Monday, November 19, 2012

Comparing the NXN Regions

To start off this detailed historical comparison of the NXN Regions, I’ll start with how the regional courses compare – statistically – to one another through the only common denominator: how the athletes did at NXN Nationals compared to how they did at NXN Regionals. I made a post last week (NXN-MW vs. MW State meets) describing the same exact process I use to do this for the NXN Regionals every year (note that whole years that appear to be outliers are not included, re: MW in 2011, SO in 2009, and NE in 2007). These are the results of that process –

 

Average course rating – Course – Average Top 2 score at NXN during the regional era (2007+)

 

883.86 – California State @ Woodward – 248.4 for boys, 240.0 for girls

936.65 –New York @ Bowdoin – 288.3 for boys, 103.2 for girls

936.65 – Northeast @ Bowdoin – 264.4 for boys, 373.3 for girls

880.43 – Southeast @ WakeMed – 421.9 for boys, 272.1 for girls

888.23 – Southwest @ Toka Sticks – 224.0 for boys, 251.4 for girls

900.74 – South @ Bear Branch – 252.2 for boys, 401.4 for girls

902.31 – Midwest @ LaVern Gibson – 224.6 for boys, 297.3 for girls

901.74 – Heartland @ Yankton Trails – 329.3 for boys, 363.2 for girls

917.49 – Northwest @ Eagle Island –  251.8 for boys, 338.1 for girls

 

Also perhaps relevant is looking at the average scores for the regions after taking out statistical outliers (teams that have, to this point, proven to be substantially better or worse than the average top two teams for that region):

 

California: 265.78 for boys, 240.0 for girls

New York: 315.75 for boys, 103.20 for girls

Northeast: 264.40 for boys, 373.30 for girls

Southeast: 421.90 for boys, 253.22 for girls

Southwest: 200.56 for boys, 251.40 for girls

South: 232.44 for boys, 401.40 for girls

Midwest: 224.60 for boys, 297.30 for girls

Heartland: 329.30 for boys, 363.20 for girls

Northwest: 251.80 for boys, 321.78 for girls

 

… I should take this time to remind folks that just because the average race at Course A is this much faster/slower than at Course B doesn’t mean that will always hold true; The Midwest course, for example, appeared to run slower-than-average at NXN-MW, while the Southwest course appeared to run the fastest it ever has. The tricky part is figuring out just how much faster/slower courses ran compared to their averages.

 

Region-by-region scoring history:

California Boys –

1.       92 - Arcadia CA - 2010#1 = AQ

2.       183 - Arcadia CA - 2011#4 = AQ

3.       188 - Dana Hills CA - 2010#7 = AQ

4.       238 - Dana Hills CA - 2009#6 = AQ

5.       261 - Loyola CA - 2007#8 = AQ

6.       269 - Buchanan CA - 2008#9 = AQ

7.       280 - Thousand Oaks CA - 2008#10 = At-Large

8.       298 - Golden Valley CA - 2011#11 = At-Large

9.       309 - Loyola CA - 2008#15 = At-Large

10.   311 - Royal CA - 2009#15 = At-Large

11.   317 - Dana Hills CA - 2008#17 = AQ

12.   322 - Trabuco Hills CA - 2011#14 = AQ

13.   325 - Palos Verdes CA - 2009#17 = AQ

14.   359 - Loyola CA - 2010#16 = At-Large

15.   364 - Murrieta Valley CA - 2007#17 = At-Large

16.   373 - Arcadia CA - 2009#20 = At-Large

17.   379 - Dana Hills CA - 2007#19 = AQ

18.   380 - Rancho Cucamonga CA - 2011#19 = At-Large

 

