Monday, August 1, 2016

Back at it? Not really, but here's an update

Hello, World! Been a while since I posted here, apparently even neglecting to post my NXN Nationals ratings. Sorry about that part.

I don't plan on posting that much this year - at the moment, I plan on posting even less than last year, which wasn't all that much. However, I might be posting a little bit with regards to Northwest stuff as I find the time. My main purpose is probably to help identify teams that SHOULD (in my opinion) at least strongly consider going to NXN Northwest at the end of the year. I know there are always going to be cases out there of teams not thinking they are good enough (even if they win their state meet in dominant fashion, as was the case with an NXN Nationals qualifier a few years ago!), so I want to start building awareness of just how teams MIGHT compare.

To that end, here's a long-overdue update...

I went back over the post-season results from last year to re-assess my ratings. Here are the updates (reminder: the times posted represent the 200.0 mark), along with a comparison to see where I was off (hint: Montana, being so isolated, was a bit off... and Oregon was a bit overrated as well). Alaska and Hawaii, as they didn't have hardly any athletes at NXR, isn't included in the following.

I also am including statistical references for any of you who might be more mathematically inclined.

StDev = Non-outlier Standard Deviation (s) divided by the median estimate, to show the range (consistency) of the non-outliers
Athletes = The # of non-outlier athletes / # of athletes that competed at both State and NXR
State Athletes = # of athletes at each state meet (regardless of if they attended NXR or not)
% at NXR = The participation % of State qualifying athletes that competed at NXR

My apologies, in advance, for poor formatting.

STATE | New | Prior | % Difference | St.Dev | Athletes | State | % at NXR

ID | 15:10.41 | 15:11 | -0.06% | 1.31% | 129 / 194 | 803 | 24.16%
MT | 14:19.33 | 14:06 | +1.55% | 1.18% |   53 / 83 | 1044 | 7.95%
OR | 14:57.14 | 15:06 | -0.99% | 0.99% | 116 / 195 | 897 | 21.74%
WA | 14:45.00 | 14:49 | -0.45% | 1.17% | 128 / 203 | 1349 | 15.05%
WY | 15:05.63 |  N/A  |   N/A   | 0.66% |   37 / 68 | 445 | 15.28%

Also, for reference sake, my ratings for the national series meets:
NXR and NXN ended up at 200.0 = 15:15.66 and 15:06.28.
FLW and FLN ended up at 200.0 = 15:29.63 and 15:17.94

Anyways, that's all for today. Maybe some more to follow in the next week or so.

Addendum: BTW, here is a look at the % of varsity athletes that qualify for the state meet on a state-by-state basis (in the NW):

Boys =

Alaska: 26.70% (107 schools, 200 runners at the State Meet)
Hawai'i: 28.87% (97 schools, 196 runners at the State Meet)
Idaho: 39.22% (157 schools, 431 runners at the State Meet)
Montana: 44.77% (179 schools, 561 runners at the State Meet)
Oregon: 22.74% (289 schools, 460 runners at the State Meet)
Washington: 26.23% (390 schools, 716 runners at the State Meet)
Wyoming: 47.83% (69 schools, 231 runners at the State Meet)

Girls =

Alaska: 26.44% (107 schools, 198 runners)
Hawai'i: 29.31% (97 schools, 199 runners)
Idaho: 33.85% (157 schools, 372 runners)
Montana: 38.55% (179 schools, 483 runners)
Oregon: 21.60% (289 schools, 437 runners)
Washington: 23.19% (390 schools, 633 runners)
Wyoming: 44.31% (69 schools, 214 runners)


Montana and Wyoming both have ALL-INCLUSIVE state meets, meaning EVERY school sends a team (no need to qualify). At least, that is the case in the larger divisions, but I believe that also holds true for smaller schools.

Washington has the same qualifying process for both genders and all classes with two exceptions: the B divisions are combined and also only has half the amount of girls qualify (small schools, fewer full teams). It works out to 25% of teams for 1A-4A and 12% for B boys compared to 6% for B girls. For individuals, you can qualify for state as long as you finish among the top X individuals, where X = 5 times the amount of team allocations (so the top ~18% except for Class B, which is 8.5% for guys and 4.5% for girls).

Idaho has the same qualifying procedure for both genders and all classes with only one exceptions (to my knowledge): 11 teams on both sides at state in all classes, and there are 21-24 schools per division except for 1A, which has about 70 schools. For individuals, you can qualify for state as long by finishing among the top third of the competitors (e.g. the top 33%).

Oregon has a different amount of qualifiers depending on classification: 4A, 5A and 6A send just over 1/3 of the schools to state, while 1A-3A is combined into one division and send only 10% of the schools to state. For individuals, you can qualify for state as long as you finish among the top 10 athletes in 6A (top 15-20% depending on the league), top 7 athletes in 5A (top 12-25% depending on the league), top 5 athletes in 4A (top 12-18% depending on the league), and top 5 athletes in 1A-3A (a very small fraction if all schools had full teams).

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