NXN-South Results

Auto-Qualifiers from the South region were the same as usual: Southlake Carroll TX and The Woodlands TX boys and girls swept the spots, with Carroll scoring a low 48 points in the boys race nearly 200 points ahead of The Woodlands (237). Third and fourth place boys teams were Lewisville Marcus TX (263) and El Paso Eastwood TX (272). Third place girls team Kingwood TX (151) wasn’t far behind the runner-up Woodlands squad (135), with fourth place College Park TX (255) further back.

Qualifying as individuals for the boys were Robert Domanic (Hebron TX), Ryan Teel (Friendswood TX), Cameron Villarreal (Arlington Martin TX), Jacob Shiohira (Bentonville AR), and Austin Wells (San Antonio Clark TX). Girls qualifiers were Karis Jochen (College Station A&M Consolidated TX), Sandie Raines (Kingwood TX), Madie Boreman (Leander Rouse TX), Katie Jensen (College Park TX), and Alex Davis (Plainview OK).

 

Ratings for the top 20 individuals and top 4 teams:

(200.0 ~ 14:51)

Boys –

1 - Robert Domanic  - Hebron  - 15:09.13 - 193.9

2 - Joe Sansone  - Carroll XC Club  - 15:12.84 - 192.7

3 - Nate Sullivan  - Carroll XC Club  - 15:18.06 - 190.9

4 - Connor Hendrickson  - Carroll XC Club  - 15:18.22 - 190.9

5 - Ryan Teel  - Friendswood Harriers  - 15:21.21 - 189.9

6 - Cameron Villarreal  - Unattached - 15:23.92 - 189.0

7 - Jacob Shiohira  - Bentonville Cross Country Club  - 15:29.09 - 187.2

8 - Trevor Gilley  - Carroll XC Club  - 15:31.72 - 186.3

9 - Austin Wells  - Unattached - 15:32.37 - 186.1

10 - Bradley Dohner  - Unattached - 15:32.51 - 186.1

11 - Robert Uhr  - Unattached - 15:35.94 - 184.9

12 - Logan Hendrix  - Marcus  - 15:36.45 - 184.7

13 - Frank Lara  - Jesuit Track Club  - 15:38.08 - 184.2

14 - Xavier Jimenez  - Unattached - 15:46.03 - 181.5

15 - Brigham Hedges  - Woodlands XC Club  - 15:48.52 - 180.7

16 - Adam Davidson  - Woodlands XC Club  - 15:49.32 - 180.4

17 - Christian Farris  - Unattached - 15:50.45 - 180.0

18 - Zach Kirkland  - Unattached - 15:50.52 - 180.0

19 - Christopher Lowery  - Unattached - 15:58.61 - 177.3

20 - Edgar Martinez  - Paschal XC-TX  - 16:02.42 - 176.0

 

 

2 - Joe Sansone  - Carroll XC Club  - 15:12.84 - 192.7

3 - Nate Sullivan  - Carroll XC Club  - 15:18.06 - 190.9

4 - Connor Hendrickson  - Carroll XC Club  - 15:18.22 - 190.9

8 - Trevor Gilley  - Carroll XC Club  - 15:31.72 - 186.3

32 - Eli Canal  - Carroll XC Club  - 16:10.17 - 173.4

35 - Alec Garner  - Carroll XC Club  - 16:11.80 - 172.8

94 - Chase Wichman  - Carroll XC Club  - 16:40.07 - 163.3

 

15 - Brigham Hedges  - Woodlands XC Club  - 15:48.52 - 180.7

16 - Adam Davidson  - Woodlands XC Club  - 15:49.32 - 180.4

58 - Logan Emery  - Woodlands XC Club  - 16:22.24 - 169.3

71 - Rick Hawley  - Woodlands XC Club  - 16:27.65 - 167.5

80 - Craig Irvin  - Woodlands XC Club  - 16:33.80 - 165.4

128 - Hiroshi Kirby  - Woodlands XC Club  - 16:56.17 - 157.9

133 - Eric Kroon  - Woodlands XC Club  - 16:58.23 - 157.2

 

12 - Logan Hendrix  - Marcus  - 15:36.45 - 184.7

31 - Evan Durrill  - Marcus  - 16:10.02 - 173.4

62 - Luke Hendrix  - Marcus  - 16:24.62 - 168.5

77 - Jacob Babbidge  - Marcus  - 16:31.66 - 166.1

85 - Adam Steele  - Marcus  - 16:36.64 - 164.5

142 - Drew Gunther  - Marcus  - 17:02.61 - 155.7

199 - John Shirk  - Marcus  - 17:46.53 - 140.9

 

