Sunday, October 2, 2016

Northwest Regional Team Rankings - October 1

With the Alaska state meet in the books, and since I did a quick merge for most of the Southwest, I started wondering how the Northwest rankings would wind up, if I only included the meets from the past couple of weeks. This certainly won't be the best gauge for everyone (e.g. the girls rankings, where Lewis & Clark WA and Edmonds-Woodway WA were both missing one of their front trio of runners the last few meets), but it would be enough to get an idea of where the teams are roughly standing. Here is what I came up with:


  1. 109 - North Central WA - 180.65 @ Bob Firman ID
  2. 175 - Bozeman MT - 177.33 @ Mountain West MT
  3. 180 - Crater OR - 178.02 @ Bob Firman ID
  4. 215 - Skyline ID - 176.59 @ Bob Firman ID
  5. 238 - Bellarmine Prep WA - 174.37 @ Bob Firman ID
  6. 304 - Star Valley WY - 173.49 @ Davis Open Regional UT
  7. 311 - Borah ID - 173.94 @ Bob Firman ID
  8. 312 - West Anchorage AK - 171.06 @ State Meet AK
  9. 336 - Summit OR - 170.20 @ Oxford Classic OR
  10. 345 - Eisenhower WA - 170.21 @ Bellevue WA
  11. 345 - Central Catholic OR - 169.74 @ Meriwether OR
  12. 349 - Lewis and Clark WA - 169.55 @ Mountain West MT
  13. 362 - Tahoma WA - 169.77 @ Sunfair WA
  14. 385 - Lewiston ID - 170.40 @ Bob Firman ID
  15. 401 - Sunset OR - 165.07 @ Nike Portland OR
  16. 402 - South Eugene OR - 168.64 @ Nike Portland OR
  17. 402 - Henry Jackson WA - 169.95 @ Nike Portland OR
  18. 403 - Sugar-Salem ID - 167.98 @ Bob Firman ID
  19. 407 - Rocky Mountain ID - 167.90 @ Bob Firman ID
  20. 413 - Kamiakin WA - 167.13 @ Sunfair WA
  21. 420 - Camas WA - 169.02 @ Nike Portland OR
  22. 423 - Central Valley WA - 167.21 @ Sunfair WA
  23. 432.5 - Jackson Hole WY - 166.45 @ Bob Firman ID
  24. 447 - Interlake WA - 166.17 @ Bob Firman ID
  25. 459 - Glacier Peak WA - 165.96 @ Marysville Twilight WA
  26. 466 - Joel Ferris WA - 166.65 @ Mountain West MT


  1. 120 - Jesuit OR - 125.09 @ Bob Firman ID
  2. 141 - Bozeman MT - 124.48 @ Mountain West MT
  3. 147.5 - Jackson Hole WY - 127.57 @ Bob Firman ID
  4. 168 - Mountain View ID - 122.51 @ Roy Griak MN
  5. 273 - Sunset OR - 116.28 @ Nike Portland OR
  6. 282 - Eagle ID - 114.56 @ Bob Firman ID
  7. 309 - Billings Senior MT - 112.80 @ Mountain West MT
  8. 318 - Summit OR - 109.27 @ Nike Portland OR
  9. 341 - Boise ID - 110.66 @ Bob Firman ID
  10. 341 - Sheldon OR - 108.76 @ Nike Portland OR
  11. 371 - West Valley AK - 106.46 @ State Meet AK
  12. 375 - Madison ID - 107.79 @ Bob Firman ID
  13. 378 - Hellgate MT - 107.58 @ Mountain West MT
  14. 389 - Lewis and Clark WA - 105.69 @ Marysville Twilight WA
  15. 389 - Glacier Peak WA - 104.13 @ Bellevue WA
  16. 409 - Camas WA - 104.10 @ Nike Portland OR
  17. 427 - Mead WA - 102.19 @ Mountain West MT
  18. 430 - Northwest WA - 103.11 @ Nike Portland OR
  19. 431 - Central Valley WA - 103.85 @ Mountain West MT
  20. 435 - Issaquah WA - 101.40 @ Marysville Twilight WA
  21. 443 - Holy Names Academy WA - 105.52 @ Nike Portland OR
  22. 447 - Lincoln OR - 101.18 @ Sunfair WA
  23. 448.5 - Interlake WA - 99.40 @ Bob Firman ID
  24. 452 - Rocky Mountain ID - 100.91 @ Bob Firman ID
  25. 452 - Twin Falls ID - 102.02 @ Bob Firman ID
  26. 461 - North Central WA - 99.03 @ Sunfair WA

