(9/08) Fastback Shootout CA – CA#3/US#17 Great Oak CA looked like the strongest team on both sides this year in fields that included Simi Valley (US#10 girls), Rancho Cucamonga (US Bubble boys), and a shorthanded Burbank (US#20 boys). The races were broken up into two 1.9 mile flights for each class with the highlights featuring US#3 Sarah Baxter of Simi Valley and unranked Daniel De La Torre of La Salle.
Full results can be found at DyestatCal.
Rating estimates (200.0 ~ 9:24)
Boys –
1 - De La Torre, Daniel - 12 - La Salle - 9:38.31 - 192.5
1 - Ayala, Oscar - 11 - Great Oak - 9:57.81 - 182.1
1 - Warrick, Kyle - 12 - Roosevelt -ss - 9:58.50 - 181.8
2 - Lopez, Robert - 12 - Santiago (Cor) - 9:59.40 - 181.3
3 - Esposito, Austin - 12 - Rancho Cucamonga - 10:02.53 - 179.6
1 - Carvajal, David - 10 - Great Oak - 10:14.24 - 173.4
3 - Giba, Patryk - 11 - Great Oak - 10:17.60 - 171.6
2 - Beck, Jeremy - 10 - Roosevelt -ss - 10:19.20 - 170.8
6 - Satterfield, Tyler - 12 - Roosevelt -ss - 10:20.32 - 170.2
5 - Ortega, Anthony - 11 - Rancho Cucamonga - 10:24.25 - 168.1
3 - Randall, Branden - 10 - Roosevelt -ss - 10:25.91 - 167.2
12 - Matthews, Kevin - 12 - Rancho Cucamonga - 10:27.20 - 166.5
7 - Holton, Mat - 11 - Rancho Cucamonga - 10:29.56 - 165.2
15 - Thomas, Gordie - 12 - Great Oak - 10:34.10 - 162.8
16 - Vega-Aguilera, Marc - 12 - Rancho Cucamonga - 10:34.74 - 162.5
12 - Skeans, Mark - 11 - Great Oak - 10:34.79 - 162.5
17 - Burgess, Mitch - 12 - Great Oak - 10:36.38 - 161.6
16 - Salvador, Abner - 11 - Great Oak - 10:36.99 - 161.3
20 - Dietz, Jorge - 11 - Roosevelt -ss - 10:52.64 - 153.0
27 - Tircuit, Akil - 12 - Rancho Cucamonga - 10:56.71 - 150.8
23 - Pierce, Steven - 11 - Rancho Cucamonga - 10:59.06 - 149.6
34 - Seymore, Isaac - 11 - Roosevelt -ss - 11:08.07 - 144.8
21 - Graciano, Andrew - 10 - Roosevelt -ss - 11:21.66 - 137.5
Girls –
1 - Baxter, Sarah - 11 - Simi Valley - 11:00.20 - 149.0
2 - Helbig, Ashley - 11 - Great Oak - 11:27.50 - 134.4
1 - Genovese, McKennah - 10 - Santiago (Cor) - 11:39.80 - 127.9
1 - Segal, Sydney - 12 - Beverly Hills - 11:40.30 - 127.6
2 - Jones, Desirae - 10 - Simi Valley - 11:51.20 - 121.8
3 - Calain, Christian - 11 - Great Oak - 12:01.30 - 116.5
1 - Ortega, Ashley - 12 - Great Oak - 12:04.00 - 115.0
2 - Kewley, Miranda - 12 - Great Oak - 12:07.70 - 113.1
5 - Dorris, Haley - 11 - Great Oak - 12:10.20 - 111.7
4 - Riggs, Sarah - 10 - Simi Valley - 12:14.70 - 109.3
4 - McNamee, Kelli - 12 - Great Oak - 12:26.00 - 103.3
5 - Messerly, Alexis - 12 - Great Oak - 12:30.10 - 101.2
9 - Utash, Charlotte - 11 - Simi Valley - 12:37.50 - 97.2
7 - Korven, Courtney - 12 - Simi Valley - 12:38.60 - 96.6
12 - Tetef, Samantha - 10 - Simi Valley - 12:57.90 - 86.4
23 - Pacheco, Alyssa - 10 - Simi Valley - 13:23.10 - 73.0
(9/08) Seaside Invitational CA – CA#2/US#14 Trabuco Hills boys and US bubble team Saugus looked like the top teams at the meet broken into flights by class. The individual highlight was Dos Pueblos senior Bryan Fernandez running 14:05.77 to win by over 35 seconds.
Full results can be found at the California milesplit site.
