Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Sun Willows All-Time lists (Course-Adjusted) Updated

Here is the Course-Adjusted All-Time list for the Sun Willows 5k AND 3 mile courses at the Washington State meet. For those new to my ratings, higher is better, and each point is a difference of roughly 3 seconds. Also included at the end of the post is a scoring of the 25 fastest teams at state during the Sun Willows era. For the total team times included, times are set to the Sun Willows 2008-2011 average (which happens to be very similar to the ‘97, ’98, and ’04 courses… and probably close to a couple other years if it wasn’t for the weather). I tried to include the Head Coaches for the teams as well, though for a couple of the girls teams I wasn’t sure who was the head coach at that time… if anyone knows, feel free to inform me and I’ll update when I can.

 

Boys Top 65 Individual Performances

1.       201.2 - Matthew Davis, 12 - Mead 1993 - 3A#1 - 1993

2.       197.5 - Andrew Gardner, 12 - Mead 2012 - 4A#1 - 2012

3.       196.3 - Max O'Donoghue-McDonald, 12 - Seattle Prep 2006 - 3A#1 - 2006

4.       196.2 - Anthony Armstrong, 12 - Kamiakin 2011 - 3A#1 - 2011

5.       195.9 - Nathan Weitz, 12 - Shadle Park 2011 - 3A#2 - 2011

6.       195.8 - Greg Kuntz, 12 - Mead 1989 - 3A#1 - 1989

7.       194.8 - Miles Unterreiner, 12 - Gig Harbor 2007 - 4A#1 - 2007

8.       194.7 - Jacob Smith, 12 - Wenatchee 2011 - 4A#1 - 2011

9.       194.5 - Shane Moskowitz, 12 - Central Kitsap 2009 - 4A#1 - 2009

10.   193.7 - Patrick Gibson, 12 - Squalicum 2012 - 2A#1 - 2012

11.   193.7 - Izaic Yorks, 12 - Lakes 2011 - 3A#3 - 2011

12.   193.4 - Matthew Davis, 11 - Mead 1992 - 3A#1 - 1992

13.   193.3 - Andrew Gardner, 11 - Mead 2011 - 4A#2 - 2011

14.   193.3 - Kenji Bierig, 12 - Lewis and Clark 2010 - 4A#1 - 2010

15.   192.8 - Wolfgang Beck, 11 - Gig Harbor 2012 - 4A#2 - 2012

16.   192.7 - Poli Baltazar, 12 - Aberdeen 2012 - 2A#2 - 2012

17.   192.6 - David Gurry, 11 - Blanchet 1989 - 3A#2 - 1989

18.   192.5 - Nathan Weitz, 11 - Shadle Park 2010 - 3A#1 - 2010

19.   192.4 - Cameron Quackenbush, 12 - Joel Ferris 2006 - 4A#1 - 2006

20.   192.2 - Rob Webster, 12 - Puyallup 2007 - 4A#2 - 2007

21.   192.1 - Joe Hardy, 11 - Seattle Prep 2012 - 3A#1 - 2012

22.   192.0 - Adam Tenforde, 12 - Hanford 1998 - 3A#1 - 1998

23.   191.4 - Ben Johnston, 12 - North Central 2009 - 3A#1 - 2009

24.   191.2 - Kevin Rosaaen, 11 - Wilson 2007 - 4A#3 - 2007

25.   191.1 - Santos Vargas, 12 - Eisenhower 2011 - 4A#3 - 2011

