Saturday marks the first state meet of the year: Alaska. Three regions typically dominate the top of the standings at the state meet, so I took a good look at those three regions (Regions III, IV and VI).
Region III Ratings estimate (200.0 ~ 15:16)
Boys –
1 - Levi Thomet, 10 - 16:30.98 - Kodiak - 175.4
2 - Cole Christiansen, 12 - 16:36.76 - Kodiak - 173.5
3 - Brandon Schafer, 11 - 17:02.54 - Colony - 165.0
4 - Julian McCarthy, 12 - 17:02.85 - Kodiak - 164.9
5 - Chris Osiensky, 12 - 17:07.06 - Palmer - 163.6
1 - Miles Knotek, 12 - 17:11.57 - Seward - 162.1
6 - Sean Herrmann, 11 - 17:16.54 - Palmer - 160.4
2 - Arlen Mossgrove, 12 - 17:16.69 - Glennallen - 160.4
7 - Jonah Theisen, 10 - 17:16.81 - Kenai Central - 160.4
3 - Matthew Moore, 11 - 17:18.41 - Seward - 159.8
1 - Levi Thomet, 10 - 16:30.98 - Kodiak - 175.4
2 - Cole Christiansen, 12 - 16:36.76 - Kodiak - 173.5
4 - Julian McCarthy, 12 - 17:02.85 - Kodiak - 164.9
9 - Clayton Hannah, 12 - 17:23.78 - Kodiak - 158.1
16 - Elisha Fields, 12 - 17:51.60 - Kodiak - 149.0
24 - Jon LeVan, 9 - 18:23.00 - Kodiak - 138.7
6 - Anthony Rubina, 10 - 18:36.19 - Kodiak - 134.4
3 - Brandon Schafer, 11 - 17:02.54 - Colony - 165.0
8 - Boaz Sessom, 11 - 17:23.02 - Colony - 158.3
10 - Darien Sinnett, 12 - 17:24.88 - Colony - 157.7
14 - Lyon Kopsack, 11 - 17:43.27 - Colony - 151.7
15 - Lane Reed, 10 - 17:47.31 - Colony - 150.4
17 - Kamber Lucas, 10 - 17:52.16 - Colony - 148.8
1 - Trevor Murray, 11 - 18:07.76 - Colony - 143.7
Girls –
1 - Allie Ostrander, 10 - 18:10.32 - Kenai Central - 142.8
2 - Audrey Michaelson, 12 - 19:05.10 - Colony - 124.9
3 - Mariah Burroughs, 11 - 19:09.65 - Wasilla - 123.4
1 - Claire Trujillo, 12 - 19:46.63 - Grace Christian - 111.3
4 - Peggy Mathis, 10 - 19:47.12 - Wasilla - 111.1
2 - Elle Arnold, 11 - 19:51.66 - Grace Christian - 109.6
5 - Jenna Ford, 12 - 19:59.31 - Wasilla - 107.1
6 - Hope Steffensen, 12 - 20:02.27 - Kenai Central - 106.2
7 - Makenzie Thompson, 12 - 20:02.62 - Colony - 106.0
3 - Morgan Lash, 9 - 20:05.60 - Grace Christian - 105.1
1 - Claire Trujillo, 12 - 19:46.63 - Grace Christian - 111.3
2 - Elle Arnold, 11 - 19:51.66 - Grace Christian - 109.6
3 - Morgan Lash, 9 - 20:05.60 - Grace Christian - 105.1
4 - Anna Trujillo, 12 - 20:20.16 - Grace Christian - 100.3
5 - Cheyenne Applegate, 10 - 20:39.33 - Grace Christian - 94.0
1 - Harmony Wayner, 10 - 21:14.65 - Grace Christian - 82.4
9 - Jodi Davis, 11 - 21:30.09 - Grace Christian - 77.4
3 - Mariah Burroughs, 11 - 19:09.65 - Wasilla - 123.4
4 - Peggy Mathis, 10 - 19:47.12 - Wasilla - 111.1
5 - Jenna Ford, 12 - 19:59.31 - Wasilla - 107.1
12 - Riley Burroughs, 10 - 20:40.16 - Wasilla - 93.7
15 - Mandi Ringgenberg, 12 - 21:09.05 - Wasilla - 84.3
20 - Alysha Devine, 12 - 21:22.61 - Wasilla - 79.8
3 - Amber Pell, 10 - 22:32.78 - Wasilla - 56.9
