Saturday, December 3, 2016

NXN: Quick post-race thoughts

Just a couple quick post-race thoughts as I look through the results...

Seems I overestimated the South, Heartland and California races to various degrees. Also, Summit OR continues to run poorly at Nationals after stepping up big time at NXR, as they seemingly do every year...

First guess is that the girls NXN race is probably going to end up around 200.0 = 15:35. Boys probably around 15:45-15:48.

Brie Oakley: WOW. What an incredible performance by her. Probably looking at a 169 or 170 rating from me.

Casey Clinger: First multiple time boys champion. Took control of the race, looks like about a 205 or 206 rating from me.

Girls (Team) MVP: Sophie Ryan (FM). Had a huge day, going from #5 at NXR to their #2, and rating-wise going from about a 135 to a 147. If there is any single reason as to how FM turned what could have been a decently competitive race into a blowout, it was her.

Boys (Team) MVP: Orrin Clark (Bozeman). Bozeman's #3-5 pack all ran better at nationals than they did at NXR, and that was the real story of the meet (for boys teams). In particular, though, was Orrin Clark (#5 at NXR, #4 at NXN), who was slowed late in the season due to a hip injury, but seemed to be at 100% at nationals. The best point of comparison is how Bozeman's pack did vs. Summit's #1 at Nationals, Scott Kinkade: at NXR, Kinkade ran 15:58.1 while Bozeman's #3-5 pack ran between 16:02.6-16:16.5; Kinkade ran a similar race at Nationals (one of only 2 boys to do so for Summit, along with their #6) by finishing in 16:31.0, but Bozeman's #3-5 pack all caught up to him, ranging from 16:28.5 to 16:36.6.

At a race like NXN, the teams that win are generally the teams that place the bulk of their runners ahead of the bigger packs. FM's Sophie Ryan moved from a projected #78 all the way up to #29, and Bozeman's Orrin Clark moved up from #109 up to #58. Nearly 50 spots improvement, most of which were team runners, means they were the biggest keys to the two winning teams performances today.

Quick note regarding American Fork: Some might view this as a disappointing performance for them (going into the race favored by 20-25 points over Bozeman, according to my ratings and assuming their #5 was back to normal). However, I think the Bozeman pack made far more difference than anyone from AF being a little off. AF's #4 might have been about 15 places behind where he should have been, but that was about it. With the final point difference being 36 points, it was clearly just Bozeman's day.


  1. As a NW reader it is nice to read your blog. You have knowledgeable insights. Hope to follow along next season as well.