With most of the state meets in the Northwest already concluded, and Washington's state meet coming up this weekend, it's time to start reviewing some races from around the region!
First up, here's my preliminary look at how the marks from around the Washington state meet qualifying meets compare. To keep this post short, I'll only post the Top 25 overall here, though I may very well get deeper and separate classifications at some point this week. Enjoy!
(times set to be equivalent to the Sun Willows 2014 state races)
Top 25 Boys Performances at State Qualifying Meet:
15:06.53 - Justin Janke - 12 - North Central - 3A Eastern Regional #1
15:11.27 - James Mwaura - 10 - Lincoln - 3A Westside Classic #1
15:26.11 - Phillip Fishburn - 12 - Kamiakin - 3A Eastern Regional #2
15:31.11 - Peter Allegre - 12 - North Thurston - 3A Westside Classic #2
15:31.86 - Cameron Carroll - 12 - Central Kitsap - 3A Westside Classic #3
15:35.00 - Nathan Pixler - 12 - Eastlake - 4A District I/II #1
15:35.01 - Henry Hayes - 12 - Garfield - 3A District II #1
15:35.91 - Zak Kindl - 11 - Lewis and Clark - 4A Eastern Regional #1
15:36.32 - Cullen McEachern - 11 - Kamiak - 4A District I/II #2
15:37.71 - Nate Pendleton - 10 - Eastlake - 4A District I/II #3
15:40.39 - Nathan Beamer - 12 - Arlington - 3A District I #1
15:40.85 - Nick Laccinole - 12 - Inglemoor - 4A District I/II #4
15:41.78 - Hayden Dressel - 11 - Mt Spokane - 3A Eastern Regional #3
15:47.04 - Christian Rotter - 12 - Auburn Mountainview - 3A Westside Classic #4
15:47.10 - Spencer Stewart - 12 - Eisenhower - 4A District VI #1
15:47.66 - Hunter Simpson - 12 - University - 4A Eastern Regional #2
15:47.66 - Erik Holm - 12 - Joel Ferris - 4A Eastern Regional #3
15:47.80 - Peter Hogan - 12 - Bishop Blanchet - 3A District II #2
15:48.07 - Jason Gordon - 12 - Central Kitsap - 3A Westside Classic #5
15:48.12 - Dylan Holland - 12 - Anacortes - 2A District I #1
15:49.88 - James Konugres - 11 - Ballard - 3A District II #3
15:50.48 - Matthew Watkins - 11 - Henry Jackson - 4A District I/II #5
15:50.59 - Johnny Cooney - 12 - Gonzaga Prep - 4A Eastern Regional #4
15:52.04 - Kennan Schrag - 12 - Issaquah - 4A District I/II #6
15:53.75 - Thomas Johnson - 11 - North Thurston - 3A Westside Classic #6
Top 25 Girls Performances at State Qualifying Meet:
17:48.69 - Taylor Roe - 9 - Kamiak - 4A District I/II #1
18:00.54 - Emma Jenkins - 10 - Camas - 4A Westside Classic #1
18:08.40 - Jordan Oakes - 11 - Holy Names Academy - 3A District II #1
18:09.64 - Pia Richards - 11 - Eastlake - 4A District I/II #2
18:10.15 - Sami Corman - 10 - Issaquah - 4A District I/II #3
18:10.33 - Savanna Craig - 11 - Mountain View - 4A Westside Classic #2
18:18.04 - Katherine Penner - 12 - Bellevue - 3A District II #2
18:18.05 - Hannah Waskom - 11 - Mt Si - 4A District I/II #4
18:18.65 - Isabelle Olive - 12 - Garfield - 3A District II #3
18:22.02 - Rachel Blair - 9 - Camas - 4A Westside Classic #3
18:22.57 - Sophie Cantine - 11 - Lakeside (Seattle) - 3A District II #4
18:24.12 - Maizy Brewer - 12 - Skyline - 4A District I/II #5
18:28.48 - Rachel Kastama - 11 - Puyallup - 4A Westside Classic #4
18:32.75 - Kenna Clawson - 10 - Issaquah - 4A District I/II #6
18:37.84 - Emily Donnelly - 12 - Monroe - 4A District I/II #7
18:39.96 - Abby Smith - 10 - Lewis and Clark - 4A Eastern Regional #1
18:42.52 - Rebecca Ledsham - 11 - Inglemoor - 4A District I/II #8
18:43.50 - Abbie Steinhauer - 11 - Mariner - 4A District I/II #9
18:44.51 - Erin Ripple - 11 - Holy Names Academy - 3A District II #5
18:46.55 - Emily Wilson - 10 - Camas - 4A Westside Classic #5
18:47.79 - Briegan Bester - 12 - Central Valley - 4A Eastern Regional #2
18:48.73 - Cassie McKinney - 12 - Union - 4A Westside Classic #6
18:48.77 - Katie Thronson - 10 - Lewis and Clark - 4A Eastern Regional #3
18:49.17 - Brittany Aquino - 12 - East Valley (Spokane) - 2A Eastern Regional #1
18:50.68 - Yukino Parle - 10 - Edmonds-Woodway - 3A District I #1
Side notes:
I only looked at classifications 2A and above... the reasons being that there isn't as much competition at the B/1A level for the top athletes/teams, and because this was generated while I was researching the top teams in the NW, which would very very rarely include schools that are 1A or smaller (among the top 30 there are usually only 1-2 that are 2A sized in the entire NW)
Camas girls are looking STRONG! They definitely have progressed well since earlier this season
North Central boys look like the top team in the state, but only 1 under 16:00 for a 15:55 average...
