Utah State is looking really, really strong once again. Overall All-Time course records were nearly missed in all races, in all categories (individual and team, boys and girls). And there have been some very good runners and teams in this state in the past – Luke Puskedra, the Zeigle twins, Kelsey Braithwaite, 1999 US#1 Bingham girls, once called the best team ever (until Fayetteville-Manlius showed up), and 2010 American Fork boys who seemed to have the potential to be called the best ever.
This year, it was American Fork boys and Davis girls taking the 5A titles, though all three of the biggest classes saw great teams and great runners. The 4A boys title was a barn burner between Herriman and Bonneville, with Herriman squeaking out the win via the sixth runner tie-breaker. Both teams check in as top eight teams on the course record books. The 5A boys race featured the new #2 All-Time team (American Fork) and #7 (Davis), where American Fork won with another ridiculously low score of 29-54, with a very strong showing from Riverton (#13 All Time) with 74 points. In the boys 3A race, it was Ogden checking in at #14 All Time team time to hold off Wasatch 67-97.
For individual races, Ben Saarel (Park City) showed why he should be considered among the very best in the entire nation. His time of 14:56.7 was only 2.1 seconds behind Luke Puskedra’s 2007 course record, and 10 seconds faster than the previous #2 All Time mark on the course (Josh Rohatinsky 15:07.2 in 1999... you may have heard of two of the three guys that ended up beating him that year: Dathan Ritzenhein from Michigan, Donald Sage from Illinois, and the lesser-known 2008 Olympian named Ian Dobson from Oregon). Jacob Heslington of Timpanogos continued to be the class of 4A, also getting under Rohatinsky’s mark, but Jerrell Mock (Logan) made it a close one as the final times were 15:06.9 and 15:07.8.
The girls race saw Lucy Biles (Herriman) stamp her mark as the #5 performer on the course as she ran 17:49.6, while Aimee Bryson of Cedar also squeezed into the top ten with her 17:59.6 (good for #8 on the list). Bingham’s Emily Rich just missed the cut as she sits #11 with her 18:01.8.
With all these great marks compared to years past, one would normally think “Wow, that course must have been running fast this year!” Well… guess again. Based on what these athletes have been running on other courses and what was thought possible for them coming into the season, the course seemed to run no faster than usual! The Beehive state is just having one of those (AMAZING) years, as several other states around the nation are having this year and have sometimes had in recent years as well.
For more information
on the All Time list for the state meet course, check out this post here
and the scores of the 22-team Power Merge here.
Without further ado, here are the rating estimates for the Utah State Meet.
(200.0 ~ 14:57)
Boys –
1 - Ben Saarel - Sr - Park City HS - 14:56.7 - 3A - 200.1
1 - Jacob Heslington - Sr - Timpanogos HS - 15:06.9 - 4A - 196.7
2 - Jerrell Mock - Sr - Logan HS - 15:07.8 - 4A - 196.4
1 - Kramer Morton - Jr - Alta HS - 15:13.2 - 5A - 194.6
3 - Conner Mantz - So - Sky View HS - 15:17.8 - 4A - 193.1
2 - Brayden McLelland - Sr - American Fork HS - 15:18.1 - 5A - 193.0
3 - Alex Hedquist - Sr - Davis HS - 15:21.6 - 5A - 191.8