22 - Brian Casillas  - Eastwood Running Club  - 16:02.87 - 175.8

30 - Ryan Saenz  - Eastwood Running Club  - 16:09.81 - 173.5

41 - Richard Mora  - Eastwood Running Club  - 16:14.19 - 172.0

69 - Steven Rios  - Eastwood Running Club  - 16:26.94 - 167.7

118 - Stephen Wallace  - Eastwood Running Club  - 16:52.71 - 159.1

136 - Jose Silva  - Eastwood Running Club  - 16:59.97 - 156.6

147 - Caleb Buntyn  - Eastwood Running Club  - 17:03.88 - 155.3

 

Girls –

1 - Karis Jochen  - Unattached - 17:17.33 - 150.8

2 - Sandie Raines  - Kingwood XC  - 17:30.85 - 146.2

3 - Madie Boreman  - Unattached - 17:36.55 - 144.3

4 - Katie Jensen  - Park  - 17:36.69 - 144.3

5 - Alex Davis  - Unattached - 17:38.51 - 143.6

6 - Courtney Kriegshauser  - Carroll XC Club  - 17:45.79 - 141.2

7 - Megan Montgomery  - Hebron  - 17:51.39 - 139.3

8 - Madi McLellan  - The Woodlands Girls Cross-Country Club  - 18:01.70 - 135.8

9 - Jessica Prickett  - Unattached - 18:02.34 - 135.6

10 - Arin Rice  - Unattached - 18:05.40 - 134.6

11 - Elena Arriaza  - Carroll XC Club  - 18:05.55 - 134.5

12 - Paige Hofstad  - Unattached - 18:07.61 - 133.8

13 - Maggie Montoya  - Rogers XC Club  - 18:10.96 - 132.7

14 - Jocelyn Caro  - Unattached - 18:14.65 - 131.5

15 - Antigone Archer  - Carroll XC Club  - 18:16.06 - 131.0

16 - Kellee McCann  - Northwest Cross Country Club  - 18:16.43 - 130.9

17 - Maddy Reed  - Marcus  - 18:18.00 - 130.3

18 - Ashley Guidot  - The Woodlands Girls Cross-Country Club  - 18:18.46 - 130.2

19 - Shelby Chapin  - Carroll XC Club  - 18:19.56 - 129.8

20 - Silvia Leblanc  - Unattached - 18:26.16 - 127.6

 

 

6 - Courtney Kriegshauser  - Carroll XC Club  - 17:45.79 - 141.2

11 - Elena Arriaza  - Carroll XC Club  - 18:05.55 - 134.5

15 - Antigone Archer  - Carroll XC Club  - 18:16.06 - 131.0

19 - Shelby Chapin  - Carroll XC Club  - 18:19.56 - 129.8

21 - Katie Burnham  - Carroll XC Club  - 18:29.72 - 126.4

40 - Maddie Keen  - Carroll XC Club  - 19:06.24 - 114.1

65 - Taylor Ullmann  - Carroll XC Club  - 19:33.34 - 105.0

 

8 - Madi McLellan  - The Woodlands Girls Cross-Country Club  - 18:01.70 - 135.8

18 - Ashley Guidot  - The Woodlands Girls Cross-Country Club  - 18:18.46 - 130.2

34 - Grace Huryn  - The Woodlands Girls Cross-Country Club  - 19:01.60 - 115.7

39 - Abbey Piontek  - The Woodlands Girls Cross-Country Club  - 19:04.20 - 114.8

50 - Kara Zuspan  - The Woodlands Girls Cross-Country Club  - 19:11.85 - 112.2

51 - Katie Willard  - The Woodlands Girls Cross-Country Club  - 19:11.89 - 112.2

93 - Anna Lyons  - The Woodlands Girls Cross-Country Club  - 19:58.17 - 96.6

 

2 - Sandie Raines  - Kingwood XC  - 17:30.85 - 146.2

29 - Abby Guidry  - Kingwood XC  - 18:52.45 - 118.7

32 - Grace Howley  - Kingwood XC  - 18:55.10 - 117.9

44 - Megan Flanagan  - Kingwood XC  - 19:07.42 - 113.7

59 - Claire Hodges  - Kingwood XC  - 19:26.21 - 107.4

76 - Erin Gallagher  - Kingwood XC  - 19:45.36 - 100.9

104 - Olivia Thompson  - Kingwood XC  - 20:15.75 - 90.7

 

