Sunday, November 6, 2016

Northwest Rankings - Girls Teams (Pre NXR)

As some have asked for, here are my post-state rankings. For simplicity's sake, I only included the mainland states (sorry, Alaska and Hawai'i), and only included the State Meet and State Qualifier races. I took each athlete's best from those meets, and included ALL teams that were at any of those meets. Ended up being 517 boys teams and 459 girls teams. A note, if a team didn't qualify for their state qualifying meet (e.g. any WA 3A MCC/GSL team outside of North Central and Kamiakin), they aren't included, although I don't think any of those teams would have made the cut here anyways.

The process: I scored all the teams, and then the top 150 of those teams, and then the top 100 teams, top 70 teams, top 50 teams, top 35 teams, and finally top 25 teams to come up with these rankings. I will include the scores and average ratings for the 25 team comparison, and list the next 25 teams in the order they were ranked.

Please note that West Valley AK might have made the Top-25 cut, and Seabury Hall HI girls might have been close as well. Additionally, Kenai Central AK and Punahou HI might also have been close to or in the Top 50. I don't think any other Hawai'i or Alaska team would be up there.

Also, you will see below that the ratings are a little different than you would expect. This is because these rankings are using a more finalized version of the ratings for the State and State Qualifier races. Differences in relevant previously posted ratings vs. these are: ID State Meet = 15:22.40, WY State Meet = 15:10.73, Oregon 6A-2 = 14:25.30, Oregon 6A-3 = 14:39.64, Oregon 6A-4 = 14:40.53, Oregon 6A-5 = 14:38.26, Idaho 5A-1 = 14:47.97, and Idaho 4A-3 = 14:35.45.

Disclaimer: As usual, I think Montana is a little undervalued here, although not too significantly ... and please keep in mind, these rankings are ONLY considering what the athletes ran at State or their State Qualifier races, and if I were ranking teams based on their best races the order would be different - likely, the Top 5 would have been Jesuit, Bozeman, Mountain View, Jackson Hole, and Summit.

Without further ado, the Pre-NXR Northwest Girls Team Rankings:

State Champions are in bold, State Non-Qualifiers in italics.


  1. 161 - Mountain View ID - 126.5 = Idaho 5A State Champion
  2. 177 - Jesuit OR - 122.7 = Oregon 6A State Champion
  3. 207 - Bozeman MT - 122.1 = Montana 2A State Champion
  4. 218 - Jackson Hole WY - 124.6 = Wyoming 4A State Champion
  5. 223 - Summit OR - 120.9 = Oregon 5A State Champion
  6. 236 - Laramie WY - 119.4 = Wyoming 4A State Runner-up
  7. 259 - Sunset OR - 122.2 = Oregon 6A State Runner-up
  8. 261 - Eagle ID - 119.1 = Idaho 5A State Runner-up
  9. 301 - Billings Senior MT - 116.7 = Montana 2A State Runner-up
  10. 318 - Issaquah WA - 112.4 = Washington 4A State Champion
  11. 323 - Cheyenne Central WY - 116.5 = Wyoming 4A State Third place
  12. 336 - Camas WA - 112.2 = Washington 4A State Runner-up
  13. 339 - Holy Names Academy WA - 113.3 = Washington 3A State Champion
  14. 353 - Edmonds-Woodway WA - 107.9 = Washington 3A State Runner-up
  15. 369 - Twin Falls ID - 110.8 = Idaho 4A State Champion
  16. 377 - St. Mary's Academy OR - 110.9 = Oregon 6A State Third place
  17. 384 - Central Valley WA - 110.2 = Washington 4A State Fourth place
  18. 404 - Lewis & Clark WA - 109.4 = Washington 4A State Fifth place
  19. 407 - Glacier Peak WA - 107.2 = Washington 4A State Third place
  20. 413 - Hellgate MT - 107.4 = Montana 2A State Third place
  21. 448 - Sheldon OR - 105.5 = Oregon 6A State Fourth place
  22. 468 - Shelley ID - 99.9 = Idaho 3A State Champion
  23. 473 - Rocky Mountain ID - 103.8 = Idaho 5A State Third place
  24. 488 - Mount Si WA - 103.1 = Washington 4A State Ninth place
  25. 491 - Soda Springs ID - 102.4 = Idaho 2A State Champion

    Best of the Rest:
  26. Crescent Valley OR = Oregon 5A State Runner-up
  27. Sprague OR = Oregon 6A State Sixth place
  28. Mead WA = Washington 4A Eastern Regional #3
  29. Meridian ID = Idaho 5A State Sixth place
  30. Boise ID = Idaho 5A State Fifth place
  31. Preston ID = Idaho 4A State Runner-up
  32. Kamiak WA = Washington 4A State #12
  33. Lincoln OR = Oregon 6A State Fifth place
  34. Tahoma WA = Washington 4A State Sixth place
  35. Madison ID = Idaho 5A State Fourth place
  36. Tualatin OR = Oregon 6A State Eighth place
  37. Pullman WA = Washington 2A State Fourth place
  38. Liberty-Issaquah WA = Washington 2A State Runner-up
  39. Lake Stevens WA = Washington 4A District I #3
  40. Northwest WA = Washington 1A State Champion
  41. Shorecrest WA = Washington 3A State Third place
  42. Sehome WA = Washington 2A State Third place
  43. Natrona County WY = Wyoming 4A State Fourth place
  44. Redmond WA = Washington 3A State Fourth place
  45. Selah WA = Washington 2A State Champion
  46. Skyview WA = Washington 4A State Seventh place
  47. Deer Park WA = Washington 1A State Runner-up
  48. Hazen WA = Washington 4A State #11
  49. Ballard WA = Washington 3A State Eighth place
  50. Bellarmine Prep WA = Washington 4A State Eighth place


Observation: I feel like these ratings as a whole are lower than they should be. A quick analysis of the Washington State boys race suggests it should be rated about 9-10 seconds slower than it is (and it is rated roughly equal to last year). I'm not sold that this is a problem with the Washington ratings as much as all of my ratings being a bit low this year, meaning that I'm fine with the state-to-state and race-to-race comparisons but more concerned with the described quality of the entire fields. That's an issue I will work on tackling over the coming weeks.

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