NXN Northwest Outlook

After looking at the Washington State meet, I got curious as to how the region was shaping up (I haven't been paying much attention this year). This is a very quick and rough estimate... not sure if I'll look much deeper.


Northwest Girls Tier Rankings (based STRICTLY on the state meets; alphabetical order within the tiers):

Tier 1.0 (3): Bozeman MT, Jesuit OR, North Central WA

Tier 1.5 (7): Boise ID, Camas WA, Eagle ID, Lewis & Clark WA, Mountain View ID, Summit OR, Sunset OR

Tier 2.0 (5): Billings Senior MT, Cheyenne Central WY, Edmonds-Woodway WA, Hellgate MT, Issaquah WA

Tier 3.0 (8): Laramie WY, Lincoln OR, Madison ID, Skyline ID, Skyview WA, St. Mary's Academy OR, Tahoma WA, Twin Falls ID





Here is the Northwest Boys Tier Rankings (same format as the girls above)

Tier 1.0 (5): Central Valley WA, Crater OR, Jesuit OR, Kamiakin WA, Lewis & Clark WA

Tier 1.5 (6): Bellarmine Prep WA, Bozeman MT, Camas WA, Eisenhower WA, Interlake WA, North Central WA

Tier 2.0 (6): Ashland OR, Edmonds-Woodway WA, Gig Harbor WA, Issaquah WA, Rocky Mountain ID, Tahoma WA

Tier 3.0 (13): Bainbridge WA, Ballard WA, Central Catholic OR, Franklin OR, Glacier Peak WA, Henry Jackson WA, Idaho Falls ID, Laramie WY, Mountain View ID, Redmond WA, Richland WA, Sehome WA, Sugar-Salem ID


Notes:

This is looking like a strong year again for the Northwest girls, although I have no idea what other regions have been doing so I don't know what it means for potential At-Large bids (aside from the Colorado girls looking VERY impressive). It might be worth noting that the difference between Bozeman and the team currently ranked as California's #2 (Claremont) was razor thin at Bob Firman, and if the top 3 at NXN-NW are as close as they look to me, that could mean the NW is in the running for an At-Large for the second year in a row (Sunset earning a spot and finishing #11 last year). Speaking of Sunset, I don't know the status of Ember Stratton (heard she is sidelined with patellar tendinitis), but IF she was healthy Sunset would jump straight to the Tier 1 group as well.

On the boys side, I think the defending NXN National Champions (Bozeman MT) are better than this would suggest. They had a great race at Bob Firman earlier in the year, and on the power merge at Bob Firman were only 10 points behind Central Valley (150-160). It is also worth noting that Montana moved up from 3 miles to 5k this year, and so all of the above is based on rougher estimates than usual (no prior year data to directly compare to)... though when looking at runners and teams, they seem to fit in just about where I would have thought.

Speaking of, here are the top ROUGH speed ratings for individuals from the state meets around the NW:


Girls Top-40 State Championship ratings:

1. 155 - Camila Noe, 12 - Bozeman MT - 17:28.0
2. 147 - Lexy Halladay, 10 - Mountain View ID - 17:50.4
3. 147 - Sydney Thorvaldson, 9 - Rawlins WY - 17:49.3
4. 145 - Mackenzie Marler, 11 - Cheyenne East WY - 17:55.4
5. 144 - Katie Thronson, 12 - Lewis and Clark WA - 17:35.0
6. 144 - Taylor Roe, 11 - Lake Stevens WA - 17:37.6
7. 143 - Makenna Schumacher, 11 - Jesuit OR - 17:45.0
8. 142 - Tiahna Vladic, 11 - Billings Senior MT - 18:05.8
9. 142 - Eve Jensen, 11 - Boise ID - 18:05.6
10. 141 - Annie Hill, 12 - Glacier MT - 18:09.5
11. 141 - Aubrey Frentheway, 12 - Cheyenne Central WY - 18:08.0
12. 141 - Kelly Makin, 12 - Sunset OR - 17:52.0
13. 140 - Alexis Kebbe, 10 - Jesuit OR - 17:53.0
14. 139 - Breanna Glover, 12 - Tahoma WA - 17:52.4
15. 138 - Kristen Garcia, 12 - Sedro-Woolley WA - 17:52.9
16. 138 - Erinn Hill, 10 - North Central WA - 17:55.3
17. 137 - Abigail Whitman, 10 - Laramie WY - 18:21.2
18. 137 - Mattalyn Geddes, 10 - Twin Falls ID - 18:22.5
19. 137 - Kaylee Mitchell, 12 - Sprague OR - 18:04.0
20. 136 - Yukino Parle, 12 - Edmonds-Woodway WA - 17:59.3
21. 136 - Emma Jenkins, 12 - Camas WA - 17:59.8
22. 136 - Geneva Schlepp, 12 - Skyline WA - 18:01.3
23. 135 - Erica Simison, 12 - Eisenhower WA - 18:03.1
24. 135 - Ella Degrandpre, 11 - Hellgate MT - 18:28.3
25. 135 - Kelsey Gripekoven, 10 - Jesuit OR - 18:10.0
26. 134 - Bryn Morley, 12 - Bigfork MT - 18:30.5
27. 134 - Annika Reiss, 11 - Bellingham WA - 18:06.5
28. 134 - Alyce Harlan, 12 - Nooksack Valley WA - 18:06.9
29. 134 - Kendall Kramer, 10 - West Valley AK - 18:07.0
30. 134 - Kate Jendrezak, 10 - Eastside Catholic WA - 18:07.1
31. 133 - Rosina Machu, 9 - Boise ID - 18:31.7
32. 133 - Lizzy Dildine, 9 - Eagle ID - 18:33.4
33. 133 - Rachel Morrin, 12 - Madison ID - 18:34.1
34. 133 - Sariah Harrison, 9 - Skyline ID - 18:34.6
35. 132 - Maggie Liebich, 11 - Boise ID - 18:36.8
36. 131 - Macenna Hansen, 11 - Northwest WA - 18:15.1
37. 130 - Lucy Huelskamp, 10 - Sunset OR - 18:23.0
38. 130 - Olivia Meader-Yetter, 11 - Edmonds-Woodway WA - 18:16.7
39. 130 - Alex Moore, 10 - Bozeman MT - 18:42.6
40. 130 - Claudia Miller, 11 - Cheyenne Central WY - 18:42.0