26.   191.1 - Joey Bywater, 11 - Lake Stevens 2006 - 4A#2 - 2006

27.   191.0 - Colby Gilbert, 12 - Skyview 2012 - 4A#3 - 2012

28.   191.0 - Isaac Hawkins, 12 - Joel Ferris 1996 - 3A#1 - 1996

29.   191.0 - Evan Garber, 12 - Mead 2003 - 4A#1 - 2003

30.   191.0 - David Kinsella, 12 - Inglemoor 2003 - 4A#2 - 2003

31.   190.9 - Chris Lewis, 12 - Mead 1988 - 3A#1 - 1988

32.   190.8 - Dak Riek, 12 - Mariner 2006 - 4A#3 - 2006

33.   190.6 - Carl Moe, 12 - Auburn Riverside 2002 - 4A#1 - 2002

34.   190.6 - Laef Barnes, 11 - Mead 2003 - 4A#3 - 2003

35.   190.6 - Tyler King, 12 - Coupeville 2010 - 1A#1 - 2010

36.   190.1 - Jake Riley, 12 - Sehome 2006 - 2A#1 - 2006

37.   190.0 - Jeff Helmer, 12 - Henry Jackson 2005 - 4A#1 - 2005

38.   190.0 - Mack Young, 11 - Redmond 2008 - 4A#1 - 2008

39.   190.0 - Michael Miller, 12 - Mt Rainier 2008 - 3A#1 - 2008

40.   189.9 - Sumner Goodwin, 12 - Lewis and Clark 2012 - 4A#4 - 2012

41.   189.9 - Michael Kiter, 11 - Shadle Park 1999 - 4A#1 - 1999

42.   189.7 - Dre O'Donoghue-McDonald, 12 - Seattle Prep 2009 - 3A#2 - 2009

43.   189.5 - David Gurry, 12 - Blanchet 1990 - 3A#1 - 1990

44.   189.4 - Korey Krotzer, 12 - Auburn Riverside 2011 - 4A#4 - 2011

45.   189.4 - Vince Hamilton, 12 - North Central 2010 - 3A#2 - 2010

46.   189.4 - Jesse Fayant, 12 - Mead 2001 - 4A#1 - 2001

47.   189.4 - Jamie Coughlin, 12 - Garfield 2012 - 4A#5 - 2012

48.   189.3 - Rich Nelson, 12 - Shadle Park 2002 - 4A#2 - 2002

49.   189.3 - Kelly Spady, 12 - Kamiak 2004 - 4A#1 - 2004

50.   189.3 - Robbie Barany, 12 - Eisenhower 2004 - 4A#2 - 2004

51.   189.3 - Wolfgang Beck, 10 - Gig Harbor 2011 - 4A#5 - 2011

52.   189.3 - Ian Johnson, 12 - University 1998 - 4A#1 - 1998

53.   189.3 - Sean Knapp, 12 - Gig Harbor 1998 - 4A#2 - 1998

54.   189.1 - Conner Peloquin, 12 - Gig Harbor 2009 - 4A#2 - 2009

55.   189.0 - Isaac Hawkins, 11 - Joel Ferris 1995 - 3A#1 - 1995

56.   189.0 - Charles Cummings, 12 - Eisenhower 2003 - 4A#4 - 2003

57.   188.9 - Shane Moskowitz, 11 - Central Kitsap 2008 - 4A#2 - 2008

58.   188.8 - Michael Kiter, 12 - Shadle Park 2000 - 4A#1 - 2000

59.   188.7 - Chris Lukezic, 12 - Auburn 2001 - 4A#2 - 2001

60.   188.6 - Justin Houck, 12 - Joel Ferris 2003 - 4A#5 - 2003

61.   188.5 - Joe Hardy, 10 - Seattle Prep 2011 - 3A#4 - 2011

62.   188.3 - Curtis King, 12 - Peninsula 2011 - 3A#5 - 2011

63.   188.3 - Jonathan Lafler, 12 - Tahoma 2007 - 4A#4 - 2007

64.   188.3 - Micah Davis, 11 - Mead 1993 - 3A#2 - 1993

65.   188.2 - Keith Williams, 11 - North Central 2011 - 3A#6 - 2011

 