California Girls –

1.       117 - Saugus CA - 2010#3 = AQ

2.       135 - Saugus CA - 2008#2 = AQ

3.       171 - Saugus CA - 2007#2 = AQ

4.       191 - Saugus CA - 2009#4 = AQ

5.       262 - Dana Hills CA - 2008#11 = AQ

6.       262 - Redondo Beach CA - 2011#10 = At-Large

7.       287 - Simi Valley CA - 2011#11 = At-Large

8.       313 - Corona del Mar CA - 2009#10 = At-Large

9.       325 - Great Oak CA - 2010#13 = At-Large

10.   325 - Saugus CA - 2011#12 = AQ

11.   326 - Mira Costa CA - 2010#14 = AQ

12.   332 - La Costa Canyon CA - 2011#13 = AQ

13.   337 - Esperanza CA - 2007#17 = AQ

14.   354 - La Costa Canyon CA - 2010#16 = At-Large

15.   367 - Mira Costa CA - 2009#17 – AQ

New York Boys –

1.       135 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 2010#2 = AQ

2.       222 - Shenendehowa NY - 2008#7 = AQ

3.       270 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 2009#9 = AQ

4.       286 - Warwick Valley NY - 2007#11 = AQ

5.       304 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 2011#12 = AQ

6.       314 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 2008#16 = AQ

7.       325 - Shaker NY - 2010#13 = AQ

8.       334 - Shenendehowa NY - 2007#14 = AQ

9.       344 - Shaker NY - 2011#16 = AQ

10.   349 - Burnt Hills NY - 2009#19 – AQ

New York Girls –

1.       27 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 2010#1 = AQ

2.       60 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 2011#1 = AQ

3.       66 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 2008#1 = AQ

4.       74 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 2009#1 = AQ

5.       83 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 2007#1 = AQ

6.       84 - Saratoga Springs NY - 2011#2 = AQ

7.       104 - Saratoga Springs NY - 2010#2 = AQ

8.       147 - Saratoga Springs NY - 2009#2 = AQ

9.       193 - Saratoga Springs NY - 2008#4 = AQ

10.   194 - Saratoga Springs NY - 2007#3 = At-Large

11.   204 - Queensbury NY - 2008#5 = At-Large

12.   209 - Burnt Hills NY - 2007#5 = AQ

13.   225 - North Shore NY - 2011#9 = At-Large

14.   251 - Burnt Hills NY - 2008#8 = At-Large

15.   267 - North Shore NY - 2010#9 = At-Large

16.   284 - Queensbury NY - 2009#7 = At-Large

17.   285 - Shenendehowa NY - 2009#8 = At-Large

18.   301 - Warwick Valley NY - 2007#11 = At-Large

Northeast Boys –

1.       91 - Christian Brothers NJ - 2011#1 = AQ

2.       179 - Christian Brothers NJ - 2010#5 = AQ

3.       203 - Danbury CT - 2007#5 = AQ

4.       216 - West Windsor Plains N NJ - 2008#5 = AQ

5.       216 - Don Bosco NJ - 2008#6 = AQ

6.       256 - Brookline MA - 2007#7 = AQ

7.       272 - Don Bosco NJ - 2007#10 = At-Large

8.       284 - Bishop Hendricken RI - 2009#10 = AQ

9.       301 - North Allegeny PA - 2008#12 = At-Large

10.   378 - Pembroke MA - 2011#18 = AQ

11.   399 - Pembroke MA - 2010#19 = AQ

12.   422 - Germantown Friends PA - 2009#21 = AQ

13.   466 - Danbury CT - 2008#21 = At-Large

14.   512 - Westfield NJ - 2011#22 = At-Large

Northeast Girls –

1.       205 - Newton South MA - 2008#6 = AQ

2.       206 - Hanover NH - 2007#4 = At-Large

3.       250 - Lincoln-Sudbury MA - 2007#8 = AQ

4.       304 - Voorhees NJ - 2007#13 = AQ

5.       307 - Lincoln-Sudbury MA - 2008#14 = AQ

6.       352 - Bishop Feehan MA - 2009#15 = AQ

