With the combination of the new amendments to enrollment counts, one might expect some significant changes in the size of classifications... but that might not end up being an accurate expectation. Using 2016 enrollment figures as the base of comparison for the changes, just how drastic is the difference going to be?
The new 4A Cut-off will be 1300 after adjustments. The only changes that would have occurred was that Kamiakin, Mountain View, and Timberline would have been moved up from 3A to 4A, leaving 4A with 69 schools rather than 66.
The new 3A Cut-off will be 900 after adjustments. The only changes would have been the loss of the 3 schools above to 4A, while 5 schools would drop to 2A (Fort Vancouver, Mount Tahoma, Rogers-Spokane, Hudson's Bay and Lincoln) while 4 schools would move up from 2A (Mountlake Terrace, Tumwater, Columbia River, Cheney) and up to 7 would drop from 4A (Heritage, Mount Vernon, Eisenhower, AC Davis, Kent-Meridian, Pasco, Sunnyside). I would assume that Rogers would opt-up to 3A to remain in the GSL rather than travelling to Pullman and Clarkston for half of their league meets/games, and not sure if Lincoln would as well (geography wouldn't be an issue, but Lincoln has a good enough athletic program that they might be on the fence about wanting to stay in 3A rather than drop to 2A - more on that later). The 4A teams potentially dropping down is a bigger question, and will be the key development to track as it will have significance influence on the state as a whole. I would imagine Heritage and Mount Vernon would drop to 3A, but the decision of the other schools are part of the key developments to watch this winter as mentioned in the last post. 3A was 66 schools, and these changes would result in anywhere from 58 to 70 schools in the classification.
The new 2A Cut-off will be 450 after adjustments. The losses from 2A would be limited to four CWAC teams (Toppenish, Grandview, Quincy, Wapato) and potentially Tyee dropping to 1A in size (though Tyee may opt-up to 2A to stay in the same league as fellow Highline school district members even though their athletic programs has significantly struggled), and the 4 schools moving up to 3A. There were 64 schools in the classification in 2016, and these changes would have dropped the class to a total of anywhere from 55 to 60.
The new 1A Cut-off will be 225 after adjustments. The changes would be the 4-5 teams dropping from 2A, plus up to 10 teams (Stevenson, Charles Wright, Cle Elum-Roslyn, Columbia-Burbank, Okanogan, Jenkins-Chewelah, Granger, River View, Highland, Warden) that would be able to drop down to 2B - though I think many of those programs would opt-up to stay in 1A. There were 57 schools in the classification, and I think it would probably have ended up with around 55, but that is largely a guess.
In short, while there would have been some changes made to the 2016 landscape, the size of the classifications would still be roughly as equal as they were in 2006-2010 (or maybe even as late as 2012?) following the addition of the sixth classification, despite the process at that time designed to ensure the same number of schools in every classification.
Two more posts coming up about the WIAA Reclassification, but one will be on hold for a couple weeks. Next post, I'll look into the 2A-4A Scholastic Cup results since 2016 to talk about how competitive the athletic programs around the state have been. (The Scholastic Cup is WIAA's equivalent to a Directors Cup in the NCAA - it includes both athletic and scholastic state placings, but I'll only include the athletic side in the analysis)
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