Assessing Potential Bias

What states/regions have outperformed or underperformed compared to my projections the last couple of years?

First, for a valid look into this topic, you have to consider that there are some teams that simply run very well (or very poorly) at NXN. To this end, I took out any outliers by comparing how teams scored vs. projections from both myself and Meylan. If both Meylan and I were off (in either direction) by 25% or more, I considered those as outliers. That ended up with 14 outliers which you can see at the bottom of this post. Of the remaining 74 teams, I used a simple criteria of average score vs. average projected score.

Quick summary: There was one region that I have apparently overestimated (the South), and I probably underestimated the California girls in 2013. Two other regions were harder to read, and I think the simplest explanation is that both Meylan and I have underestimated one of those regions (the Heartland), and that the Northeast we have both overestimated simply because of a couple teams running a little off and skewing the data. As for the Heartland, I guess it is also possible that nearly half of those teams have simply had big days (Wayzata girls 2013 and boys 2014, and Edina boys both years) since the other five teams all ran pretty close to expectations, but when almost half of the teams fall in the category of “outliers” something (in this case, our projections) is almost surely off. The Northeast is a harder read because most of the region has been very close to projections, but a couple of states (NH and PA) have been missing the mark for whatever reason.

 

Anyway, here is a pair of charts. The first one deals with average scores WITHOUT the outliers included, while the second one deals with ALL teams regardless of whether or not they appear to be outliers. Red means potentially underrated, and yellow means potentially overrated.

 

Non-Outliers Only:

Actual	Watchout	Meylan		Watchout	Meylan	#
282.10	297.80	287.30	CA	105.6%	101.8%	10
348.60	359.00	352.80	HL	103.0%	101.2%	5
260.78	263.78	254.11	MW	101.2%	97.4%	9
261.72	240.72	245.67	NE	92.0%	93.9%	18
326.38	312.25	294.38	NW	95.7%	90.2%	8
318.50	324.88	312.25	SE	102.0%	98.0%	8
373.63	330.13	404.38	SO	88.4%	108.2%	8
253.00	255.38	251.25	SW	100.9%	99.3%	8

 

Outliers Included:

Actual	Watchout	Meylan		Watchout	Meylan	#
281.55	287.73	275.27	CA	102.2%	97.8%	11
281.67	349.33	334.33	HL	124.0%	118.7%	9
280.50	273.60	264.80	MW	97.5%	94.4%	10
271.43	234.48	237.67	NE	86.4%	87.6%	21
309.89	306.22	288.56	NW	98.8%	93.1%	9
318.50	324.88	312.25	SE	102.0%	98.0%	8
392.56	329.22	406.00	SO	83.9%	103.4%	9
256.55	259.73	258.91	SW	101.2%	100.9%	11

 

 

And here is a chart including all the teams. The first number is their actual score, the second is my projection, and the third is Meylan’s. Boys on the left and Girls on the right.

2014:

111	Fayetteville-Manlius NY	171	139		70	Fayetteville-Manlius NY	82	145
159	Wayzata MN	305	260		149	Great Oak CA	217	180
178	North Central WA	258	242		173	Carmel IN	206	179
191	Liverpool NY	243	225		198	Naperville North IL	237	216
195	American Fork UT	160	144		199	Desert Vista AZ	314	330
200	Davis UT	202	193		240	Wayzata MN	256	242
224	Ventura CA	230	263		260	Blacksburg VA	259	230
251	St. Anthony's NY	229	180		272	Lewisville Hebron TX	282	375
262	Edina MN	417	418		276	La Salle Academy RI	332	308
269	Jurupa Hills CA	265	289		278	Saratoga Springs NY	201	225
271	Christian Brothers NJ	234	240		294	Saugus CA	256	310
285	Timpanogos UT	286	315		314	Palatine IL	256	220
299	Severna Park MD	332	340		337	Camas WA	341	295
302	Daniel Boone TN	314	350		342	Willmar MN	355	390
328	Sandburg IL	288	237		347	Davis UT	350	335
363	Carmel IN	301	330		360	Coe-Brown Academy NH	296	322
368	Summit OR	322	331		372	Unionville PA	266	302
372	La Salle Academy RI	205	179		380	Shenendehowa NY	300	323
384	Southlake Carroll TX	313	394		383	Green Hope NC	291	336
399	Brea Olinda CA	322	400		390	Coeur d'Alene ID	364	375
409	Sioux Falls Lincoln SD	392	392		427	Lewisville Marcus TX	314	389
544	The Woodlands TX	322	419		442	American Fork UT	287	295

 

2013:

111	Gig Harbor WA	173	140		108	Wayzata MN	221	202
139	Christian Brothers NJ	172	139		120	Fayetteville-Manlius NY	128	135
174	Brentwood TN	234	230		157	Davis UT	213	213
216	Fayetteville-Manlius NY	139	145		182	Carmel IN	203	200
225	Carmel IN	276	288		211	Monarch CO	215	232
228	St. Xavier OH	251	262		212	Fort Collins CO	205	212
230	American Fork UT	226	199		214	Unionville PA	197	201
231	North Central WA	240	219		276	Great Oak CA	187	155
255	Arcadia CA	234	190		277	Simi Valley CA	362	285
263	Edina MN	406	365		278	Bozeman MT	278	238
299	Northport NY	271	289		279	Pennsbury PA	222	271
301	WC Henderson PA	274	287		282	Davis Senior CA	368	332
303	Severna Park MD	338	314		336	Naperville North IL	356	355
308	Southlake Carroll TX	269	385		352	New Braunfels TX	333	372
322	Wayzata MN	377	341		373	Saratoga Springs NY	370	365
325	Madera South CA	363	298		376	Assumption KY	389	327
344	Davis UT	399	380		398	Southlake Carroll TX	315	385
347	Dana Hills CA	361	326		426	Coe-Brown Academy NH	345	326
375	Central Catholic OR	346	337		430	East Ridge MN	415	399
401	Liverpool NY	247	245		433	The Woodlands TX	372	425
415	Lewisville Hebron TX	443	510		451	Blacksburg VA	442	371
458	Hinsdale Central IL	362	361		521	Bellarmine Prep WA	434	420

