VERY ROUGH preliminary NXN outlook

Figured I might as well post a ROUGH outlook for NXN. I'm not including scores, because this is based on ROUGH estimates for most of the regional courses. While good enough to put them in their proper tiers, their placement within their tiers is very suspect. Also, I would like to include more than just their regional races (the below only used regional races except the Woodlands TX boys, where I added their missing #1 from his State Meet race). I will see about being more specific, and include rough scoring, if I have time later this week. EDIT: I'll just leave these as is... they aren't as well refined as my usual projections, and they aren't specific enough as to show exactly how close I think the teams are, but they give the general idea of roughly what group each team seems to belongs to (according to their races at NXR).


Boys:
1 American Fork UT
2 Bozeman MT
3 The Woodlands TX (assuming their #1 is back in their lineup)
4 Neuqua Valley IL
5 Brentwood TN
6 Great Oak CA
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7 Summit OR
8 Wayzata MN
9 Downers Grove North IL
10 Davis UT
11 Southlake Carroll TX
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12 College Park TX
13 Cathedral Catholic CA
14 Springville UT
15 Liverpool NY
16 Dana Hills CA
17 Christian Brothers Academy NJ
18 Mahomet-Seymour IL
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19 Staples CT
20 St. Xavier KY
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21 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
22 Edina MN


Notes: American Fork's trio is just too good. Going just by their regional race, it should actually be a close race (about 30-35 points separating #1 from #5), but if their #5 runs as well as they did at the Utah State meet, they should be a 20-25 point favorite over Bozeman. Great Oak is slightly closer to Summit than they are to Brentwood, but included them in the top tier because they were closer to the rest of that tier than most of the teams in the second tier. Edina and Fayetteville-Manlius are both teams that tend to run well at NXN, and normally that would mean I'd be giving them a bump within their own tier... but they are kind of sitting in a tier of their own, which makes that a bit more difficult. Would not be surprised if they both beat St. Xavier and possibly Staples based on that alone, though I think CBA and probably Mahomet-Seymour are just a little too far ahead to make up that ground in the national field. However, if they have a good race and CBA/MS don't run well, it is definitely still a possibility. The Woodlands has their best team yet, and it has been dominant throughout the year, however their NXR meet shows just how fragile a US Top-5 team can be if just a couple athletes are off (their #1 was missing, and their #4/5 finishers were a little off, but the rest of their usual Top 4 ran well and yet they still finished a bit behind mid-pack NXN teams).



Girls:
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
2 Great Oak CA
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3 Southlake Carroll TX
4 Davis CA
5 Keller TX
6 Edina MN
7 Willmar MN
8 Bozeman MT
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9 Mountain Vista CO
10 Carmel IN
11 Minooka IL
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12 Desert Vista AZ
13 Sunset OR
14 Shenendehowa NY
15 Naperville North IL
16 Palos Verdes CA
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17 Summit OR
18 North Hunterdon NJ
19 Lake Braddock VA
20 Blacksburg VA
21 Broomfield CO
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22 Souhegan NH


Notes: Yes, once again, the usual suspects at the top. Fayetteville-Manlius has the edge here even before you consider how well they typically run at NXN, but Great Oak is close enough to make things very interesting. The battle for the other podium finish, if the top two teams run well, is also looking to be very close: Davis was second last year, Southlake Carroll has had a few teams do very well in the past, Keller won the Texas 6A State title over SLC, and Edina looks very much in contention with all of those teams. Willmar and Bozeman look to be slightly behind the rest of that tier, but are closer to Edina and Keller than they are the trio in the next group, and aren't so far behind that a good day for them could make up all that difference. The two most interesting teams to me that seem to be "mid pack" teams are Desert Vista and Sunset, both for different reasons. Desert Vista is a team that looked incredible during most of the season, but came up flat at their NXR meet. They ran well at NXN a few years ago, placing a very strong fifth in their lone appearance in 2014 (and, much like this year, was a team that ran well throughout the season, had a bit of an off race at NXR, but then they came through with a great race at nationals). Similarly, Sunset is a team that exceeded expectations last time they were at NXN, when they finished seventh but within shouting distance of fifth place last year. However, their journey as well as their strengths and weaknesses this year are vastly different than Desert Vista. Sunset, who started the season slower than the other nationally elite teams, has come on very strong to close out their season. They have a trio of runners that have gone 17:40 or faster, including an NXN Top-10 returner in Ember Stratton. Desert Vista, on the other hand, has a pack that has been within 40 seconds of eachother and starts about where Sunset's trio ends. In a dual meet, Sunset would win just on the strength of their front runners, but in an invitational meet Desert Vista begins to have a stronger advantage. Due to their front running prowess and a fast improving #4, Sunset has the potential to challenge for a Top-10 finish, although just as easily could finish just outside the top 15. Desert Vista is a team that, if all their athletes run well, could destroy any projections based on their NXR race and be a strong threat to finish with the #3-8 group.




