Every year, it seems that some teams that deserve to be in contention for a Top-10 finish at NXR opt to not travel to the meet, and individuals that could finish in the Top 25 or so end up sitting out as well. This post is meant to give a gauge as to roughly how good teams/individuals in the past have needed to be in order to compete at that kind of level at the regional race. I will include ratings, equivalent 3200m times and estimated XC times on an 'average' difficulty championship course.
For the boys, a Top-10 NXR-NW team has typically been somewhere around a team average of 170 (rating - which adjusts for how slow the course runs), which is roughly on par with somewhere around a 9:50 track 3200m or a 16:30 team average (+/- depending on how fast the course is).
To be competitive with the rest of the NXR-NW field, teams have generally had to be at least a 165 rating, which is roughly on par with around a 10:00 on the track or 16:45 in XC. So, if a team is at least that fast, then a trip to NXR should maybe be considered -- slower than that, and competing as a team might not be worth it (unless it is a young team and they want to experience the atmosphere in preparation for better seasons in the future).
Individually, it's been around an 188 (9:20ish and 15:35ish) for a Top-25 finish and around a 180 (9:35 and 16:00) for a Top-50 finish at the regional level.
On the girls side, a Top-10 NXR-NW team has typically been somewhere around a team average of 115, which is roughly on par with somewhere around an 11:40 on the track and 19:15ish on the course.
To be competitive with the rest of the NXR-NW field, teams have generally had to be at least around a 105, which is roughly on par with an 11:50 / 19:45.
However, it is worth noting that the girls field has been MUCH more variable, and some years a team that averages closer to 100 or a 12:00 or a 20:00 is still very much competitive, and other years there might be 15 teams that are under the 115.0/11:40/19:15 marks. For whatever reason, more of the top girls teams have not run in the past.
The individuals side on the girls has typically been strong, however, and gives a better idea of how fast a runner needs to be. Top-25 has typically been around a 135 (10:55ish/18:15ish), and the Top-50 has typically been around a 125 (11:10ish/18:45ish).
Here is a quick list of the teams that have already ran those kinds of times this season. This list is NOT all-inclusive, it will only have the larger regional invites that I already looked at:
Boys Teams (20):
WA 4A: Camas, Henry Jackson, Lewis & Clark, Tahoma
WA 3A: Bishop Blanchet, Kamiakin, North Central, Rogers (Spokane)
OR 6A: Franklin, Jesuit, Sherwood, South Eugene
OR 5A: Ashland
MT 2A: Bozeman, Hellgate
WY 3A: Star Valley
ID 4A: Idaho Falls, Kuna, Pocatello, Preston
Girls Teams (23):
WA 4A: Bellarmine Prep, Camas, Central Valley, Lewis & Clark, Redmond, Tahoma
WA 3A: North Central
OR 6A: Jesuit, Lincoln, South Eugene, Summit
OR 5A: Corvallis
MT 2A: Bozeman, Flathead, Helena, Hellgate
ID 5A: Boise, Eagle, Mountain View, Timberline (Boise)
ID 4A: Post Falls
AK 4A: South Anchorage, West Valley
Next week is a big week in the region, with the Idaho and Hawai'i State meets as well as the State Qualifying meets in Oregon and Washington. Also of note, this weekend was the state meets in Montana and Wyoming. A quick note on how those two championship meets went:
Montana Boys: Bozeman and Hellgate ended up tied with 65 points in the 2A Championship, with Bozeman winning the tie-breaker as well as being slightly faster and coming out ahead in a Power Merge of all the classifications. Both teams showed once again they are quality teams deserving to be in the NXR Championship field. Glacier's Simon Hill (2A Champion in 15:51), CMR's Connor O'Hara (2A #5 in 16:10) and Fergus' Sam Fulbright (1A Champion in 16:11) were other notable finishers.
Montana Girls: Bozeman again out-dueled Hellgate to win the 2A team title 38-60, with Helena and Flathead also finishing strong. The Top 3 teams showed they certainly belong in the NXR Championship field, and probably Flathead as well. Individuals of note included Hamilton's Brynnli Poulson (1A Champion in 18:17), Billings Senior's Elena Vandersloot (2A #4 in 18:20), Sentinel's Brooke Stayner (2A #7 in 18:49) and Billings Skyview's Emberlyn Hoffman-Gaschk (2A #8 in 18:49).
Wyoming Boys: Star Valley ran away with the 3A title, and Sheridan won the 4A crown. Star Valley is among the best regional teams, and Sheridan seems on the edge of the NW Top 20-25 but with a State Championship to their credit maybe deserve a spot more than similarly fast teams from other states. Individuals of note included Cheyenne Central's Trevor Stephens (4A Champion in 16:27) and Mountain View's Travis Harmon (3A Runner-up in 16:31).
Wyoming Girls: As was the case on the boys side, the top 2 girls teams were in different classifications as Natrona County won the 4A title and Cody won the 3A title. While neither team appears to be threats to finish in the Top 10 of the region, both teams might end up on the edge of consideration for who should be included in the Championship field. The biggest story out of Wyoming is that Rawlins standout Sydney Thorvaldson continues to be among the nation's elite, winning the 3A Championship with a time of 17:33 on a somewhat slow course. That time was 1:40 ahead of the next fastest girl and would have placed just outside the Top-25 for all classifications combined on the boys side.
Also worth noting, though it happened nearly a month ago now, was the Alaska State Championship. I already mentioned the notable teams/individuals in a previous post, but it is worth putting alongside the Montana/Wyoming State recaps.
The Dimond boys team is in a similar position to Sheridan WY in that they are on the cusp of the NW Top 20-25 and have a State Championship to their credit. They are also led by one of the better individuals in the region in Santiago Prosser. Two other boys individuals that looked good at the state meet were Anchorage Christian's Tristian Merchant (3A Champion in 15:28) and Service's Alexander Maurer (4A Runner-up in 15:38).
On the girls side, both South Anchorage and West Valley looked solid in their state Championship duel with South Anchorage winning the title and West Valley being the faster team. West Valley's Kendall Kramer (17:39) and Juneau-Douglas' Sadie Tuckwood (18:13) are good enough to contend for an NXN qualifying spot and although she had a bad race at state, Eagle River's Emily Walsh is another Alaskan individual to keep an eye on as she ran well at the Hole in the Wall invite in Washington a week later.
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