Monday, October 28, 2019

Western States Power Merge - Girls

Here's a look at how the top state meet performances compare across the various Western states (NW, SW, and CA) as they occur. So far, that includes 5 State Championship races: Utah and Colorado from the NXR-Southwest region; Alaska, Montana and Wyoming from the NXR-Northwest region. The next state will be Idaho this weekend, and a slew of states (Washington, Oregon, New Mexico and Nevada) on Nov. 9. I'll list the Top 50 individuals and the Top 22 teams via the power merge. A note on how I will score this: all times are set to a standard championship course (where a 200.0 rating = 15:00), all times rounded to the nearest whole second. Ties remain unbroken. The first round is all teams scored together, the second round is removing any teams not in the Top 40 of the full merge, the third round is removing any team not in the Top 30, and the final round is the Top 22 teams remaining. As a reminder, the team standings in this merge will NOT always match the team standings in the actual meet - this will be a MUCH higher quality field, and in some cases bigger or smaller than the state meet field, and as such elite teams are significantly more rewarded for having front runners than they are in actual state championship races (re: there are more runners up front to displace scorers, meaning scoring up front plays a more equivalent role).

ROUGH 200.0 State Championship Ratings estimates:

Southwest = Utah 15:00, Colorado 15:30
Northwest = Alaska 14:45, Montana 15:05, Wyoming 15:25

Top 22 Teams:
  1.  91.5 - Niwot CO - 90:57 (CO 4A Champion)
  2. 135.5 - Lone Peak UT - 91:59 (UT 6A Champion)
  3. 162.0 - Bozeman MT - 93:13 (MT 2A Champion)
  4. 172.0 - Arapahoe CO - 93:10 (CO 5A Champion)
  5. 172.5 - Battle Mountain CO - 93:16 (CO 4A Runner-up)
  6. 233.5 - Cherry Creek CO - 93:38 (CO 5A Runner-up)
  7. 240.5 - Hellgate MT - 94:09 (MT 2A Runner-up)
  8. 250.5 - Springville UT - 94:54 (UT 5A Champion)
  9. 266.0 - Air Academy CO - 95:07 (CO 4A Third Place)
  10. 329.0 - Durango CO - 95:33 (CO 4A Fourth Place)
  11. 333.0 - Davis UT - 95:51 (UT 6A Third Place)
  12. 343.0 - Valor Christian CO - 95:28 (CO 5A Sixth Place)
  13. 344.0 - American Fork UT - 96:19 (UT 6A Runner-up)
  14. 349.0 - Classical Academy CO - 95:39 (CO 3A Champion)
  15. 352.5 - Palmer Ridge CO - 96:08 (CO 4A Fifth Place)
  16. 361.0 - Cherokee Trail CO - 95:57 (CO 5A Third Place)
  17. 364.0 - Farmington UT - 96:09 (UT 5A Runner-up)
  18. 386.5 - Helena MT - 96:20 (MT 2A Third Place)
  19. 389.5 - Fairview CO - 96:48 (CO 5A Fifth Place)
  20. 396.0 - Mountain Vista CO - 96:54 (CO 5A Fourth Place)
  21. 401.5 - Pine View UT - 96:51 (UT 4A Champion)
  22. 406.5 - Broomfield CO - 97:12 (CO 5A Seventh Place)
Honorable Mention (the 18 teams that made the Top-40 cut): Centaurus CO, Corner Canyon UT, Denver East CO, Desert Hills UT, Eagle Valley CO, Faith Christian CO, Flathead MT, Golden CO, Layton UT, Mountain View UT, Natrona County WY, Park City UT, Regis Jesuit CO, Skyline UT, South Anchorage AK, Thompson Valley CO, West Valley AK, Westlake UT