Girls Top 65 Individual Performances –

1.       156.8 - Amy-Eloise Neale, 12 - Glacier Peak 2012 - 3A#1 - 2012

2.       152.1 - Megan O'Reilly, 12 - Mt. Spokane 2005 - 4A#1 - 2005

3.       151.5 - Katie Knight, 11 - North Central 2011 - 3A#1 - 2011

4.       146.8 - Jordan McPhee, 10 - Mt Rainier 2011 - 4A#1 - 2011

5.       146.6 - Alexa Efraimson, 10 - Camas 2012 - 4A#1 - 2012

6.       145.4 - Amy-Eloise Neale, 11 - Glacier Peak 2011 - 3A#2 - 2011

7.       145.1 - Amy Eloise Neale, 10 - Glacier Peak 2010 - 3A#1 - 2010

8.       144.4 - Maddie Meyers, 11 - Northwest 2010 - 1A#1 - 2010

9.       143.8 - Kenna Patrick, 12 - Thomas Jefferson 2006 - 4A#1 - 2006

10.   143.0 - Katie Knight, 12 - North Central 2012 - 3A#2 - 2012

11.   143.0 - Katie Knight, 10 - North Central 2010 - 3A#2 - 2010

12.   142.9 - Andrea Nelson, 9 - Shadle Park 2006 - 4A#2 - 2006

13.   142.9 - Nicole Cochran, 11 - Bellarmine Prep 2006 - 4A#3 - 2006

14.   141.5 - Sarna Renfro, 12 - Bellarmine Prep 1993 - 3A#1 - 1993

15.   140.8 - Tansey Lystad, 12 - Inglemoor 2010 - 4A#1 - 2010

16.   140.6 - Jessica Pixler, 12 - Eastlake 2005 - 4A#2 - 2005

17.   140.5 - Andrea Nelson, 10 - Shadle Park 2007 - 4A#1 - 2007

18.   140.3 - Heidi VanBorkulo, 12 - Blanchet 1991 - 2A#1 - 1991

19.   139.2 - Brie Felnagle, 12 - Bellarmine Prep 2004 - 4A#1 - 2004

20.   138.9 - Stephanie Marcy, 12 - Sequim 2006 - 2A#1 - 2006

21.   138.9 - Anastasia Kosykh, 9 - Eastlake 2010 - 4A#2 - 2010

22.   138.5 - Sarah Schwald, 12 - John Rogers-Spokane 1990 - 3A#1 - 1990

23.   138.5 - Katie Bianchini, 12 - Glacier Peak 2012 - 3A#3 - 2012

24.   137.6 - Kayla Evans, 11 - Bellarmine Prep 2006 - 4A#4 - 2006

25.   136.7 - Maddie Meyers, 12 - Northwest 2011 - 1A#1 - 2011

26.   136.5 - Anna Dailey, 12 - Garfield 2009 - 4A#1 - 2009

27.   136.3 - Jodee Adams Moore, 12 - Newport-Bellevue 2000 - 3A#1 - 2000

28.   136.3 - Ruby Roberts, 10 - Kingston 2007 - 2A#1 - 2007

29.   136.3 - Anna Layman, 12 - Central Valley 2005 - 4A#3 - 2005

30.   136.2 - Alexa Efraimson, 9 - Camas 2011 - 3A#3 - 2011

31.   135.9 - Paige Pattilo, 11 - Bothell 2005 - 4A#4 - 2005

32.   135.6 - Michelle Schubert, 12 - West Valley(Yak) 2005 - 3A#1 - 2005

33.   135.5 - Maddie Meyers, 10 - Northwest 2009 - 1A#1 - 2009

34.   135.3 - Kayla Evans, 12 - Bellarmine Prep 2007 - 4A#2 - 2007

35.   135.3 - Alyssa Andrews, 12 - Gig Harbor 2008 - 4A#1 - 2008

36.   135.2 - Robin Bryson, 10 - Eisenhower 1988 - 3A#1 - 1988

37.   135.0 - Stephanie Marcy, 11 - Sequim 2005 - 3A#2 - 2005

38.   134.9 - Ann Ramsey, 12 - Lakeside 1996 - 2A#1 - 1996

