:31
  162. 116.1 - 20:10.6 - ANYA BELISLE - KINETIC - 11:31
  163. 115.2 - 20:13.4 - SARA JOCHIMS - MUSKEGO - 11:32
  164. 115.1 - 20:13.6 - CLAIRE WAGNER - EDINA - 11:32
  165. 114.9 - 20:14.5 - CLAIRE COONEY - PORTLAND - 11:33
  166. 114.7 - 20:15.0 - LUCY WESTLAKE - NORTH NAPERVILLE - 11:33
  167. 114.2 - 20:16.6 - SARAH POLICANO - RIDGEWOOD - 11:34
  168. 114.1 - 20:16.9 - KIRSTIN TOWLE - PROSPER - 11:34
  169. 113.9 - 20:17.6 - ABIGAIL MCILVAIN - CARROLL - 11:35
  170. 113.6 - 20:18.6 - KENDALL HOBBS - BEAVERCREEK - 11:35
  171. 113.2 - 20:19.6 - REESE DRAGOVICH - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:36
  172. 111.8 - 20:24.1 - EMILEY KERN - PROSPER - 11:38
  173. 111.4 - 20:25.4 - NOELLE JUNIG - MUSKEGO - 11:39
  174. 111.1 - 20:26.4 - ANI OXBOROUGH - MUSKEGO - 11:40
  175. 110.1 - 20:29.5 - ALEXIS SVOBODA - PROSPER - 11:41
  176. 109.6 - 20:31.2 - KAYLEE ELLIOTT - CLOVIS - 11:42
  177. 108.8 - 20:33.6 - AMELIA AMACK - MANLIUS - 11:44
  178. 106.0 - 20:42.5 - GRACE WILLIAMSON - CARROLL - 11:49
  179. 105.3 - 20:44.5 - SOPHIE SMITH - FOREST PARK - 11:50
  180. 104.9 - 20:45.8 - NATALIE JACK - PORTLAND - 11:51
  181. 104.3 - 20:47.7 - MADDY DUGGLEBY - MANLIUS - 11:52
  182. 103.4 - 20:50.6 - SOPHIA REICH - HUNTERDON - 11:54
  183. 103.2 - 20:51.4 - TSU-QUIN-DA-RO ENYART - FOREST PARK - 11:54
  184. 101.9 - 20:55.3 - ALICE ROBERTS - PURCELLVILLE - 11:56
  185. 101.6 - 20:56.4 - KATE PARSONS - PROSPER - 11:57
  186. 101.2 - 20:57.7 - SIERRA STOCKER - FT. LAUDERDALE - 11:58
  187. 100.9 - 20:58.4 - ELLIE COOK - FOREST PARK - 11:58
  188. 100.6 - 20:59.4 - BRI TEEGARDEN - HIGHLANDS RANCH - 11:59
  189. 99.9 - 21:01.5 - KENDALL CARTER - NORTH SPOKANE - 12:00
  190. 98.9 - 21:04.8 - IZZY MAX - CENTRAL OREGON - 12:02
  191. 98.6 - 21:05.9 - ALEXA KARMIS - CARROLL - 12:02
  192. 97.7 - 21:08.5 - SADIE SCHREINER - EDINA - 12:04
  193. 96.4 - 21:12.7 - MADISON LEE - NORTH SPOKANE - 12:06
  194. 92.5 - 21:25.0 - TATUM CASTILLO - PROSPER - 12:13
  195. 91.5 - 21:28.2 - ALYSSA PANELLA - HUNTERDON - 12:15
  196. 90.8 - 21:30.3 - GRACE DAILEY - BEAVERCREEK - 12:16
  197. 75.2 - 22:19.5 - SAMI KEHLER - HUNTERDON - 12:44
  198. 69.2 - 22:38.3 - LORRIE AXELROD - FT. LAUDERDALE - 12:55
  199. 68.2 - 22:41.5 - AMANDA SCHWARTZ - FT. LAUDERDALE - 12:57
  200. 66.0 - 22:48.6 - LUCIA RABOLLI - RIDGEWOOD - 13:01
  201. 64.7 - 22:52.8 - MEGAN NOWE - BEAVERCREEK - 13:03
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Boys NXN Nationals Results/Ratings

Newbury Park CA's Nico Young led from the gun in a VERY impressive showing today, and also led his team to victory! Also, the boys team race was just as outstanding as expected with all three pre-race favorites finishing on the podium and only 14 points separating them! Also a strong race by St. Charles East IL to bounce back from their off race at NXR. Pretty muddy conditions today as it was raining a fair amount overnight and this morning in Portland.

Ratings estimate: 200.0 = 15:24

(edit: added estimated equivalent 3200m times for better comparison; also, had to adjust the results because original results had the #2-4 finishers in the incorrect order, though the times were correct ... let me know if you see any other errors)

Boys Teams:
  1. 128 - NEWBURY PARK - 78:47.3 - California D2 Champion - 193.0
  2. 132 - TEMECULA - 79:43.6 - California D1 Champion - 189.4
  3. 142 - DRAPER - 79:46.2 - NXR Southwest Champion - 189.2
  4. 163 - ST CHARLES - 79:57.6 - NXR Midwest Third Place - 188.5
  5. 213 - CROZET - 80:46.8 - NXR Southeast Runner-up - 185.3
  6. 226 - RHODE ISLAND - 80:44.2 - NXR Northeast Champion - 185.4
  7. 236 - LITTLETON - 80:29.1 - NXR Southwest Third Place - 186.4
  8. 247 - DANA POINT - 81:10.7 - California D2 Runner-up - 183.7
  9. 253 - WHEATON SOUTH - 81:06.1 - NXR Midwest Champion - 184.0
  10. 255 - PURCELLVILLE - 80:58.7 - NXR Southeast Champion - 184.5
  11. 274 - MANLIUS - 81:05.5 - NXR New York Champion - 184.1
  12. 275 - ELMHURST - 81:33.6 - NXR Midwest Runner-up - 182.2
  13. 284 - DENVER - 81:34.7 - NXR Southwest Runner-up - 182.2
  14. 285 - CARROLL - 81:27.7 - NXR South Champion - 182.6
  15. 316 - THE WOODLANDS - 81:40.9 - NXR South Runner-up - 181.8
  16. 327 - LINCROFT - 82:01.4 - NXR Northeast Runner-up - 180.4
  17. 386 - PORTLAND - 82:36.7 - NXR Northwest Runner-up - 178.1
  18. 407 - BURNT HILLS - 82:49.2 - NXR New York Runner-up - 177.3
  19. 415 - MOUNDS VIEW - 82:58.4 - NXR Heartland Champion - 176.7
  20. 434 - WEST KENNEWICK - 83:04.3 - NXR Northwest Champion - 176.3
  21. 491 - STEVENS POINT - 83:46.7 - NXR Heartland Runner-up - 173.6
  22. 581 - EASTWOOD - 84:34.0 - NXR South Third Place - 170.5

