Tuesday, August 21, 2012

NXN-California Pre-Season Regional Outlook

Boys Region History at NXN (2007-2011) –


2011: 183 Arcadia CA (#4), 322 Trabuco Hills CA (#14)
2010: 92 Arcadia CA (#1), 188 Dana Hills CA (#7)
2009: 238 Dana Hills CA (#6), 311 Royal CA (#15)
2008: 269 Buchanan CA (#9), 317 Dana Hills CA (#17)
2007: 261 Loyola CA (#8), 379 Dana Hills CA (#19)

At-Large Teams:

2011: 298 Golden Valley CA (#11), 380 Rancho Cucamonga CA (#19)
2010: 359 Loyola CA (#16)
2009: 325 Palos Verdes CA (#17), 373 Arcadia CA (#20)
2008: 280 Thousand Oaks CA (#10), 309 Loyola CA (#15)
2007: 364 Murrieta Valley CA (#17)

2012 Boys Pre-Season Rankings:

1. Arcadia CA-SS – 2011 NXN Nationals fourth place squad, California Division 1 State Runner-up and CIF-Southern Section D1 Finals Champion returns three varsity runners

2. Trabuco Hills CA-SS – 2011 NXN Nationals 14th place squad, California Division 1 State Champion and CIF-Southern Section D1 Finals fourth place squad returns four of seven

3. Carlsbad CA-SDS – 2011 California Division 1 State 12th place squad and CIF-San Diego Section D1 Finals Champion returns all seven

4. Burbank CA-SS – 2011 California Division 1 State 11th place and CIF-Southern Section D1 Finals  seventh place squad returns five of seven

5. Vista Murrieta CA-SS – 2011 CIF-Southern Section D1 Finals eighth place squad returns six of seven

Honorable Mention:  Ayala CA-SS, Carlmont CA-CCS, Dana Hills CA-SS, De La Salle CA-NCS, Del Campo CA-SJS, Dos Pueblos CA-SS, Glendora CA-SS, M.L. King Jr. CA-SS, Mt. Carmel CA-SDS, Palos Verdes CA-SS, Rancho Cucamonga CA-SS, St. John Bosco CA-SS, Stockdale CA-CS


Synopsis: In what looks on paper like a battle for the ages, the scoring difference between teams #2 and #6 when I took the top 22 teams from around the state are separated by a mere seven points! And the insanity of the depth of this battle doesn’t stop there: nearly the entire “Honorable Mention” list is lurking not far behind either! The race for the California State Division 1 title and the spots to NXN this November is looking like one potentially amazing race where the slightest off day or clutch performance could be the difference between first and sixth (or worse), a trip to Portland or a team left wondering what they could have accomplished.

Note: New information regarding the addition of an incoming age-group record holder in the 3k moved Arcadia from #6 to #1 after this was originally posted, unfortunately knocking Carlmont back to the Honorable Mention category in the process.




Girls Region History at NXN (2007-2011) –


2011: 325 Saugus CA (#12), 332 La Costa Canyon CA (#13)
2010: 117 Saugus CA (#3), 326 Mira Costa CA (#14)
2009: 191 Saugus CA (#4), 367 Mira Costa CA (#17)
2008: 135 Saugus CA (#2), 262 Dana Hills CA (#11)
2007: 171 Saugus CA (#2), 337 Esperanza CA (#17)

At-Large Teams:

2011: 262 Redondo Beach CA (#10), 287 Simi Valley CA (#11)
2010: 325 Great Oak CA (#13), 354 La Costa Canyon CA (#16)
2009: 313 Corona del Mar CA (#10)

 2012 Girls Pre-Season Rankings:

1. La Costa Canyon CA-SDS – 2011 NXN Nationals 13th place squad, California Division 2 State Runner-up and CIF-San Diego Section D1 Finals Champion returns six of seven

2. Simi Valley CA-SS – 2011 NXN Nationals 11th place, California Division 2 State fourth place squad and CIF-Southern Section D2 Finals Champion returns five of seven

3. Great Oak CA-SS – 2011 California Division 1 State seventh place and CIF-Southern Section D1 Finals third place squad returns five of seven

4. Vista del Lago CA-SJS – 2011 California Division 3 State Runner-up and CIF-Sac-Joaquin Section D3 Finals Champion returns their entire top five

5. San Clemente CA-SS – 2011 California Division 1 State Champion and CIF-Southern Section D1 Finals Champion returns five of seven

Honorable Mention:  Acalanes CA-NCS, Aptos CA-CCS, Campolindo CA-NCS, Canyon-Anaheim CA-SS, Dana Hills CA-SS, JSerra CA-SS, Marina CA-SS, Palos Verdes CA-SS, Rancho Bernardo CA-SDS, San Lorenzo Valley CA-CCS, Saugus CA-SS, St. Francis CA-SJS, Tesoro CA-SS, Ventura CA-SS


Synopsis: With the probable event of Simi Valley moving back to Division 1 this fall, the focus of the state follows as last year it was the top four teams from Division 2 that made it to nationals and all finished in the top 15. This year, that gives Division 1 the bulk of the top teams in the state including three of the top five teams in this list while Division 2 (La Costa Canyon) and Division 3 (Vista del Lago) have one apiece. California is not short on teams that could break into the fray, though, as you can see by the extensive “Honorable Mention” list above. Most notable, perhaps, is the program that has ruled the state since 2006 (Saugus), or maybe the defending California State Division 3 Champion that returns six of their top seven from last year (Palos Verdes).


  1. Carlmont returns 6 of 7 only losing their 4th man after placing 10th. That is better Burbank and just as good as Carlsbad.

  2. Yes, Carlmont is a very good team -- as I mentioned in the notes, they were the #5 team until I got the news about Arcadia's incoming freshman star, which moved them back to #6.

    For what it's worth... the new scores taking Arcadia's frosh into account have Arcadia at 170 points, Trabuco Hills/Carlsbad/Burbank all within a point (183-184), Vista Murrieta at 187, and Carlsmont at 189. Obviously a VERY close group of teams (as was meant to be described in the synopsis).

  3. Saugus should be top 5 based on history alone for girls. Simi Valley moving to D 1 really changes things up for sure.

  4. Saugus has proved over and over again they can replace their runners and still be a state title contender. Until beaten at the state finals, Saugus is easily my #1.

  5. Watch out for Hart high school boys out of newhall who placed 7th at D2 state. They return 4 of 7 and are an up and coming young team who may challenge loyola for the state title this year

  6. RB girl just upset LCC this past weekend. Vast improvement by their Sophomores and a strong new freshman who just broke their top 5. They returned everyone from a year ago and have twin Juniors who are now up near LCC's best. They run 12 deep now. LCC should still be tops. However RB is right there.