Side note: Adjusted Enrollment (using the WIAA's adjustment for socio-economic conditions) has a 20.1% stronger correlation to Athletic Program achievement within 2A than total Enrollment would have had.
Average Points - School - Class-District (League)
Schools in bold have OPTED UP to their 2020 classification.
Schools in red are dropping from 2A to 1A
School in blue are moving up from 2A to 3A
- 597.5 - Liberty (Issaquah) - 3A-2 (KingCo)
- 488.8 - Sehome - 2A-1 (NWC)
- 445.5 - Columbia River - 2A-4 (GSHL)
- 437.8 - Selah - 2A-5 (CWAC)
- 437.5 - North Kitsap - 2A-3 (Olympic)
- 377.5 - Ellensburg - 2A-5 (CWAC)
- 335.0 - White River - 2A-3 (SPSL)
- 310.0 - Bellingham - 2A-1 (NWC)
- 308.5 - W.F. West - 2A-4 (EvCo)
- 303.8 - Ridgefield - 2A-4 (GSHL)
- 301.3 - Lynden - 2A-1 (NWC)
- 278.8 - Tumwater - 2A-4 (EvCo)
- 270.0 - Fife - 2A-3 (SPSL)
- 262.5 - Pullman - 2A-8 (GSL)
- 246.3 - Port Angeles - 2A-3 (Olympic)
- 242.5 - Olympic - 2A-3 (Olympic)
- 240.0 - Anacortes - 2A-1 (NWC)
- 233.5 - Sammamish - 2A-2 (KingCo)
- 225.5 - Burlington-Edison - 2A-1 (NWC)
- 221.8 - Sequim - 2A-3 (Olympic)
- 217.0 - Steilacoom - 2A-3 (SPSL)
- 207.5 - Archbishop Murphy - 2A-1 (WESCO)
- 188.5 - Cheney - 3A-8 (GSL)
- 173.8 - West Valley (Spokane) - 2A-8 (GSL)
- 173.0 - Washougal - 2A-4 (GSHL)
- 171.3 - Black Hills - 2A-4 (EvCo)
- 139.8 - Toppenish - 1A-5 (SCAC)
- 139.3 - Woodland - 2A-4 (GSHL)
- 130.0 - Mark Morris - 2A-4 (GSHL)
- 128.8 - Lindbergh - 2A-2 (KingCo)
- 125.0 - Hockinson - 2A-4 (GSHL)
- 121.3 - Kingston - 2A-3 (Olympic)
- 121.3 - East Valley (Yakima) - 2A-5 (CWAC)
- 112.5 - East Valley (Spokane) - 2A-8 (GSL)
- 108.0 - Clarkston - 2A-8 (GSL)
- 105.0 - Othello - 2A-5 (CWAC)
- 101.3 - Ephrata - 2A-5 (CWAC)
- 101.3 - Franklin Pierce - 2A-3 (SPSL)
- 97.5 - Orting - 2A-3 (SPSL)
- 90.0 - Cedarcrest - 2A-1 (WESCO)
- 87.5 - Highline - 2A-2 (KingCo)
- 79.3 - Mountlake Terrace - 3A-1 (WESCO)
- 65.5 - Renton - 2A-2 (KingCo)
- 62.5 - R.A. Long - 2A-4 (GSHL)
- 61.8 - Sedro-Woolley - 2A-1 (NWC)
- 60.0 - Washington - 2A-3 (SPSL)
- 58.8 - Prosser - 2A-5 (CWAC)
- 57.5 - Foster - 2A-2 (KingCo)
- 57.5 - Aberdeen - 2A-4 (EvCo)
- 52.8 - River Ridge - 3A-3 (SSL)
- 47.5 - Foss - 2A-3 (SPSL)
- 45.0 - Wapato - 1A-5 (SCAC)
- 43.8 - Eatonville - 1A-4 (EvCo)
- 40.0 - Centralia - 2A-4 (EvCo)
- 40.0 - Lakewood - 2A-1 (NWC)
- 28.5 - Bremerton - 2A-3 (Olympic)
- 27.5 - Quincy - 1A-6 (CTL)
- 22.5 - Blaine - 1A-1 (NWC)
- 20.0 - Grandview - 2A-5 (CWAC)
- 17.5 - North Mason - 2A-3 (Olympic)
- 15.0 - Clover Park - 2A-3 (SPSL)
- 5.0 - Tyee - 2A-2 (KingCo)
- 2.5 - Granite Falls - 1A-1 (NWC)
- 0.0 - Evergreen (Seattle) - 2A-2 (KingCo)
- 0.0 - Rochester - 2A-4 (EvCo)
... 5 of the 6 schools dropping to 1A were in the bottom 14, with 4 due to the socio-economic adjustment plus another that successfully petitioned down (and also is effected by the socio-economic adjustment). The sixth school that is dropping to 1A, Toppenish, is also due to the adjustment factor but they were a mid-pack program sitting at #27. Of the 4 teams moving up to 3A, two were among the top 25 of the classification (#1 Liberty-Issaquah and #23 Cheney).