Boys Individuals:
  1. 210.3 - 14:52.3 - NICO YOUNG - NEWBURY PARK - 8:41
  2. 205.8 - 15:06.1 - JOSH METHNER - MIDWEST - 8:49
  3. 205.1 - 15:08.3 - CALEB BROWN - MIDWEST - 8:50
  4. 204.9 - 15:08.8 - MATT STRANGIO - CALIFORNIA - 8:51
  5. 204.9 - 15:09.0 - CONNOR OHLSON - LITTLETON - 8:51
  6. 204.7 - 15:09.6 - EJ HOLLAND - NORTHWEST - 8:51
  7. 204.5 - 15:10.1 - COLE SPROUT - SOUTHWEST - 8:51
  8. 203.9 - 15:12.0 - LIAM MURPHY - NORTHEAST - 8:53
  9. 203.4 - 15:13.4 - CARSON BELNAP - SOUTHWEST - 8:53
  10. 202.6 - 15:15.9 - WIL SMITH - NORTHWEST - 8:55
  11. 202.1 - 15:17.4 - NATHAN GREEN - NORTHWEST - 8:56
  12. 202.0 - 15:17.8 - ANTHONY MONTE - SOUTH - 8:56
  13. 201.5 - 15:19.5 - TRISTIAN MERCHANT - NORTHWEST - 8:57
  14. 201.3 - 15:20.0 - DYLAN SCHUBERT - SOUTHWEST - 8:57
  15. 201.3 - 15:20.1 - RYAN SCHOPPE - SOUTH - 8:57
  16. 200.9 - 15:21.1 - SAM LAWLER - NEW YORK - 8:58
  17. 200.3 - 15:23.1 - JACK SPAMER - MIDWEST - 8:59
  18. 198.3 - 15:29.1 - JACE ASCHBRENNER - NEWBURY PARK - 9:03
  19. 198.1 - 15:29.8 - BOB LIKING - ST CHARLES - 9:03
  20. 197.8 - 15:30.8 - CRUZ CULPEPPER - SOUTHWEST - 9:04
  21. 197.1 - 15:32.9 - ANTHONY GROVER - CALIFORNIA - 9:05
  22. 197.1 - 15:33.0 - CARLOS SHULTZ - PURCELLVILLE - 9:05
  23. 196.9 - 15:33.7 - ISAIAH GALINDO - CALIFORNIA - 9:05
  24. 196.5 - 15:34.8 - KEVIN ANTCZAK - NORTHEAST - 9:06
  25. 195.9 - 15:36.6 - MICHAEL MIRELES - CALIFORNIA - 9:07
  26. 195.8 - 15:37.0 - JUDSON GREER - SOUTH - 9:07
  27. 195.8 - 15:37.0 - BILLY HAUENSTEIN - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:07
  28. 195.7 - 15:37.3 - GRAHAM BLANKS - SOUTHEAST - 9:07
  29. 195.6 - 15:37.7 - JACKSON BRADDOCK - NORTHEAST - 9:08
  30. 195.4 - 15:38.2 - SAMUEL OTIS - MANLIUS - 9:08
  31. 195.3 - 15:38.4 - NICK SCHELLER - HEARTLAND - 9:08
  32. 195.0 - 15:39.3 - SPENCER CARDINAL - THE WOODLANDS - 9:09
  33. 194.7 - 15:40.2 - EVAN BISHOP - MIDWEST - 9:09
  34. 194.6 - 15:40.7 - LISANDRO BERRY-GAVIRIA - NORTHEAST - 9:09
  35. 194.5 - 15:41.0 - JACK MCLOUGHLIN - RHODE ISLAND - 9:10
  36. 194.3 - 15:41.6 - ABRAHAM AVILA-MARTINEZ - SOUTH - 9:10
  37. 194.2 - 15:41.9 - COLTON KEMPNEY - NEW YORK - 9:10
  38. 194.2 - 15:42.0 - EASTON ALLRED - DRAPER - 9:10
  39. 193.7 - 15:43.4 - BRENDAN FAVAZZA - MIDWEST - 9:11
  40. 193.3 - 15:44.5 - ISAAC TEEPLES - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:12
  41. 193.0 - 15:45.5 - JOE HAWKES - CROZET - 9:12
  42. 193.0 - 15:45.6 - PEYTON GEEHRER - MANLIUS - 9:12
  43. 192.9 - 15:45.8 - CARRICK DENKER - DANA POINT - 9:12
  44. 192.8 - 15:46.2 - JACK JENNINGS - NORTHEAST - 9:13
  45. 192.6 - 15:46.7 - MARK BOYLE - DRAPER - 9:13
  46. 192.3 - 15:47.6 - YASIN SADO - SOUTHWEST - 9:13
  47. 191.8 - 15:49.4 - SULLY SHELTON - SOUTHEAST - 9:14
  48. 191.4 - 15:50.5 - MICHAEL HANCOCK - MIDWEST - 9:15
  49. 191.4 - 15:50.6 - COLIN HILL - ELMHURST - 9:15
  50. 191.3 - 15:50.8 - EVAN REYNOLDS - NORTHEAST - 9:15
  51. 191.2 - 15:51.0 - JACK ELIASON - CROZET - 9:15
  52. 191.1 - 15:51.3 - AIDAN PALMER - NORTHWEST - 9:16
  53. 190.9 - 15:51.9 - COLIN SAHLMAN - NEWBURY PARK - 9:16
  54. 190.9 - 15:52.0 - GABE ABBES - TEMECULA - 9:16
  55. 190.9 - 15:52.0 - JACOB WHITE - LITTLETON - 9:16
  56. 190.8 - 15:52.2 - RYAN ALLISON - BURNT HILLS - 9:16
  57. 190.3 - 15:53.8 - MICAH WILSON - ST CHARLES - 9:17
  58. 190.1 - 15:54.4 - ETHAN HAMMER - THE WOODLANDS - 9:17
  59. 190.0 - 15:54.8 - ARIC REZA - TEMECULA - 9:18
  60. 189.8 - 15:55.3 - MAX DIMUCCIO - RHODE ISLAND - 9:18
  61. 189.7 - 15:55.6 - TIM MCELANEY - CARROLL - 9:18
  62. 189.6 - 15:56.0 - JOHN WORTHY GARCIA - TEMECULA - 9:18
  63. 188.9 - 15:58.3 - LEANDRO CANDRAY - TEMECULA - 9:20
  64. 188.6 - 15:59.0 - TROY HILL - LINCROFT - 9:20
  65. 188.6 - 15:59.1 - WILL CHAFFIN - NORTHEAST - 9:20
  66. 188.5 - 15:59.4 - MHALICKI BRONSON - MIDWEST - 9:20
  67. 188.4 - 15:59.6 - KELLEN HASLE - PURCELLVILLE - 9:20
  68. 188.3 - 15:59.9 - HENRY FARRINGTON - NORTHEAST - 9:21
  69. 188.1 - 16:00.6 - SETH ROUSE - DENVER - 9:21
  70. 187.9 - 16:01.3 - ALEX HARBERTSON - DRAPER - 9:21
  71. 187.7 - 16:01.9 - NATHANIEL LANNEN - CARROLL - 9:22
  72. 187.5 - 16:02.5 - MATEO JOSEPH - TEMECULA - 9:22
  73. 187.3 - 16:03.1 - GEOFF HOWLES - MANLIUS - 9:22
  74. 187.3 - 16:03.2 - AIDAN KING - ST CHARLES - 9:23
  75. 187.2 - 16:03.3 - JUSTIN WILSON - SOUTHEAST - 9:23
  76. 187.0 - 16:04.1 - KEVIN CARLSON - PURCELLVILLE - 9:23
  77. 186.9 - 16:04.2 - CHASE LEACH - RHODE ISLAND - 9:23
  78. 186.8 - 16:04.6 - JOSHUA STONE - NEW YORK - 9:23
  79. 186.7 - 16:04.9 - AJ ROWLAND - DRAPER - 9:24
  80. 186.6 - 16:05.3 - GITCH HAYES - NEW YORK - 9:24
  81. 185.9 - 16:07.4 - BRANDON PIZANO - DANA POINT - 9:25
  82. 185.7 - 16:08.1 - ANTONIO FLORCRUZ - CARROLL - 9:25
  83. 185.5 - 16:08.8 - IAN HARRISON - SOUTHEAST - 9:26
  84. 185.3 - 16:09.3 - STUART TERRILL - CROZET - 9:26
  85. 185.2 - 16:09.5 - DAVID ZELLER - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:26
  86. 185.1 - 16:09.8 - RYAN KINNANE - HEARTLAND - 9:26
  87. 185.1 - 16:09.9 - OLIVER PALEEN - HEARTLAND - 9:26
  88. 184.9 - 16:10.5 - SHAW POWELL - LINCROFT - 9:27
  89. 184.8 - 16:10.9 - HARRISON WITT - DENVER - 9:27
  90. 184.6 - 16:11.3 - CALEB JOHNSON - DRAPER - 9:27
  91. 184.0 - 16:13.2 - JAI DAWSON - DANA POINT - 9:28
  92. 183.8 - 16:13.8 - DANIEL KLYSH - ELMHURST - 9:29
  93. 183.6 - 16:14.5 - LUKE SCHILDMEYER - ST CHARLES - 9:29
  94. 183.5 - 16:14.7 - JACOB KLUCKHOHN - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:29
  95. 183.1 - 16:16.2 - NICK GOLDSTEIN - NEWBURY PARK - 9:30
  96. 183.0 - 16:16.3 - ZACK LOOMIS - ST CHARLES - 9:30
  97. 183.0 - 16:16.4 - RYAN SCHUMACHER - PORTLAND - 9:30
  98. 182.9 - 16:16.7 - PETER FOGARTY - NEW YORK - 9:30
  99. 182.8 - 16:17.0 - ALEC NELSON - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:31
  100. 182.5 - 16:17.8 - DANIEL APPLEFORD - NEWBURY PARK - 9:31
  101. 182.4 - 16:18.3 - BEN MORRIN - LITTLETON - 9:31
  102. 182.2 - 16:18.8 - JACK BENNETT - PORTLAND - 9:32
  103. 182.1 - 16:19.0 - DAVIS HELMERICH - DENVER - 9:32
  104. 181.9 - 16:19.6 - SEAN STUCK - SOUTHEAST - 9:32
  105. 181.7 - 16:20.4 - ALEX MAXWELL - RHODE ISLAND - 9:33
  106. 181.3 - 16:21.5 - FINN SOKOLOWSKI - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:33
  107. 180.8 - 16:23.0 - JAKE BOURGET - STEVENS POINT - 9:34
  108. 180.6 - 16:23.6 - JARED PEASLEE - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:34
  109. 180.6 - 16:23.7 - LEO YOUNG - NEWBURY PARK - 9:35
  110. 180.5 - 16:24.2 - BEN DASTRUP - DRAPER - 9:35
  111. 180.0 - 16:25.5 - SHUAYB HUSSEIN - HEARTLAND - 9:36
  112. 179.7 - 16:26.5 - MAX MURPHY - HEARTLAND - 9:36
  113. 179.6 - 16:26.7 - WILL BONNER - CROZET - 9:36
  114. 179.5 - 16:27.2 - DECLAN O'SCANNLAIN - PORTLAND - 9:37
  115. 179.4 - 16:27.3 - KYLE BOE - DENVER - 9:37
  116. 179.4 - 16:27.3 - MICKEY VREELAND - ELMHURST - 9:37
  117. 179.0 - 16:28.6 - CHRISTOPHER MIDDLETON-PEARSON - CALIFORNIA - 9:37
  118. 178.9 - 16:29.1 - MICHAEL MORIARTY - ELMHURST - 9:38
  119. 178.5 - 16:30.1 - OMAR GARCIA LOPEZ - DANA POINT - 9:38
  120. 178.4 - 16:30.6 - BEN SHEARER - SOUTH - 9:39
  121. 178.3 - 16:30.7 - ELLIOTT MCARTHUR - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:39
  122. 178.2 - 16:31.1 - CHRIS DESOUSA - LINCROFT - 9:39
  123. 178.2 - 16:31.2 - MATT SMITH - PURCELLVILLE - 9:39
  124. 177.7 - 16:32.8 - BRIAN PRATT - ELMHURST - 9:40
  125. 177.5 - 16:33.2 - COLE SAWIRES YAGER - TEMECULA - 9:40
  126. 177.2 - 16:34.2 - RYAN BROADHEAD - DANA POINT - 9:41
  127. 177.2 - 16:34.3 - JOSEPH TAYLOR - CROZET - 9:41
  128. 177.1 - 16:34.5 - ETHAN STRAUB - LITTLETON - 9:41
  129. 177.0 - 16:34.9 - BEN SANTOS - LINCROFT - 9:41
  130. 176.9 - 16:35.3 - BEN PIEGAT - LITTLETON - 9:41
  131. 176.8 - 16:35.6 - WILL MARCHANT - BURNT HILLS - 9:41
  132. 176.6 - 16:36.0 - THOMAS KALLEN - CROZET - 9:42
  133. 176.3 - 16:36.9 - JACK O'SULLIVAN - DENVER - 9:42
  134. 176.3 - 16:37.1 - AARON SOLTMANN - THE WOODLANDS - 9:42
  135. 176.2 - 16:37.2 - MICHAEL MCCABE - CARROLL - 9:42
  136. 176.1 - 16:37.5 - WILL YASDICK - ELMHURST - 9:43
  137. 175.8 - 16:38.5 - ARIK MANWARING - DRAPER - 9:43
  138. 175.6 - 16:39.1 - GRAYSON WILCOTT - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:44
  139. 175.5 - 16:39.6 - CHRIS VERDUGO - TEMECULA - 9:44
  140. 175.2 - 16:40.4 - CONNOR MURPHY - ST CHARLES - 9:44
  141. 175.1 - 16:40.6 - MATTHEW ROUNDS - BURNT HILLS - 9:44
  142. 174.9 - 16:41.3 - ETHAN SENG - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:45
  143. 174.4 - 16:42.7 - KEVIN BOARD - BURNT HILLS - 9:46
  144. 174.3 - 16:43.2 - STANFORD SMITH - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:46
  145. 174.3 - 16:43.3 - TYLER CHAMBERS - RHODE ISLAND - 9:46
  146. 174.2 - 16:43.5 - TRISTAN SERNAU - STEVENS POINT - 9:46
  147. 174.1 - 16:43.7 - ADAM THIBODEAU - RHODE ISLAND - 9:46
  148. 174.0 - 16:44.2 - JAKE LEPAK - STEVENS POINT - 9:46
  149. 173.8 - 16:44.8 - MATIAS MONONEN - THE WOODLANDS - 9:47
  150. 173.7 - 16:44.9 - SOLOMON CHAVEZ - CARROLL - 9:47
  151. 173.6 - 16:45.2 - SAM CURRAN - PORTLAND - 9:47
  152. 173.6 - 16:45.3 - KYLE EASTON - THE WOODLANDS - 9:47
  153. 173.4 - 16:45.9 - JACK MORAN - LINCROFT - 9:47
  154. 173.3 - 16:46.1 - MICHAEL ATKINS - WHEATON SOUTH - 9:48
  155. 173.2 - 16:46.4 - JAMES PEDEN - MANLIUS - 9:48
  156. 173.2 - 16:46.6 - ANDREW LARSON - WEST KENNEWICK - 9:48
  157. 172.9 - 16:47.5 - ELIAS PEREZ - EASTWOOD - 9:48
  158. 172.4 - 16:49.1 - JOE GARDNER - CARROLL - 9:49
  159. 172.4 - 16:49.1 - JOHN SCHULER - PORTLAND - 9:49
  160. 171.8 - 16:50.8 - JEREMIAH MUSSMON - PURCELLVILLE - 9:50
  161. 171.6 - 16:51.4 - ZACH SCHARBARTH - STEVENS POINT - 9:51
  162. 171.5 - 16:51.8 - WILL SACAY - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:51
  163. 171.4 - 16:52.2 - BRIAN SEWELL - THE WOODLANDS - 9:51
  164. 171.4 - 16:52.2 - DANIEL PATRICK - MANLIUS - 9:51
  165. 171.2 - 16:52.7 - NATHAN HERNANDEZ - EASTWOOD - 9:51
  166. 170.8 - 16:54.0 - SERGIO CUARTAS - EASTWOOD - 9:52
  167. 170.4 - 16:55.1 - JONAS LARSON - PORTLAND - 9:53
  168. 169.7 - 16:57.4 - MATT MILLER - MOUNDS VIEW - 9:54
  169. 169.6 - 16:57.5 - JUAN OLMOS - EASTWOOD - 9:54
  170. 169.5 - 16:57.8 - NICHOLAS SULLIVAN - LINCROFT - 9:54
  171. 169.4 - 16:58.1 - DAVID METACARPA - BURNT HILLS - 9:55
  172. 169.4 - 16:58.3 - MATEO BARRETO - PURCELLVILLE - 9:55
  173. 168.7 - 17:00.3 - JAYDEN NATS - DENVER - 9:56
  174. 168.1 - 17:02.3 - ANDREWS GURROLA - EASTWOOD - 9:57
  175. 167.3 - 17:04.6 - CHRISTIAN KIZEWSKI-MANTHEY - STEVENS POINT - 9:58
  176. 167.2 - 17:04.9 - JOSEPH MOERSCH - DANA POINT - 9:59
  177. 166.8 - 17:06.4 - JOSH BOURGET - STEVENS POINT - 9:59
  178. 166.5 - 17:07.3 - TIM CAHILL - LINCROFT - 10:00
  179. 166.2 - 17:08.0 - ETHAN KERN - ELMHURST - 10:00
  180. 166.1 - 17:08.3 - JACK ALTIMONDA - MANLIUS - 10:01
  181. 165.8 - 17:09.2 - JAMES JACOBS - STEVENS POINT - 10:01
  182. 165.8 - 17:09.3 - VICTOR PARRA - EASTWOOD - 10:01
  183. 165.7 - 17:09.5 - JOHNNY OLENEK - ST CHARLES - 10:01
  184. 165.6 - 17:09.9 - TINO PRECIADO - MOUNDS VIEW - 10:02
  185. 165.3 - 17:10.9 - ANDREW HOLLADAY - WEST KENNEWICK - 10:02
  186. 165.2 - 17:11.1 - JACK CASEY - RHODE ISLAND - 10:02
  187. 165.2 - 17:11.2 - AIDAN ALEXANDER - PORTLAND - 10:02
  188. 164.9 - 17:12.2 - BEN AMUNDSON - THE WOODLANDS - 10:03
  189. 164.8 - 17:12.5 - BLAKE OHLSON - LITTLETON - 10:03
  190. 164.7 - 17:12.7 - VICTOR ANCHONDO - EASTWOOD - 10:03
  191. 163.8 - 17:15.5 - NICK GROCK - BURNT HILLS - 10:05
  192. 163.3 - 17:17.0 - OWEN SHIFFLETT - CROZET - 10:06
  193. 162.7 - 17:19.0 - BRETT GILLEY - CARROLL - 10:07
  194. 162.0 - 17:21.1 - CARSON REWISKI - WHEATON SOUTH - 10:08
  195. 161.3 - 17:23.1 - WYATT OGLESBY - LITTLETON - 10:09
  196. 161.2 - 17:23.5 - JAX WEIDE - WEST KENNEWICK - 10:09
  197. 160.6 - 17:25.2 - NATE APOSTOL - MOUNDS VIEW - 10:10
  198. 160.2 - 17:26.6 - TAYLOR NEY - PURCELLVILLE - 10:11
  199. 159.2 - 17:29.6 - GIANNI VIOLA-WILHELMI - DANA POINT - 10:13
  200. 157.1 - 17:36.2 - COLIN MOONEY - DENVER - 10:17
  201. 157.0 - 17:36.5 - TOM MCDONNELL - NEWBURY PARK - 10:17
  202. 154.8 - 17:43.2 - DANTE UBRIACO - BURNT HILLS - 10:21
  203. 150.0 - 17:57.9 - BEN PERRY - MANLIUS - 10:30
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Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Fun with numbers - a quick sanity check on NXR Ratings **REVISED**

