Here is the Course-Adjusted All-Time list for the Sun Willows 5k AND 3 mile courses at the Washington State meet. For those new to my ratings, higher is better, and each point is a difference of roughly 3 seconds. Also included at the end of the post is a scoring of the 25 fastest teams at state during the Sun Willows era. For the total team times included, times are set to the Sun Willows 2008-2011 average (which happens to be very similar to the ‘97, ’98, and ’04 courses… and probably close to a couple other years if it wasn’t for the weather). I tried to include the Head Coaches for the teams as well, though for a couple of the girls teams I wasn’t sure who was the head coach at that time… if anyone knows, feel free to inform me and I’ll update when I can.
Boys Top 65 Individual Performances –
1. 201.2 - Matthew Davis, 12 - Mead 1993 - 3A#1 - 1993
2. 197.5 - Andrew Gardner, 12 - Mead 2012 - 4A#1 - 2012
3. 196.3 - Max O'Donoghue-McDonald, 12 - Seattle Prep 2006 - 3A#1 - 2006
4. 196.2 - Anthony Armstrong, 12 - Kamiakin 2011 - 3A#1 - 2011
5. 195.9 - Nathan Weitz, 12 - Shadle Park 2011 - 3A#2 - 2011
6. 195.8 - Greg Kuntz, 12 - Mead 1989 - 3A#1 - 1989
7. 194.8 - Miles Unterreiner, 12 - Gig Harbor 2007 - 4A#1 - 2007
8. 194.7 - Jacob Smith, 12 - Wenatchee 2011 - 4A#1 - 2011
9. 194.5 - Shane Moskowitz, 12 - Central Kitsap 2009 - 4A#1 - 2009
10. 193.7 - Patrick Gibson, 12 - Squalicum 2012 - 2A#1 - 2012
11. 193.7 - Izaic Yorks, 12 - Lakes 2011 - 3A#3 - 2011
12. 193.4 - Matthew Davis, 11 - Mead 1992 - 3A#1 - 1992
13. 193.3 - Andrew Gardner, 11 - Mead 2011 - 4A#2 - 2011
14. 193.3 - Kenji Bierig, 12 - Lewis and Clark 2010 - 4A#1 - 2010
15. 192.8 - Wolfgang Beck, 11 - Gig Harbor 2012 - 4A#2 - 2012
16. 192.7 - Poli Baltazar, 12 - Aberdeen 2012 - 2A#2 - 2012
17. 192.6 - David Gurry, 11 - Blanchet 1989 - 3A#2 - 1989
18. 192.5 - Nathan Weitz, 11 - Shadle Park 2010 - 3A#1 - 2010
19. 192.4 - Cameron Quackenbush, 12 - Joel Ferris 2006 - 4A#1 - 2006
20. 192.2 - Rob Webster, 12 - Puyallup 2007 - 4A#2 - 2007
21. 192.1 - Joe Hardy, 11 - Seattle Prep 2012 - 3A#1 - 2012
22. 192.0 - Adam Tenforde, 12 - Hanford 1998 - 3A#1 - 1998
23. 191.4 - Ben Johnston, 12 - North Central 2009 - 3A#1 - 2009
24. 191.2 - Kevin Rosaaen, 11 - Wilson 2007 - 4A#3 - 2007
25. 191.1 - Santos Vargas, 12 - Eisenhower 2011 - 4A#3 - 2011
26. 191.1 - Joey Bywater, 11 - Lake Stevens 2006 - 4A#2 - 2006
27. 191.0 - Colby Gilbert, 12 - Skyview 2012 - 4A#3 - 2012
28. 191.0 - Isaac Hawkins, 12 - Joel Ferris 1996 - 3A#1 - 1996
29. 191.0 - Evan Garber, 12 - Mead 2003 - 4A#1 - 2003
30. 191.0 - David Kinsella, 12 - Inglemoor 2003 - 4A#2 - 2003
31. 190.9 - Chris Lewis, 12 - Mead 1988 - 3A#1 - 1988
32. 190.8 - Dak Riek, 12 - Mariner 2006 - 4A#3 - 2006
33. 190.6 - Carl Moe, 12 - Auburn Riverside 2002 - 4A#1 - 2002
34. 190.6 - Laef Barnes, 11 - Mead 2003 - 4A#3 - 2003
35. 190.6 - Tyler King, 12 - Coupeville 2010 - 1A#1 - 2010
36. 190.1 - Jake Riley, 12 - Sehome 2006 - 2A#1 - 2006
37. 190.0 - Jeff Helmer, 12 - Henry Jackson 2005 - 4A#1 - 2005
38. 190.0 - Mack Young, 11 - Redmond 2008 - 4A#1 - 2008