39.   134.6 - Robin Bryson, 12 - Eisenhower 1990 - 3A#2 - 1990

40.   134.6 - Sarah Reiter, 11 - Lindbergh 2010 - 2A#1 - 2010

41.   134.5 - Katie Bianchini, 10 - Glacier Peak 2010 - 3A#3 - 2010

42.   134.5 - Amber Nickelson, 11 - Lake Stevens 2002 - 4A#1 - 2002

43.   134.4 - Jessica Fry, 12 - John Rogers(Spokane) 1993 - 3A#2 - 1993

44.   134.3 - Jordan McPhee, 11 - Mt Rainier 2012 - 4A#2 - 2012

45.   134.1 - Brie Felnagle, 11 - Bellarmine Prep 2003 - 4A#1 - 2003

46.   134.0 - Bronwyn Crossman, 12 - Squalicum 2007 - 3A#1 - 2007

47.   133.8 - Ruby Roberts, 12 - Kingston 2009 - 2A#1 - 2009

48.   133.7 - Bronwyn Crossman, 11 - Squalicum 2006 - 3A#1 - 2006

49.   133.6 - Kelsey Walker, 12 - Bellevue 2005 - 3A#3 - 2005

50.   133.4 - Sandra Martinez, 11 - Davis 2007 - 4A#3 - 2007

51.   133.1 - Amy-Eloise Neale, 9 - Glacier Peak 2009 - 3A#1 - 2009

52.   133.1 - Lisa Olander, 10 - West Valley(Yak) 2006 - 3A#2 - 2006

53.   133.1 - Sarna Renfro, 11 - Bellarmine Prep 1992 - 3A#1 - 1992

54.   132.8 - Katie Knight, 9 - North Central 2009 - 3A#2 - 2009

55.   132.8 - Kesslee Payne, 12 - Gig Harbor 2006 - 4A#5 - 2006

56.   132.7 - Kim Schmolka, 10 - South Kitsap 1991 - 3A#1 - 1991

57.   132.6 - Jessie McLaughlin, 12 - Olympia 2001 - 4A#1 - 2001

58.   132.5 - Suzanna Matsen, 11 - Lakeside 1991 - 2A#2 - 1991

59.   132.5 - Shannon Bell, 12 - Gonzaga Prep 2002 - 4A#2 - 2002

60.   132.4 - Alexis Fuller, 9 - Union 2011 - 4A#2 - 2011

61.   132.3 - Alexis Fuller, 10 - Union 2012 - 4A#3 - 2012

62.   132.0 - Nicole Cochran, 10 - Bellarmine Prep 2005 - 4A#5 - 2005

63.   132.0 - Emily Pittis, 10 - Sehome 2012 - 2A#1 - 2012

64.   131.9 - Chandler Olson, 10 - Woodinville 2010 - 4A#3 - 2010

65.   131.9 - Bobeya Krishnek, 12 - Mount Baker 2001 - 2A#1 - 2001

 

Boys Top 30 Team Times/Average Ratings

1.       184.8 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 1993 - 77:44.95

2.       183.8 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2008 - 77:59.52

3.       183.4 - Joel Ferris (Mike Hadway) - 2006 - 78:05.82

4.       182.5 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2012 - 78:18.76

5.       182.4 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 1992 - 78:19.89

6.       181.7 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 1989 - 78:30.61

7.       181.2 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2009 - 78:37.55

8.       180.7 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 1988 - 78:45.75

9.       180.7 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2010 - 78:45.82

10.   180.3 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 2006 - 78:52.12