7.       447 - LaSalle Academy RI - 2009#21 = AQ

8.       449 - Voorhees NJ - 2010#20 = AQ

9.       455 - Champlain Valley VT - 2010#21 = AQ

10.   519 - Champlain Valley VT - 2011#21 = AQ

11.   543 - Hamilton-Wenham MA - 2011#22 – AQ

Southeast Boys –

1.       343 - Brookwood GA - 2009#18 = AQ

2.       353 - Brentwood TN - 2011#17 = AQ

3.       369 - Oak Ridge TN - 2007#18 = AQ

4.       381 - Jamestown VA - 2008#19 = AQ

5.       385 - Belen Jesuit FL - 2011#20 = AQ

6.       444 - Thomas Jefferson VA - 2007#22 = AQ

7.       461 - Midlothian VA - 2010#21 = AQ

8.       480 - Broughton NC - 2008#22 = AQ

9.       481 - Miami Columbus FL - 2009#22 = AQ

10.   522 - Brookwood GA - 2010#22 – AQ

Southeast Girls –

1.       182 - Tatnall DE - 2008#3 = AQ

2.       182 - Tatnall DE - 2011#3 = AQ

3.       215 - Mountain Brook AL - 2007#6 = At-Large

4.       223 - Blacksburg VA - 2009#6 = AQ

5.       244 - Tatnall DE - 2010#5 = AQ

6.       260 - Collins Hill GA - 2008#9 = AQ

7.       294 - Green Hope NC - 2010#10 = AQ

8.       330 - Hidden Valley VA - 2009#13 = At-Large

9.       346 - Tatnall DE - 2009#14 = AQ

10.   349 - Collins Hill GA - 2007#19 = AQ

11.   377 - Tatnall DE - 2007#20 = AQ

12.   442 - Assumption KY - 2011#18 = AQ

13.   465 - Midlothian VA - 2011#19 = At-Large

Southwest Boys –

1.       127 - Los Alamos NM - 2007#2 = AQ

2.       134 - Albuquerque Academy NM - 2007#3 = AQ

3.       157 - Davis UT - 2011#3 = AQ

4.       171 - Fort Collins CO - 2010#4 = AQ

5.       195 - American Fork UT - 2010#8 = AQ

6.       236 - Albuquerque Academy NM - 2009#5 = AQ

7.       247 - American Fork UT - 2009#8 = AQ

8.       257 - American Fork UT - 2011#6 = AQ

9.       281 - Albuquerque Academy NM - 2008#11 = AQ

10.   300 - Davis UT - 2010#11 = At-Large

11.   435 - Alta UT - 2008#20 – AQ

Southwest Girls –

1.       161 - Fort Collins CO - 2009#3 = AQ

2.       205 - Fort Collins CO - 2011#6 = AQ

3.       218 - Fort Collins CO - 2008#7 = AQ

4.       224 - Xavier College Prep AZ - 2011#8 = AQ

5.       241 - Fort Collins CO - 2007#7 = AQ

6.       247 - Fort Collins CO - 2010#6 = AQ

7.       281 - Davis UT - 2007#9 = AQ

8.       291 - The Classical Academy CO - 2009#9 = AQ

9.       293 - The Classical Academy CO - 2008#12 = AQ

10.   353 - Monarch CO - 2010#15 – AQ

South Boys –

1.       95 - Southlake Carroll TX - 2011#2 = AQ

2.       195 - Boerne Champion TX - 2009#1 = AQ

3.       197 - The Woodlands TX - 2007#4 = AQ

4.       197 - The Woodlands TX - 2008#4 = AQ

5.       207 - The Woodlands TX - 2009#3 = AQ

6.       223 - Cedar Park TX - 2008#8 = AQ

7.       267 - Marcus TX - 2010#10 = AQ

8.       289 - Cedar Park TX - 2009#11 = At-Large

9.       338 - Southlake Carroll TX - 2007#15 = AQ

10.   360 - Rogers AR - 2007#16 = At-Large

11.   373 - Southlake Carroll TX - 2010#17 = AQ

12.   407 - The Woodlands TX - 2010#20 = At-Large

13.   430 - The Woodlands TX - 2011#21 – AQ

South Girls –

1.       207 - Southlake Carroll TX - 2011#7 = AQ

2.       301 - The Woodlands TX - 2008#13 = AQ

3.       344 - Southlake Carroll TX - 2007#18 = AQ

4.       362 - Kingwood TX - 2009#16 = AQ

5.       399 - Kingwood TX - 2011#17 = AQ

6.       421 - Vista Ridge TX - 2008#18 = At-Large

7.       439 - The Woodlands TX - 2010#19 = AQ