39. 190.0 - Michael Miller, 12 - Mt Rainier 2008 - 3A#1 - 2008
40. 189.9 - Sumner Goodwin, 12 - Lewis and Clark 2012 - 4A#4 - 2012
41. 189.9 - Michael Kiter, 11 - Shadle Park 1999 - 4A#1 - 1999
42. 189.7 - Dre O'Donoghue-McDonald, 12 - Seattle Prep 2009 - 3A#2 - 2009
43. 189.5 - David Gurry, 12 - Blanchet 1990 - 3A#1 - 1990
44. 189.4 - Korey Krotzer, 12 - Auburn Riverside 2011 - 4A#4 - 2011
45. 189.4 - Vince Hamilton, 12 - North Central 2010 - 3A#2 - 2010
46. 189.4 - Jesse Fayant, 12 - Mead 2001 - 4A#1 - 2001
47. 189.4 - Jamie Coughlin, 12 - Garfield 2012 - 4A#5 - 2012
48. 189.3 - Rich Nelson, 12 - Shadle Park 2002 - 4A#2 - 2002
49. 189.3 - Kelly Spady, 12 - Kamiak 2004 - 4A#1 - 2004
50. 189.3 - Robbie Barany, 12 - Eisenhower 2004 - 4A#2 - 2004
51. 189.3 - Wolfgang Beck, 10 - Gig Harbor 2011 - 4A#5 - 2011
52. 189.3 - Ian Johnson, 12 - University 1998 - 4A#1 - 1998
53. 189.3 - Sean Knapp, 12 - Gig Harbor 1998 - 4A#2 - 1998
54. 189.1 - Conner Peloquin, 12 - Gig Harbor 2009 - 4A#2 - 2009
55. 189.0 - Isaac Hawkins, 11 - Joel Ferris 1995 - 3A#1 - 1995
56. 189.0 - Charles Cummings, 12 - Eisenhower 2003 - 4A#4 - 2003
57. 188.9 - Shane Moskowitz, 11 - Central Kitsap 2008 - 4A#2 - 2008
58. 188.8 - Michael Kiter, 12 - Shadle Park 2000 - 4A#1 - 2000
59. 188.7 - Chris Lukezic, 12 - Auburn 2001 - 4A#2 - 2001
60. 188.6 - Justin Houck, 12 - Joel Ferris 2003 - 4A#5 - 2003
61. 188.5 - Joe Hardy, 10 - Seattle Prep 2011 - 3A#4 - 2011
62. 188.3 - Curtis King, 12 - Peninsula 2011 - 3A#5 - 2011
63. 188.3 - Jonathan Lafler, 12 - Tahoma 2007 - 4A#4 - 2007
64. 188.3 - Micah Davis, 11 - Mead 1993 - 3A#2 - 1993
65. 188.2 - Keith Williams, 11 - North Central 2011 - 3A#6 - 2011
Girls Top 65
Individual Performances –
1. 156.8 - Amy-Eloise Neale, 12 - Glacier Peak 2012 - 3A#1 - 2012
2. 152.1 - Megan O'Reilly, 12 - Mt. Spokane 2005 - 4A#1 - 2005
3. 151.5 - Katie Knight, 11 - North Central 2011 - 3A#1 - 2011
4. 146.8 - Jordan McPhee, 10 - Mt Rainier 2011 - 4A#1 - 2011
5. 146.6 - Alexa Efraimson, 10 - Camas 2012 - 4A#1 - 2012
6. 145.4 - Amy-Eloise Neale, 11 - Glacier Peak 2011 - 3A#2 - 2011
7. 145.1 - Amy Eloise Neale, 10 - Glacier Peak 2010 - 3A#1 - 2010
8. 144.4 - Maddie Meyers, 11 - Northwest 2010 - 1A#1 - 2010
9. 143.8 - Kenna Patrick, 12 - Thomas Jefferson 2006 - 4A#1 - 2006
10. 143.0 - Katie Knight, 12 - North Central 2012 - 3A#2 - 2012
11. 143.0 - Katie Knight, 10 - North Central 2010 - 3A#2 - 2010
12. 142.9 - Andrea Nelson, 9 - Shadle Park 2006 - 4A#2 - 2006
13. 142.9 - Nicole Cochran, 11 - Bellarmine Prep 2006 - 4A#3 - 2006
14. 141.5 - Sarna Renfro, 12 - Bellarmine Prep 1993 - 3A#1 - 1993
15. 140.8 - Tansey Lystad, 12 - Inglemoor 2010 - 4A#1 - 2010
16. 140.6 - Jessica Pixler, 12 - Eastlake 2005 - 4A#2 - 2005
17. 140.5 - Andrea Nelson, 10 - Shadle Park 2007 - 4A#1 - 2007
18. 140.3 - Heidi VanBorkulo, 12 - Blanchet 1991 - 2A#1 - 1991
19. 139.2 - Brie Felnagle, 12 - Bellarmine Prep 2004 - 4A#1 - 2004
20. 138.9 - Stephanie Marcy, 12 - Sequim 2006 - 2A#1 - 2006
21. 138.9 - Anastasia Kosykh, 9 - Eastlake 2010 - 4A#2 - 2010
22. 138.5 - Sarah Schwald, 12 - John Rogers-Spokane 1990 - 3A#1 - 1990