4 - Rory Linkletter - Jr - Herriman HS - 15:23.0 - 4A - 191.3
2 - Jordon Cross - Sr - Ogden HS - 15:30.3 - 3A - 188.9
4 - Connor McMillan - Jr - American Fork HS - 15:30.7 - 5A - 188.8
2 - Brayden McLelland - Sr - American Fork HS - 15:18.1 - 5A - 193.0
4 - Connor McMillan - Jr - American Fork HS - 15:30.7 - 5A - 188.8
5 - Tyson Green - Sr - American Fork HS - 15:36.1 - 5A - 187.0
7 - Zac Jacklin - So - American Fork HS - 15:45.1 - 5A - 183.9
11 - Caleb Thompson - Jr - American Fork HS - 16:07.6 - 5A - 176.4
13 - Spencer Herzog - Jr - American Fork HS - 16:09.3 - 5A - 175.9
32 - Tyler Bell - Jr - American Fork HS - 16:41.3 - 5A - 165.2
3 - Alex Hedquist - Sr - Davis HS - 15:21.6 - 5A - 191.8
6 - Brayden Cromar - Sr - Davis HS - 15:43.2 - 5A - 184.6
12 - Skylar Williams - Jr - Davis HS - 16:08.0 - 5A - 176.3
15 - Preston Johnson - Sr - Davis HS - 16:12.7 - 5A - 174.7
18 - Hayden Hansen - Sr - Davis HS - 16:17.6 - 5A - 173.1
20 - Andrew Aposhian - Sr - Davis HS - 16:20.5 - 5A - 172.1
28 - Stokton Smith - So - Davis HS - 16:37.4 - 5A - 166.5
4 - Rory Linkletter - Jr - Herriman HS - 15:23.0 - 4A - 191.3
5 - Chuk Mitchell - Sr - Herriman HS - 15:30.7 - 4A - 188.8
14 - Connor Jones - Jr - Herriman HS - 16:04.7 - 4A - 177.4
23 - Jesse Jorgensen - Sr - Herriman HS - 16:14.3 - 4A - 174.2
27 - Jesse Drury - Sr - Herriman HS - 16:21.6 - 4A - 171.7
37 - McKay Sharp - Jr - Herriman HS - 16:39.0 - 4A - 165.9
47 - Calvin Howell - Sr - Herriman HS - 16:49.4 - 4A - 162.4
6 - Cade Perry - Sr - Bonneville HS - 15:39.1 - 4A - 186.0
12 - Jared Seachris - Sr - Bonneville HS - 16:04.2 - 4A - 177.6
15 - Colby Myers - Sr - Bonneville HS - 16:06.6 - 4A - 176.8
18 - Andy Penman - Jr - Bonneville HS - 16:11.4 - 4A - 175.2
21 - Brian Jasper - Sr - Bonneville HS - 16:13.8 - 4A - 174.4
62 - Jesse Mott - Sr - Bonneville HS - 17:02.2 - 4A - 158.2
69 - Justin Cypers - Sr - Bonneville HS - 17:09.1 - 4A - 155.9
9 - Jaydn Asay - Sr - Mountain View HS - 15:57.2 - 4A - 179.9
17 - Sam Sorensen - Jr - Mountain View HS - 16:10.3 - 4A - 175.5
31 - Gordon King - Sr - Mountain View HS - 16:28.4 - 4A - 169.5
34 - Ethan Nielsen - Sr - Mountain View HS - 16:31.9 - 4A - 168.3
35 - Trevor Patten - Jr - Mountain View HS - 16:32.7 - 4A - 168.0
48 - Alex Brown - Sr - Mountain View HS - 16:49.7 - 4A - 162.3
61 - Brandon Hatch - Jr - Mountain View HS - 17:01.5 - 4A - 158.4
8 - Brady Earley - Jr - Riverton HS - 15:56.1 - 5A - 180.3
9 - Clay Lambourne - Jr - Riverton HS - 15:57.4 - 5A - 179.8
14 - Sam Garrard - Sr - Riverton HS - 16:11.9 - 5A - 175.0
21 - Michael Bluth - Jr - Riverton HS - 16:29.9 - 5A - 169.0
22 - Sam Coleman - Jr - Riverton HS - 16:30.3 - 5A - 168.8
48 - Isaac Robertson - Sr - Riverton HS - 17:05.4 - 5A - 157.1
77 - Parker Howell - Sr - Riverton HS - 17:37.5 - 5A - 146.4
2 - Jordon Cross - Sr - Ogden HS - 15:30.3 - 3A - 188.9
10 - Mike Buckley - Jr - Ogden HS - 16:07.0 - 3A - 176.6
11 - Carson Garner - Sr - Ogden HS - 16:13.0 - 3A - 174.6
19 - Pedro DeLeon - Jr - Ogden HS - 16:29.6 - 3A - 169.1
32 - Justin Sheets - Jr - Ogden HS - 16:46.7 - 3A - 163.3
40 - Jake Mathewson - So - Ogden HS - 16:51.2 - 3A - 161.8
63 - Jerimiah Robinson - Sr - Ogden HS - 17:25.6 - 3A - 150.3
1 - Jacob Heslington - Sr - Timpanogos HS - 15:06.9 - 4A - 196.7
32 - Zane Pederson - Sr - Timpanogos HS - 16:29.7 - 4A - 169.0
33 - Mckay Mace - Jr - Timpanogos HS - 16:31.0 - 4A - 168.6