2 - Audrey Michaelson, 12 - 19:05.10 - Colony - 124.9
7 - Makenzie Thompson, 12 - 20:02.62 - Colony - 106.0
14 - Bailey Meier, 11 - 20:48.43 - Colony - 91.0
22 - Samantha Victor, 9 - 21:39.66 - Colony - 74.3
25 - Tracie Haan, 11 - 22:05.84 - Colony - 65.7
26 - Jocelyn Kopsack, 10 - 22:13.66 - Colony - 63.1
27 - Tatjana Spaic, 11 - 22:18.03 - Colony - 61.7
8 - Danielle McCormick, 10 - 20:17.21 - Soldotna - 101.3
9 - Olivia Hutchings, 9 - 20:18.66 - Soldotna - 100.8
16 - Rachel Thomas, 9 - 21:15.98 - Soldotna - 82.0
19 - Emily Werner, 9 - 21:22.38 - Soldotna - 79.9
21 - Sadie Fox, 10 - 21:33.32 - Soldotna - 76.3
23 - Hannah Pothast, 9 - 21:48.34 - Soldotna - 71.4
10 - Leah Cawthorn, 11 - 20:33.22 - Kodiak - 96.0
11 - Adriane Horn, 11 - 20:34.57 - Kodiak - 95.6
13 - Zoe Bigley, 9 - 20:45.72 - Kodiak - 91.9
18 - McKenzie Barnett, 12 - 21:22.10 - Kodiak - 80.0
24 - Sarah Ng, 12 - 21:53.88 - Kodiak - 69.6
28 - Tiffany Bolyard, 11 - 22:30.84 - Kodiak - 57.5
4 - Kari Millstein, 11 - 22:34.46 - Kodiak - 56.3
Region IV Ratings Estimate (200.0 ~ 15:20) –
Boys –
1 - John Farr, 11 - 16:58.17 - East Anchorage - 168.0
2 - Gilly Szweda-Mittelstadt, 10 - 17:00.42 - Service - 167.3
3 - Lucas Schlemme, 12 - 17:05.41 - Service - 165.7
4 - Lucas Hepler, 12 - 17:10.48 - Service - 164.0
5 - Taylor Turney, 12 - 17:13.12 - Service - 163.1
6 - David McPhetres, 11 - 17:18.53 - Chugiak - 161.4
7 - Spencer Mitton, 10 - 17:20.42 - South Anchorage - 160.8
8 - Drini Redzepi, 9 - 17:22.47 - West Anchorage - 160.1
9 - Derek Steele, 9 - 17:29.48 - South Anchorage - 157.8
10 - Ty Jordan, 9 - 17:29.79 - Chugiak - 157.7
2 - Gilly Szweda-Mittelstadt, 10 - 17:00.42 - Service - 167.3
3 - Lucas Schlemme, 12 - 17:05.41 - Service - 165.7
4 - Lucas Hepler, 12 - 17:10.48 - Service - 164.0
5 - Taylor Turney, 12 - 17:13.12 - Service - 163.1
17 - Tre Washington, 9 - 17:53.01 - Service - 150.1
21 - Garth Schulz, 12 - 18:06.25 - Service - 145.8
2 - MacKenzie Franks, 12 - 18:19.27 - Service - 141.6
8 - Drini Redzepi, 9 - 17:22.47 - West Anchorage - 160.1
11 - Larkin Lynch, 10 - 17:30.54 - West Anchorage - 157.5
12 - Max Dan, 12 - 17:44.45 - West Anchorage - 152.9
13 - Jacob Volz, 11 - 17:46.38 - West Anchorage - 152.3
14 - Peter Moma, 11 - 17:46.95 - West Anchorage - 152.1
16 - Austin Bailly, 10 - 17:49.26 - West Anchorage - 151.4
1 - Konnor Petersen, 11 - 17:58.19 - West Anchorage - 148.5
Girls –
1 - Rachel Roelle, 12 - 19:40.66 - West Anchorage - 115.0
2 - Grace Graham, 11 - 19:57.02 - East Anchorage - 109.7
3 - Hannah Stevens, 12 - 19:57.30 - Eagle River - 109.6
4 - Jenette Northey, 12 - 20:03.18 - Service - 107.7
5 - Lydia Blanchet, 10 - 20:09.76 - West Anchorage - 105.6
6 - Tsaina Mahlen, 12 - 20:15.00 - South Anchorage - 103.8
7 - Samantha Hartke, 12 - 20:27.24 - Chugiak - 99.9