23. 138.5 - Katie Bianchini, 12 - Glacier Peak 2012 - 3A#3 - 2012
24. 137.6 - Kayla Evans, 11 - Bellarmine Prep 2006 - 4A#4 - 2006
25. 136.7 - Maddie Meyers, 12 - Northwest 2011 - 1A#1 - 2011
26. 136.5 - Anna Dailey, 12 - Garfield 2009 - 4A#1 - 2009
27. 136.3 - Jodee Adams Moore, 12 - Newport-Bellevue 2000 - 3A#1 - 2000
28. 136.3 - Ruby Roberts, 10 - Kingston 2007 - 2A#1 - 2007
29. 136.3 - Anna Layman, 12 - Central Valley 2005 - 4A#3 - 2005
30. 136.2 - Alexa Efraimson, 9 - Camas 2011 - 3A#3 - 2011
31. 135.9 - Paige Pattilo, 11 - Bothell 2005 - 4A#4 - 2005
32. 135.6 - Michelle Schubert, 12 - West Valley(Yak) 2005 - 3A#1 - 2005
33. 135.5 - Maddie Meyers, 10 - Northwest 2009 - 1A#1 - 2009
34. 135.3 - Kayla Evans, 12 - Bellarmine Prep 2007 - 4A#2 - 2007
35. 135.3 - Alyssa Andrews, 12 - Gig Harbor 2008 - 4A#1 - 2008
36. 135.2 - Robin Bryson, 10 - Eisenhower 1988 - 3A#1 - 1988
37. 135.0 - Stephanie Marcy, 11 - Sequim 2005 - 3A#2 - 2005
38. 134.9 - Ann Ramsey, 12 - Lakeside 1996 - 2A#1 - 1996
39. 134.6 - Robin Bryson, 12 - Eisenhower 1990 - 3A#2 - 1990
40. 134.6 - Sarah Reiter, 11 - Lindbergh 2010 - 2A#1 - 2010
41. 134.5 - Katie Bianchini, 10 - Glacier Peak 2010 - 3A#3 - 2010
42. 134.5 - Amber Nickelson, 11 - Lake Stevens 2002 - 4A#1 - 2002
43. 134.4 - Jessica Fry, 12 - John Rogers(Spokane) 1993 - 3A#2 - 1993
44. 134.3 - Jordan McPhee, 11 - Mt Rainier 2012 - 4A#2 - 2012
45. 134.1 - Brie Felnagle, 11 - Bellarmine Prep 2003 - 4A#1 - 2003
46. 134.0 - Bronwyn Crossman, 12 - Squalicum 2007 - 3A#1 - 2007
47. 133.8 - Ruby Roberts, 12 - Kingston 2009 - 2A#1 - 2009
48. 133.7 - Bronwyn Crossman, 11 - Squalicum 2006 - 3A#1 - 2006
49. 133.6 - Kelsey Walker, 12 - Bellevue 2005 - 3A#3 - 2005
50. 133.4 - Sandra Martinez, 11 - Davis 2007 - 4A#3 - 2007
51. 133.1 - Amy-Eloise Neale, 9 - Glacier Peak 2009 - 3A#1 - 2009
52. 133.1 - Lisa Olander, 10 - West Valley(Yak) 2006 - 3A#2 - 2006
53. 133.1 - Sarna Renfro, 11 - Bellarmine Prep 1992 - 3A#1 - 1992
54. 132.8 - Katie Knight, 9 - North Central 2009 - 3A#2 - 2009
55. 132.8 - Kesslee Payne, 12 - Gig Harbor 2006 - 4A#5 - 2006
56. 132.7 - Kim Schmolka, 10 - South Kitsap 1991 - 3A#1 - 1991
57. 132.6 - Jessie McLaughlin, 12 - Olympia 2001 - 4A#1 - 2001
58. 132.5 - Suzanna Matsen, 11 - Lakeside 1991 - 2A#2 - 1991
59. 132.5 - Shannon Bell, 12 - Gonzaga Prep 2002 - 4A#2 - 2002
60. 132.4 - Alexis Fuller, 9 - Union 2011 - 4A#2 - 2011
61. 132.3 - Alexis Fuller, 10 - Union 2012 - 4A#3 - 2012
62. 132.0 - Nicole Cochran, 10 - Bellarmine Prep 2005 - 4A#5 - 2005
63. 132.0 - Emily Pittis, 10 - Sehome 2012 - 2A#1 - 2012
64. 131.9 - Chandler Olson, 10 - Woodinville 2010 - 4A#3 - 2010
65. 131.9 - Bobeya Krishnek, 12 - Mount Baker 2001 - 2A#1 - 2001
Boys Top 30 Team Times/Average Ratings –
1. 184.8 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 1993 - 77:44.95
2. 183.8 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2008 - 77:59.52
3. 183.4 - Joel Ferris (Mike Hadway) - 2006 - 78:05.82
4. 182.5 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2012 - 78:18.76