Top 50 Individuals:
  1. 17:04 - Sydney Thorvaldson, 11 - Rawlins WY
  2. 17:25 - Sierra Bower, 11 - Basalt CO
  3. 17:37 - Samrawit Dishon, 12 - Niwot CO
  4. 17:37 - Riley Stewart, 10 - Cherry Creek CO
  5. 17:40 - Samantha Blair, 10 - Eagle Valley CO
  6. 17:44 - Kylie Hartnett, 10 - Helena MT
  7. 17:49 - Cameron McConnell, 10 - Cherokee Trail CO
  8. 17:52 - Joslin Blair, 12 - Eagle Valley CO
  9. 17:54 - Brooke Wilson, 9 - Valor Christian CO
  10. 17:56 - Kendall Kramer, 12 - West Valley AK
  11. 17:56 - Eliza Arrington, 11 - Lone Peak UT
  12. 17:57 - Carlee Hansen, 11 - Woods Cross UT
  13. 17:57 - Emma Stutzman, 9 - Pomona CO
  14. 17:58 - Terra Trom, 12 - Bozeman MT
  15. 17:58 - Abby Kendrick, 11 - Hellgate MT
  16. 17:58 - Madeleine Burns, 12 - Durango CO
  17. 18:00 - Anna Martin, 12 - Lehi UT
  18. 18:01 - Taylor Whitfield, 11 - Valor Christian CO
  19. 18:01 - Ella Johnson, 10 - Glenwood Springs CO
  20. 18:08 - Hope Preston, 11 - Davis UT
  21. 18:08 - Sawyer Wilson, 9 - Classical Academy CO
  22. 18:08 - Ava Escorcia, 9 - Arapahoe CO
  23. 18:08 - Ava Mitchell, 9 - Arapahoe CO
  24. 18:09 - Amelia Philofsky, 10 - Niwot CO
  25. 18:10 - Brynnli Poulsen, 11 - Hamilton MT
  26. 18:10 - Morgan Jensen, 12 - Alta UT
  27. 18:10 - Hope Stark, 10 - Cheyenne Mountain CO
  28. 18:11 - Addison Price, 9 - Cherry Creek CO
  29. 18:12 - Eliza Mason, 10 - Lone Peak UT
  30. 18:13 - Elena Vandersloot, 12 - Billings Senior MT
  31. 18:13 - Grace Johnson, 12 - Battle Mountain CO
  32. 18:14 - Lilly Lavier, 12 - Alamosa CO
  33. 18:14 - Reagan Gardner, 11 - Lone Peak UT
  34. 18:16 - Elisabeth Ferrell, 11 - Farmington UT
  35. 18:18 - Caila Odekirk, 10 - Hurricane UT
  36. 18:18 - Sami Lee, 12 - Weber UT
  37. 18:18 - Elliot Pribramsky, 11 - Battle Mountain CO
  38. 18:20 - MacKenzie Meldrum, 12 - Lone Peak UT
  39. 18:20 - Madison Shults, 9 - Niwot CO
  40. 18:21 - Sage Brooks, 11 - Hellgate MT
  41. 18:22 - Ella Johns, 9 - Fort Collins CO
  42. 18:23 - Taylor James, 11 - Niwot CO
  43. 18:25 - Kylie Simshauser, 11 - Florence CO
  44. 18:27 - Jocelyn Millican, 9 - Palmer Ridge CO
  45. 18:28 - Kennedy Mcdonald, 10 - Classical Academy CO
  46. 18:28 - Joelle McDonald, 12 - Niwot CO
  47. 18:29 - Elizabeth Schweiker, 12 - Ralston Valley CO
  48. 18:32 - Sadie Tuckwood, 12 - Juneau-Douglas AK
  49. 18:34 - Isalina Colsman, 12 - Regis Jesuit CO
  50. 18:35 - Tristan Spence, 10 - Central (G.J.) CO

Note: FWIW, potential At-Large Teams are probably around 93:45 for team time, and around 17:45 for individuals (this will include significantly more than the 4 teams and 5 individuals selected throughout the nation, but that's essentially the low bar equivalent estimate to be competitive for a spot out of NXR). That's why those teams/individuals are bolded above - if they repeat or exceed those performances at their NXR meet, they belong in the conversation. That may seem like a lot, but remember that team time isn't everything and that the Southwest is often one of, if not THE, strongest regions in the nation - and that is more than 90% due to the combination of Utah and Colorado as they are both among the strongest states (particularly Utah boys and Colorado girls).

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