I'll break down the average points earned from each school, list the Top-16 in each classification, and separate the rest of the schools into Tier 2 ("Good enough that they should stay in this classification" -- roughly the top third of the classification), Tier 3 ("Consider staying in this classification, but wouldn't hurt to drop" -- roughly the top half of the classification), Tier 4 ("Consider dropping so their athletic programs could find more success" -- roughly the bottom half of the classification), or Tier 5 ("Probably should drop so their athletic programs can have some measure of success" -- roughly the bottom third of the classification and clearly below the middle of the pack programs) - all of those categories only matter if they are in a position to choose whether they should opt-up or not.
I'm not going to both trying to separate boys and girls, and I will double the points for the two single-gender schools (O'Dea is a boys-only private school and Holy Names Academy is a girls-only private school, both in the Seattle area's Metro League).
Schools highlighted in
RED might potentially be
eligible to drop in classification; schools highlighted in
BLUE are probably going to be moved up a classification.
4A Top-16:
- 691.7 - Camas (GSHL)
- 495.0 - Issaquah (KingCo)
- 455.0 - Tahoma (NPSL)
- 426.7 - Skyline (KingCo)
- 368.3 - Bellarmine Prep (SPSL)
- 355.0 - Henry Jackson (WESCO)
- 345.0 - Central Valley (GSL)
- 340.0 - Redmond (KingCo)
- 326.7 - Curtis (SPSL)
- 320.0 - Union (GSHL)
- 320.0 - Puyallup (SPSL)
- 303.3 - Newport-Bellevue (KingCo)
- 300.0 - Richland (MCC)
- 291.7 - Lewis & Clark (GSL)
- 286.7 - Mead (GSL)
- 281.7 - Glacier Peak (WESCO)
Note: Redmond was in 3A in 2016 and 2017, but notable that they also averaged 335 points/year in that classification so there was minimal difference (they actually did better once they moved up).
Tier 2: Kamiak (278.3), Kentwood (271.7), Skyview (268.3), Lake Stevens (260.0), Wenatchee (256.7), Gonzaga Prep (241.7)
Tier 3: Woodinville (233.3), Sumner (228.3), Eastlake (218.3), Chiawana (206.7), Rogers-Puyallup (200.0), Hanford (193.3), Kentridge (181.7), Moses Lake (176.7), Federal Way (176.7), Auburn Riverside (171.7), South Kitsap (168.3), Eastmont (163.3)
Tier 4: West Valley-Yakima (150.0), Olympia (150.0), Pasco (145.0), Bothell (133.3), Walla Walla (131.7), Mount Si (125.0), Sunnyside (120.0), Todd Beamer (118.3), Kennedy Catholic (118.3), Thomas Jefferson (113.3), Inglemoor (108.3)
Tier 5: Monroe (98.3), Kentlake (93.3), Emerald Ridge (90.0), Auburn Mountainview (90.0), Eisenhower (83.3), Joel Ferris (83.3), North Creek (75.0), Battle Ground (71.7), Graham-Kapowsin (70.0), Enumclaw (70.0), University (63.3), Hazen (63.3), AC Davis (60.0), Mount Rainier (50.0), Mount Vernon (45.0), Decatur (40.0), Cascade-Everett (23.3), Mariner (20.0), Kent Meridian (13.3), Auburn (3.3), Heritage (0.0)
3A Top-16:
- 666.7 - Holy Names Academy (Metro)
- 625.0 - Kamiakin (MCC)
- 540.0 - O'Dea (Metro)
- 536.7 - Gig Harbor (SSL)
- 513.3 - Mercer Island (KingCo)
- 498.3 - Lakeside-Seattle (Metro)
- 478.3 - Bellevue (KingCo)
- 445.0 - Mount Spokane (GSL)
- 380.0 - Garfield (Metro)
335.0 - Redmond - moved up to 4A in 2018
- 335.0 - Edmonds-Woodway (WESCO)
- 320.0 - Interlake (KingCo)
- 315.0 - Snohomish (WESCO)
- 268.3 - Lake Washington (KingCo)
- 263.3 - Seattle Prep (Metro)
- 250.0 - Prairie (GSHL)
- 248.3 - Capital (SSL)
Tier 2: Roosevelt (238.3), North Central (236.7).