11.   180.0 - Joel Ferris (Mike Hadway) - 2004 - 78:55.50

12.   179.9 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2007 - 78:57.44

13.   179.5 - North Central (Jon Knight) - 2011 - 79:02.91

14.   179.3 - Gig Harbor (Mark Wieczorek) - 2011 - 79:06.11

15.   179.0 - Joel Ferris (Mike Hadway) - 2009 - 79:10.49

16.   178.9 - Joel Ferris (Mike Hadway) - 2005 - 79:11.62

17.   178.5 - University (Bob Barbero) - 1998 - 79:18.06

18.   178.0 - Kamiakin (Matt Rexus) - 2012 - 79:25.45

19.   177.7 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 2001 - 79:30.10

20.   177.5 - Kamiakin (Matt Rexus) - 2011 - 79:33.23

21.   177.5 - Central Valley (James Berry) - 2006 - 79:33.59

22.   177.4 - Seattle Prep (Doc Robertson) - 2011 - 79:34.33

23.   177.4 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 2005 - 79:35.04

24.   177.3 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 1994 - 79:36.34

25.   177.2 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 2002 - 79:37.08

26.   177.1 - Central Valley (Kieran Mahoney) - 2012 - 79:39.64

27.   177.0 - Eisenhower (Phil English) - 2011 - 79:40.14

28.   176.9 - Seattle Prep (Doc Robertson) - 2012 - 79:41.52

29.   176.5 - Eisenhower (Phil English) - 2004 - 79:48.25

30.   176.2 - Mead (Pat Tyson) - 2004 - 79:52.23

 

Girls Top 30 Team Times/Average Ratings

1.       126.5 - Camas (Mike Hickey) - 2012 - 92:07.09

2.       121.9 - Glacier Peak (Dan Parker) - 2012 - 93:15.26

3.       121.1 - Glacier Peak (Dan Parker) - 2010 - 93:27.30

4.       118.6 - Glacier Peak (Dan Parker) - 2011 - 94:05.37

5.       118.2 - Gig Harbor (Patty Ley) - 2005 - 94:10.60

6.       117.6 - Snohomish (Dan Parker) - 2003 - 94:19.64

7.       117.3 - Mt. Spokane (Sean Linder) - 2005 - 94:23.29

8.       116.8 - Joel Ferris (???) - 1991 - 94:31.23

9.       116.2 - Gig Harbor (Patty Ley) - 2006 - 94:40.28

10.   116.0 - Camas (Mike Hickey) - 2011 - 94:43.00

11.   115.9 - Tahoma (Jeff Brady) - 2012 - 94:44.88

12.   115.4 - Thomas Jefferson (Paul Ruston) - 2006 - 94:52.81

13.   115.1 - Gig Harbor (Patty Ley) - 2007 - 94:56.66

14.   114.9 - Bellarmine Prep (Matt Ellis) - 2004 - 94:59.91

15.   114.8 - Rogers-Spokane (???) - 1990 - 95:01.52

16.   112.2 - Snohomish (Dan Parker) - 1995 - 95:39.94

17.   112.1 - Gig Harbor (Patty Ley) - 2004 - 95:40.72

18.   112.1 - Eisenhower (Phil English) - 1994 - 95:41.37

19.   112.0 - Shadle Park (Bob Isitt) - 2009 - 95:41.72

20.   111.7 - Bellarmine Prep (Matt Ellis) - 2012 - 95:47.49

21.   111.6 - Redmond (Denis Villeneuve) - 2011 - 95:47.95

22.   111.6 - Tahoma (Jeff Brady) - 2011 - 95:47.95

23.   111.6 - Bellarmine Prep (Matt Ellis) - 2003 - 95:48.74

24.   111.4 - Sehome (Mark Kerr & Kevin Ryan) - 2012 - 95:50.77

25.   110.7 - West Valley-Yakima (???) - 2005 - 96:01.87

26.   110.6 - Eisenhower (Phil English) - 1995 - 96:02.62

27.   110.6 - Joel Ferris (???) - 1995 - 96:02.62

28.   110.3 - Glacier Peak (Dan Parker) - 2009 - 96:07.67

29.   110.3 - Thomas Jefferson (Paul Ruston) - 2005 - 96:07.73

30.   110.2 - Bellarmine Prep (Matt Ellis) - 2006 - 96:09.01

 