I thought it might be interesting to post this little tidbit about how accurate my ratings my be this year.

Every year after NXN, I run an analysis to see how the various NXR courses compare based on times ran at NXN (including removing outliers, so this isn't influenced by how well specific individuals ran but rather the groups of individuals ran after discounting outlier performances). This accomplishes two goals: identifying what regions I might have over/undervalued going into NXN, and estimating just how fast the course at NXN should be rated.

The results from last year's NXR and NXN analysis gave the following results:

200.0 mark for NXN Nationals Girls race should be about 15:02
200.0 mark for NXN Nationals Boys race should be about 15:11

(Side note: I feel good about those ratings, I think they are very fitting. For anyone reading these that want to compare to Meylan's speed ratings: they are derived differently, and it's not uncommon that I'm a little more generous in my ratings than Meylan is. That isn't always true, and for many meets we are close, but for whatever reason there are some circumstances where my ratings are consistently higher than his -- I have my theories as to why that difference exists and is as notable as it exists, but it would only be guesses and not worth spending time talking about ... so just realize that Meylan's speed ratings and my own form of ratings, beyond the difference of how they are calculated e.g. Meylan's +/- system vs. my multiplier system, are not identical and can't really be compared directly)

200.0 mark for each regional race:

14:43 NXR Southwest
14:44 California State
14:45 NXR Heartland
14:53 NXR Southeast
14:53 NXR Midwest
15:12 NXR Northwest
15:20 NXR South
15:32 NXR Northeast/New York

Taking those differences in the course, I thought it would be interesting to see how the differences might look BEYOND my usual methods, just as a check to see if I'm significantly over/under estimating any regional race this year.

Milesplit has a pretty neat tool that allows you to compare how the same races compare from year to year. Using that tool, and limiting my scope to the runners that ran at both races and taking the average time, average of the middle 80% of times, average difference for specific runners, and average difference of the middle 80% for specific runners (those are the measurements that seemed most consistent from region to region), I ran some numbers on how much faster/slower the courses seemed to run this year vs. last (if we assume that every region progresses year-to-year at roughly the same rate).

[EDIT - I found the reason why the Northwest runners improved by comparably less ... for some reason, Milesplit didn't bother to log the boys races in 2018! Serves me right for not double-checking Milesplit's data I guess ... as a result, I'll be removing the Northwest from this comparison, and revised the rest of the regions to look at data from the boys races only only ... which didn't change the results too much as would be expected unless a region had significantly more girls returning than boys, but aside from New York things did become slightly more in-line with what I was seeing while rating the different regional races]

For all of those measurements, the median differences throughout the regions were around 35 seconds improvement from last year to this year. I considered that the standard, and any region that improved by less than 35 seconds is an estimate that the course ran that much SLOWER (e.g., the same Midwest athletes average times were 22.9 seconds faster in 2019, so that would suggest the course ran 12.1 seconds slower this year compared to last: 35.0 - 22.9 = 12.1).