8.       454 - Cinco Ranch TX - 2008#20 = AQ

9.       467 - Southlake Carroll TX - 2009#22 = AQ

10.   489 - Southlake Carroll TX - 2010#22 = AQ

11.   495 - Kingwood Park TX - 2008#22 = At-Large

12.   585 - Keller TX - 2007#22 – AQ

Midwest Boys –

1.       125 - Neuqua Valley IL - 2007#1 = AQ

2.       151 - York IL - 2008#2 = AQ

3.       165 - Columbus North IN - 2010#3 = AQ

4.       195 - Naperville North IL - 2008#3 = AQ

5.       208 - Loyola Academy IL - 2009#4 = At-Large

6.       255 - Palatine IL - 2011#5 = At-Large

7.       267 - York IL - 2007#9 = AQ

8.       268 - Columbus North IN - 2011#9 = AQ

9.       292 - Neuqua Valley IL - 2009#12 = AQ

10.   295 - York IL - 2009#13 = AQ

11.   296 - Medina OH - 2007#12 = At-Large

12.   318 - York IL - 2011#13 = AQ

13.   320 - Neuqua Valley IL - 2010#12 = At-Large

14.   326 - York IL - 2010#14 – AQ

Midwest Girls –

1.       182 - New Trier IL - 2011#4 = AQ

2.       195 - Magnificat OH - 2009#5 = AQ

3.       195 - Carmel IN - 2011#5 = AQ

4.       260 - Carmel IN - 2010#7 = AQ

5.       262 - Palatine IL - 2010#8 = AQ

6.       322 - Westfield IN - 2007#15 = AQ

7.       359 - Magnificat OH - 2008#16 = AQ

8.       378 - Geneva IL - 2008#17 = AQ

9.       399 - Wheaton-Warrenville South IL - 2010#18 = At-Large

10.   407 - Palatine IL - 2009#19 = AQ

11.   413 - Lake Central IN - 2007#21 – AQ

Heartland Boys –

1.       261 - Arrowhead WI - 2011#8 = AQ

2.       266 - Wayzata MN - 2010#9 = AQ

3.       296 - Stillwater MN - 2011#10 = AQ

4.       297 - Eden Prairie MN - 2009#14 = AQ

5.       307 - Bismarck ND - 2008#14 = AQ

6.       312 - Wayzata MN - 2009#16 = AQ

7.       341 - Wayzata MN - 2008#18 = AQ

8.       396 - Edina MN - 2010#18 = AQ

9.       403 - Wayzata MN - 2007#20 = AQ

10.   414 - Shawnee Mission-Northwest KS - 2007#21 – AQ

Heartland Girls –

1.       261 - Eden Praire MN - 2008#10 = AQ

2.       315 - Eden Praire MN - 2010#12 = AQ

3.       318 - Dowling Catholic IA - 2007#14 = AQ

4.       324 - Yankton SD - 2007#16 = AQ

5.       326 - Dowling Catholic IA - 2009#12 = AQ

6.       367 - Neenah WI - 2011#14 = AQ

7.       385 - Dowling Catholic IA - 2010#17 = AQ

8.       418 - Elk River MN - 2009#20 = AQ

9.       438 - Sioux Falls-Roosevelt SD - 2008#19 = AQ

10.   480 - Monticello MN - 2011#20 – AQ

Northwest Boys –

1.       134 - North Central WA - 2008#1 = AQ

2.       186 - North Central WA - 2010#6 = AQ

3.       201 - Joel Ferris WA - 2009#2 = AQ

4.       220 - North Central WA - 2007#6 = AQ

5.       239 - North Central WA - 2009#7 = AQ

6.       259 - North Central WA - 2011#7 = AQ

7.       305 - Jesuit OR - 2008#13 = AQ

8.       312 - Central Catholic OR - 2007#13 = AQ

9.       323 - Gig Harbor WA - 2011#15 = AQ

10.   339 - Lewis and Clark WA - 2010#15 – AQ

Northwest Girls –

1.       227 - Jesuit OR - 2010#4 = AQ

2.       295 - St. Mary's Academy OR - 2007#10 = AQ

3.       297 - Bozeman MT - 2010#11 = AQ

4.       304 - Jesuit OR - 2007#12 = AQ

5.       316 - Jesuit OR - 2008#15 = AQ

6.       318 - Jesuit OR - 2009#11 = AQ

7.       368 - Summit OR - 2011#15 = AQ

8.       376 - Glacier Peak WA - 2011#16 = AQ

9.       395 - Bishop Kelly ID - 2009#18 = AQ

10.   485 - Eastlake WA - 2008#21 = AQ

No comments:

Post a Comment