As a whole, the districts in the Eastern half of the state were hit pretty hard. All but one of the teams dropping were in the CWAC, and one of the four teams moving up was from the GNL. However, reinforcements are arriving in the form of two 3A GSL teams dropping down to join the fold: Shadle Park and Rogers (Spokane). As the league formerly known as the GNL (now merging with the GSL) is finally going to have parity in numbers with the CWAC, hopefully that means no more unfair state qualification process in the Eastern Regional (unless they decline to combine for state qualification purposes, as the CWAC would still get 2 spots while the GSL could end up with anywhere from 1 to 1.5 to 2 depending on whether D2 qualifies on it's own or combines with D1 or D3).
One important point to mention is exemplified here ... at the 2A level, in most years and most sports it is the top 26 programs that are pretty dominant. In specific years or specific sports, there are other programs that rise towards the top, but for all-around athletic excellence 2A has a fairly clear delineation (#26 Black Hills averaged 171.25 points over the last 4 years, while #27 Toppenish at 139.75 drops to 1A and #28 Woodland averaged 139.25 points -- or nearly a quarter less). This is predictable given the size range of the schools: 38 of the 65 schools in 2A over the last 4 years had (adjusted) enrollments over 610 while 27 were under 595; 24 of the top 26 teams were from the 38 largest schools and only 2 of the smallest 27 cracked through (private school Archbishop Murphy and Anacortes which has an enrollment of 573). No other classification had such a clearly defined disparity: 2A's split was more than a 20% difference (Black Hills scored 22.5% more points than Toppenish), while 3A's biggest split is 14.8% between #40 Lakes and #41 Squalicum, and 4A's biggest split is 14.6% between #46 Inglemoor and #47 North Creek. Enrollment doesn't remotely describe the 4A split (10 of the 20 schools smaller than Inglemoor outscored them), nor does it in 3A (11 of the 27 schools smaller than Lakes outscored them).
The reason for this discrepancy should be obvious: that's roughly the point at which programs can consistently field not only competitive varsity programs but also JV and C-squad programs in most if not all sports with the realistic hopes of those JV and C-squads being remotely competitive on any consistent basis (note: smaller schools can also sometimes accomplish this with good coaching, especially in sports like XC, but it becomes much harder to do it across all sports and have good coaches in all sports to get to that point simply because it inevitably becomes a numbers game).
Not only that competitive JV+C-Squad factor, but given how few schools tend to be in that 580-640 range, it makes it the perfect cut-off for a classification - just as it used to be when there were only 5 classifications in Washington... and, by the way, it is possible to get pretty reasonable sized classifications while dropping from 6 back to 5 (or even 4).
As a whole, the districts in the Eastern half of the state were hit pretty hard. All but one of the teams dropping were in the CWAC, and one of the four teams moving up was from the GNL. However, reinforcements are arriving in the form of two 3A GSL teams dropping down to join the fold: Shadle Park and Rogers (Spokane). As the league formerly known as the GNL (now merging with the GSL) is finally going to have parity in numbers with the CWAC, hopefully that means no more unfair state qualification process in the Eastern Regional (unless they decline to combine for state qualification purposes, as the CWAC would still get 2 spots while the GSL could end up with anywhere from 1 to 1.5 to 2 depending on whether D2 qualifies on it's own or combines with D1 or D3).
One important point to mention is exemplified here ... at the 2A level, in most years and most sports it is the top 26 programs that are pretty dominant. In specific years or specific sports, there are other programs that rise towards the top, but for all-around athletic excellence 2A has a fairly clear delineation (#26 Black Hills averaged 171.25 points over the last 4 years, while #27 Toppenish at 139.75 drops to 1A and #28 Woodland averaged 139.25 points -- or nearly a quarter less). This is predictable given the size range of the schools: 38 of the 65 schools in 2A over the last 4 years had (adjusted) enrollments over 610 while 27 were under 595; 24 of the top 26 teams were from the 38 largest schools and only 2 of the smallest 27 cracked through (private school Archbishop Murphy and Anacortes which has an enrollment of 573). No other classification had such a clearly defined disparity: 2A's split was more than a 20% difference (Black Hills scored 22.5% more points than Toppenish), while 3A's biggest split is 14.8% between #40 Lakes and #41 Squalicum, and 4A's biggest split is 14.6% between #46 Inglemoor and #47 North Creek. Enrollment doesn't remotely describe the 4A split (10 of the 20 schools smaller than Inglemoor outscored them), nor does it in 3A (11 of the 27 schools smaller than Lakes outscored them).
The reason for this discrepancy should be obvious: that's roughly the point at which programs can consistently field not only competitive varsity programs but also JV and C-squad programs in most if not all sports with the realistic hopes of those JV and C-squads being remotely competitive on any consistent basis (note: smaller schools can also sometimes accomplish this with good coaching, especially in sports like XC, but it becomes much harder to do it across all sports and have good coaches in all sports to get to that point simply because it inevitably becomes a numbers game).
Not only that competitive JV+C-Squad factor, but given how few schools tend to be in that 580-640 range, it makes it the perfect cut-off for a classification - just as it used to be when there were only 5 classifications in Washington... and, by the way, it is possible to get pretty reasonable sized classifications while dropping from 6 back to 5 (or even 4).
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