This isn't a perfect analysis for several reasons (it relies on the accuracy of milesplit's compiled data which I'm not double checking, different training programs will in general progress at different rates, environmental situation may influence how much a these runners progress from year to year e.g. less likely to train year-round in hot/cold regions or more likely to progress more significantly if living and training at altitude, it goes beyond the championship races for both years which is the focus of the ratings and the racing situation can influence times between different races, etc. etc.), which is why I'm not changing my regional ratings due to the findings, but it provides an idea of if I'm maybe on the right track.

The results, region-by-region:

NXR Heartland was rated at 14:45 last year in the final review. The analysis (702 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:41-14:46. I rated it a 14:46, so that's a pretty good fit!

NXR Midwest was rated at 14:53 last year in the final review. The analysis (676 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 15:02-15:05. I rated it at 14:58, so maybe a slight underrating of the region, but 4-7 seconds is within the margin of error IMO especially if it is on that lower end.

NXR Southwest was rated 14:43 last year in the final review. The analysis (683 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:55-14:59. I rated it at 14:50, so this could be a notable underrating by 5-9 seconds!

NXR South was rated at 15:20 last year in the final review. The analysis (513 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 15:14-15:15. I rated it at 15:14, so that's a pretty good fit!

NXR Southeast was rated at 14:53 last year in the final review. The analysis (252 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:49-14:50. I rated it at 14:53, so that's a pretty good fit!

California State was rated at 14:44 last year in the final review. The analysis (319 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 14:43-14:44. I rated it at 14:40, so that's a very good fit!

I don't rate the Northeast and New York races separately, but rather combine them, UNLESS there is a situation where the course conditions change notably between the races (e.g., a really muddy course that got worse as the day wore on). Unfortunately, Milesplit's tool looks at NXR-NE and NXR-NY separately, but these stay mostly in the same ballpark so it's not too big of a deal.

NXR Northeast was rated at 15:32 last year in the final review. The analysis (218 boys) shows this year it should be rated anywhere from 15:33-15:34. For NXR New York, the analysis (148 boys) shows anywhere from 15:27-15:30. Combined, that suggests anywhere from 15:27-15:34 but probably closer to 15:30-15:33. I rated it at 15:37, so that's a pretty decent fit but maybe slightly overestimating by as 5 seconds or so.

The biggest difference by far, though, was the NXR Northwest analysis.

We will find out on Saturday how much I over/under estimated the regional races. If the Southwest teams and individuals are notably more dominant than I already have them and Northeast/New York less competitive, I guess I need to be more aggressive with my year-to-year adjustments and that the regions are even less balanced that I thought!

BTW, here's a summary table of the analysis for those that might want to dig a little deeper.

2018 Rating - Region - Avg. Time - Middle 80% Time - Avg. Difference - Middle 80% Difference - Region - Averaged from Analysis - 2019 Rating

14:45 - HL - 14:46 - 14:42 - 14:46 - 14:41 - HL - 14:44 - 14:46
14:53 - MW - 15:05 - 15:03 - 15:05 - 15:02 - MW - 15:04 - 14:58
14:43 - SW - 14:59 - 14:55 - 14:59 - 14:55 - SW - 14:57 - 14:50
15:20 - SO - 15:15 - 15:14 - 15:15 - 15:14 - SO - 15:14 - 15:14
14:53 - SE - 14:50 - 14:50 - 14:50 - 14:49 - SE - 14:50 - 14:53
15:32 - NE - 15:34 - 15:34 - 15:34 - 15:33 - NE - 15:34 - 15:37
15:32 - NY - 15:27 - 15:29 - 15:27 - 15:30 - NY - 15:28 - 15:37
14:44 - CA - 14:43 - 14:43 - 14:43 - 14:44 - CA - 14:43 - 14:40
Since I consider 5-10 seconds to be a reasonable margin of error for comparing across different regions and different races (human performance is variable, and a runner being 5-10 seconds off wouldn't be considered an outlier in a statistical comparison), all of the regions would be within at least the larger side of that margin. The Southwest (+7), Midwest (+6) and New York (-9) are beyond 5 seconds but all less than 10, meaning I might be underrating the Southwest and Midwest while overrating New York -- but since New York and the Northeast run on the same course and the Northeast fits, I don't think the idea that New York is potentially being slightly overrated will end up playing out. The other 5 regions (sans Northwest, which Milesplit doesn't have the data for) are within 0-3 seconds of how I had them rated, which is a very good fit.


Post-NXN Nationals EDIT: After the conclusion of the national race, the post-race analysis had these as the suggested regional ratings:

(Boys Nationals = 15:24, Girls Nationals = 15:46)

NXR Heartland: 14:46 vs. the 14:46 I had them at, and 14:44 from the analysis above
NXR Midwest: 15:04 vs. the 14:58 I had them at, and 15:04 from the analysis above
NXR Northwest: 15:10 vs. the 15:10 I had them at (and didn't include above because Milesplit didn't have the right data to use)
NXR Southwest: 14:52 vs. the 14:50 I had them at, and 14:57 from the analysis above
NXR South: 15:16 vs. the 15:14 I had them at, and 15:14 from the analysis above
NXR Southeast: 14:49 vs. the 14:53 I had them at, and 14:50 from the analysis above
NXR Northeast/New York: 15:39 vs. the 15:37 I had them at, and 15:32ish from the analysis above
California State: 14:46 vs. the 14:40 I had them at, and 14:43 from the analysis above

In review, I was slightly underrating the Midwest and California (though not by a large margin, only 6 seconds), to an even lesser degree I slightly overrated Southeast (4 seconds), and every other region was within 2 seconds.
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Monday, December 2, 2019

Top Girls Teams/Individuals from NXR Meets

Here's a fun little look in case I don't get around to posting a proper NXN Projection this year. Every year, when looking through the regional races, I rate all of the races and throw them into a large field and parse it down until I get the top few teams so that I can gauge how well potential At-Large teams (and sometimes teams that might have finished fifth or sixth in a really strong region) might fare against the AQ teams already in the field. To that end, here is the scoring I had from NXR results ONLY for the 18 AQ teams + the top 7 non-AQ teams. Again, this does NOT represent who I think was necessarily the most deserving At-Large teams this year, but rather how everyone compared at the NXR meets specifically.

Included are the merged scores, the team time average from their meet, the associated ratings for that average time, the region they competed in and the place they got at the meet. Teams in bold are in the NXN field, teams underlined were eligible for At-Large consideration, and teams in italics were teams that were not eligible for At-Large consideration (were outside the top 4 at their regional meet).

Girls Teams:
  1. 126 - Summit OR - 18:01.40 - 143.5 - NW #1
  2. 209 - Saratoga Springs NY - 18:56.76 - 136.1 - NY #2
  3. 210 - North Central WA - 18:13.22 - 139.6 - NW #2
  4. 215 - Lone Peak UT - 17:58.33 - 136.5 - SW #1
  5. 227 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 18:45.20 - 139.7 - NY #1
  6. 234 - Jesuit OR - 18:26.44 - 135.2 - NW #3
  7. 265 - Valor Christian CO - 18:06.13 - 133.9 - SW #2
  8. 277 - Loudoun Valley VA - 18:10.82 - 133.5 - SE #1
  9. 286 - Niwot CO - 18:12.07 - 131.9 - SW #3
  10. 294 - Lincoln OR - 18:26.34 - 135.3 - NW #4
  11. 315 - Buchanan CA - 17:56.92 - 132.9 - CA #1
  12. 323 - Beavercreek OH - 18:20.52 - 132.3 - MW #2
  13. 326 - Great Oak CA - 18:06.54 - 129.6 - CA #2
  14. 348 - Cherry Creek CO - 18:13.08 - 131.6 - SW #4
  15. 350 - Muskego WI - 18:13.20 - 129.9 - HL #2
  16. 352 - Edina MN - 18:16.52 - 128.7 - HL #1
  17. 367 - Pine Crest FL - 18:29.50 - 127.3 - SE #2
  18. 368 - Sage Creek CA - 18:11.72 - 127.8 - CA #4
  19. 373 - Newbury Park CA - 18:10.38 - 128.3 - CA #3
  20. 395 - Naperville (North) IL - 18:33.34 - 128.1 - MW #1
  21. 412 - Prosper TX - 18:53.37 - 128.0 - SO #1
  22. 431 - Wayzata MN - 18:23.98 - 126.2 - HL #3
  23. 441 - North Hunterdon NJ - 19:27.40 - 126.2 - NE #1
  24. 453 - Southlake Carroll TX - 19:02.84 - 124.9 - SO #2
  25. 641 - Ridgewood NJ - 19:59.78 - 115.8 - NE #2
(note: all of the teams in the final NXN field are listed above; this is a VERY strong year where I feel like any of the 7 potential At-Large teams listed above would have easily made it in any other year, with the top 3 at-large teams potentially being the best At-Large teams ever invited. To go along with an incredible individual field, this year looks like it'll be the best field ever on the girls side and probably boys as well!)

 Also, it should be noted that obviously if you take out the 3 teams that didn't make the field, the scores would change as would the order of teams, but in general the groupings would remain intact which is as accurate as you can realistically expect to be in any projection.

Additionally, here are the top individuals from the NXR races; individuals in bold qualified for nationals, individuals underlined and in italics did NOT qualify and did not receive At-Large invites (to my knowledge). 45 of the Top 50 made it into the field, with the top performances not advancing being from #23, #32, #43, #49 and #50.