8 - Megan Fink, 10 - 20:28.81 - East Anchorage - 99.3
9 - Hannah Seidl, 11 - 20:28.87 - Dimond - 99.3
10 - Aislinn Waite, 9 - 20:28.94 - Service - 99.3
1 - Rachel Roelle, 12 - 19:40.66 - West Anchorage - 115.0
5 - Lydia Blanchet, 10 - 20:09.76 - West Anchorage - 105.6
16 - Katie Weddleton, 11 - 20:55.08 - West Anchorage - 90.8
19 - JoJo Fleischman, 10 - 20:57.97 - West Anchorage - 89.8
20 - Claire Walker, 10 - 21:02.28 - West Anchorage - 88.4
21 - Madeline Boutet, 9 - 21:02.51 - West Anchorage - 88.4
1 - Camille Beaugard, 11 - 21:47.02 - West Anchorage - 73.8
2 - Grace Graham, 11 - 19:57.02 - East Anchorage - 109.7
8 - Megan Fink, 10 - 20:28.81 - East Anchorage - 99.3
11 - Acadia Graham, 9 - 20:29.40 - East Anchorage - 99.2
23 - Morgan Flynn, 9 - 21:14.75 - East Anchorage - 84.4
32 - Liz Burt, 11 - 22:16.06 - East Anchorage - 64.4
34 - Allison Abo, 12 - 22:23.41 - East Anchorage - 62.0
4 - MacKenzie Flynn, 11 - 22:29.19 - East Anchorage - 60.1
Region VI Ratings Estimate (200.0 ~ 15:31) –
Boys –
1 - Peter Noon, 12 - 16:57.20 - West Valley - 172.5
2 - Mikko Sayre, 12 - 17:09.70 - West Valley - 168.5
3 - Tristan Sayre, 10 - 17:16.10 - West Valley - 166.5
4 - Kuba Grzeda, 12 - 17:22.70 - West Valley - 164.3
5 - Sam King, 11 - 17:24.70 - Lathrop - 163.7
6 - Erich Hoefler, 11 - 17:27.40 - West Valley - 162.8
7 - Max Donaldson, 10 - 17:31.00 - West Valley - 161.7
8 - Keegan Ragan, 11 - 17:53.90 - Lathrop - 154.3
9 - Jonathan Koenig, 10 - 17:55.50 - West Valley - 153.8
10 - Joe Bue, 9 - 18:05.80 - IDEA Fairbanks - 150.5
Girls –
1 - Brooke Lizotte, 11 - 19:22.90 - Lathrop - 125.6
2 - Megan Kubichek, 10 - 20:19.10 - Lathrop - 107.5
3 - Allison Hebard, 10 - 21:39.00 - Lathrop - 81.8
4 - Julia Sherman, 12 - 21:43.30 - West Valley - 80.4
5 - Autumn Fournier, 9 - 21:49.80 - Lathrop - 78.3
6 - Sarah Lilly, 12 - 21:53.70 - West Valley - 77.1
7 - Tamara Fairbanks, 12 - 22:12.10 - West Valley - 71.2
8 - Dorothy O'Donnell, 12 - 22:21.40 - West Valley - 68.2
9 - Julia Mayer, 9 - 22:22.20 - West Valley - 67.9
10 - Ellen Acquistapace, 12 - 22:46.40 - West Valley - 60.1
Just for fun, I combined the estimates from these three regions to get an idea of what the state meet might look like… these were the top five teams, regardless of classification and including all teams with 5+ runners.
Boys –
1. West Valley (Region VI) ~ 40 points
2. Service (Region IV) ~ 90 points
3. Kodiak (Region III) ~ 90 points
4. Colony (Region III) ~ 150 points
5. West Anchorage (Region IV) ~ 170 points
Girls –
1. Grace Christian (Region III) ~ 85 points
2. Wasilla (Region III) ~ 100 points
3. West Anchorage (Region IV) ~ 135 points
4. East Anchorage (Region IV) ~ 175 points
5. Colony (Region III) ~ 185 points
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