Friday, December 21, 2012

NXN History update

Here is a little update on how programs and regions have fared at NXN since regional qualifiers began (2007) based on average points scored (adjusted for teams that haven’t qualified all six years). Note that these numbers are NOT weighted towards more recent years, this is just a simple average… a look including recent trends would also be a valuable tool, and I will probably reference it at some point over the next year.


Top Eight Boys Programs –

1.       197.33 North Central WA

2.       264.67 York IL

3.       294.33 Arcadia CA

4.       305.17 American Fork UT

5.       316.67 Fayetteville-Manlius NY

6.       325.33 Christian Brothers NJ

7.       327.33 The Woodlands TX

8.       343.67 Southlake Carroll TX


Top Eight Girls Programs –

1.       60.67 Fayetteville-Manlius NY

2.       156.67 Saratoga Springs NY

3.       218.33 Fort Collins CO

4.       221.17 Saugus CA

5.       258.33 Tatnall DE

6.       362.50 Jesuit OR

7.       363.17 Carmel IN

8.       368.33 Southlake Carroll TX


Average Region Score – Boys Auto-Qualifiers

1.       222.50 Southwest

2.       241.75 Midwest

3.       241.92 Northwest

4.       252.83 Northeast

5.       270.75 California

6.       274.50 South

7.       293.83 New York

8.       344.00 Heartland

9.       399.83 Southeast


Average Region Score – Girls Auto-Qualifiers

1.       109.92 New York

2.       252.75 Southwest

3.       279.42 California

4.       282.67 Southeast

5.       293.42 Midwest

6.       331.08 Northwest

7.       354.92 Heartland

8.       383.25 Northeast

9.       390.33 South


Average Region Score – Boys Top 2 Finishers (and # of At-Large bids received)

1.       222.50 Southwest (1 At-Large)

2.       227.33 Midwest (5 At-Large)

3.       241.92 Northwest (1 At-Large)

4.       251.33 California (9 At-Large)

5.       252.83 Northeast (5 At-Large)

6.       274.50 South (3 At-Large)

7.       293.83 New York (0 At-Large)

8.       344.00 Heartland (0 At-Large)

9.       399.83 Southeast (0 At-Large)


Average Region Score – Girls Top 2 Finishers (and # of At-Large bids received)

1.       108.17 New York (9 At-Large)

2.       252.75 Southwest (1 At-Large)

3.       263.25 California (6 At-Large)

4.       267.83 Southeast (3 At-Large)

5.       288.08 Midwest (2 At-Large)

6.       331.08 Northwest (0 At-Large)

7.       354.92 Heartland (0 At-Large)

8.       375.08 Northeast (1 At-Large)

9.       387.58 South (2 At-Large)


  1. Maybe the SW deserves a stronger look for at-large births... ? Maybe Cali not as deserving as all the births they get? (On the boys side)

  2. Yes/no. I do think the Southwest should have been in serious consideration most years (2008 being about the only exception)... but I don't think many - if any - of the California invites haven't been deserving enough to be included. Does that mean all those CA teams should have been picked over all those SW teams? Not necessarily, I think many of the teams were similar enough.

    Part of it is complicated by the difference between how good teams look going in versus how well they run at NXN. Other times, it is complicated by how strong a regions' front two teams are compared to the #3/4 teams, and also how big of a difference that gap becomes in a stronger field (National vs. Regional).

    I think the Southwest has certainly had more teams capable of doing well at NXN that haven't gone (as have other regions), but I'm not sure many if any of the California teams invited shouldn't have been.

  3. Also, for whatever it's worth, I think the Southwest girls have been the most overlooked region to date, not the Southwest boys. It is consistently, in my opinion, a top-4 region at the very worst, yet has only gotten ONE at-large bid (this year, though that team didn't run particularly well which doesn't help their case).

  4. I agree with the depth of a region - Obviously the SW has been strong with the boys at the top (AF/Davis - ABQ/LosAl before them).

    I agree the girls have been very strong too - stronger than the boys. Co girls are awesome, Az usually has one or two strong, as well as NM, and Ut is getting pretty strong on the girls side also.

    One thing that hurts the SW (and other larger geographical regions) has to be size. It is not easy for a team from the SW to travel to another region. A big trip like that would be thousands of $. Whereas a trip outside the region in most other places is easier.

  5. Agree - same goes for the South region, particularly Texas. While historically the South has been weak, especially on the girls' side, this is changing thanks at least in part to their move to 5K. They are definitely on their way up. Yet the individual girls from Texas tend to get overlooked in the rankings throughout the season since they rarely compete with girls from other states. There was only one Texas girls in the rankings all season long (Jochen). It was easy to include her since she qualified for both NXN and FLCC last year. She finished 5th at both NXN and FLCCC this year, though she was never ranked near the top ten all season. No other Texas girl made the rankings all season long (until the final rankings where Raines was included after placing 11th at FLCC). Two other Texas girls placed 14th (Boreman) & 18th (Jensen) at NXN. And there were at least two other girls in the mix with these throughout the regular season (McLellan, Rathjen). Many of the nation's top marks in XC and track 3200m are posted by Texans. Texas girls should be given more consideration in regular-season rankings even though it is difficult to figure out where they fit in.