Janke would be #13 All-Time for 5k at Sun Willows if he matches that estimate, while the wunderkind Taylor Roe would break the Freshman record
No love for 2A at WCD? Cooper & Chacon were battling
ReplyDeleteOnly one athlete from 2A made the top 25 cut on both sides.
DeleteCooper comes in at #29, Chacon at #42 (Silas Griffith is the next 2A athlete at #50). On the girls side, it is MUCH more 3A/4A centric. The second 2A girl is #58 (Elyria Kabasenche of Pullman), with Tumwater's Lauren Ericks close behind at #61.
Any idea why the 4A Boys times were so slow at Westside Classic?
ReplyDeleteBecause Western Washington weather and the 4A Boys were the last of 8 races on the day, when the course was in the worst condition.
DeleteTwo questions:
ReplyDelete1. Why did no 4A District 3/4 boy made your top 25 (11 4A. boys from the other regional races made the list)? Obviously the Westside Classic Zat American Lake was sloppy/slow and 4A boys raced last but didn't you handicap that? I would be surprised if nobody from that region placed in top 11? Wouldn't you be?
2. Did you attend the Westside Classic? If so how bad was it? Was the course trashed to an extent that may jeopardize being allowed back? Times were so slow I imagine more of a pig farm than a nice golf course.
1a. Because the performances weren't among the top 25...
Delete1b. Yes, I adjusted for the 3A/4A Boys races (the last two races) separately from the 3A/4A Girls races (third and fourth to last races) as well as the 2A races (among the first four races of the day).
1c. Short answer: I would be surprised if no one from the 4A Southwest placed in the top 11, particularly an athlete like Yearian who has been running well over the last year. However, this is based on what everyone ran at their regional meets, where they didn’t look as dominant as the top athletes from other regions (particularly if you consider how weak the Southwest is every year compared to the rest of the state, although that wasn’t even factored in – this is only based off of what has happened this season).
2. No, I was not at the Westside Classic meet. Judging by the times, I would hazard a guess that the course was pretty messy at the start of the day, and went well downhill after that (3A/4A boys seemed to be about 30 seconds slower than the 2A races in the morning).
Also, do you anticipate the 4A boys individual times to be slower this year than past years? Even with you setting the times to the equivalent of the '14 meet timed you have the 11th 4A ranked boy (Kennan
ReplyDeleteSchrag) at 15:52 yet the past 4 years a 15:52 would've placed 20, 19, 22, and 20th respectively. So something seems off, either the runners are slower this year or your equivalents are too slow?
Yes, I think this is a down year compared to the last few (which have been outstanding). However, I don't think it will be quite as bad as this would suggest. Several of those who I think will run better than they did at the qualifying meet would include Southwest Regional athletes, who I think are better compared to their competition than they showed last weekend. I think the Boys 4A race, individually, will be closer to what we saw back in 2010 (sans the gap from Bierig to Gardner and the field, unless Yearian runs away with it) ... around the usual 20-25 under 16:00, with #15 probably somewhere around 15:50-15:55.
DeleteJust curious Rob, what time adjustment did you use for the SE 4A Boys (for instance you used ~ 21 seconds for Eastern Regional 4A boys)?
ReplyDeleteAlso do you really feel that Issaquah/Eastlake/University are that much better than Canada and Bellarmine Prep?
Using these numbers, Eastlake would only beat Camas 188-199. That seems appropriately close to me, especially since we are talking about comparing what they ran last weekend and not what we think they can/will do.
DeleteI use ratios (multipliers rather than +/- X seconds). The course comparisons for the 4A boys meets:
14:45 @ 2014 State XC ~ 14:44 CBBN ~ 15:04 Eastern Regional ~ 15:18 Northwest Regional ~ 15:50 Southwest Regional
*camas not Canada (autocorrect lol)
ReplyDelete