4 - Katie Jensen  - Park  - 17:36.69 - 144.3

36 - Kailey Hill  - Park  - 19:03.42 - 115.1

45 - Racquel Caviedes  - Park  - 19:07.99 - 113.5

94 - Stacie McDonald  - Park  - 19:58.48 - 96.5

100 - Emilie Lostracco  - Park  - 20:09.33 - 92.9

109 - Holly Pierce  - Park  - 20:22.72 - 88.4

121 - Ali Choi  - Park  - 20:34.12 - 84.5

NXN-MW vs. MW State meets - a statistical review

Several have been discussing how the state meet courses compared to the NXN regional courses (specifically, the Midwest and the Illiniois and Michigan state meets). I decided to contribute to the discussion by recreating the statistical analysis I do for each NXN Region meet looking at how all the athletes did compared to their state meet race.

 

For the Midwest, there were 632 runners in the championship races; I was able to identify 503 of those athletes as having run in state meets.

 

Note: For reference, I identify how fast/slow a course is by using the raw seconds of my 200.0 rating mark (e.g., if I say “200.0 ~ 15:10”, that means that my 200.0 mark is around 910 seconds). For the NXN Midwest championship races, I identified the ratings at 909.8 for boys and 917.0 for girls (I had to rate them separately because it became apparent that the girls ran notably slower than the guys).

 

Illinois vs. NXN-Midwest: I was able to identify 190 athletes that ran both races. By dividing their NXN-MW time by the course adjustment (909.8 for boys, 917.0 for girls) and multiplying by their state meet time, I came up with course adjustments for each athlete. The median rating for all these athletes were 821.48, their average was 820.65, but their standard deviation was 22.61 seconds (significant variance – there are outliers in the analysis that need to be removed). After taking out the outliers, I was left with 156 athletes.  The median rating was 822.26, average rating was 822.69, and standard deviation was 9.40 (MUCH better). I use the average rating, and therefore the course rating for Illinois State is marked at 822.7 (200.0 = 13:42.7).

 

Michigan vs. NXN-Midwest: I was able to identify only 15 runners that ran both races. Using the same process as I do for all other states, I was left with 12 runners that averaged a rating of 868.71. Ergo, Michigan’s State meet rating sits at 868.7 (200.0 = 14:28.7). That’s a difference of about 41 seconds for guys and about 48 seconds for girls. Note that with such a low sample size, the results could have easily changed if more athletes had participated, but you have to work with what happened. The standard deviation of 12.29 seconds is still solid, and the rating isn’t too far off what I’ve had Michigan at in the past (though it is faster than I had it last year for whatever reason – could very well be  that I was off, or that it ran slow last year).

 

Missouri vs. NXN-Midwest: 69 athletes to start with, ended up with 53 athletes in the end.  A 906.35 average and 907.04 median with a 10.53 standard deviation means that Missouri was rated at 200.0 = 906.4.

 

Indiana vs. NXN-Midwest: 103 athletes ended up at 76. 892.57 average and 10.11 standard deviation means 200.0 = 14:52.6.

 

Ohio vs. NXN-Midwest: 126 athletes ended up at 88. 875.13 average and 8.66 standard deviation means 200.0 = 14:35.1.

 

 

 

All of these findings matched up decently well with both what I’ve had the state meets at in previous years, and what I estimated them to be before NXN-Midwest was run. If they didn’t line up right with one, I’d probably take a closer look; if they didn’t line up with either, I’d have to take a MUCH closer look to see what it was so different… luckily, I don’t think I’ve ever had to do the latter, though there are certainly times when I have to do the former because I had notably over/underestimated a state before they were able to compete on the regional level (e.g., Montana state in the Northwest this year, NXN-Northwest showed me I had previously underrated them by a significant amount).

 

 

 

As for what that all means for how the times at each course compare, it depends completely on how fast the runner that you are comparing ran at these races.