 

Scoring of the 25 fastest boys teams –

1.       204.0 – North Central 2008 (NXN#1)

2.       222.5 – Joel Ferris 2006 (NXN#3)

3.       225.0 – Mead 1993 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#1)

4.       241.0 - North Central 2012 (NXN#3)

5.       259.0 – Mead 1992 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#1)

6.       265.5 – North Central 2009 (NXN#7)

7.       288.0 – Mead 1989 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#3)

8.       291.0 – North Central 2010 (NXN#6)

9.       293.0 – Mead 1988

10.   295.0 – Mead 2006 (NTN#5)

11.   317.0 – North Central 2007 (NXN#6)

12.   317.0 – Joel Ferris 2004 (NTN#13)

13.   323.0 – North Central 2011 (NXN#7)

14.   326.0 – Gig Harbor 2011 (NXN#15)

15.   335.5 – Joel Ferris 2009 (NXN#3)

16.   347.0 – Mead 2002 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#13)

17.   347.5 – Joel Ferris 2005 (NTN#10)

18.   356.0 – University 1998 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#11)

19.   356.5 – Central Valley 2006

20.   359.0 – Kamiakin 2012 (NXN#7)

21.   359.0 – Mead 2001 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#7)

22.   371.0 – Seattle Prep 2011 (DNQ for NXN; ESPN/Dyestat US#18)

23.   381.0 – Mead 1994 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#7)

24.   387.5 – Mead 2005 (NTN#4)

25.   408.0 – Kamiakin 2011 (DNQ for NXN; ESPN/Dyestat US#32)

 

 

Scoring of the 25 fastest girls teams –

1.       163.0 – Camas 2012 (NXN#13)

2.       248.0 – Gig Harbor 2005 (NTN#7)

3.       257.0 – Glacier Peak 2010 (DNQ for NXN; ESPN/Dyestat US#13)

4.       261.5 – Snohomish 2003 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#8)

5.       278.0 – Joel Ferris 1991 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#5)

6.       293.0 – Tahoma 2012

7.       295.0 – Glacier Peak 2011 (NXN#16)

8.       296.0 – Gig Harbor 2006

9.       300.0 – Bellarmine Prep 2004 (NTN#4)

10.   300.0 – Glacier Peak 2012

11.   303.0 – Gig Harbor 2007

12.   307.0 – Camas 2011 (DNQ for NXN; ESPN/Dyestat US#30)

13.   313.0 – Mount Spokane 2005

14.   324.0 – John Rogers-Spokane 1990 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#3)

15.   324.0 – Thomas Jefferson 2006

16.   347.0 – Shadle Park 2009 (ESPN/Dyestat US#25)

17.   349.0 – Gig Harbor 2004

18.   350.0 – Eisenhower 1994

19.   359.0 – Snohomish 1995 (Marc Bloom/Harrier US#17)

20.   359.0 – Bellarmine Prep 2012

21.   360.0 – Tahoma 2011 (DNQ for NXN; ESPN/Dyestat US#39)

22.   365.0 – Redmond 2011

23.   370.0 – Sehome 2012

24.   375.5 – Bellarmine Prep 2003

25.   378.0 – West Valley-Yakima 2005

 

I may try to retroactively figure out some national rankings prior to when I started doing official ones for Dyestat in 2008, but until then my 2008+ national rankings, 1989-2003 Harrier rankings and NTN/NXN Nationals finishes will have to do – apologies to those teams that didn’t get invited to Portland, or that weren’t included in other rankings.

