Monday, October 28, 2019

Western States Power Merge - Boys

Here's a look at how the top state meet performances compare across the various Western states (NW, SW, and CA) as they occur. So far, that includes 5 State Championship races: Utah and Colorado from the NXR-Southwest region; Alaska, Montana and Wyoming from the NXR-Northwest region. The next state will be Idaho this weekend, and a slew of states (Washington, Oregon, New Mexico and Nevada) on Nov. 9. I'll list the Top 50 individuals and the Top 22 teams via the power merge. A note on how I will score this: all times are set to a standard championship course (where a 200.0 rating = 15:00), all times rounded to the nearest whole second. Ties remain unbroken. The first round is all teams scored together, the second round is removing any teams not in the Top 40 of the full merge, the third round is removing any team not in the Top 30, and the final round is the Top 22 teams remaining. As a reminder, the team standings in this merge will NOT always match the team standings in the actual meet - this will be a MUCH higher quality field, and in some cases bigger or smaller than the state meet field, and as such elite teams are significantly more rewarded for having front runners than they are in actual state championship races (re: there are more runners up front to displace scorers, meaning scoring up front plays a more equivalent role).

ROUGH 200.0 State Championship Ratings estimates:

Southwest = Utah 15:00, Colorado 15:30
Northwest = Alaska 14:45, Montana 15:05, Wyoming 15:25

Top 22 Teams:
  1.  63.0 - Corner Canyon UT - 77:52 (UT 6A Champion)
  2. 121.5 - Dakota Ridge CO - 77:59 (CO 5A Champion)
  3. 214.5 - Davis UT - 80:04 (UT 6A Runner-up)
  4. 222.0 - Skyridge UT - 79:33 (UT 6A Third Place)
  5. 229.5 - Mountain Vista CO - 80:05 (CO 5A Runner-up)
  6. 244.0 - Farmington UT - 80:17 (UT 5A Champion)
  7. 253.5 - Niwot CO - 79:54 (CO 4A Champion)
  8. 266.0 - Stansbury UT - 80:13 (UT 4A Champion)
  9. 278.0 - American Fork UT - 80:32 (UT 6A Fourth Place)
  10. 284.5 - Timpanogos UT - 80:48 (UT 5A Runner-up)
  11. 327.0 - Durango CO - 80:54 (CO 4A Runner-up)
  12. 333.5 - Bozeman MT - 81:08 (MT 2A Champion)
  13. 333.5 - Rock Canyon CO - 81:03 (CO 5A Third Place)
  14. 351.5 - Orem UT - 81:16 (UT 5A Third Place)
  15. 353.0 - Cedar City UT - 81:17 (UT 4A Runner-up)
  16. 353.0 - Heritage CO - 81:28 (CO 5A Fourth Place)
  17. 359.0 - Fort Collins CO - 81:34 (CO 5A Fifth Place)
  18. 360.5 - Bountiful UT - 81:03 (UT 5A Fifth Place)
  19. 366.0 - Hellgate MT - 81:29 (MT 2A Runner-up)
  20. 380.0 - Herriman UT - 81:39 (UT 6A Fifth Place)
  21. 393.0 - Mountain View UT - 81:40 (UT 5A Fourth Place)
  22. 406.0 - Fairview CO - 81:51 (CO 5A Sixth Place)
Honorable Mention (the 18 teams the made the Top-40 cut): Air Academy CO, Battle Mountain CO, Boulder CO, Castle View CO, Centaurus CO, Cheyenne Mountain CO, Desert Hills UT, Dimond AK, Liberty CO, Lone Peak UT, Palmer CO, Palmer Ridge CO, Park City UT, Pine View UT, Ridgeline UT, Springville UT, Star Valley WY, Timpview UT