Also, as a bonus, here are the top individual ratings from NXR that I am currently using. Again, these are very rough (outside of NW, and to a lesser extent MW and SO) so take them as GENERAL ratings.... should be within 1-2 points though, and obviously some of the individuals probably weren't pushed as significantly as others at their regional races (case in point, SE Champs Brodey Hastey and Kate Murphy). One thing to note: this year's individual field was MUCH stronger at their NXR races than previous years. In advance of NXN last year, I mentioned that there were 13 girls at 150+ and 16 boys at 194+ while this year there are 24 girls at 150+ and 41 at 194+ ... of course, I assumed that all individuals who qualified for NXN chose to accept the invite instead of opt for Footlocker, which may be more true than usual considering how many of the top athletes were choosing NXN this year, but there is always the possibility that someone turned down their invite to either run FLW or focus on Footlocker Nationals instead.

Also, as an added bonus, since there are plenty out there who don't know how good a rating XXX.XX is, I'll include the 3200m/3k equivalents to provide a greater perspective on the caliber of performance they had (according to my ratings). However, keep in mind, this might not always reflect what the athletes have/will run for 3200m: some are bound to be better at longer distances or are stronger on varying surfaces (e.g. they might be considered to be "better hill runners"), or visa versa.


Team runners are in bold.

Boys Top 35 Individuals - NXR Ratings only

1. 205.64 - Casey Clinger - American Fork UT - (SW #1) - 8:47.21 / 8:11.07
2. 203.87 - David Principe - Unattached RI - (NE #1) - 8:50.38 / 8:14.02
3. 203.57 - Finn Gessner - Unattached WI - (HL #1) - 8:50.92 / 8:14.52
4. 203.57 - Seth Hirsch - Unattached NE - (HL #2) - 8:50.92 / 8:14.52
5. 200.86 - McKay Johns - American Fork UT - (SW #2) - 8:55.77 / 8:19.04
6. 200.33 - James Mwaura - Unattached WA - (NW #1) - 8:56.72 / 8:19.93
7. 200.18 - Sam Worley - Unattached TX - (SO #1) - 8:56.99 / 8:20.18
8. 199.97 - Luis Grijalva - Unattached CA - (CA #1) - 8:57.37 / 8:20.53
9. 199.85 - Reed Brown - Southlake Carroll TX - (SO #2) - 8:57.58 / 8:20.73
10. 199.82 - Daniel Bernal - Unattached TX - (SO #3) - 8:57.63 / 8:20.78
11. 199.68 - Alex Maier - Unattached TX - (SO #4) - 8:57.89 / 8:21.01
12. 199.46 - Milo Greder - Unattached NE - (HL #3) - 8:58.28 / 8:21.38
13. 199.31 - Patrick Parker - American Fork UT - (SW #3) - 8:58.55 / 8:21.63
14. 199.22 - Daniel Viegra - Unattached TX - (SO #5) - 8:58.71 / 8:21.78
15. 198.62 - Seth Eliason - Unattached MN - (HL #4) - 8:59.78 / 8:22.78
16. 198.58 - Brodey Hasty - Brentwood TN - (SE #1) - 8:59.86 / 8:22.85
17. 198.58 - Alex Miley - Unattached MN - (HL #5) - 8:59.86 / 8:22.85
18. 198.53 - Chase Equall - Bozeman MT - (NW #2) - 8:59.94 / 8:22.93
19. 198.51 - Danny Kilrea - Unattached IL - (MW #1) - 8:59.98 / 8:22.96
20. 198.48 - Joe Benson - Unattached UT - (SW #4) - 9:00.03 / 8:23.01
21. 197.84 - Micahel Vernau - Unattached CA - (CA #2) - 9:01.18 / 8:24.08
22. 197.56 - Isaac Green - Unattached CO - (SW #5) - 9:01.68 / 8:24.55
23. 197.51 - Callum Bolger - Unattached CA - (CA #3) - 9:01.77 / 8:24.63
24. 197.32 - Dylan Jacobs - Unattached IL - (MW #2) - 9:02.11 / 8:24.95
25. 197.32 - Jack Aho - Unattached IL - (MW #3) - 9:02.11 / 8:24.95
26. 197.13 - Cooper Teare - Unattached CA - (CA #4) - 9:02.45 / 8:25.26
27. 196.26 - Connor O'Neill - Unattached TX - (SO #6) - 9:04.01 / 8:26.72
28. 196.14 - Jordan Lesansee - Unattached NM - (SW #6) - 9:04.23 / 8:26.92
29. 196.06 - Ty Brownlow - Liverpool NY - (NY #1) - 9:04.37 / 8:27.05
30. 195.78 - Tanner Norman - Unattached CO - (SW #7) - 9:04.87 / 8:27.52
31. 195.70 - Dustin Horter - Unattached OH - (MW #4) - 9:05.01 / 8:27.65
32. *195.69 - William Hunsdale - The Woodlands TX - (SO #7) - 9:05.03 / 8:27.67
33. 195.52 - Erik Gonzalez - Unattached CA - (CA #5) - 9:05.34 / 8:27.95
34. 195.42 - Ben Varghese - Unattached TN - (SE #2) - 9:05.51 / 8:28.12
35. 195.35 - Nathan Lawler - Unattached NY - (NY #2) - 9:05.64 / 8:28.23