8 comments:

  1. Thank you for putting these lists together. Great historical data.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Watchout, when do you anticipate you will put out your Pre-season national poll?
    I saw a Washington 4a thread on Dyestat. Do you think you will do a 3a thread?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The plan is to have the Pre-Season Rankings posted the week before Labor Day (so sometime during the last week in August).

      Yes, I'll be making a 3A Boys thread on DyeStat, and also plan to do the same for 4A Girls and Oregon 6A Girls... possibly Oregon 5A boys as well, because that could also be an interesting race.

      Delete
  3. How is Anthoney Armstrong's course record scored 4th below Andrew Gardner's performance? I saw both those races and Armstrong's performance was by far more impressive.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I saw both races as well, and I too was more impressed by Armstrong's, but this doesn't measure what I (and I assume others) would generally call "most impressive".

      Armstrong ran against a pair of All-Americans and it was a battle the whole way to the finish.

      Gardner had less competition.

      Times weren't too different (14:58.4 vs. 15:02.3); Margin of victory, obviously, better for Gardner (14 seconds over second... Weitz and Yorks were MUCH closer); But the important thing, which is what this rating system looks at, is how slow the course ran compared to other courses (as judged by what runners do at this race vs. other races, specifically late-season invites and league/district/regional races and mostly the NXN and FLN races), and adjusting the times for all runners accordingly.

      In short; for whatever reason (and there are plenty of variables), 2012 was a slower course than 2011.

      Delete
    2. Margin of victory? Of course Weitz and Yorks were MUCH closer; they are far better than the athletes that placed 2nd and 3rd place in the 4A race in 2012. Possibly even better than Gardner himself.

      The class of 2012 was a star studded class for Washington. Perhaps it wasn't the course that was slower, but the runners on the course? Not to put anyone down, but time is time, and last time I checked Gardner's state course PR puts him behind Armstrong AND Weitz.

      Delete
    3. Again, so hopefully I'm more clear:

      The ratings are based on what runners run not only at this race, but other races. That is how the course for that meet is adjusted. Not just how fast runners run on the course that day, but how much faster/slower they are on other courses (most specifically NXN-NW, and how those runners at NXN-NW do at NXN, but also looking at how they ran in October for example)

      When I say "course was slower", I don't mean the runners in the race was slower. I mean the runners in the race were slower on that day compared to how they were the rest of their races in the late/post season, suggesting that the course was more difficult (slower) on that day for whatever reason.

      Delete
  4. Rob

    I am curious how you determine how slow the course is. One way is to take the median time. Then you can ratio the times (at least of the first 3 finishers or so) to that median. You can get a median for each race, or get some kind of combined median (for say 4A and 3A classifications).
    I have applied this simple technique to the top 3 finishers in the two biggest boys classifications back to 1988. Based upon that the best performance was Matthew Davis in 1993 14:09/16:12 = .874. It isn't really even close. The next best performance is Greg Kuntz in 1989 14:29/16:22 = .885. There is also Isaac Hawkins in 1996 at .894. Those are all better than any 4A boy has done in the 5K era.
    For 3A boys, Max O'Donoghue-McDonald laid down a .878 in 2006. This is by far the best. However, that is the ratio of his time to the median 3A time. The median 4A time was much faster that year (and normally is). Using the 4A median time you get .897. So that brings up the topic of how do you compare 3A kids with 4A kids (or 2A kids for that matter).
    Using my simple technique, I would put down the best 4A performances as
    1) Davis 1993
    2) Kuntz 1989
    3) Gurry 1989 (2nd place)
    4) Hawkins 1996
    5) Davis (again) 1992

    For 3A I would include
    1) O'Donoghue-McDonald 2006
    2) Tenforde 1998
    3) Weitz 2011
    4) Armstrong 2012
    5) Weitz (again) 2012

    I imagine you use something more sophisticated that a simple ratio of the median time. I would be very interested in your process if you are willing to share it.

    ReplyDelete