 

Team Outliers the last 2 years at NXN =

 

2014 Boys

Exceeded (3): Wayzata MN, North Central WA, Edina MN

Fell short (2): La Salle Academy RI, The Woodlands TX

 

2014 Girls

Exceeded (1): Desert Vista AZ

Fell short (1): American Fork UT

 

2013 Boys

Exceeded (1): Edina MN

Fell short (3): Fayetteville-Manlius NY, Liverpool NY, Hinsdale Central IL

 

2013 Girls

Exceeded (2): Wayzata MN, Davis UT

Fell short (1): Great Oak CA

 

 

Pre-Season 2015 OR 5A/4A Girls Rankings

Continuing the look at my Oregon Rankings, next up is the 5A and 4A Girls. Unlike Washington, I can’t include more than one or two incoming freshmen because it’s much less clear where those athletes are headed, and for the girls rankings that is a big deal (freshmen impacting the girls varsity team isn’t very uncommon at all, unlike the boys where strong teams generally don’t rely on freshmen to score points). A reminder, I will specify where they finished at State XC last year (if they qualified).

With that limitation in mind, take these lists with an even bigger grain of salt than usual.

 

First, let’s take a look at the 5A Girls

 

5A Top 5 Teams:

1.       Summit (#1 in 2014 with 26 points)

2.       Mountain View (#2 in 2014 with 75 points)

3.       Crescent Valley (#5 in 2014 with 154 points)

4.       Hood River Valley (#8 in 2014 with 188 points)

5.       Corvallis (#3 in 2014 with 111 points)

 

5A Top 15 Individuals:

1.       Olivia Brooks, Summit

2.       McKenna Henke, Crescent Valley

3.       Hannah Tobiason, Summit

4.       Jordan Monroe, Crater

5.       Maddie Fuhrman, Silverton

6.       Rachel Khaw, Liberty

7.       Sage Hassell, Mountain View

8.       Taylor Vandenborn, Summit

9.       Kelsey Washenberger, Summit

10.   Delaney Clem, Pendleton

11.   Ciara Jones, Mountain View

12.   Madison Leapaldt, Mountain View

13.   Emily Morin, The Dalles

14.   Hope Powell, Marist

15.   Abby McBeth, Central

 

And now, here is the 4A Girls Rankings

 

4A Top 5 Teams:

1.       Molalla (#2 in 2014 with 106 points)

2.       Henley (#10 in 2014 with 232 points)

3.       North Bend (#4 in 2014 with 115 points)

4.       Philomath (#5 in 2014 with 141 points)

5.       Hidden Valley (DNQ in 2014)

 

4A Top 15 Individuals:

1.       Lexi Healy, Henley

2.       Emma Amundsen, Phoenix

3.       Danielle Jantzer, Phoenix

4.       Kaylee Mitchell, Astoria

5.       Linnaea Kavulich, Scappoose

6.       Celie Mans, Siuslaw

7.       Perrin Xthona, Yamhill-Carlton

8.       Meaghan Alba, Philomath

9.       Amanda Clarizio, Molalla

10.   Shayla Potratz, Phoenix

11.   Gabby Hobson, North Bend

12.   Heather Keniry, La Grande

13.   Josie Smith, Seaside

14.   Aimee Bruner, Henley

15.   Zaruba Anderson, Hidden Valley

 

Quick notes

Just a quick note on the girls rankings:

I slightly adjusted the girls team rankings I had previously posted because I decided to put a little more emphasis on program history than I did for the boys. That didn't change many rankings, though there were about 4 or 5 teams that moved up a spot because of it. Also, I adjusted the Washington Girls 2A rankings due to new information about an incoming freshman.

I'm finishing up the Oregon 4A/5A Girls Rankings today, so they'll get posted tomorrow, and after that I'll spend a couple days posting the All-Class rankings for Washington and Oregon.

Beyond that, I'll either take a look at rankings for major easy-to-do states such as California/Michigan/Illinois/Ohio, or maybe try to do the rest of the Northwest and get those regional rankings up. Unfortunately, I don't have my altitude adjustment worksheet anymore, and Montana doesn't have all their track results in a single spot (or at least, not as deep as I like to look), which means the rankings for that state might be more questionable (same with Hawaii if there happens to be a quality team or individual I need to look at). The lacking of altitude adjustments part also might effect the Idaho rankings, and certainly the Southwest if I get that far this year, so I might take a few days this week to try and look at altitude adjustments which will mean a longer delay before any new posts.

If there are any other states you guys want me to take a look at, or any other topics to look into, feel free to either post on here, on DyeStat, or email me (this is a google blog, which means the email address is the same as the website: WatchoutXCRankings@gmail.com) and I'll see about checking it out.

EDIT: Also, I noticed some errors in my database (duplicate athletes due to slight variations in their names), so I have updated the rankings as needed. No changes in any of the Oregon rankings, and only a few minor changes in the Washington rankings (4A Girls, 3A Boys, 2A Girls).