Looks like the Washington teams showed up better than expected this weekend. Great to see!
Estimate: 200.0 ~ 14:49
Boys Top 45 Overall:
15:02.00 - Justin Janke - 12 - North Central - 195.6
15:14.90 - Jack Yearian - 12 - Bellarmine Prep - 191.3
15:18.80 - Nathan Beamer - 12 - Arlington - 189.9
15:20.20 - Peter Hogan - 12 - Bishop Blanchet - 189.5
15:22.50 - Nathan Pixler - 12 - Eastlake - 188.7
15:25.00 - James Konugres - 11 - Ballard - 187.9
15:25.90 - Graeme Schroeder - 12 - Tahoma - 187.5
15:28.80 - Zak Kindl - 11 - Lewis and Clark - 186.6
15:29.20 - Phillip Fishburn - 12 - Kamiakin - 186.4
15:31.70 - Sam Sjoberg - 12 - North Central - 185.6
15:32.10 - Tibebu Proctor - 11 - Northwest - 185.5
15:32.30 - Hayden Dressel - 11 - Mt Spokane - 185.4
15:33.80 - Kennan Schrag - 12 - Issaquah - 184.9
15:36.20 - Dylan Holland - 12 - Anacortes - 184.1
15:36.50 - Ryan Gregory - 12 - Gig Harbor - 184.0
15:36.80 - Colton Johnsen - 12 - Sehome - 183.9
15:37.70 - Riley Allsop - 12 - Sehome - 183.6
15:38.00 - James Mwaura - 10 - Lincoln - 183.5
15:38.80 - Cameron Carroll - 12 - Central Kitsap - 183.2
15:39.20 - Nick Laccinole - 12 - Inglemoor - 183.1
15:39.40 - Spencer Stewart - 12 - Eisenhower - 183.0
15:39.50 - Henry Hayes - 12 - Garfield - 183.0
15:40.50 - Keegan Fitzpatrick - 12 - Tahoma - 182.6
15:40.90 - Riley Moore - 9 - Richland - 182.5
15:41.10 - Hunter Simpson - 12 - University - 182.4
15:41.30 - Cullen McEachern - 11 - Kamiak - 182.4
15:41.40 - Nate Pendleton - 10 - Eastlake - 182.3
15:41.60 - Erik Holm - 12 - Joel Ferris - 182.2
15:41.70 - Cameron Wyman - 11 - Bellarmine Prep - 182.2
15:43.40 - Ronan Price - 11 - Eisenhower - 181.6
15:44.10 - Andrew Cooper - 12 - Liberty (Issaquah) - 181.4
15:44.10 - Silas Griffith - 11 - Ridgefield - 181.4
15:44.10 - Amir Ado - 11 - Joel Ferris - 181.4
15:44.30 - Owen Buck - 12 - Ballard - 181.3
15:44.40 - Tamire Proctor - 10 - Northwest - 181.3
15:44.60 - Kenneth Rooks - 10 - College Place - 181.2
15:45.40 - Joe Waskom - 9 - Mt Si - 181.0
15:45.80 - Marques Chacon - 12 - Evergreen (Seattle) - 180.8
15:45.90 - Turlan Morlan - 10 - Gonzaga Prep - 180.8
15:46.00 - Luke Beauchamp - 12 - Interlake - 180.8
15:46.10 - Tom Mikkelson - 12 - Juanita - 180.7
15:46.10 - Dawson Besst - 10 - Tahoma - 180.7
15:46.80 - Ryan Cox - 12 - Bainbridge - 180.5
15:48.80 - Travis Crumpler - 12 - Kamiakin - 179.8
15:49.10 - Jonah Franco - 10 - Kamiakin - 179.7
15:02.00 - Justin Janke - 12 - North Central - 195.6
15:31.70 - Sam Sjoberg - 12 - North Central - 185.6
15:57.70 - Jacob Christner - 11 - North Central - 176.8
16:10.10 - Gabriel Meek - 12 - North Central - 172.6
16:21.00 - Markus Taylor - 10 - North Central - 169.0
16:24.30 - Mica Jones - 12 - North Central - 167.8
16:33.20 - Ryan Frostad - 11 - North Central - 164.8
15:14.90 - Jack Yearian - 12 - Bellarmine Prep - 191.3
15:41.70 - Cameron Wyman - 11 - Bellarmine Prep - 182.2
15:57.80 - Luke Ostrander - 11 - Bellarmine Prep - 176.8
16:07.70 - Spencer Fischer - 10 - Bellarmine Prep - 173.4
16:19.30 - Deven Patel - 10 - Bellarmine Prep - 169.5
16:30.40 - Ben Sherman - 9 - Bellarmine Prep - 165.8
16:53.90 - Will James - 9 - Bellarmine Prep - 157.9
15:39.40 - Spencer Stewart - 12 - Eisenhower - 183.0
15:43.40 - Ronan Price - 11 - Eisenhower - 181.6
15:56.80 - Miguel Vargas - 12 - Eisenhower - 177.1
16:17.90 - Angel Cuevas-Verduzco - 10 - Eisenhower - 170.0
16:25.40 - Alfonso Cuevas - 9 - Eisenhower - 167.5
16:46.90 - Moise Cook - 10 - Eisenhower - 160.2
16:56.70 - Rogelio Mares - 10 - Eisenhower - 156.9
15:41.60 - Erik Holm - 12 - Joel Ferris - 182.2
15:44.10 - Amir Ado - 11 - Joel Ferris - 181.4
16:02.60 - Todd Bloom - 10 - Joel Ferris - 175.2
16:20.30 - Kellen Bulger - 12 - Joel Ferris - 169.2
16:24.60 - Gerard Gaimari - 12 - Joel Ferris - 167.7
16:31.70 - Andrew Potyk - 12 - Joel Ferris - 165.3
16:34.20 - Wilson Ladd - 10 - Joel Ferris - 164.5
15:36.80 - Colton Johnsen - 12 - Sehome - 183.9
15:37.70 - Riley Allsop - 12 - Sehome - 183.6
16:17.20 - Bryce Johnson - 11 - Sehome - 170.2
16:21.10 - Sam Gillman - 12 - Sehome - 168.9
16:25.40 - Logan Franey - 11 - Sehome - 167.5
16:52.00 - Jackson Slesk - 11 - Sehome - 158.5
16:59.30 - Kyler Cruz - 11 - Sehome - 156.0