5. 182.4 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 1992 - 78:19.89
6. 181.7 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 1989 - 78:30.61
7. 181.2 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2009 - 78:37.55
8. 180.7 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 1988 - 78:45.75
9. 180.7 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2010 - 78:45.82
10. 180.3 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 2006 - 78:52.12
11. 180.0 - Joel Ferris (Mike Hadway) - 2004 - 78:55.50
12. 179.9 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2007 - 78:57.44
13. 179.5 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2011 - 79:02.91
14. 179.3 - Gig Harbor (Mark Wieczorek) - 2011 - 79:06.11
15. 179.0 - Joel Ferris (Mike Hadway) - 2009 - 79:10.49
16. 178.9 - Joel Ferris (Mike Hadway) - 2005 - 79:11.62
17. 178.5 - University (Bob Barbero) - 1998 - 79:18.06
18. 178.0 - Kamiakin (Matt Rexus) - 2012 - 79:25.45
19. 177.7 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 2001 - 79:30.10
20. 177.5 - Kamiakin (Matt Rexus) - 2011 - 79:33.23
21. 177.5 - Central Valley (James Berry) - 2006 - 79:33.59
22. 177.4 - Seattle Prep (Doc Robertson) - 2011 - 79:34.33
23. 177.4 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 2005 - 79:35.04
24. 177.3 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 1994 - 79:36.34
25. 177.2 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 2002 - 79:37.08
26. 177.1 - Central Valley (Kieran Mahoney) - 2012 - 79:39.64
27. 177.0 - Eisenhower (Phil English) - 2011 - 79:40.14
28. 176.9 - Seattle Prep (Doc Robertson) - 2012 - 79:41.52
29. 176.5 - Eisenhower (Phil English) - 2004 - 79:48.25
30. 176.2 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 2004 - 79:52.23
Girls Top 30 Team Times/Average Ratings –
1. 126.5 - Camas (Mike Hickey) - 2012 - 92:07.09
2. 121.9 - Glacier Peak (Dan Parker) - 2012 - 93:15.26
3. 121.1 - Glacier Peak (Dan Parker) - 2010 - 93:27.30
4. 118.6 - Glacier Peak (Dan Parker) - 2011 - 94:05.37
5. 118.2 - Gig Harbor (Patty Ley) - 2005 - 94:10.60
6. 117.6 - Snohomish (Dan Parker) - 2003 - 94:19.64
7. 117.3 - Mt. Spokane (Sean Linder) - 2005 - 94:23.29
8. 116.8 - Joel Ferris (???) - 1991 - 94:31.23
9. 116.2 - Gig Harbor (Patty Ley) - 2006 - 94:40.28
10. 116.0 - Camas (Mike Hickey) - 2011 - 94:43.00
11. 115.9 - Tahoma (Jeff Brady) - 2012 - 94:44.88
12. 115.4 - Thomas Jefferson (Paul Ruston) - 2006 - 94:52.81
13. 115.1 - Gig Harbor (Patty Ley) - 2007 - 94:56.66
14. 114.9 - Bellarmine Prep (Matt Ellis) - 2004 - 94:59.91
15. 114.8 - Rogers-Spokane (???) - 1990 - 95:01.52
16. 112.2 - Snohomish (Dan Parker) - 1995 - 95:39.94
17. 112.1 - Gig Harbor (Patty Ley) - 2004 - 95:40.72
18. 112.1 - Eisenhower (Phil English) - 1994 - 95:41.37
19. 112.0 - Shadle Park (Bob Isitt) - 2009 - 95:41.72
20. 111.7 - Bellarmine Prep (Matt Ellis) - 2012 - 95:47.49
21. 111.6 - Redmond (Denis Villeneuve) - 2011 - 95:47.95
22. 111.6 - Tahoma (Jeff Brady) - 2011 - 95:47.95
23. 111.6 - Bellarmine Prep (Matt Ellis) - 2003 - 95:48.74
24. 111.4 - Sehome (Mark Kerr & Kevin Ryan) - 2012 - 95:50.77