 

For a few of quick reference charts to give an idea:

 

17:00.00 = IL Boys = 15:22.35

17:00.00 = MI Boys = 16:13.92

17:00.00 = MO Boys = 16:56.19

17:00.00 = IN Boys = 16:40.72

17:00.00 = OH Boys = 16:21.10

19:55.00 = IL Girls = 17:52.11

19:55.00 = MI Girls = 18:52.06

19:55.00 = MO Girls = 19:41.19

19:55.00 = IN Girls = 19:23.20

19:55.00 = OH Girls = 19:00.40

 

 

16:30.00 = IL Boys = 14:55.22

16:30.00 = MI Boys = 15:45.28

16:30.00 = MO Boys = 16:26.30

16:30.00 = IN Boys = 16:11.28

16:30.00 = OH Boys = 15:52.24

 

19:20.00 = IL Girls = 17:20.71

19:20.00 = MI Girls = 18:18.90

19:20.00 = MO Girls = 19:06.59

19:20.00 = IN Girls = 18:49.13

19:20.00 = OH Girls = 18:27.00

 

16:00.00 = IL Boys = 14:28.09

16:00.00 = MI Boys = 15:16.63

16:00.00 = MO Boys = 15:56.41

16:00.00 = IN Boys = 15:41.85

16:00.00 = OH Boys = 15:23.39

 

18:45.00 = IL Girls = 16:49.31

18:45.00 = MI Girls = 17:45.74

18:45.00 = MO Girls = 18:32.00

18:45.00 = IN Girls = 18:15.07

18:45.00 = OH Girls = 17:53.60

South Pre-NXN Regional Rankings

Boys –

1.       Southlake Carroll TX – Texas 5A State Champion

2.       The Woodlands TX – Texas 5A State Runner-up

3.       Bentonville AR – Arkansas 7A State Champion

4.       College Park TX – Texas 5A State third place

5.       El Paso Eastwood TX – Texas 5A State fourth place

6.       West Monroe LA – Louisiana 5A State Champion

7.       Lewisville Marcus TX – Texas 5A State fifth place

8.       Rogers AR – Arkansas 7A State Runner-up

9.       St. Paul's LA – Louisiana 5A State Runner-up

10.   Jenks OK – Oklahoma 6A State Champion

11.   Boerne Champion TX – Texas 4A State Champion

12.   Cedar Park TX – Texas 4A State Runner-up

13.   Bishop Kelley OK – Oklahoma 6A State Runner-up

14.   Plano West TX – Texas 5A State sixth place

15.   Amarillo Tascosa TX – fourth place Texas 5A Region 1

16.   Humble Kingwood TX – fourth place Texas 5A Region 2

17.   Timber Creek TX – fifth place Texas 5A Region 1

18.   Keller TX – sixth place Texas 5A Region 1

19.   Lewisville Flower Mound TX – seventh place Texas 5A Region 1

20.   Lewisville Hebron TX – eighth place Texas 5A Region 1

21.   Har-Ber AR – Arkansas 7A State third place

22.   Little Rock Catholic for Boys AR – Arkansas 7A State fourth place

23.   New Orleans Jesuit LA – Louisiana 5A State third place

24.   Del Rio TX – Texas 5A State seventh place

25.   Weslaco East TX – Texas 5A State eighth place

Girls –

1.       Southlake Carroll TX – Texas 5A State Champion

2.       Humble Kingwood TX – Texas 5A State Runner-up

3.       Lewisville Marcus TX – Texas 5A State third place

4.       The Woodlands TX – Texas 5A State fourth place

5.       Lewisville Hebron TX – Texas 5A State fifth place

6.       Lewisville Flower Mound TX – fourth place Texas 5A Region 1

7.       College Park TX – Texas 5A State sixth place

8.       Dallas Highland Park TX – Texas 4A State Champion

9.       Justin Northwest TX – fifth place Texas 5A Region 1

10.   Rogers Heritage AR – Arkansas 7A State Champion

11.   Katy TX – Texas 5A State seventh place

12.   Dominican LA – Louisiana 5A State Champion

13.   Cedar Park TX – Texas 4A State Runner-up

14.   New Braunfels TX – Texas 5A State eighth place

15.   Austin Westlake TX – fourth place Texas 5A Region 2

16.   Bentonville AR – Arkansas 7A State Runner-up

17.   Rogers AR – Arkansas 7A State third place

18.   Jenks OK – Oklahoma 6A State Champion

19.   Mustang OK – Oklahoma 6A State Runner-up

20.   Houston Cy-Fair TX – Texas 5A State ninth place

21.   Katy Seven Lakes TX – Texas 5A State tenth place

22.   Canyon TX – Texas 4A State third place

23.   Fountainebleau LA – Louisiana 5A State Runner-up

24.   Parkway LA – Louisiana 5A State third place

25.   Van Buren AR – Arkansas 7A State fourth place

 

Note: The Woodlands TX girls were without their top runner, Madi McLellan, at state… with her, they finish second at state and look like the second best team in the region.