39 - Ian Berlin - Jr - Timpanogos HS - 16:44.2 - 4A - 164.2
46 - Ammon Nimmer - Jr - Timpanogos HS - 16:48.3 - 4A - 162.8
55 - Taylor Liddell - Sr - Timpanogos HS - 16:53.1 - 4A - 161.2
57 - Chase Jackman - Jr - Timpanogos HS - 16:53.7 - 4A - 161.0
Girls –
1 - Lucy Biles - So - Herriman HS - 17:49.6 - 4A - 142.3
1 - Aimee Bryson - Jr - Cedar HS - 17:59.6 - 3A - 139.0
1 - Emily Rich - Sr - Bingham HS - 18:01.8 - 5A - 138.2
2 - Sarah Feeny - Jr - Ogden HS - 18:12.7 - 3A - 134.6
2 - Miranda O'Very - So - Mountain Crest HS - 18:14.7 - 4A - 133.9
3 - Annie Orr - Sr - Park City HS - 18:16.3 - 3A - 133.4
2 - Tavia Dutson - Jr - Jordan HS - 18:17.1 - 5A - 133.1
4 - Alisse Walker - Sr - Park City HS - 18:24.8 - 3A - 130.5
3 - Ellie Child - Sr - Davis HS - 18:29.0 - 5A - 129.1
5 - Alyssa Snyder - So - Park City HS - 18:31.2 - 3A - 128.4
3 - Ellie Child - Sr - Davis HS - 18:29.0 - 5A - 129.1
7 - Shea Martinez - Sr - Davis HS - 18:45.0 - 5A - 123.8
8 - Mikell Wood - Sr - Davis HS - 18:52.6 - 5A - 121.2
11 - Ashley Tyndall - Jr - Davis HS - 18:58.5 - 5A - 119.3
16 - Joanna Boyd - Sr - Davis HS - 19:09.9 - 5A - 115.5
19 - Chelsey Johnson - Jr - Davis HS - 19:22.9 - 5A - 111.1
31 - Kami Dixon - Sr - Davis HS - 20:09.7 - 5A - 95.5
9 - Emily Orton - Jr - American Fork HS - 18:52.8 - 5A - 121.2
10 - Maddie Bench - So - American Fork HS - 18:53.9 - 5A - 120.8
12 - Sophie Baird - Fr - American Fork HS - 19:01.2 - 5A - 118.4
13 - Makayla Stepp - Jr - American Fork HS - 19:01.6 - 5A - 118.2
17 - Diane Leach - Jr - American Fork HS - 19:12.1 - 5A - 114.7
21 - Katie Cornell - Fr - American Fork HS - 19:33.8 - 5A - 107.5
23 - Lexie Green - So - American Fork HS - 19:37.6 - 5A - 106.2
3 - Annie Orr - Sr - Park City HS - 18:16.3 - 3A - 133.4
4 - Alisse Walker - Sr - Park City HS - 18:24.8 - 3A - 130.5
5 - Alyssa Snyder - So - Park City HS - 18:31.2 - 3A - 128.4
9 - Sophie McDonald - Jr - Park City HS - 19:01.5 - 3A - 118.3
16 - Emily Schmitt - Sr - Park City HS - 19:38.3 - 3A - 106.0
18 - Leah Lange - Fr - Park City HS - 19:52.2 - 3A - 101.3
19 - Summer Dvorak - So - Park City HS - 20:04.8 - 3A - 97.1
2 - Miranda O'Very - So - Mountain Crest HS - 18:14.7 - 4A - 133.9
4 - Tori Parkinson - Sr - Mountain Crest HS - 18:37.1 - 4A - 126.4
6 - Brooke Nelson - Jr - Mountain Crest HS - 18:47.3 - 4A - 123.0
10 - Kacie Labrum - Fr - Mountain Crest HS - 18:57.3 - 4A - 119.7
20 - Elizabeth Cook - Sr - Mountain Crest HS - 19:35.1 - 4A - 107.0
64 - Madison Cook - Fr - Mountain Crest HS - 20:48.7 - 4A - 82.4
76 - Kiana Moon - Jr - Mountain Crest HS - 21:05.5 - 4A - 76.8
2 - Sarah Feeny - Jr - Ogden HS - 18:12.7 - 3A - 134.6
7 - Melissa Garrett - Sr - Ogden HS - 18:55.7 - 3A - 120.2
8 - Jessica Sams - Sr - Ogden HS - 18:58.2 - 3A - 119.4
11 - Maranda Garrett - So - Ogden HS - 19:21.1 - 3A - 111.7
17 - Hannah Allred - So - Ogden HS - 19:44.1 - 3A - 104.0
35 - Sierra Lawrence - Sr - Ogden HS - 20:45.5 - 3A - 83.5
57 - Courtney Peterson - Sr - Ogden HS - 21:25.2 - 3A - 70.2
3 - Summer Harper - Sr - Orem HS - 18:34.3 - 4A - 127.4
9 - Candace Greenwood - Jr - Orem HS - 18:57.1 - 4A - 119.7
16 - Ashley Runyan - Jr - Orem HS - 19:20.0 - 4A - 112.1
32 - Kate Mitchel - Jr - Orem HS - 19:57.6 - 4A - 99.5
48 - Kelsie Bonnett - Fr - Orem HS - 20:27.0 - 4A - 89.7
52 - Sydney Jacobs - Fr - Orem HS - 20:33.4 - 4A - 87.5
65 - Alexis MacArthur - Fr - Orem HS - 20:49.4 - 4A - 82.2