25. 110.7 - West Valley-Yakima (???) - 2005 - 96:01.87
26. 110.6 - Eisenhower (Phil English) - 1995 - 96:02.62
27. 110.6 - Joel Ferris (???) - 1995 - 96:02.62
28. 110.3 - Glacier Peak (Dan Parker) - 2009 - 96:07.67
29. 110.3 - Thomas Jefferson (Paul Ruston) - 2005 - 96:07.73
30. 110.2 - Bellarmine Prep (Matt Ellis) - 2006 - 96:09.01
Scoring of the 25 fastest boys teams –
1. 204.0 – North Central 2008 (NXN#1)
2. 222.5 – Joel Ferris 2006 (NXN#3)
3. 225.0 – Mead 1993 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#1)
4. 241.0 - North Central 2012 (NXN#3)
5. 259.0 – Mead 1992 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#1)
6. 265.5 – North Central 2009 (NXN#7)
7. 288.0 – Mead 1989 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#3)
8. 291.0 – North Central 2010 (NXN#6)
9. 293.0 – Mead 1988
10. 295.0 – Mead 2006 (NTN#5)
11. 317.0 – North Central 2007 (NXN#6)
12. 317.0 – Joel Ferris 2004 (NTN#13)
13. 323.0 – North Central 2011 (NXN#7)
14. 326.0 – Gig Harbor 2011 (NXN#15)
15. 335.5 – Joel Ferris 2009 (NXN#3)
16. 347.0 – Mead 2002 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#13)
17. 347.5 – Joel Ferris 2005 (NTN#10)
18. 356.0 – University 1998 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#11)
19. 356.5 – Central Valley 2006
20. 359.0 – Kamiakin 2012 (NXN#7)
21. 359.0 – Mead 2001 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#7)
22. 371.0 – Seattle Prep 2011 (DNQ for NXN; ESPN/Dyestat US#18)
23. 381.0 – Mead 1994 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#7)
24. 387.5 – Mead 2005 (NTN#4)
25. 408.0 – Kamiakin 2011 (DNQ for NXN; ESPN/Dyestat US#32)
Scoring of the 25 fastest girls teams –
1. 163.0 – Camas 2012 (NXN#13)
2. 248.0 – Gig Harbor 2005 (NTN#7)
3. 257.0 – Glacier Peak 2010 (DNQ for NXN; ESPN/Dyestat US#13)
4. 261.5 – Snohomish 2003 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#8)
5. 278.0 – Joel Ferris 1991 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#5)
6. 293.0 – Tahoma 2012
7. 295.0 – Glacier Peak 2011 (NXN#16)
8. 296.0 – Gig Harbor 2006
9. 300.0 – Bellarmine Prep 2004 (NTN#4)
10. 300.0 – Glacier Peak 2012
11. 303.0 – Gig Harbor 2007
12. 307.0 – Camas 2011 (DNQ for NXN; ESPN/Dyestat US#30)
13. 313.0 – Mount Spokane 2005
14. 324.0 – John Rogers-Spokane 1990 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#3)
15. 324.0 – Thomas Jefferson 2006
16. 347.0 – Shadle Park 2009 (ESPN/Dyestat US#25)
17. 349.0 – Gig Harbor 2004
18. 350.0 – Eisenhower 1994
19. 359.0 – Snohomish 1995 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#17)
20. 359.0 – Bellarmine Prep 2012
21. 360.0 – Tahoma 2011 (DNQ for NXN; ESPN/Dyestat US#39)
22. 365.0 – Redmond 2011
23. 370.0 – Sehome 2012
24. 375.5 – Bellarmine Prep 2003
25. 378.0 – West Valley-Yakima 2005
I may try to retroactively figure out some national rankings prior to when I started doing official ones for Dyestat in 2008, but until then my 2008+ national rankings, 1989-2003 Harrier rankings and NTN/NXN Nationals finishes will have to do – apologies to those teams that didn’t get invited to Portland, or that weren’t included in other rankings.