notes: I expect that, if Edmonds-Woodway WA and Lewis & Clark WA girls had their full squads healthy and ready to go, they'd jump up to and possibly past Sunset and Eagle (although not necessarily). As such, were this to be actual rankings, I would have them both at least top 10 unless confirmed that their missing runners are out for the rest of the year (very doubtful in E-W's case as this was the first meet Parle has missed). Also, Star Valley WY was hard to include because they haven't really ran much since the Tiger/Grizz ID Invite almost a month ago. Their ratings at the Davis Open Regional is really based on what the Davis UT JV runners ran at Bob Firman vs. what they ran at that meet, so consider it a somewhat questionable, though I think fairly realistic, guess.

There are other teams not included which deserve a look, however I just don't have any recent ratings for them. Laramie WY boys is one that stands out, as they were a little better than #23 Jackson Hole at Liberty Bell CO. Laramie might be a Top 15 or so team. Their girls might be Top 20 as well, and the same for the Cheyenne Central WY girls.

I haven't been looking at ALL the teams around the nation, but based on what I've seen, I would expect that the Northwest's top 5 boys and top 4 girls teams are all comfortably in the US Top 30 this year. I am tempted to say they are all in the top 25, but California is always deep and Utah is looking good once again, so who knows... unfortunately, the national rankings at Milesplit and Dyestat disagree with me: Milesplit, last updated on Sep. 19, has 2 boys (#7 Bozeman, #23 Crater) and 3 girls (#13 Bozeman, #16 Jesuit, #17 Summit) in their top 25's; Dyestat, updated just last week (Sep. 29), has 2 boys (#7 Bozeman, #15 North Central) and 4 girls (#8 Bozeman, #18 Jesuit, #27 Mountain View, #30 Summit) in their Top 30.


  1. Rob, it seems to me either Mountain West ratings are inflated or Sunfair is deflated. Lewis and Clark boys in reality is not faster than Tahoma, Central Valley, and Kamiakin nor are they that close to Bozeman and Eisenhower. I understand how you do speed ratings and that it is not a perfect science nor can you simply adjust it just because you want to. I am curious what Bozeman's and LC's speed ratings were at Sunfair ... if the difference between the two races are great (as I suspect) then likely you have Sun Fair ratings too low. Love the posts you have been making however, great and fun reads!

    1. Before I get into the ratings: I am pretty confident that Lewis & Clark ran MUCH better at Mountain West than they did at Sunfair: Bozeman's top 5 ran 77:32 at Mountain West vs. 78:35 at Sunfair, while Lewis & Clark's top 5 (sans Kindl, who DNS @ Sunfair) ran 80:14 at Mountain West vs. 82:05 at Sunfair. I agree that Lewis & Clark probably isn't better than Tahoma, CV or Kamiakin. I don't think Sunfair (the only meet for CV and Kamiakin over the last 2 weeks) necessarily creates the best opportunity to run fast as a team, though (with every runner being in a separate race) and so it doesn't necessarily give the best picture of what teams are capable of. That doesn't explain Tahoma, although maybe they just aren't as good as we think they are (they weren't the top team at Bellevue either, as Eisenhower was stronger there, so IMO the results of late hasn't shown them being any better than NW#13).

      Lewis & Clark ratings at Mountain West (left) vs. Sunfair (right):

      Spencer Swaim: 176.0 vs. 171.8
      Zak Kindl: 175.5 vs. DNS
      Patrick Korus: 168.7 vs. 162.6
      Jackson McFaul: 167.2 vs. 161.6
      Carter Ledwith: 160.3 vs. 159.3
      Wil Smith: 158.5 vs. 156.8
      Brett Bergler: 155.0 vs. 147.0

      Bozeman ratings at Mountain West (left) vs. Sunfair (right):

      Chase Equall: 188.3 vs. 187.6 (Bozeman #1)
      Leonard McComas: 177.9 vs. 173.8 (Bozeman #4)
      Duncan Hamilton: 176.3 vs. 174.8 (Bozeman #3)
      Orrin Clark: 174.8 vs. 176.1 (Bozeman #2)
      Riley Collins: 169.4 vs. 171.9 (Bozeman #5)
      Dylan Humberger: 164.9 vs. 166.5 (Bozeman #6)
      Simon Rosenzweig: 157.1 vs. 152.6 (Bozeman #8)

      and, just for fun, Bozeman's girls:

      Piper Meuwissen: 134.0 vs. 135.5 (Bozeman #2)
      Camila Noe: 132.5 vs. 135.9 (Bozeman #1)
      Kenenni Wiegand: 131.8 vs. 126.5 (Bozeman #3)
      Laina Hall: 113.3 vs. 107.4 (Bozeman #7)
      Zoe Eberspecher: 110.8 vs. 109.5 (Bozeman #5)
      Alex Moore: 110.6 vs. 103.9 (Bozeman #8)
      Lucy Wagner: 108.2 vs. 113.2 (Bozeman #4)

      I could certainly buy the idea that Sunfair's ratings are a little low, though I don't think that (the opposite) is the case for Mountain West. Franklin Park typically is rated somewhere around 200.0 ~ 14:45, so 14:35 is a little faster than usual but that was how the numbers best fit.

  2. I agree completely that Sunfair's format often does hinder fastest times for all 7 runners. I disagree that LC ran faster at Mountain West compared to Sunfair relatively. The team difference was 1:51 compared to Bozeman's difference of 1:03. Kindl alone is likely the difference in that 48 seconds. And I don't have to tell you how fast that golf course in Missoula is. But Richland on Saturday Richland along with Hole in the Wall will shed better light on rankings and speed ratings.

    1. Bozeman was 161.42 seconds ahead of L&C at Mountain West WITHOUT including Kindl, and was 209.85 ahead at Sunfair (obviously, without Kindl). Bozeman gained 48 seconds on Lewis & Clark. Or, if you wanted to include Kindl in Lewis & Clark's Mountain West time, they were 2:40.71 slower at Sunfair compared to Bozeman's 1:03.13. Kindl doesn't make up more than 1:37 by himself.

      There were 59 runners that ran both Mountain West and Sunfair. On average, those 59 ran 1.62% slower at Sunfair. If you remove the outliers, there were 56 runners that averaged 1.54% slower at Sunfair. The current rating has Sunfair being 1.20% slower. If you assume Mountain West is the more "correctly" rated race, the XC only comparison would put Sunfair at a mid-14:38. As I said before, I would be fine if the rating were a little higher (IMO even as much as ~14:40 would be fine, which would be ~1.72% slower), but that isn't how the numbers I used to rate the race came out and isn't a very significant a difference at all, and wouldn't really change much with regards to how Lewis & Clark measures up compared to the other Sunfair teams (both Kamiakin and Central Valley would still be behind L&C, though Tahoma would move up possibly ahead of the Eisenhower team that beat them at Bellevue)

      There are some good races coming up this weekend. I've been planning on writing up a post for a brief summary, since the first big meet is on Thursday.

  3. Rob, By team difference of 1:51 I was referring to the difference of LC's team times comparing Sunfair to Mountain West and not the time Bozeman beat LC by. Perhaps I could've made that clearer. Nothing against LC, I think they have a shot at getting on the podium at state, but they are not in Bozeman's league with or w/o Kindl, therefore I wouldn't be making such a point. I guess my point is that I simply thought the speed ratings for Sunfair were low. I believe that you will see that play our through the results at Richland Saturday. I think the top teams from Sunfair will do pretty well including Tahoma, CV, Kamiakin, and Ike. They should be ranked higher, as should South Eugene probably. I think those 4 WA schools I mentioned aren't that far behind Bell Prep if at all. But we shall see.

    1. I figured that was your intent, but that is incorrect. Again, LC's time at Mountain West was 79:24.58 with Kindl. At Sunfair, they ran 82:05.29. That's a difference of 2:40.71, not 1:51. The 1:51 that you keep referring to is, as I said, what the difference would have been WITHOUT Kindl at Mountain West. Of the runners that ran both races, almost all of the runners that slowed down the most were from L&C, particularly L&C's #1-3 runners.

      L&C did not run nearly as well at Sunfair as they did at Mountain West. I certainly agree that L&C is not near Bozeman's level with or without Kindl: they showed that at Mountain West, and can easily be interpreted by Sunfair. The rankings above show that as well: Bozeman with half the score and averaging 10 points better (about 30 seconds) with Kindl included.

      I agree it is possible the Sunfair ratings were slightly low. Said so already. By any measure, though, L&C wouldn't have slipped behind the other Sunfair teams aside from possibly Tahoma, which would also cause more confusion from other people as Tahoma would then potentially also move ahead of the Eisenhower team that had beaten them head to head the week before.

      Good news is, Richland will give the Sunfair teams another chance to run well. Perhaps CV and Kamiakin will take advantage of that opportunity.