Girls Top-50 Individuals:
  1. 171.3 - Katelyn Tuohy - Lady Raiders XC - NY #1
  2. 166.8 - Sydney Thorvaldson - Unattached - NW #1
  3. 164.7 - Claire Walters - Manlius XC - NY #2
  4. 162.8 - Zofia Dudek - Purple Track Club (MI)  - MW #1
  5. 162.6 - Katelynne Hart - West Glenbard (IL)  - MW #2
  6. 161.8 - Fiona Max - Storm over Bend - NW #2
  7. 161.1 - Kate Peters - Red Bird Running Club - NW #3
  8. 160.4 - Allie Janke - North Spokane - NW #4
  9. 157.3 - DOROSTKAR, Carlie - Canyon Crest Academy-SDS - CA #1
  10. 156.5 - Sasha NEGLIA - Dobyns-Bennett XC - SE #1
  11. 156.4 - Taylor Ewert - Creek Strong (OH)  - MW #3
  12. 156.0 - Athena YOUNG - Morgantown XC - SE #2
  13. 155.4 - Tatum David - Unattached - MW #4
  14. 154.9 - Riley Stewart - Colorado Bruins - SW #1
  15. 154.2 - Charlotte Bednar - UNA-NJ-Bednar - NE #1
  16. 153.7 - Jenna Schulz - LPXC - NY #3
  17. 152.3 - SMITH, Corie - Buchanan-CS - CA #2
  18. 152.3 - Erin Strzelecki - Unattached - MW #5
  19. 151.1 - Mattalyn Geddes - Unat-Geddes-Mattalyn - NW #5
  20. 150.8 - Annalyssa Crain - Unattached - MW #6
  21. 150.5 - Chloe Foerster - STUMPTOWN XC CLUB - NW #6
  22. 149.9 - Brynn Brown - SOUTHSIDE RC - SO #1
  23. 149.9 - Zoe Duffus - Unattached - MW #7
  24. 149.8 - Eliza Arrington - Lone Peak XC - SW #2
  25. 149.8 - Samantha Blair - UNA CO - SW #3
  26. 149.7 - Colleen Stegmann - Reedy RC - SO #2
  27. 149.7 - Carlee Hansen - UNA UT - SW #4
  28. 149.5 - Hannah Kaercher - Manlius XC - NY #4
  29. 149.2 - Cameron McConnell - Cougar XC - SW #5
  30. 149.1 - Chloe Gonzalez - Hunterdon Lions Track Club - NE #2
  31. 148.8 - Lauren Ping - Thunder Running Club - SW #6
  32. 148.3 - Ava Parekh - Unattached - MW #8
  33. 148.2 - Meghan Ford - Buffalo City Running Club - HL #1
  34. 148.0 - Julia David Smith - Fly Eagles Fly - NW #7
  35. 147.8 - KLOS, Alexandra - Vista Del Lago-SJS - CA #3
  36. 147.7 - MCCLAIN, Harper - St Helena-NCS - CA #4
  37. 147.4 - Eva Jess - Franklin RC - SO #3
  38. 147.2 - Teaghan Knox - Storm over Bend - NW #8
  39. 147.0 - Sage Brooks - HKXC - NW #9
  40. 146.8 - CHAMBERLAIN, Riley - Del Oro-SJS - CA #5
  41. 146.5 - Kylie Hartnett - Helena Novas - NW #10
  42. 146.1 - Jenna Mulhern - West Chester XC Club - NE #3
  43. 146.1 - Lucy Huelskamp - Apollos Cross Country - NW #11
  44. 145.9 - Lea HATCHER - Morgantown XC - SE #3
  45. 145.8 - Ava GORDON - The Jungle TC - SE #4
  46. 145.6 - Brooke Rauber - Black Knights - NY #5
  47. 145.5 - Kate Sperka - Muskego XC Club - HL #2
  48. 145.3 - Marie Hostetler - Unattached - HL #3
  49. 145.3 - Karina James - Unattached - MW #9
  50. 145.3 - Brooke Stromsland - Unattached - MW #10
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Top Boys Teams/Individuals from NXR Meets

Here's a fun little look in case I don't get around to posting a proper NXN Projection this year. Every year, when looking through the regional races, I rate all of the races and throw them into a large field and parse it down until I get the top few teams so that I can gauge how well potential At-Large teams (and sometimes teams that might have finished fifth or sixth in a really strong region) might fare against the AQ teams already in the field. To that end, here is the scoring I had from NXR results ONLY for the 18 AQ teams + the top 7 non-AQ teams. Again, this does NOT represent who I think was necessarily the most deserving At-Large teams this year, but rather how everyone compared at the NXR meets specifically.

Included are the merged scores, the team time average from their meet, the associated ratings for that average time, the region they competed in and the place they got at the meet. Teams in bold are in the NXN field, teams underlined were eligible for At-Large consideration, and teams in italics were teams that were not eligible for At-Large consideration (were outside the top 4 at their regional meet).

Boys Teams:
  1. 154 - Newbury Park CA - 15:05.34 - 191.3 - CA #1
  2. 177 - Corner Canyon UT - 15:25.14 - 188.2 - SW #1
  3. 181 - Great Oak CA - 15:16.50 - 187.6 - CA #2
  4. 224 - Loudoun Valley VA - 15:33.18 - 186.5 - SE #1
  5. 243 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL - 15:42.72 - 185.1 - MW #1
  6. 246 - Mountain Vista CO - 15:33.91 - 185.2 - SW #2
  7. 270 - Dakota Ridge CO - 15:33.10 - 185.5 - SW #3
  8. 270 - Southlake Carroll TX - 16:01.63 - 184.4 - SO #1
  9. 293 - Western Albemarle VA - 15:40.88 - 183.9 - SE #2
  10. 295 - Dana Hills CA - 15:26.58 - 184.1 - CA #3
  11. 298 - La Salle Academy RI - 16:26.68 - 184.1 - NE #1
  12. 316 - Kamiakin WA - 15:58.90 - 183.9 - NW #1
  13. 318 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 16:26.44 - 184.2 - NY #1
  14. 342 - Elmhurst (York) IL - 15:51.80 - 182.0 - MW #2
  15. 356 - Severna Park MD - 15:48.52 - 181.3 - SE #3
  16. 363 - El Paso Eastwood TX - 16:09.72 - 181.7 - SO #3
  17. 366 - The Woodlands TX - 16:10.89 - 181.3 - SO #2
  18. 374 - Flower Mound TX - 16:12.15 - 180.9 - SO #4
  19. 375 - Franklin OR - 16:03.32 - 182.4 - NW #3
  20. 388 - Jesuit CA - 15:33.60 - 181.7 - CA #4
  21. 394 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ - 16:36.80 - 180.9 - NE #2
  22. 397 - Jesuit OR - 16:10.52 - 180.1 - NW #2
  23. 480 - Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake NY - 16:48.80 - 177.0 - NY #2
  24. 542 - Mounds View MN - 15:57.88 - 175.7 - HL #1
  25. 610 - Stevens Point WI - 16:04.76 - 173.3 - HL #2

(note: St. Charles East IL was invited as an At-Large team this year but didn't make the cut for the list above; I feel they were a good selection, not based on their NXR race, but on the body of their season. At NXR, their #1 was well off his usual, and while that alone wouldn't have put them clearly ahead of teams like Severna Park or El Paso Eastwood, they would have been in the same range as Franklin and Flower Mound, and with multiple wins over Wheaton-Warrenville South and York during the season that's good enough in my eyes)

Also, it should be noted that obviously if you take out the 4 teams that didn't make the field (and add in St. Charles East), the scores would change as would the order of teams, but in general the groupings would remain intact which is as accurate as you can realistically expect to be in any projection.

Additionally, here are the top individuals from the NXR races; individuals in bold qualified for nationals, individuals underlined and in italics did NOT qualify and did not receive At-Large invites (to my knowledge). Not as many of the top performers made it into the field compared to the girls with only 43 of the Top 50 advancing. Not making it were #22, #27, #29, #32, #44, #49 and #50.

Boys Top-50 Individuals:
  1. 203.9 - YOUNG, Nico - Newbury Park-SS - CA #1
  2. 202.9 - Cole Sprout - UNA CO - SW #1
  3. 202.7 - Carson Belnap - Stansbury XC - SW #2
  4. 202.6 - Ryan Schoppe - La Porte XC Club - SO #1
  5. 202.3 - Evan Holland - Lithia Distance Project - NW #1
  6. 200.1 - Josh Methner - Arlington XC (IL)  - MW #1
  7. 198.9 - Nathan Green - Lions XC - NW #2
  8. 198.8 - STRANGIO, Matt - Jesuit-SJS - CA #2
  9. 198.5 - Caleb Brown - Unattached - MW #2
  10. 198.5 - Cruz Culpepper - REAL Training - SW #3
  11. 198.4 - Graham BLANKS - Unattached - SE #1
  12. 198.3 - Connor Ohlson - Hogback XC - SW #4
  13. 198.0 - Aidan Palmer - Mount Tabor TC - NW #3
  14. 198.0 - Wil Smith - SOUTH CENTRAL - NW #4
  15. 197.8 - Judson Greer - Unattached - SO #2
  16. 197.7 - Isaac Teeples - Braves Soul - NW #5
  17. 197.4 - Mhalicki Bronson - Unattached - MW #3
  18. 197.4 - Evan Bishop - Unattached - MW #4
  19. 197.3 - Dylan Schubert - UNA CO - SW #5
  20. 197.2 - Yasin Sado - UNA CO - SW #6
  21. 197.1 - Tristian Merchant - Unat-Merchant-Tristian - NW #6
  22. 197.0 - Parker Wolfe - UNA CO - SW #7
  23. 196.8 - Peyton Geehrer - Manlius XC - NY #1
  24. 196.8 - Sean STUCK - West Springfield XC - SE #2
  25. 196.8 - Anthony Monte - Venom XC - SO #3
  26. 196.6 - Sully SHELTON - Hoya TC - SE #3
  27. 196.2 - Ahmed Ibrahim - Broncos - NW #7
  28. 196.1 - Jack Spamer - Unattached - MW #5
  29. 196.1 - Creed Thompson - Falcons XC - SW #8
  30. 196.0 - William Chaffin - Patriot Athletics Club - NE #1
  31. 196.0 - Brendan Favazza - Unattached - MW #6
  32. 195.9 - Dalton Mortensen - Bountiful XC - SW #9
  33. 195.7 - Ian HARRISON - Catamount XC - SE #4
  34. 195.6 - Abraham Avila-Martinez - Saints - SO #4
  35. 195.5 - Jack McLoughlin - La Salle Academy - NE #2
  36. 195.5 - Lisandro Berry-Gavi - UNA-ME-Berry-Gaviria - NE #3
  37. 195.3 - ASCHBRENNER, Jace - Newbury Park-SS - CA #3
  38. 195.1 - Ben Shearer - Warriors - SO #5
  39. 195.0 - Carlos SHULTZ - The Jungle TC - SE #5
  40. 194.1 - Sam Lawler - Vikings XC - NY #2
  41. 194.1 - Shaw Powell - Brothers TC - NE #4
  42. 193.7 - Justin WILSON - Wickham Park DP - SE #6
  43. 193.7 - Mark Boyle - Draper XC - SW #10
  44. 193.6 - Gus McIntyre - UNA CO - SW #11
  45. 193.4 - Jackson Braddock - UNA-NJ-Braddock - NE #5
  46. 193.2 - DENKER, CARRICK - Dana Hills-SS - CA #4
  47. 193.1 - Jack ELIASON - Crozet Crew - SE #7
  48. 193.0 - GALINDO, Isaiah - Clovis North-CS - CA #5
  49. 192.9 - Nicklaus Brawner - Park - SO #6
  50. 192.8 - Peter Visser - SVXC - NW #8
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Sunday, November 10, 2019

Girls NXR Heartland Results/Ratings

Ratings Estimate: 200.0 = 14:45

Teams/Individuals in bold qualified for NXN Nationals.
Underlined teams are eligible for At-Large consideration.