Thank you for putting these lists together. Great historical data.
ReplyDeleteWatchout, when do you anticipate you will put out your Pre-season national poll?
ReplyDeleteI saw a Washington 4a thread on Dyestat. Do you think you will do a 3a thread?
The plan is to have the Pre-Season Rankings posted the week before Labor Day (so sometime during the last week in August).
DeleteYes, I'll be making a 3A Boys thread on DyeStat, and also plan to do the same for 4A Girls and Oregon 6A Girls... possibly Oregon 5A boys as well, because that could also be an interesting race.
How is Anthoney Armstrong's course record scored 4th below Andrew Gardner's performance? I saw both those races and Armstrong's performance was by far more impressive.
ReplyDeleteI saw both races as well, and I too was more impressed by Armstrong's, but this doesn't measure what I (and I assume others) would generally call "most impressive".
DeleteArmstrong ran against a pair of All-Americans and it was a battle the whole way to the finish.
Gardner had less competition.
Times weren't too different (14:58.4 vs. 15:02.3); Margin of victory, obviously, better for Gardner (14 seconds over second... Weitz and Yorks were MUCH closer); But the important thing, which is what this rating system looks at, is how slow the course ran compared to other courses (as judged by what runners do at this race vs. other races, specifically late-season invites and league/district/regional races and mostly the NXN and FLN races), and adjusting the times for all runners accordingly.
In short; for whatever reason (and there are plenty of variables), 2012 was a slower course than 2011.
Margin of victory? Of course Weitz and Yorks were MUCH closer; they are far better than the athletes that placed 2nd and 3rd place in the 4A race in 2012. Possibly even better than Gardner himself.
DeleteThe class of 2012 was a star studded class for Washington. Perhaps it wasn't the course that was slower, but the runners on the course? Not to put anyone down, but time is time, and last time I checked Gardner's state course PR puts him behind Armstrong AND Weitz.
Again, so hopefully I'm more clear:
DeleteThe ratings are based on what runners run not only at this race, but other races. That is how the course for that meet is adjusted. Not just how fast runners run on the course that day, but how much faster/slower they are on other courses (most specifically NXN-NW, and how those runners at NXN-NW do at NXN, but also looking at how they ran in October for example)
When I say "course was slower", I don't mean the runners in the race was slower. I mean the runners in the race were slower on that day compared to how they were the rest of their races in the late/post season, suggesting that the course was more difficult (slower) on that day for whatever reason.
Rob
ReplyDeleteI am curious how you determine how slow the course is. One way is to take the median time. Then you can ratio the times (at least of the first 3 finishers or so) to that median. You can get a median for each race, or get some kind of combined median (for say 4A and 3A classifications).
I have applied this simple technique to the top 3 finishers in the two biggest boys classifications back to 1988. Based upon that the best performance was Matthew Davis in 1993 14:09/16:12 = .874. It isn't really even close. The next best performance is Greg Kuntz in 1989 14:29/16:22 = .885. There is also Isaac Hawkins in 1996 at .894. Those are all better than any 4A boy has done in the 5K era.
For 3A boys, Max O'Donoghue-McDonald laid down a .878 in 2006. This is by far the best. However, that is the ratio of his time to the median 3A time. The median 4A time was much faster that year (and normally is). Using the 4A median time you get .897. So that brings up the topic of how do you compare 3A kids with 4A kids (or 2A kids for that matter).
Using my simple technique, I would put down the best 4A performances as
1) Davis 1993
2) Kuntz 1989
3) Gurry 1989 (2nd place)
4) Hawkins 1996
5) Davis (again) 1992
For 3A I would include
1) O'Donoghue-McDonald 2006
2) Tenforde 1998
3) Weitz 2011
4) Armstrong 2012
5) Weitz (again) 2012
I imagine you use something more sophisticated that a simple ratio of the median time. I would be very interested in your process if you are willing to share it.