*Hunsdale's mark is actually from the Texas State meet, as he did not run at NXN-South.



Girls Top 35 Individuals - NXR Ratings only

1. 164.96 - Brie Oakley - Unattached CO - (SW #1) - 10:00.07 / 9:18.93
2. 161.24 - Claudia Lane - Unattached CA - (CA #1) - 10:06.73 / 9:25.14
3. 159.79 - Molly Born - Unattached KS - (HL #1) - 10:09.33 / 9:27.56
4. 158.03 - Allie Schadler - Unattached AZ - (SW #2) - 10:12.48 / 9:30.49
5. 158.00 - Annie Hill - Unattached MT - (NW #1) - 10:12.54 / 9:30.54
6. 157.53 - Emily Venters - Unattached KS - (HL #2) - 10:13.38 / 9:31.33
7. 157.18 - Lauren Gregory - Unattached CO - (SW #3) - 10:14.00 / 9:31.91
8. 156.76 - Lexy Halladay - Unattached ID - (NW #2) - 10:14.76 / 9:32.61
9. 156.62 - Grace Ping - Unattached UT - (SW #4) - 10:15.01 / 9:32.85
10. 156.52 - Katherine Lee - Unattached NY - (NY #1) - 10:15.19 / 9:33.01
11. 156.04 - Anna Fenske - Unattached MN - (HL #3) - 10:16.05 / 9:33.81
12. 155.51 - Ember Stratton - Sunset OR - (NW #3) - 10:17.00 / 9:34.70
13. 153.87 - Anna Gibson - Unattached WY - (NW #4) - 10:19.93 / 9:37.43
14. 153.40 - Katelynne Hart - Unattached IL - (MW #1) - 10:20.77 / 9:38.22
15. 152.84 - London Culbreath - Unattached TX - (SO #1) - 10:21.78 / 9:39.15
16. 152.65 - Kelsey Chmiel - Unattached NY - (NY #2) - 10:22.12 / 9:39.47
17. 152.55 - India Johnson - Unattached OH - (MW #2) - 10:22.30 / 9:39.64
18. 152.01 - Anne Forsyth - Unattached MI - (MW #3) - 10:23.26 / 9:40.54
19. 152.00 - Claire Walters - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - (NY #3) - 10:23.28 / 9:40.55
20. 151.90 - Tiahna Vladic - Unattached MT - (NW #5) - 10:23.46 / 9:40.72
21. 151.80 - Katherine Murphy - Lake Braddock VA - (SE #1) - 10:23.64 / 9:40.89
22. 151.53 - Karly Ackley - Unattached ND - (HL #4) - 10:24.12 / 9:41.34
23. 151.47 - Anna Sophia Keller - Unattached IL - (MW #4) - 10:24.23 / 9:41.44
24. 150.04 - Ashton Endsley - Unattached TX - (SO #2) - 10:26.79 / 9:43.82
25. 149.63 - Quinn McConnell - Unattached CO - (SW #5) - 10:27.53 / 9:44.51
26. 149.16 - Jessica Lawson - Unattached NY - (NY #4) - 10:28.37 / 9:45.29
27. 148.68 - Aislinn Devlin - Unattached PA - (NE #1) - 10:29.23 / 9:46.09
28. 148.66 - Lauren Peterson - Unattached MN - (HL #5) - 10:29.26 / 9:46.13
29. 148.19 - Taylor Roe - Unattached WA - (NW #6) - 10:30.11 / 9:46.91
30. 148.06 - Annika Sleenhof - Unattached TN - (SE #2) - 10:30.34 / 9:47.13
31. 148.02 - Abbey Santoro - Keller TX - (SO #3) - 10:30.41 / 9:47.19
32. 147.83 - Elizabeth Reneau - Unattached TX - (SO #4) - 10:30.75 / 9:47.51
33. 147.55 - Elizabeth Chittenden - Unattached CA - (CA #2) - 10:31.25 / 9:47.98
34. 147.38 - Erika Adler - Unattached CA - (CA #3) - 10:31.56 / 9:48.26
35. 147.18 - Sara Leonard - Unattached CA - (CA #4) - 10:31.91 / 9:48.59