WIAA Review: 3A Scholastic Cup and Realignment

Here's a series of posts looking at how the (athletic portion of the) 4-year WIAA Scholastic Cup turned out (unfortunately, without the spring sports due to COVID-19 which hurts strong track/baseball/softball programs like Holy Names Academy) and where each team is headed in terms of realignment for the next cycle.

Side note: Adjusted Enrollment (using the WIAA's adjustment for socio-economic conditions) has a 11.6% stronger correlation to Athletic Program achievement within 3A than total Enrollment would have had.

Average Points - School - Class-District (League)

Schools in bold have OPTED UP to their 2020 classification.

Schools in red are dropping from 3A to 2A

School in blue are moving up from 3A to 4A

1. 560.0 - Holy Names Academy - 3A-2 (Metro) -- score doubled to reflect All-Girls status
2. 533.0 - Kamiakin - 4A-8 (MCC)
3. 505.0 - O'Dea - 3A-2 (Metro) -- score doubled to reflect All-Boys status
4. 442.5 - Mount Spokane - 3A-8 (GSL)
5. 431.5 - Bellevue - 3A-2 (KingCo)
6. 431.0 - Gig Harbor - 3A-3 (SSL)
7. 420.0 - Mercer Island - 3A-2 (KingCo)
8. 408.8 - Lakeside (Seattle) - 3A-2 (Metro)
9. 355.0 - Garfield - 3A-2 (Metro)
   335.0 - Redmond - 4A-2 (KingCo) -- already moved to 4A in 2018
10. 310.0 - Lake Washington - 3A-2 (KingCo)
11. 288.8 - Edmonds-Woodway - 3A-1 (WESCO)
12. 267.5 - Interlake - 3A-2 (KingCo)
13. 256.3 - Snohomish - 3A-1 (WESCO)
14. 237.5 - Seattle Prep - 3A-2 (Metro)
15. 228.8 - Eastside Catholic - 3A-2 (Metro)
16. 222.8 - Capital - 3A-3 (SSL)
17. 222.5 - North Central - 3A-8 (GSL)
18. 221.3 - Prairie - 3A-4 (GSHL)
19. 212.5 - Roosevelt - 3A-2 (Metro)
20. 191.8 - Bainbridge - 3A-2 (Metro)
21. 189.8 - Yelm - 3A-3 (SSL)
22. 186.3 - Central Kitsap - 3A-3 (SSL)
23. 176.8 - Stadium - 3A-3 (PCL)
24. 175.5 - Peninsula - 3A-3 (SSL)
25. 172.8 - Lincoln (Tacoma) - 3A-3 (PCL)
26. 167.0 - Mountain View - 3A-4 (GSHL)
27. 165.0 - Arlington - 3A-1 (WESCO)
28. 163.8 - Shorecrest - 3A-1 (WESCO)
29. 163.8 - Woodrow Wilson - 3A-3 (PCL)
30. 162.5 - Kelso - 3A-4 (GSHL)
31. 156.3 - Bonney Lake - 3A-3 (PCL)
32. 153.8 - Bishop Blanchet - 3A-2 (Metro)
33. 143.8 - Bethel - 4A-3 (SPSL)
34. 137.5 - Kennewick - 3A-8 (MCC)
35. 133.8 - Southridge - 3A-8 (MCC)
36. 122.5 - Stanwood - 3A-1 (WESCO)
37. 113.8 - Evergreen (Vancouver) - 3A-4 (GSHL)
38. 113.0 - Ballard - 3A-2 (Metro)
39. 110.0 - Timberline - 3A-3 (SSL)
40. 106.3 - Lakes - 3A-3 (PCL)
41.  92.5 - Squalicum - 2A-1 (NWC)
42.  91.3 - Shorewood - 3A-1 (WESCO)
43.  89.8 - West Seattle - 3A-2 (Metro)
44.  87.5 - Ferndale - 3A-1 (NWC)
45.  86.3 - Everett - 3A-1 (WESCO)
46.  83.8 - Rainier Beach - 3A-2 (Metro)
47.  75.0 - North Thurston - 3A-3 (SSL)
48.  72.5 - Hermiston (OR) - 3A-8 (MCC) -- competed in Oregon until 2018
49.  66.0 - Lynnwood - 3A-1 (WESCO)
50.  63.8 - Marysville Pilchuck - 3A-1 (WESCO)
51.  61.8 - Ingraham - 3A-2 (Metro)
52.  57.5 - Shadle Park - 2A-8 (GSL)
53.  56.3 - Meadowdale - 3A-1 (WESCO)
54.  50.0 - Shelton - 2A-4 (EvCo)
55.  50.0 - Hudson's Bay - 2A-4 (GSHL)
56.  48.0 - Nathan Hale - 3A-2 (Metro)
57.  36.3 - Juanita - 3A-2 (KingCo)
58.  26.5 - Oak Harbor - 3A-1 (NWC)
59.  25.5 - Spanaway Lake - 3A-3 (PCL)
60.  22.5 - Marysville Getchell - 3A-1 (WESCO)
61.  17.5 - Rogers (Spokane) - 2A-8 (GSL)
62.  11.3 - Chief Sealth - 3A-2 (Metro)
63.  10.0 - Cleveland - 3A-2 (Metro)
64.  10.0 - Mount Tahoma - 3A-3 (PCL)
65.   7.5 - Franklin - 3A-2 (Metro)
66.   3.0 - Fort Vancouver - 2A-4 (GSHL)
67.   0.0 - Lincoln (Seattle) - 3A-2 (Metro) -- opened up this year

... all 6 schools dropping to 2A were outside the Top-40 of the classification, and both schools moving up to 4A were in the top half (#2 Kamiakin and #33 Bethel). 9 of the last 20 schools remaining in 3A are opting up including 7 members of the Metro League.

Opting-Up Summary:

The Metro League continues to opt-up as a group to stay a single-class league. Of the league's 18 schools, 12 (or 13 if you go by the WIAA count, although they apparently aren't factoring in O'Dea and Holy Names as single-gender schools in their spreadsheet) are opting-up from their assigned 1A or 2A classifications.

Outside of the Metro League, there are only a handful of schools opting up: Lincoln (Tacoma) is the #25 program listed above, Marysville-Pilchuck is only #50/67 but they are remaining with their cross-town rival of Marysville-Getchell and the closer WESCO schools, and Mount Tahoma is opting up for... some reason? even though their fellow struggling program in Tacoma, Henry Foss, already moved down to 2A last cycle and their 2A league wouldn't make any less sense geographically.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold in future cycles, because it seems somewhat likely that 4A drops below the threshold to maintain a 16-team state tournament as early as next cycle and 3A could very well end up with the schools necessary to have a 24-team state tournament, mostly due to the WIAA passing two amendments at the same time which effected how classifications are determined and probably didn't do enough to ensure the combination of amendments will have the sustainable desired effect (refer to the 4A post for a slightly further explanation).