Boys Top-55 State Championship ratings:

1. 201 - James Mwaura, 12 - Lincoln WA - 14:48.3
2. 193 - Cooper West, 12 - Charles M Russell (Great Falls) MT - 15:31.8
3. 193 - Ryan Kline, 11 - Central Valley WA - 15:11.3
4. 193 - Daniel Maton, 11 - Camas WA - 15:11.5
5. 192 - Andy Monroe, 12 - Crater OR - 15:19.0
6. 192 - Evan Holland, 10 - Ashland OR - 15:19.0
7. 191 - Nicholas Russell, 11 - Bishop Kelly ID - 15:37.7
8. 191 - AJ Chopra, 12 - Todd Beamer WA - 15:15.8
9. 191 - Nate Pendleton, 12 - Eastlake WA - 15:16.4
10. 191 - Jonas Price, 10 - Eisenhower WA - 15:16.6
11. 190 - Kenneth Rooks, 12 - College Place WA - 15:18.8
12. 190 - Jackson Pratt, 12 - Bear Lake ID - 15:41.6
13. 190 - Wil Smith, 10 - Lewis and Clark WA - 15:20.1
14. 189 - Sebastian Belkin, 11 - Bainbridge WA - 15:22.2
15. 189 - Dawson Besst, 12 - Tahoma WA - 15:22.8
16. 189 - Bradley Peloquin, 11 - Gig Harbor WA - 15:23.0
17. 188 - Duncan Hamilton Jr, 12 - Bozeman MT - 15:47.7
18. 188 - Jonah Franco, 12 - Kamiakin WA - 15:24.4
19. 188 - Riley Moore, 11 - Richland WA - 15:25.6
20. 188 - Cade Brown, 12 - Bellingham WA - 15:26.0
21. 188 - Grant Van Valkenburg, 12 - Cedarcrest WA - 15:26.7
22. 188 - Derek Tripp, 12 - Crater OR - 15:31.0
23. 188 - Jantz Tostenson, 11 - Crater OR - 15:31.0
24. 187 - Zach Erikson, 11 - Idaho Falls ID - 15:50.6
25. 187 - Luke George, 12 - Issaquah WA - 15:27.3
26. 187 - Ryan Child, 11 - Kamiakin WA - 15:28.0
27. 187 - Alex Graffunder, 12 - Union OR - 15:33.0
28. 186 - Jacob Moos, 12 - Galena AK - 15:33.0
29. 186 - Stetson Moss, 10 - Bonneville (Idaho Falls) ID - 15:51.4
30. 186 - Leonard McComas, 12 - Bozeman MT - 15:52.2
31. 186 - Markus Taylor, 12 - North Central WA - 15:30.5
32. 186 - Joe Waskom, 11 - Mt Si WA - 15:31.5
33. 186 - Caleb Olson, 11 - Hanford WA - 15:31.8
34. 185 - Alex Slenning, 12 - Wilson OR - 15:41.0
35. 185 - Albert Steiner, 12 - Laramie WY - 15:55.1
36. 185 - Ben Shaw, 12 - Riverside WA - 15:35.7
37. 185 - Cannon Leavitt, 12 - Twin Falls ID - 15:56.2
38. 185 - Isaac Mohn, 12 - O'Dea WA - 15:34.2
39. 185 - Gabe Romney, 12 - Central Valley WA - 15:33.1
40. 185 - Turlan Morlan, 12 - Gonzaga Prep WA - 15:34.0
41. 185 - Evan Peters, 11 - Central Valley WA - 15:35.7
42. 184 - Jacob Easton, 10 - University WA - 15:37.7
43. 184 - Carter Ledwith, 12 - Lewis and Clark WA - 15:38.3
44. 184 - Johan Correa, 11 - Kennewick WA - 15:38.6
45. 183 - Jerik Embleton, 12 - Marist OR - 15:46.0
46. 183 - Spencer Fischer, 12 - Bellarmine Prep WA - 15:39.1
47. 183 - Philip Henry, 12 - Laramie WY - 16:01.0
48. 183 - Dante Paszkeicz, 12 - Interlake WA - 15:41.0
49. 182 - Tim Stevens, 11 - Union OR - 15:48.0
50. 182 - Zane Fodge, 11 - McMinnville OR - 15:48.0
51. 182 - Quincy Norman, 10 - Forest Grove OR - 15:48.0
52. 182 - Joshua Schumacher, 12 - Jesuit OR - 15:48.0
53. 182 - Alfonso Cuevas, 11 - Eisenhower WA - 15:43.5
54. 182 - Isaac Schmidt, 12 - Hellgate MT - 16:05.8
55. 182 - Brennan Anderson, 12 - Sugar-Salem ID - 16:04.1