Wednesday, December 2, 2015

NXN Boys Projections

So, if you hadn't noticed, I didn't end up posting the All-Time individual performance lists from the regionals after the first week. The Southwest was already probably not going to happen, because it was only the second year at the course, but the South being so muddy prevented me from doing that region either. I may at some point go back and review it for the races during the last weekend, but for now I'm just going to skip it since we would be missing a quarter of the regions anyways.

Instead, here is a post about how the NXN Nationals fields might be looking. Normally, these projections include many races for all the teams (most importantly NXR and each of their State meets, but also including some small weighting for season bests from invitationals if applicable), however as I haven't had time to do that for many teams this year this is almost strictly based on NXR (with a pair of slight exceptions on both sides as noted below).

Boys Teams:

120 Great Oak CA
191 Dana Hills CA
214 The Woodlands TX
226 Hopkins MN
247 Sandburg IL
262 American Fork UT
267 Timpanogos UT
272 Lone Peak UT
275 Mountain Vista CO
276 Liverpool NY
281 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
285 Downingtown West PA
288 Southlake Carroll TX
296 Edina MN
301 Wayzata MN
301 Neuqua Valley IL
301 Lyons Township IL
337 Bozeman MT
344 Summit OR
380 Christian Brothers NJ
393 Marietta GA
420 Trinity Prep FL


It is worth noting that the South ratings are a wild guess, so I could very well be way off. Also, I took into account additional factors for two boys and two girls teams:

For the Fayetteville-Manlius NY boys, I added in Peter Ryan with a wild guess that he could run with their #3 from their regional race (he was their #1 all year, and his coach seems to have tried to be careful with him over the last few weeks, so without having any real good idea of the situation this seemed like an okay guess). I have no idea if he is even going to run, let alone run well, so he could still change things quite a bit (this puts him as the #88 scorer in the field, with their #1 at 19 and #6 at 128).

For the Christian Brothers NJ boys, I know that my scores for them are quite a bit different than others seem to have them at, so just like I did with the Davis girls I also averaged in their state meet (MOC) races to see how that changed things. Surprisingly, just like with the Davis girls, it didn't push the needle hardly at all.

Top Individuals (194+ ratings):

Ben Petrella, Liverpool NY (team runner)
Casey Clinger, American Fork UT (team runner)
Phillip Rocha, Arcadia CA
Jonathan Davis, Oakwood IL
Alek Parsons, Ogden UT
Paul Roberts, Lyons CO
Brody Smith, Cody WY
Jaret Carpenter, Wayzata MN (team runner)
Austin Tamagno, Brea Olinda CA
Benjamin Veatch, Carmel IN
Micah Mather, Highland Park MN
Jack Yearian, Bellarmine Prep WA
Eduardo Herrera, Madera South CA
Seth Hirsch, Millard West NE
Brodey Hasty, Brentwood TN
Andy Monroe, Crater OR


  1. Is this the first year that a team from Spokane has not qualified for NTN/NXN?

    1. Yes, this was actually the first time that Washington had been shut out. Prior to this year, Washington has had at least one team (often from Spokane) in the field, with the worst placing #1 representative from the state still finishing in the top eight (#7 North Central in 2011 for all of Washington, or #8 North Central in 2013 for Spokane only).

  2. I applaud you for making the most accurate projections for NXN 2015 Boys among the 4 "predictors"/rating systems. Besides your projections I used Tully (2nd place), Milesplit/Saucony Flo50 (3rd place), and Paul Schmitz/Dyestat (last place). I determined the accuracy by adding the difference in places between the various predictors and the actual placements of the teams at NXN, lowest # being the most accurate. Your total was 68, Tully 80, Milesplit 96, and Dyestat 104. I was really impressed that you nailed the placement of my alma mater, CBA. I had them at #17 and was very disappointed in their finish...altho, like you, I was more realistic about their projections than the others. Their times compared to recent CBA teams did not warrant them ever being rated much higher than 20th. Again, good for you!