Top 50 Individuals:
  1. 14:43 - Cole Sprout, 12 - Valor Christian CO
  2. 14:55 - Connor Ohlson, 12 - Dakota Ridge CO
  3. 15:05 - Parker Wolfe, 11 - Cherry Creek CO
  4. 15:06 - Cruz Culpepper, 12 - Niwot CO
  5. 15:09 - Cole Nash, 12 - Chatfield CO
  6. 15:09 - Gus Mcintyre, 12 - Palmer CO
  7. 15:14 - Dalton Mortensen, 11 - Bountiful UT
  8. 15:14 - Creed Thompson, 11 - Skyridge UT
  9. 15:18 - Dylan Schubert, 12 - Thompson Valley CO
  10. 15:20 - Mason Norman, 12 - Classical Academy CO
  11. 15:20 - Erik Le Roux, 10 - Cheyenne Mountain CO
  12. 15:20 - Jacob White, 11 - Dakota Ridge CO
  13. 15:22 - Caleb Johnson, 12 - Corner Canyon UT
  14. 15:22 - Luke Tichi, 12 - Durango CO
  15. 15:23 - Grahm Tuohy-Gaydos, 11 - Green Mountain CO
  16. 15:24 - Carson Belnap, 12 - Stansbury UT
  17. 15:30 - Santiago Prosser, 12 - Dimond AK
  18. 15:31 - Ben Morrin, 12 - Dakota Ridge CO
  19. 15:32 - Mark Boyle, 12 - Corner Canyon UT
  20. 15:34 - Caleb Mann, 11 - Liberty CO
  21. 15:35 - Peter Visser, 11 - Star Valley WY
  22. 15:35 - Alex Harbertson, 12 - Corner Canyon UT
  23. 15:35 - Matthew Mettler, 12 - Air Academy CO
  24. 15:35 - Scott Prieve, 11 - Palmer CO
  25. 15:36 - Easton Allred, 12 - Corner Canyon UT
  26. 15:37 - Davin Thompson, 11 - Skyridge UT
  27. 15:40 - Ashton Hysell, 12 - American Fork UT
  28. 15:41 - Michael Moffat, 11 - Westlake UT
  29. 15:42 - Rawson Spackman, 12 - Farmington UT
  30. 15:42 - Wesley Beckham, 12 - Rock Canyon CO
  31. 15:42 - Jack O'Sullivan, 12 - Mountain Vista CO
  32. 15:43 - Colin Szuch, 12 - Evergreen CO
  33. 15:43 - Derek Fearon, 12 - Rock Canyon CO
  34. 15:43 - Yasin Sado, 12 - Gateway CO
  35. 15:44 - Tristian Merchant, 11 - Anchorage Christian AK
  36. 15:44 - Porter Whitworth, 12 - Grantsville UT
  37. 15:44 - James Overberg, 11 - Centaurus CO
  38. 15:44 - Jedidiah Megargel, 11 - Westlake UT
  39. 15:44 - Cory Kennedy, 12 - Heritage CO
  40. 15:45 - Simon Hill, 12 - Glacier MT
  41. 15:45 - Bailey Oswald, 12 - Cedar City UT
  42. 15:45 - Josh Oblad, 12 - Stansbury UT
  43. 15:45 - Parker Lee, 12 - Legacy CO
  44. 15:45 - Davis Helmerich, 12 - Mountain Vista CO
  45. 15:46 - Evan Ellison, 12 - Grand County UT
  46. 15:47 - Taylor Knight, 11 - Orem UT
  47. 15:47 - Zack Gacnik, 11 - Conifer CO
  48. 15:47 - AJ Rowland, 11 - Corner Canyon UT
  49. 15:48 - Isaac Roberts, 12 - Lyons CO
  50. 15:48 - Ian Curtis, 12 - Hellgate MT


Note: FWIW, potential At-Large Teams are probably around 80:30 for team time, and around 15:15 for individuals (this will include significantly more than the 4 teams and 5 individuals selected throughout the nation, but that's essentially the low bar equivalent estimate to be competitive for a spot out of NXR). That's why those teams/individuals are bolded above - if they repeat or exceed those performances at their NXR meet, they belong in the conversation. That may seem like a lot, but remember that team time isn't everything and that the Southwest is often one of, if not THE, strongest regions in the nation - and that is more than 90% due to the combination of Utah and Colorado as they are both among the strongest states (particularly Utah boys and Colorado girls).

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