Girls Championship Teams:
  1. 97 - Edina MN - 91:22.6 - Minnesota 2A Champion - 128.3
  2. 121 - Muskego WI - 91:06.0 - Wisconsin D1 Champion - 129.4
  3. 145 - Wayzata MN - 91:59.9 - Minnesota 2A Runner-up - 125.8
  4. 191 - Sioux Falls Lincoln SD - 93:07.5 - South Dakota 2A Champion - 121.2
  5. 232 - Stillwater MN - 92:54.8 - Minnesota 2A Fifth Place - 122.0
  6. 237 - St. Michael-Albertville MN - 92:57.4 - Minnesota 2A Third Place - 121.9
  7. 282 - Onalaska WI - 93:39.0 - Wisconsin D1 Runner-up - 119.1
  8. 285 - Farmington MN - 93:31.7 - Minnesota 2A Seventh Place - 119.5
  9. 289 - Willmar MN - 94:19.2 - Minnesota 2A Eighth Place - 116.3
  10. 296 - Minnetonka MN - 94:23.7 - Minnesota 2A-6 Fourth Place - 116.0
  11. 320 - St. Paul Highland Park MN - 94:26.0 - Minnesota 2A Sixth Place - 115.9
  12. 337 - Johnston IA - 94:45.6 - Iowa 4A Champion - 114.5
  13. 338 - Alexandria MN - 94:58.1 - Minnesota 2A Fourth Place - 113.7
  14. 345 - Lincoln East NE - 94:51.6 - Nebraska A Champion - 114.1
  15. 356 - Eden Prairie MN - 94:41.5 - Minnesota 2A-6 Third Place - 114.8
  16. 383 - Mill Valley KS - 95:39.4 - Kansas 6A Champion - 110.9
  17. 421 - White Bear Lake MN - 96:07.1 - Minnesota 2A-4 Third Place - 109.0
  18. 427 - Olathe North KS - 96:21.2 - Kansas 6A Third Place - 108.1
  19. 470 - Fremont NE - 96:32.0 - Nebraska A Runner-up - 107.3
  20. 479 - Dubuque Senior IA - 97:04.4 - Iowa 4A Runner-up - 105.1
  21. 493 - Arrowhead WI - 97:09.3 - Wisconsin D1 Fifth Place - 104.8
  22. 540 - St. Thomas Aquinas KS - 98:07.0 - Kansas 5A Fourth Place - 100.9
  23. 590 - Lincoln Southwest NE - 98:31.8 - Nebraska A Fourth Place - 99.2
  24. 593 - Blue Valley Southwest KS - 99:47.1 - Kansas 5A Runner-up - 94.1
  25. 601 - Davies ND - 98:49.2 - North Dakota A Runner-up - 98.0
  26. 697 - Olathe West KS - 100:33.4 - Kansas 6A Runner-up - 91.0
  27. 708 - West Des Moines Valley IA - 100:47.6 - Iowa 4A Sixth Place - 90.0
  28. 712 - Minot ND - 100:29.1 - North Dakota A Fourth Place - 91.2
  29. 727 - Maize South KS - 101:22.3 - Kansas 5A Third Place - 87.6
  30. 869 - St. James Academy KS - 105:46.2 - Kansas 5A Champion - 69.7

Championship Girls Top-100 Individuals:
  1. 147.8 - Meghan Ford, 11 - Jamestown ND - 17:19.1
  2. 145.1 - Kate Sperka, 11 - Muskego WI - 17:26.9
  3. 144.9 - Marie Hostetler, 12 - Unattached - 17:27.4
  4. 144.8 - Analee Weaver, 11 - Stillwater MN - 17:27.7
  5. 144.2 - Anna Fenske, 11 - Farmington MN - 17:29.6
  6. 143.8 - Kora Malecek, 11 - Onalaska WI - 17:30.7
  7. 140.6 - Ali Weimer, 10 - St. Michael-Albertville MN - 17:40.2
  8. 140.6 - Liesl Paulsen, 12 - Eden Prairie MN - 17:40.3
  9. 138.4 - Sydney Drevlow, 7 - Hopkins MN - 17:46.8
  10. 137.3 - Abbey Nechanicky, 9 - Wayzata MN - 17:49.9
  11. 134.7 - Berlyn Schutz, 9 - Lincoln East NE - 17:57.6
  12. 134.5 - Bella Heikes, 11 - Johnston IA - 17:58.2
  13. 134.0 - Riley Collett, 10 - Unattached - 17:59.6
  14. 133.9 - Anna Fauske, 11 - Unattached - 17:59.9
  15. 133.9 - Genevieve Nashold, 10 - Unattached - 18:00.0
  16. 133.9 - Mariah Fenske, 8 - Farmington MN - 18:00.1
  17. 133.4 - Molly Moening, 10 - St. Paul Highland Park MN - 18:01.6
  18. 132.3 - Elli Dahl, 10 - Fremont NE - 18:04.8
  19. 132.2 - Brittany Helm, 12 - Muskego WI - 18:04.9
  20. 132.2 - Maggie Wagner, 10 - Edina MN - 18:05.0
  21. 132.1 - Lauren Cossack, 9 - Edina MN - 18:05.3
  22. 131.1 - Natasha Sortland, 9 - Unattached - 18:08.4
  23. 130.4 - Rachel Helm, 10 - Muskego WI - 18:10.2
  24. 130.4 - Iris Guider, 10 - St. Paul Central MN - 18:10.4
  25. 130.3 - Brianne Brewster, 12 - Lakeville South MN - 18:10.6
  26. 129.9 - Lillian Schmidt, 11 - Dubuque Senior IA - 18:11.7
  27. 129.5 - Tori Wingrove, 10 - Unattached - 18:13.0
  28. 129.5 - Grace Link, 11 - Wayzata MN - 18:13.1
  29. 127.6 - Hayley Ogle, 11 - Unattached - 18:18.6
  30. 127.6 - Morgan Richter, 12 - Edina MN - 18:18.7
  31. 127.1 - Katie Sigerud, 10 - St. Michael-Albertville MN - 18:20.0
  32. 127.0 - Isabelle Schmitz, 8 - Unattached - 18:20.3
  33. 126.9 - Tenley Nelson, 10 - Unattached - 18:20.5
  34. 126.4 - Madeline Verkerke, 12 - White Bear Lake MN - 18:22.2
  35. 126.4 - Lauren Eilers, 7 - Willmar MN - 18:22.2
  36. 126.1 - Roisin Willis, 10 - Unattached - 18:23.0
  37. 126.0 - Ella Dufault, 9 - Unattached - 18:23.2
  38. 125.6 - Brooke Elfert, 9 - Stillwater MN - 18:24.6
  39. 125.5 - Macy Iyer, 10 - Edina MN - 18:24.9
  40. 124.9 - Madison Fairley, 10 - Unattached - 18:26.6
  41. 124.3 - Lean? Willemse, 11 - Unattached - 18:28.3
  42. 124.2 - Mary Velner, 9 - Edina MN - 18:28.7
  43. 124.0 - Aleah Tenpas, 10 - Johnston IA - 18:29.3
  44. 123.9 - Katie Schwartzkopf, 10 - Mill Valley KS - 18:29.4
  45. 123.7 - McKayla Felton, 11 - Muskego WI - 18:30.0
  46. 123.7 - Onnica Stansbury, 11 - Unattached - 18:30.1
  47. 123.7 - Leah Derenge, 10 - Sioux Falls Lincoln SD - 18:30.2
  48. 123.4 - Caroline Sudbeck, 12 - Sioux Falls Lincoln SD - 18:30.9
  49. 123.0 - Gigi Loffredo, 11 - Blue Valley Southwest KS - 18:32.1
  50. 122.7 - Lydia Malecek, 11 - Onalaska WI - 18:33.0
  51. 122.5 - Ella Graham, 8 - Minnetonka MN - 18:33.6
  52. 122.5 - Emelia Arnone, 11 - Wayzata MN - 18:33.7
  53. 122.5 - Lila Batcheller, 10 - Sioux Falls Lincoln SD - 18:33.7
  54. 122.4 - Amalia Malecek, 11 - Onalaska WI - 18:33.8
  55. 122.3 - Delia Johnson, 9 - St. Paul Highland Park MN - 18:34.2
  56. 121.9 - Taylor Briggs, 11 - Unattached - 18:35.4
  57. 121.6 - Morgan Koca, 12 - Mill Valley KS - 18:36.3
  58. 121.5 - Alexa Rios, 11 - Maize South KS - 18:36.6
  59. 121.2 - Claire Vukovics, 7 - Lakeville North MN - 18:37.6
  60. 121.1 - Teegan Anderson, 9 - Wayzata MN - 18:37.7
  61. 120.9 - Ainsley Erzen, 10 - Carlisle IA - 18:38.2
  62. 120.9 - Melanie Pankow, 11 - White Bear Lake MN - 18:38.2
  63. 120.7 - Emma Ecker, 10 - Alexandria MN - 18:38.8
  64. 120.0 - Kate Leblanc, 10 - Minnetonka MN - 18:40.9
  65. 119.9 - Sarah Whitaker, 12 - Olathe North KS - 18:41.3
  66. 119.8 - Hannah Godwin, 11 - Unattached - 18:41.5
  67. 119.4 - Kylie Muma, 9 - Lincoln East NE - 18:42.8
  68. 118.5 - Ella Braufman, 10 - Wayzata MN - 18:45.5
  69. 118.4 - Hannah Dumansky, 10 - Sioux Falls Lincoln SD - 18:45.6
  70. 118.2 - Laci Provenzano, 11 - Hopkins MN - 18:46.2
  71. 118.2 - Allison Strathman, 12 - St. Thomas Aquinas KS - 18:46.3
  72. 118.0 - Aliyah Bainbridge, 9 - Unattached - 18:46.8
  73. 118.0 - Claire Wagner, 12 - Edina MN - 18:46.9
  74. 117.9 - Addalai Dekam, 8 - Sioux Falls Lincoln SD - 18:47.1
  75. 117.8 - Erin Eilers, 7 - Willmar MN - 18:47.4
  76. 117.8 - Grace Mignone, 9 - Wayzata MN - 18:47.6
  77. 117.6 - Claire Edmondson, 12 - Dubuque Senior IA - 18:48.0
  78. 117.4 - Morgan Peterman, 9 - Stillwater MN - 18:48.7
  79. 117.0 - Alyssa Nielsen, 10 - Arrowhead WI - 18:49.9
  80. 116.9 - Lyndi Koosman, 8 - Willmar MN - 18:50.0
  81. 116.7 - Aleah Miller, 10 - Alexandria MN - 18:50.6
  82. 116.5 - Aubree Blackman, 9 - Olathe West KS - 18:51.2
  83. 116.5 - McKenna Lovehaug, 11 - Davies ND - 18:51.2
  84. 116.2 - Mya Kizer, 11 - Unattached - 18:52.1
  85. 116.1 - Zoie Ecord, 10 - Maize KS - 18:52.4
  86. 115.8 - Lauren Schulze, 11 - West Des Moines Valley IA - 18:53.3
  87. 115.8 - Elizabeth Weider, 8 - Minnetonka MN - 18:53.5
  88. 115.8 - Nina Dawson, 10 - Willmar MN - 18:53.5
  89. 115.6 - Noelle Junig, 9 - Muskego WI - 18:54.0
  90. 115.2 - Lexie Dockstader, 10 - Olathe North KS - 18:55.1
  91. 115.1 - Avery Braunshausen, 9 - Stillwater MN - 18:55.4
  92. 115.1 - Ellie Smith, 11 - Onalaska WI - 18:55.5
  93. 115.1 - Abrielle Jirele, 12 - Eden Prairie MN - 18:55.6
  94. 114.4 - Ally Schmitz, 10 - Unattached - 18:57.5
  95. 114.4 - Ani Oxborough, 11 - Muskego WI - 18:57.6
  96. 114.3 - Paige McAloon, 12 - St. Michael-Albertville MN - 18:57.8
  97. 114.3 - Grace Bonsall, 12 - Unattached - 18:57.9
  98. 114.1 - Emma Windingland, 9 - St. Michael-Albertville MN - 18:58.5
  99. 114.0 - Madeline Hyland, 12 - Unattached - 18:58.7
  100. 114.0 - Caroline Harding, 12 - St. Paul Highland Park MN - 18:58.7

