Saturday, November 26, 2016

Quick Analysis: NXR Regions (complete)

Updated quick analysis of the NXN regional races.

Here is a ROUGH estimate of the groupings I would put each team in, to give an idea of the potential national rankings. This is ONLY considering what each team ran at their NXR Championship race, and my roughly estimated ratings (SW = 15:10, SO =15:10, NW = 15:15, HL = 14:50, MW = 14:45, CA = 14:50, SE = 14:50, NE/NY = 15:30) as well as the team scores vs. the top pack of teams in the field. Asterisk next to the regional #3/4 finishers (potential At-Large candidates).

Boys =

Tier 1.0 (4): American Fork UT, Bozeman MT, Neuqua Valley IL, Brentwood TN
Tier 1.5 (6): Great Oak CA, Summit OR, Wayzata MN, Davis UT, Southlake Carroll TX, Downers Grove North IL
Tier 2.0 (10): Cathedral Catholic CA, College Park TX, Dana Hills CA*, Claremont CA*, Springville UT*, Christian Brothers NJ, Timpanogos UT*, North Central WA*, Mahomet-Seymour IL*, The Woodlands TX*
Tier 2.5 (22): Loyola CA, Olympus UT, Lyons Township IL*, St. Xavier KY, Staples CT, El Paso Eastwood TX*, Roosevelt CA, Solon OH, Lake Zurich IL, Mountain Vista CO, Loudon Valley VA*, West Torrance CA, West Ranch CA, Dublin CA, Skyline ID*, Fayetteville-Manlius NY, Liverpool NY, Edina MN, Millard West NE*, Campolindo CA, Palmer Ridge CO, Lone Peak UT
Tier 3.0 (10): Bellarmine Prep CA, Monarch CO, Fort Wayne Carroll IN, Carmel IN, Council Rock North PA, Foothill CA, Mira Costa CA, Crater OR, Colts Neck NJ, New Town ND*

Girls =

Tier 0.5 (2): Fayetteville-Manlius NY, Great Oak CA
Tier 1.0 (5): Davis CA, Southlake Carroll TX, Keller TX, Edina MN, Willmar MN
Tier 1.5 (3): Bozeman MT, Mountain Vista CO, Carmel IN
Tier 2.0 (14): Naperville North IL, Minooka IL*, Palos Verdes CA*, Summit OR, Sunset OR*, Wayzata MN*, Desert Vista AZ, The Woodlands TX*, Shenendehowa NY, Claremont CA*, Buchanan CA, Broomfield CO*, American Fork UT*, Blacksburg VA
Tier 2.5 (12): Saugus CA, Lake Braddock VA, North Hunterdon NJ, Jackson Hole WY*, Mountain View ID, Yorkville IL*, Shoreham-Wading River NY*, Arcadia CA, Dana Hills CA, Cardinal Gibbons NC*, Battle Mountain CO, Canyon-Anaheim CA
Tier 3.0 (21): St. Francis (Sacramento) CA, Minnetonka MN*, Johnston IA, Marcus TX*, Jesuit OR, Davis UT, Prosper TX, La Costa Canyon CA, Esperanza CA, Monte Vista CA, Billings Senior MT, Washburn MN, North Rockland NY*, Aptos CA, Ventura CA, San Ramon Valley CA, San Marcos CA, Centerville OH, Saratoga Springs NY, Foothill Tech CA, Cathedral Catholic CA

Regional breakdown to date =

Boys teams (4/10/20/42/52):
CA = 0/1/4/10/13
SW = 1/2/5/8/9
MW = 1/2/4/6/8
NW = 1/2/3/4/5
SO = 0/1/4/4/4
HL = 0/1/1/3/4
SE = 1/1/1/3/3
NE = 0/0/1/2/4
NY = 0/0/0/2/2

Girls teams (2/7/10/24/36/57):
CA = 1/2/2/5/9/19
NW = 0/0/1/3/5/7
SW = 0/0/1/4/5/6
NY = 1/1/1/2/3/5
SO = 0/2/2/3/3/5
HL = 0/2/2/3/3/5
MW = 0/0/1/3/4/4
SE = 0/0/0/1/3/3
NE = 0/0/0/0/1/1

UPDATE: At-Large teams have been announced, so we have our boys and girls fields set.

Boys At-Large Teams Invited: Dana Hills CA, Mahomet-Seymour IL, Springville UT, The Woodlands TX

Assessment: They were all #3 regional teams, and all among the "Tier 2.0" (#11-20) teams. Other T2 teams that might have just missed out: Claremont CA, North Central WA, Timpanogos UT.

Girls At-Large Teams Invited: Broomfield CO, Minooka IL, Palos Verdes CA, Sunset OR

Assessment: Again, all were #3 regional teams, and all among the "Tier 2.0" (#11-24) teams. Other T2 teams that might have just missed out: American Fork UT, Claremont CA, The Woodlands TX, Wayzata MN

Note: At some point, I might try to go back and get more specific ratings on some of these regions to yield a more precise ranking, but probably not until after NXN. I'm confident the tiers should essentially stay the same, with the possibility of some teams on the edges of their tiers moving slightly up/down with a more thorough review.

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