Tier 3: Yelm (211.7), Eastside Catholic (211.7), Bainbridge (208.3), Peninsula (206.7), Bonney Lake (201.7), Mountain View (198.3), Central Kitsap (198.3), Lincoln (195.0), Stadium (191.7), Shorecrest (181.7), Kelso (180.0), Wilson (171.7), Southridge (171.7), Arlington (160.0), Bishop Blanchet (158.3)
Tier 4: Bethel (143.3), Stanwood (140.0), Timberline (136.7), Ballard (133.3), Squalicum (116.7), Everett (115.0), Evergreen-Vancouver (111.7), Shorewood (108.3), West Seattle (108.3), Kennewick (106.7)
Tier 5: Rainier Beach (98.3), North Thurston (93.3), Ferndale (91.7), Lakes (88.3), Lynnwood (80.0), Ingraham (68.3), Meadowdale (68.3), Shadle Park (63.3), Nathan Hale (63.3), Marysville-Pilchuck (60.0), Hudson's Bay (60.0), Shelton (46.7), Hermiston OR (45.0), Juanita (41.7), Oak Harbor (30.0), Spanaway Lake (16.7), Cleveland (13.3), Chief Sealth (10.0), Marysville-Getchell (6.7), Franklin (6.7), Mount Tahoma (6.7), Fort Vancouver (3.3), Rogers-Spokane (3.3)
2A Top-16:
- 715.0 - Liberty-Issaquah (KingCo)
- 568.3 - Sehome (NWC)
- 491.7 - Selah (CWAC)
- 490.0 - Columbia River (GSHL)
- 441.7 - North Kitsap (Olympic)
- 383.3 - Ellensburg (CWAC)
- 370.0 - Bellingham (NWC)
- 353.3 - W.F. West (EvCo)
- 345.0 - White River (SPSL)
- 335.0 - Ridgefield (GSHL)
- 330.0 - Fife (SPSL)
- 318.3 - Lynden (NWC)
- 310.0 - Olympic (Olympic)
- 300.0 - Pullman (GNL)
- 281.7 - Tumwater (EvCo)
- 281.7 - Sequim (Olympic)
Tier 2: Port Angeles (276.7), Archbishop Murphy (265.0), Burlington-Edison (263.3), Anacortes (263.3)
Tier 3: Sammamish (220.0), Cheney (206.7), Black Hills (195.0), Steilacoom (193.3), Washougal (190.0), West Valley-Spokane (185.0), Woodland (178.3), Mark Morris (173.3), Kingston (155.0), East Valley-Yakima (148.3), East Valley-Spokane (146.7), Lindbergh (135.0), Toppenish (131.7)
Tier 4: Ephrata (121.7), Highline (116.7), Hockinson (113.3), Cedarcrest (113.3), Othello (106.7), Clarkston (103.3), Franklin Pierce (101.7), Mountlake Terrace (98.3), Orting (96.7)
Tier 5: Foster (76.7), Sedro-Woolley (68.3), Renton (66.7), Aberdeen (63.3), Foss (63.3), Wapato (60.0), R.A. Long (56.7), Centralia (53.3), River Ridge (51.7), Eatonville (51.7), Prosser (50.0), Washington (43.3), Lakewood (35.0), Bremerton (33.3), Blaine (30.0), Grandview (26.7), North Mason (23.3), Quincy (20.0), Clover Park (13.3), Tyee (6.7), Granite Falls (3.3), Rochester (0.0), Evergreen-Seattle (0.0)
Overall trends:
4A NPSL teams that are opting up, or would be opting-up, are almost all struggling to be competitive at getting to or competing well at the state level (Federal Way and Auburn Riverside are the only programs in the top half of the classification, while 8 are in the bottom third). In fact, the only league that comes remotely close to being as underperforming is the 2A SPSL (which also has 8 programs in the bottom third of the classification, though that number will drop to 7 if not 6 should Tyee drop to 1A). While it might make sense for reasons beyond athletic program competitiveness for some of the NPSL teams to continue to opt-up (such as the Kent schools staying in the same league) if they don't go the split-class league route, by and large those teams would greatly benefit from dropping down to 3A, and in the process the state would benefit as well (it would leave more room for stronger programs to make state from smaller areas, including but not limited to the GSL).