Rating estimates (200.0 ~ 13:38)
Boys –
1 - Bryan Fernandez - SR - Dos Pueblos HS - 14:05.77 - 189.7
1 - Ruben Rubira - SO - Hart HS - 15:14.56 - 164.5
2 - Zach Dion - 12 - Royal HS - 14:41.44 - 176.7
3 - Nolan Del Valle - 12 - Golden Valley HS - 14:47.21 - 174.5
1 - Sahm Bazargan - 11 - Oak Park HS - 14:53.32 - 172.3
7 - Naoki Omatsu - 12 - Trabuco Hills HS - 14:57.78 - 170.7
8 - Luke Dorman - 12 - Trabuco Hills HS - 14:58.02 - 170.6
10 - Max Moncur - 12 - Trabuco Hills HS - 15:03.05 - 168.7
18 - Brendan Mccabe - 12 - Trabuco Hills HS - 15:24.92 - 160.7
24 - Christopher Ceja - 12 - Trabuco Hills HS - 15:31.52 - 158.3
34 - Jake Schmitz - 12 - Trabuco Hills HS - 15:39.80 - 155.2
22 - Evan DeFraine - 11 - Trabuco Hills HS - 16:01.95 - 147.1
Girls –
1 - Addi Zerrenner - JR - Dos Pueblos HS - 16:44.19 - 131.6
1 - Alexus Wang - 10 - Palisades HS - 16:55.33 - 127.5
2 - Samantha Ortega - 10 - Saugus HS - 17:20.06 - 118.5
3 - Cassidy Webber - 10 - Palos Verdes HS - 17:24.66 - 116.8
1 - Madeline Dignadice - 12 - Valencia HS - 17:26.28 - 116.2
2 - Samantha Ortega - 10 - Saugus HS - 17:20.06 - 118.5
5 - Darby LaPlant - 10 - Saugus HS - 17:47.42 - 108.4
4 - Olivia Altieri - 12 - Saugus HS - 17:50.07 - 107.5
3 - Abigail Frankian - 11 - Saugus HS - 17:50.38 - 107.3
5 - Nina Sassano - 12 - Saugus HS - 17:52.57 - 106.5
9 - Katie Huntington - 12 - Saugus HS - 18:09.63 - 100.3
13 - Alex Hill - 12 - Saugus HS - 18:19.00 - 96.8
(9/08) Bronco Roundup CA – CA#1/US#7 La Costa Canyon CA was missing two of their top six, which was just enough for US bubble team Rancho Bernardo to stage a 46-57 upset.
Full results can be found at the Rancho Bernardo team website.
Rating estimates (200.0 ~ 9:13)
Boys –
1 - Tal Braude - 11 - Torrey Pines - 9:51.2 - 179.0
2 - Ricky Sweet - 12 - Point Loma - 9:53.6 - 177.7
3 - Steven Fahy - 11 - La Costa Canyon - 9:54.4 - 177.3
4 - Jorge Matt-Navarro - 12 - Patrick Henry - 9:59.4 - 174.6
5 - Brendan Gee - 12 - Rancho Bernardo - 10:00.8 - 173.8
Girls –
1 - Emma Abrahamson - 11 - La Costa Canyon - 11:08.9 - 136.9
2 - Kelly Lawson - 12 - La Costa Canyon - 11:17.1 - 132.4
3 - Kiara Mcintosh - 12 - Paloma Valley - 11:21.0 - 130.3
4 - Danielle Voyles - 11 - Rancho Bernardo - 11:23.8 - 128.8
5 - Delaney Miller - 11 - Pacific Ridge - 11:39.7 - 120.1
6 - Lauren Voyles - 11 - Rancho Bernardo - 11:44.6 - 117.5
9 - Rebekah Bosler - 11 - La Costa Canyon - 12:02.2 - 107.9
12 - Bryanna Fuller - 10 - Rancho Bernardo - 12:11.7 - 102.8
13 - Katie Sammer - 11 - Rancho Bernardo - 12:11.9 - 102.7
15 - Nia Akins - 9 - Rancho Bernardo - 12:13.0 - 102.1
20 - Alex Fromme - 11 - La Costa Canyon - 12:20.2 - 98.2
24 - Jensen Bogan - 12 - Rancho Bernardo - 12:26.3 - 94.8
26 - Ellissya Andino - 10 - Rancho Bernardo - 12:28.7 - 93.5
29 - Julie Steigerwald - 11 - La Costa Canyon - 12:32.1 - 91.7
30 - Sarah Abrahamson - 9 - La Costa Canyon - 12:32.4 - 91.5
(9/08) Laguna Hills Invitational CA – CA#1/US#11 Arcadia CA boys had some tough competition in their races as they only had the best team time by 16 seconds with CA#5/US#21 Vista Murrieta right on their heels. Also looking strong was the unranked Peninsula boys. In the girls races, Mira Costa had the best team time by over a minute. No ratings estimates for this race at this time, unfortunately, but race results can be found at the Laguna Hills team website.
Ummmm can you explain to us why Saugus' speed ratings are so low and Simi Valley and Great Oak's aren't? Saugus ran those times on a 3.03-mile course (it was GPS'd twice) and a week before that, ran TWO-MILE marks almost as fast as both Simi and Great Oak's 1.9-mile marks on Palos Verdes' course, arguably the most challenging course in the section. Saugus looks better than both those teams that ran at the Fastback Inv.