Yankton Trails Team Time Course Record: 88:53.40 (Wayzata MN 2017)
Yankton Trails Individual Course Record: 16:48.70 (Tierney Wolfgram, Math & Science Academy MN 2017)
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Boys NXR Heartland Results/Ratings

Ratings Estimate: 200.0 = 14:45

Teams/Individuals in bold qualified for NXN Nationals.
Underlined teams are eligible for At-Large consideration.

Boys Championship Teams:
  1. 125 - Mounds View MN - 79:49.4 - Minnesota 2A Champion - 175.3
  2. 177 - Stevens Point WI - 80:23.8 - Wisconsin D1 Runner-up - 173.0
  3. 188 - Eden Prairie MN - 80:24.2 - Minnesota 2A Runner-up - 172.9
  4. 227 - Middleton WI - 80:52.3 - Wisconsin D1 Champion - 171.0
  5. 244 - Eastview MN - 80:33.0 - Minnesota 2A Sixth Place - 172.3
  6. 268 - Lincoln Southwest NE - 81:18.4 - Nebraska A Champion - 169.3
  7. 276 - Williston ND - 81:15.4 - North Dakota A Runner-up - 169.5
  8. 293 - St. Paul Highland Park MN - 80:25.3 - Minnesota 2A Third Place - 172.9
  9. 297 - Pleasant Valley IA - 80:57.0 - Iowa 4A Runner-up - 170.7
  10. 309 - Dowling Catholic IA - 81:22.0 - Iowa 4A Champion - 169.0
  11. 338 - Edina MN - 81:44.0 - Minnesota 2A Fourth Place - 167.5
  12. 344 - White Bear Lake MN - 81:50.3 - Minnesota 2A Seventh Place - 167.1
  13. 374 - Sioux Falls Lincoln SD - 81:35.5 - South Dakota 2A Champion - 168.1
  14. 379 - St. Thomas Aquinas KS - 82:07.3 - Kansas 5A Champion - 165.9
  15. 381 - Stillwater MN - 82:11.2 - Minnesota 2A-4 Third Place - 165.7
  16. 480 - Hempstead IA - 83:04.2 - Iowa 4A Third Place - 162.1
  17. 498 - Hopkins MN - 83:09.6 - Minnesota 2A-6 Third Place - 161.7
  18. 499 - Buffalo MN - 83:00.4 - Minnesota 2A Eighth Place - 162.3
  19. 501 - Lawrence Free State KS - 83:07.8 - Kansas 6A Fifth Place - 161.8
  20. 510 - Johnston IA - 83:13.0 - Iowa 4A Fourth Place - 161.5
  21. 511 - Willmar MN - 83:03.6 - Minnesota 2A Ninth Place - 162.1
  22. 517 - Lincoln North Star NE - 83:19.2 - Nebraska A Third Place - 161.1
  23. 521 - Wayzata MN - 82:43.9 - Minnesota 2A-6 Fourth Place - 163.5
  24. 531 - Germantown WI - 82:54.1 - Wisconsin D1 Eighth Place - 162.8
  25. 549 - Washburn Rural KS - 83:31.9 - Kansas 6A Champion - 160.2
  26. 574 - Mill Valley KS - 83:36.7 - Kansas 6A Third Place - 159.9
  27. 587 - Sioux City North IA - 83:44.4 - Iowa 4A Fifth Place - 159.4
  28. 621 - Perham MN - 84:01.3 - Minnesota 1A Champion - 158.2
  29. 626 - Olathe South KS - 84:05.5 - Kansas 6A Runner-up - 157.9
  30. 641 - Millard West NE - 84:22.7 - Nebraska A Runner-up - 156.8
  31. 714 - Grand Island NE - 85:56.8 - Nebraska A Fifth Place - 150.4