4A CBBN teams also typically struggle, and would competitively be better off in 3A. Same for several of the Seattle Metro public school programs, though that tradition of opting up to stay together has been going for several decades at this point so even if it would benefit the kids in those programs to drop in classification (and have a much better shot at not only competing well at state, but simply getting TO the state stage) it is probably unlikely to happen due to long-established tradition.
Most Underperforming Districts (based on % of total points scored vs. proportion of classification's schools): 2A District 3 (-7.5%), 3A District 1 (-5.7%), 4A District 3 (-5.4%), 3A District 3 (-2.6%), 4A District 6 (-2.3%), 3A District 4 (-2.2%), 2A District 5 (-2.0%)
The two common threads that explain most of those underperforming districts: [1] Schools that are or might be opting up influencing the strength of the district and the allocations for the whole state, or [2] schools that are now scheduled to drop down due to socio-economic factors (unless they decide to opt up to stay in their classification). In District 3, there was the aforementioned NPSL teams that are opting up to 4A rather than staying in 3A or in some cases even 2A. In District 2, the Metro League schools as mentioned above are mostly 2A, and those 11 schools would displace 1 state allocation from both District 3 and District 5, the only 2A Districts included above (though 2A-3 would still be underperforming, it would be closer to 3% rather than 7%).
For 3A District 4, and 4A District 6, both leagues (GSHL and CBBN) are slated to lose multiple members due to the socio-economic adjustment, which would essentially if not entirely erase their performance deficits.
The only clear exception to that is 3A District 1, which only includes one team opting up to 4A (Cascade-Everett), and that 2A-3 would still be underperforming (just not to nearly the same degree) even considering those factors above unless Federal Way and Kennedy/Bellarmine actually dropped to 2A (which seems both unlikely and unreasonable, as Bellarmine is already one of the elite 4A programs and Federal Way among the top half of 4A or would probably be elite in 3A, while Kennedy would probably also be in the top half of 3A as well).
If you take a look at how the districts across the state would vary in competitiveness without any schools opting up versus what we see today, it becomes very clear that the state would be far better balanced between the districts and state qualifying meets/tournaments as a whole. That's not to say that there aren't programs which should continue to opt-up to larger classifications (such as Bellarmine Prep, Mead, Newport-Bellevue, Gonzaga Prep, O'Dea, Lakeside-Seattle, Seattle Prep, Archbishop Murphy and maybe Eastside Catholic/Woodinville/Eastlake -- by the way, interesting note that every one of those schools are quite affluent with Mead at 26.2% is the only public school in the group with over 25% in terms of Free/Reduced Lunch ratio, which is still 20% below the state average ... that adds further validity to the OSAA/WIAA's implementing a socio-economic factor in the classification process if there was still any doubt), but it does point to how there are far too many programs that do (if athletic competition is the primary factor in moving up, which won't always be the case - such as Rogers-Spokane who could potentially drop to 2A next year but would probably be better served to opt up due to the combination of history and geography)
Now... imagine for a moment if those NPSL schools stayed in 3A instead of 4A:
-Less 4A State spots would be going to an underperforming region, leaving more teams from stronger districts to fill out the field;
-3A District 3 would be much more competitive for their spots to state (and the 4A teams dropping to 3A would be more competitive comparatively), and while they would also get more spots, there would be even more State spots available (because there would be more schools in the classification, enough to raise the State field to 20 teams rather than 16, which more than offsets the additional 2-3 spots for the suddenly more competitive SW region)... something to consider for NPSL ADs wanting to provide the best competitive opportunity possible for their athletes (where sending a team to finish Top 10/15/20 in 3A would be better than not sending a team in 4A).