ReplyDelete. and how is Zerrender's 16:44, a mark that's 9 seconds off Kim Mortenson's once-thought-unapproachable course record only worth a 129.5?
ReplyDeleteRob you're one of the most respected writers out there about our sport. Normally I think you're damn accurate. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say you may want to reevaluate your Seaside ratings. To me it looks like 13:45 is ~200, based on what Meylan had last year for Seaside and the fact that the course was running about 20-25 seconds fast this year. That would put someone like Zerrener at about 140. That seems very reasonable for a 10:28 3200m runner. It would also place the Saugus girls between 129 and 119. A Saugus team that essentially ran the same team time (within seconds) at their first meet as last year without a big front runner like Karis Frankian. Either way, thanks for everything that you do.
ReplyDeleteI'll raise the Seaside times to the highest I can justify (200.0 ~ 13:38). That is still 32 seconds faster than I had it last year... but based on what all those athletes have run before (that I kept track of going into the season), that's as slow as I can estimate it. Bear in mind, this is a very early season result, which means three things: It won't really make a difference in any of my rankings, times aren't going to be near what they will be at the end of the season (assuming the coach isn't already racing his kids all-out or in near-peak race readiness), and that ratings are always going to be questionable until you get to meets on well known courses.
ReplyDeleteElle Abrahamson didn't run. Who is the other missing LCC top 6 girl?
ReplyDeleteSimi Valley was missing Rachel Vinas and Madelyn Vorgitch.
ReplyDeleteSaugus was missing Heidi Hoslet.
La Costa Canyon was missing Ellie Abrahamson.
Reading team rankings has to be one of the most entertaining aspects of high school xc. It's entertaining generates excitement heading into meets with anticipated match-ups between teams. But.... I believe that the concept of "speed ratings" is so wrongly applied to invitationals and championship meets that last multiple hours. Take Seaside for example. First race 2:00pm, 83 degrees no wind. Last race 5:15pm 72 degrees substantial wind blowing. Now how does one speed rating scale for a day at a course apply to all races? I personally think it's a flawed system. But I love reading what people have to write, it's fun.
ReplyDeleteOh and you may want to look at Dos Pueblos as a team since they were nearly a full minute faster than Trabuco Hills.
Great Oak was missing top athletes too:
ReplyDeleteTeam #1 - Jack Balder - 12 - Taking ACT
Team #2 - Nathan Velarde - 12 - Taking ACT
Team #3 - Kaden Lapham - 12 - Resting
Team #8 - Tristan Tapia - 10 - Resting (about the same speed as David Carvajal).
Team #2 - Kim McNamee - 12 - Taking ACT
Team #3 - Rachel Seymour - 12 - Taking ACT (had allergy issues in 2011, healthy this year).
Looks like it will be a fun year in CA! I agree, Saugus' performance at Seaside is way underated. Coach Paragas does an amazing job with his kids. Go back and look at what those same girls ran as 9th graders. Amazing improvements across the board every year in that program. He has definitely continued to set the bar for all other coaches.
Coach Soles
La Costa Canyon: Unless my information on them is wrong, Jordan Rich was the other missing runner (she didn't run/finish at state, but was their #6 at CIF-SDS as a frosh last fall).
ReplyDeleteBut to mention Rich as a "missing runner" as if she were a factor last year seems disingenuous (and she may not have run track). LCC appears to have three returners - Stiegerwald, Rich & Fromme - plus the youngest Abrahamson at about the same level.
DeleteBTW - Thanks for making it easier to post a comment.
Just how is it disingenuous to mention Rich as a missing runner? She is their #5/6 returner going into the season (both her and Steigerwald projected @ 105), and they were missing their #3 (Ellie Abrahmson), which means that she should have been their #4/5 that day... therefore, a missing projected scorer.
DeleteGiven there's no evidence that Rich is consistently better than Fromme and the youngest Abrahamson, there's no reason to believe that Rich would have improved LCC's score. The same is not true of Ellie Abrahamson or the missing girls from Great Oak, Saugus and Simi Valley. If they ran as well as they have in the past, those teams' scores and team times would have improved.
DeleteIf Jordan Rich ran as well as she has in the past, La Costa Canyon's score and team time would have improved. Just because Rich didn't run at the California State XC meet or track doesn't mean she isn't as good as she showed at the CIF-SDS Finals.
DeleteShe is the projected #5/6 runner. Another of their top five (Ellie Abrahamson) was also missing. Therefore, she would have been the projected #4/5 and contributed to the team score, based on what we know going into the season.
I don't see how it can possibly be disingenuous to say that a projected scorer missing might have had an effect on the results of the meet. I'm also not sure why this is significant enough issue to debate it ... if it is only because I didn't mention missing runners for teams that didn't race head to head, well that's because they didn't race head to head and team scores didn't really mean much (if they are even posted) -- as is the case for both the Fastback Shootout and Seaside Invitational, which was broken down into multiple races by class. Bronco Roundup was a varsity race, which included a score where the pre-race favorite got beat. That is why it seemed important enough for me to mention a team was missing scorers.