Not wanting to make a whole other post on this topic, but wanted to drive home the topic a little more...
ReplyDeleteIt has been pointed out that graphing time vs. place - a very good tool in most cases, particularly if fields are relatively consistent - show this year to be faster than previous years. I've always preferred to look at how runners do from race to race, or occasionally year to year, though do look at graphing races when I have the time.
But to discuss two of the other sides of the coin...
Over the years, I've found that AVERAGE year-to-year improvement for STATE QUALIFYING athletes around the nation hover around 101.5-103.0% for boys (usually ~102.0-102.5%), and around 100.0-102.0% for girls (usually around 100.5-101.5%).
Here is the improvement for Utah athletes at the state meet since 2009 (the freshman year for this year's seniors) after taking out all statistical outliers (in the pure sense of the word, continually removing data points beyond 2 standard deviations of the median):
Boys:
2009 -> 2010 = 101.79%
2010 -> 2011 = 102.88%
2011 -> 2012 = 102.58%
2009 -> 2011 = 102.15%
2010 -> 2012 = 102.62%
Girls:
2009 -> 2010 = 100.22%
2010 -> 2011 = 101.60%
2011 -> 2012 = 102.72%
2009 -> 2011 = 102.01%
2010 -> 2012 = 101.35%
Boys + Girls:
2009 -> 2010 = 101.31%
2010 -> 2011 = 102.28%
2011 -> 2012 = 102.64%
2009 -> 2011 = 102.07%
2010 -> 2012 = 102.31%
To me, that indicates two things: first, that girls improved inconsistently (better year-to-year improvement, though 2-year average improvement was worse - around the national average - so maybe they just ran poorly as a group in 2010?). And it shows that the boys either improved by ~0.5% more than in past years (which equates to about 3-4 seconds) going by the 2-year average, or by about ~0.3% less (or about 2 seconds less) than the previous year. Both scenarios are very near the national average.
How good have Utah teams and athletes proven to be through this year?
Runners and teams have been close to or better than meet and course records throughout the year. Just look at the times at Bob Firman, Nebo, Grass Relays, etc -- they all list very prominently on the All-Time records list, for both individuals and teams. And they've been very close to out of state teams (Arcadia CA at Firman, for example) that have also been running at near US Top-5 type levels (Arcadia being just 3 seconds slower than last year's NXN#4 team at Woodbridge, for example).
At Bob Firman, Davis, Herriman, Ogden, and Mountain View boys all ran times similar to what the NXN-NW#3/4 teams usually run - in November. Park City, Skyline, Ogden, and Orem were all around the level of the usual NXN-NW#4 teams as well. In short, despite it being September instead of November, and despite some teams missing scoring runners, these teams were already good enough to contend for top four finishes at NXN Regionals, and have only gotten better since.
Should it be a surprise so many of these teams and athletes threw down so many good times? No! They were already proving they could throughout the season, and they were already at the level last year to suggest they'd be capable of doing so this year with reasonable improvement.
Utah State is very, very good this fall... and so are the Colorado girls, which should make for a very interesting regional in less than 30 days!