I see the median time for the 4A boys was very fast this year. 16:26. The median time for the 3A boys was 16:39.3, Both of those are the fastest ever. I think conditions must have been optimum and perhaps the course was short. I also notice that none of the teams were strong this year. I look at the 5 scoring teams times versus the median, and NC was much slower this year compared with last in that regard. I think this may be the year Washington does not get a team to NXN. Since 2012, it seems like NC has really tried to peak late. Maybe they will this year. I am really happy for Tahoma, but I have concerns about their health and past performances at Eagle Island seem doubtful. I hope I am wrong, but I am betting on Crater and Summit this weekend. I like Mountain View, ID earlier, but they may have peaked too soon.
ReplyDeleteThere are some issues with regards to simplistic comparisons such as median times at X race, namely that the talent is not always the same from year to year (even from a median point of view). I'll explain with a chart of some stats I have on file:
DeleteYear All Classes Class 4A Class 3A Class 2A
2015 17:28.29 16:31.94 16:42.70 17:11.71
2014 17:29.50 16:41.04 16:47.96 17:20.04
2013 17:26.99 16:34.55 16:54.77 17:15.93
2012 17:33.79 16:43.32 17:02.85 17:17.83
2011 17:33.59 16:39.66 16:47.64 17:08.81
2010 17:35.56 16:43.32 17:01.63 17:12.50
2009 17:47.87 16:42.76 17:04.85 17:31.41
2008 17:46.71 16:49.61 16:59.87 17:31.60
Now, depending on which race you are looking at, you would come to vastly different conclusions if only looking at the average times (I realize average =/= median, but it's much faster to compute). If you looked at the boys results of all classifications, you would think that the state meet is somehow getting shorter and faster every single year (sans 2013, which was a bit faster than the trendline)! If you look at 4A, you would think that 2015 and 2013 were years where the course was a bit short or conditions were abnormally great while 2008 was a long course or poor conditions. If you look at 3A, you would think that 2011, 2014 and 2015 were abnormally fast and the rest pretty average. If you look at 2A, you would think that conditions were deplorable in 2008/2009 and better in 2010/2011/2015 than the other three years.
However, the conditions at the course have been pretty consistent for several years now. There were minor changes made to the course, but I didn't notice any significant year-to-year changes that weren't intentional changes made by the meet management.
Median and mean state meet times can do a good job of describing how fast the runners were, and comparing it to previous years can describe in some way how that group compares to others. However, there isn't really a strong enough correlation between times ran and speed of the course to base it on that alone. From my perspective, I know that our league was deeper than ever - especially on the girls side - and while our district might not have had a top team that has matched years past, the teams that did make it to state were all fairly competitive. That seemed to be the case for many other areas and classifications in the state, where the state qualifying meets were very competitive, but the top teams just weren't as good as they have been the last few years. I think that is a better explanation of the variance in mean or median times at the state meet than simply how the course compared to previous years: it's more about the runners than the course.
Also, for another example of the differences in talent from year to year...
DeleteDistrict III is generally considered the weakest district in 4A. In 2014, it qualified on it's own, bringing the top 6 teams and 30 individuals to state. In 2015, it renewed it's combining with District IV, which was slotted to qualify 1 less team and 5 less individuals than in 2014. The result of this combination is that higher quality teams and individuals went to state than otherwise would have: District III only qualified 5 teams and 26 individuals while District IV qualified 2 teams and 9 individuals (compared to 2/10 last year). Meanwhile, the qualifying meet that got the extra 1 team and 5 individuals into the state meet field was arguably the deepest district/regional in the 4A state: the Eastern Regional (Hello, Spokane!). That's not going to make a DRASTIC difference in the median or mean, but it would nudge it a bit: Joel Ferris was third in the East and finished fourth at State, while the only two teams that were fairly close to the sixth District III team averaged greater than 200 points more than Ferris at state. In other words, the state meet was much more competitive this year, and times being faster isn't necessarily a symptom of the course being shorter or in better condition.