Championship Boys Top-100 Individuals:
  1. 188.9 - Nicholas Scheller, 12 - Chanhassen MN - 15:17.8
  2. 188.4 - Oliver Paleen, 12 - St. Paul Highland Park MN - 15:19.1
  3. 188.3 - Ryan Kinnane, 12 - Andover KS - 15:19.5
  4. 188.3 - Max Murphy, 12 - Pleasant Valley IA - 15:19.5
  5. 188.2 - Shuayb Hussein, 12 - Wayzata MN - 15:19.7
  6. 188.2 - Aj Green, 12 - Eastview MN - 15:19.9
  7. 187.4 - Andrew Lauer, 12 - Sioux Falls Lincoln SD - 15:22.2
  8. 187.2 - Brady Yoder, 11 - Unattached - 15:22.9
  9. 185.9 - Geno Uhrbom, 11 - Unattached - 15:26.6
  10. 185.6 - Emmet Anderson, 11 - Unattached - 15:27.4
  11. 185.3 - Calvin Boone, 12 - St. Paul Highland Park MN - 15:28.4
  12. 185.0 - Ben Schnoor, 12 - Germantown WI - 15:29.2
  13. 184.3 - Gavin Kuhlenbeck, 12 - Unattached - 15:31.2
  14. 183.7 - Gavin Haut, 11 - Jamestown ND - 15:33.2
  15. 183.1 - Max Lauerman, 12 - Minnetonka MN - 15:35.0
  16. 182.7 - Jacob Knodle, 11 - Unattached - 15:36.1
  17. 182.4 - Sam Hall, 12 - Dowling Catholic IA - 15:36.9
  18. 181.7 - Zach Vanbrocklin, 12 - Unattached - 15:38.9
  19. 181.4 - Jack Pendergast, 12 - CR Prairie IA - 15:40.0
  20. 181.2 - Nicholas Holmes, 12 - Unattached - 15:40.4
  21. 181.0 - John Scherer Iv, 11 - Unattached - 15:41.0
  22. 180.9 - Nick Oak, 12 - Buffalo MN - 15:41.4
  23. 180.8 - Jake Derouin, 12 - Eden Prairie MN - 15:41.7
  24. 179.9 - Gabe Smit, 11 - Prior Lake MN - 15:44.2
  25. 179.6 - Lucas Florsheim, 12 - Unattached - 15:45.2
  26. 179.4 - Dylan Dolezal, 12 - Unattached - 15:45.9
  27. 179.1 - Jacob Green, 12 - Unattached - 15:46.6
  28. 178.8 - Russell Gokemeijer, 12 - Edina MN - 15:47.6
  29. 178.8 - Jacob Bright, 12 - Unattached - 15:47.6
  30. 178.1 - Ben Anteau, 11 - Jamestown ND - 15:49.6
  31. 178.0 - Conor Gregg Escala, 12 - St. Paul Highland Park MN - 15:49.9
  32. 177.9 - Finn Sokolowski, 12 - Mounds View MN - 15:50.2
  33. 177.8 - Robert White, 12 - Unattached - 15:50.4
  34. 177.6 - Jake Lepak, 12 - Stevens Point WI - 15:51.1
  35. 177.6 - Carter Briggs, 12 - Winona MN - 15:51.2
  36. 177.5 - Joshua Truchon, 11 - West Allis Nathan Hale WI - 15:51.3
  37. 177.5 - Nolan Richey, 11 - Unattached - 15:51.3
  38. 177.3 - Treyson True, 11 - Unattached - 15:51.9
  39. 177.2 - Alec Nelson, 12 - Mounds View MN - 15:52.4
  40. 177.1 - Carson Sturdy, 11 - De Soto KS - 15:52.6
  41. 176.9 - Max Nelson, 12 - White Bear Lake MN - 15:53.2
  42. 176.6 - Micade Shumway, 12 - Williston ND - 15:54.1
  43. 176.5 - Sean Korsmo, 11 - Bismarck ND - 15:54.2
  44. 176.4 - Nick Abdalla, 11 - Omaha South NE - 15:54.5
  45. 176.4 - Zach Spears, 12 - Eden Prairie MN - 15:54.6
  46. 176.1 - Darius Hightower, 12 - Mill Valley KS - 15:55.4
  47. 176.1 - Gabriel Mahlen, 11 - Eastview MN - 15:55.5
  48. 176.1 - Logan Seger, 10 - St. Thomas Aquinas KS - 15:55.5
  49. 176.0 - Zachary Long, 12 - Chanhassen MN - 15:55.9
  50. 175.9 - Gunnar Alvarado, 11 - Williston ND - 15:56.2
  51. 175.9 - Adam Koller, 12 - Unattached - 15:56.2
  52. 175.5 - Zach Slevin, 12 - Unattached - 15:57.4
  53. 175.4 - Egan Johnson, 12 - Middleton WI - 15:57.5
  54. 175.3 - Mason Kindel, 11 - Century ND - 15:57.9
  55. 175.2 - Jacob Bourget, 11 - Stevens Point WI - 15:58.1
  56. 175.1 - Jack Nolley, 12 - Lincoln Southwest NE - 15:58.4
  57. 175.1 - Jakob McCleary, 10 - Perham MN - 15:58.4
  58. 174.7 - Peter Hoferle, 12 - Middleton WI - 15:59.7
  59. 174.5 - Alex Vance, 12 - Unattached - 16:00.1
  60. 174.4 - Alex Gutierrez, 11 - Eden Prairie MN - 16:00.4
  61. 174.4 - Liem Chot, 11 - Lincoln North Star NE - 16:00.5
  62. 174.2 - Will Sacay, 12 - Mounds View MN - 16:01.0
  63. 174.2 - Matt Miller, 11 - Mounds View MN - 16:01.0
  64. 173.8 - Charles Johnson, 12 - Lawrence Free State KS - 16:02.4
  65. 173.8 - Henry Nelson, 12 - Unattached - 16:02.4
  66. 173.3 - Fuad Bashir, 11 - Willmar MN - 16:03.8
  67. 173.2 - Zach Fry, 12 - Dowling Catholic IA - 16:04.1
  68. 173.2 - Mason Wendt, 12 - Willmar MN - 16:04.2
  69. 172.9 - Elliott McArthur, 9 - Mounds View MN - 16:04.8
  70. 172.8 - Gavin Czarnecki, 11 - Unattached - 16:05.1
  71. 172.5 - Jimmy Koel, 12 - Germantown WI - 16:06.2
  72. 172.4 - Mason Shea, 12 - Unattached - 16:06.4
  73. 172.3 - Zeb Mendel, 11 - Sioux Falls Lincoln SD - 16:06.6
  74. 172.3 - Meti Omod, 12 - Unattached - 16:06.6
  75. 172.2 - Kole Sommer, 11 - Pleasant Valley IA - 16:07.0
  76. 171.8 - Drew Snyder, 11 - Lincoln Southwest NE - 16:08.3
  77. 171.6 - Ryan Winger, 11 - Hempstead IA - 16:08.9
  78. 171.5 - Ian Kaffenberger, 12 - Pleasant Valley IA - 16:09.1
  79. 171.5 - Sam Gomon, 12 - Unattached - 16:09.2
  80. 171.4 - Mitchell Johnstone, 12 - Unattached - 16:09.3
  81. 171.4 - Ethan Vargas, 11 - Stillwater MN - 16:09.4
  82. 171.3 - Quinton Orr, 11 - Humboldt IA - 16:09.7
  83. 171.2 - James Jacobs, 10 - Stevens Point WI - 16:10.1
  84. 171.0 - Christian Manthey, 12 - Stevens Point WI - 16:10.6
  85. 170.9 - Christian Lietz, 12 - Unattached - 16:10.8
  86. 170.9 - Griffin Ward, 10 - Middleton WI - 16:10.8
  87. 170.7 - Tyson Mahar, 11 - East Grand Forks MN - 16:11.4
  88. 170.7 - Augustus Hubbell, 12 - Edina MN - 16:11.5
  89. 170.6 - Santino Preciado, 12 - Mounds View MN - 16:11.7
  90. 170.6 - Austin Fullerton, 12 - Unattached - 16:11.8
  91. 170.5 - Isaac Maruyama, 12 - White Bear Lake MN - 16:11.9
  92. 170.0 - Noah Lundeen, 12 - Unattached - 16:13.4
  93. 169.9 - Tanner Newkirk, 10 - Unattached - 16:13.7
  94. 169.9 - Tristan Sernau, 12 - Stevens Point WI - 16:13.9
  95. 169.8 - Sam Harmon, 12 - Fargo North ND - 16:14.0
  96. 169.7 - Aiden Higgerson, 12 - St. Thomas Aquinas KS - 16:14.5
  97. 169.4 - Fynn Krenz, 9 - Williston ND - 16:15.2
  98. 169.4 - Jack Hesse-Withbr, 11 - Stillwater MN - 16:15.3
  99. 169.1 - Braedon Gilles, 12 - Middleton WI - 16:16.1
  100. 168.9 - Sam Morgenstern, 12 - Eastview MN - 16:16.7

Yankton Trails Team Time Course Record: 77:46.85 (Wayzata MN 2017)
Yankton Trails Individual Course Record: 14:39.40 (Finn Gessner, Madison La Follette WI 2016)
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Monday, November 4, 2019

Breaking down the top girls teams in the nations

Since the first NXR region is coming up this weekend (the Heartland meet in South Dakota), I took a quick look at how the girls teams around the nation compare today, including a simulated psuedo-NXN field (I included the top 2 teams from each region, left in no more than 4 teams from any region, and included all of the regional #3/4 teams that look to be vying for an At-Large spot which gave me a field of 24).

Here's a list of the tiers, and their scoring range. Potential At-Large teams, given these projections, in bold.

Tier 1 (160-240 points) - Potential NXN Trophy finishers
NW (3): North Central WA, Summit OR, Boise ID
SW (2): Niwot CO, Lone Peak UT
NY (2): Fayetteville-Manlius NY, Saratoga Springs NY
MW (1): Beaver Creek OH
CA (1): Great Oak CA

Tier 2 (300-340 points) - Potential NXN Top 10/15, and potential At-Large invitees
NW (4): Jesuit OR, Lincoln OR, Bozeman MT and Timberline (Boise) ID ... the NW is VERY deep at the top this year
CA (3): Buchanan CA, St. Francis CA, Newbury Park CA
SW (2-3): Arapahoe CO, Battle Mountain CO and maybe Cherry Creek CO (they were just off this group at their state meet)

Tier 3 (380-425 points):
SE (2+): Loudoun Valley VA, Pine Crest FL (and maybe Green Hope NC)
MW (4+): East Grand Rapids MI, Downers Grove South IL, Naperville North IL, Ann Arbor Pioneer MI (and maybe Yorkville IL)
HL (1): Edina MN
... and maybe some NW/SW/CA teams that aren't looking like Top-4 regional teams

Tier 4 (440-480 points):
HL (2+): Muskego WI, Wayzata MN, and maybe St. Michael-Albertville MN
SO (2+): Southlake Carroll TX, Prosper TX, and maybe Kingwood/Vandegrift/Coppel
NE (2): North Allegheny PA, Ridgewood NJ
NY (1+): East Aurora NY
... and maybe some other NW/SW/CA/MW/SE/NY teams that aren't looking like they'll make NXN

Interesting that all of the top potential At-Large teams on the girls side are in the West (I don't think the story will be the same on the boys side, as a quick look suggests the Northeast is looking pretty solid this year and the Midwest is always a tough region)... but there haven't really been a third team from the NY to pop up, the SE/NE/SO teams aren't all that strong, the top Illinois teams have been beaten convincingly by SW teams outside the region's projected AQ squads, and the MW #3 team beat all the HL Top-4 teams, so unless someone comes out of the woodwork it's going to be a quartet of teams west of Texas that make the cut. Smart money, then, would probably be on the 4 teams non-AQ teams from the NW/SW/CA that finish closest to the top 2 at their regional meets -- likely at least one from each region, with the most competitive #4 earning the last spot.

note: for what it's worth I also checked the latest Dyestat national rankings (I would have also looked at milesplit for additional comparison, but those rankings are behind a paywall... *sigh*... way to promote the sport, guys...), but they are a bit out of date (Oct. 24) and are probably going to be updated this week which would include the first major round of State meets and the return of Allie Janke to North Central's lineup, all of which should be pretty favorable to the NW/SW regions. The main difference between what I have and what Dyestat has, beyond taking into account those two key points, is that they have remained higher on the top two Illinois teams than I have despite the results of Griak (Cherry Creek CO beat Naperville North IL 75-165) and Desert Twilight (Niwot CO 80, Cherokee Trail CO 97, Downers Grove South IL 123). It will be interesting to see how that changes in this week's update, though I'm guessing they won't rank Jesuit OR and Lincoln OR quite as highly as I have them until after the state meet.
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