note: District II held their qualifier last week, so see the post on the Northwest Washington League Championships for the 4A KingCo state qualifiers.
4A District I (Oct. 29)
Estimate: 200.0 = 14:59.02
Boys =
1 - 12 - Matthew Watkins - 15:49.42 - Henry Jackson - 183.2
2 - 12 - Cullen McEachern - 16:14.61 - Kamiak - 174.8
3 - 10 - Riley McDowell - 16:31.14 - Glacier Peak - 169.3
4 - 12 - Noah Wallace - 16:32.94 - Lake Stevens - 168.7
5 - 12 - Chris Bianchini - 16:36.06 - Glacier Peak - 167.6
6 - 12 - Nick Stringer - 16:36.71 - Glacier Peak - 167.4
7 - 12 - Trevor Allen - 16:39.23 - Lake Stevens - 166.6
8 - 12 - Anthony Garcia - 16:43.78 - Henry Jackson - 165.0
9 - 11 - Nicholas Mullineux'Perrault - 16:47.67 - Glacier Peak - 163.7
10 - 11 - Caleb Grode - 16:48.04 - Henry Jackson - 163.6
11 - 11 - Blake Braaten - 16:48.88 - Lake Stevens - 163.3
12 - 10 - Kayto Krueger - 16:49.23 - Lake Stevens - 163.2
13 - 9 - Nathan Tastad - 16:50.09 - Glacier Peak - 162.9
14 - 11 - Mateo Rivera - 16:50.85 - Henry Jackson - 162.7
15 - 10 - Joseph Skoog - 17:05.67 - Henry Jackson - 157.7
3 - 10 - Riley McDowell - 16:31.14 - Glacier Peak - 169.3
5 - 12 - Chris Bianchini - 16:36.06 - Glacier Peak - 167.6
6 - 12 - Nick Stringer - 16:36.71 - Glacier Peak - 167.4
9 - 11 - Nicholas Mullineux'Perrault - 16:47.67 - Glacier Peak - 163.7
13 - 9 - Nathan Tastad - 16:50.09 - Glacier Peak - 162.9
19 - 10 - Tyler Tanta - 17:19.92 - Glacier Peak - 153.0
20 - 11 - Tim Mandzyuk - 17:23.15 - Glacier Peak - 151.9
1 - 12 - Matthew Watkins - 15:49.42 - Henry Jackson - 183.2
8 - 12 - Anthony Garcia - 16:43.78 - Henry Jackson - 165.0
10 - 11 - Caleb Grode - 16:48.04 - Henry Jackson - 163.6
14 - 11 - Mateo Rivera - 16:50.85 - Henry Jackson - 162.7
15 - 10 - Joseph Skoog - 17:05.67 - Henry Jackson - 157.7
17 - 9 - Elijah Lopez - 17:15.99 - Henry Jackson - 154.3
26 - 11 - Micah Ramos - 17:58.21 - Henry Jackson - 140.2
4 - 12 - Noah Wallace - 16:32.94 - Lake Stevens - 168.7
7 - 12 - Trevor Allen - 16:39.23 - Lake Stevens - 166.6
11 - 11 - Blake Braaten - 16:48.88 - Lake Stevens - 163.3
12 - 10 - Kayto Krueger - 16:49.23 - Lake Stevens - 163.2
16 - 12 - Ruben Aguero - 17:08.26 - Lake Stevens - 156.9
21 - 10 - Bryce Mefford - 17:23.41 - Lake Stevens - 151.8
23 - 11 - Jacob Headland - 17:48.24 - Lake Stevens - 143.5
Girls =
1 - 10 - Taylor Roe - 18:23.35 - Lake Stevens - 131.8
2 - 10 - Alicia Anderson - 19:12.63 - Kamiak - 115.4
3 - 10 - Brooke Wallace - 19:34.42 - Glacier Peak - 108.1
4 - 9 - Abigail Hill - 19:35.63 - Lake Stevens - 107.7
5 - 12 - Heidi Smith - 19:37.97 - Glacier Peak - 106.9
6 - 12 - Abbie Steinhauer - 19:38.29 - Mariner - 106.8
7 - 12 - Katherine Slack - 19:43.67 - Kamiak - 105.0
8 - 12 - Natalie Church - 19:48.59 - Glacier Peak - 103.4
9 - 10 - Kaley Maurer - 19:48.87 - Monroe - 103.3
10 - 11 - Maria Rivera-Valles - 19:49.21 - Mt Vernon - 103.2
11 - 9 - Alexis Palmer - 19:50.74 - Glacier Peak - 102.7
12 - 10 - Leah Clark - 19:52.20 - Kamiak - 102.2
13 - 11 - Savannah Hastings - 19:56.26 - Monroe - 100.8
14 - 10 - Briana Heng - 19:56.91 - Henry Jackson - 100.6
15 - 12 - Erin Boyle - 20:04.09 - Glacier Peak - 98.2
3 - 10 - Brooke Wallace - 19:34.42 - Glacier Peak - 108.1
5 - 12 - Heidi Smith - 19:37.97 - Glacier Peak - 106.9
8 - 12 - Natalie Church - 19:48.59 - Glacier Peak - 103.4
11 - 9 - Alexis Palmer - 19:50.74 - Glacier Peak - 102.7
15 - 12 - Erin Boyle - 20:04.09 - Glacier Peak - 98.2
19 - 9 - Aviry Stratton - 20:35.50 - Glacier Peak - 87.7
35 - 11 - Elena Willems - 21:50.19 - Glacier Peak - 62.8
2 - 10 - Alicia Anderson - 19:12.63 - Kamiak - 115.4
7 - 12 - Katherine Slack - 19:43.67 - Kamiak - 105.0
12 - 10 - Leah Clark - 19:52.20 - Kamiak - 102.2
16 - 10 - Tracey Hatch - 20:10.82 - Kamiak - 96.0
26 - 9 - Gloria Lee - 21:13.33 - Kamiak - 75.1
48 - 12 - Caroline Ferguson - 23:08.21 - Kamiak - 36.8
1 - 10 - Taylor Roe - 18:23.35 - Lake Stevens - 131.8
4 - 9 - Abigail Hill - 19:35.63 - Lake Stevens - 107.7
18 - 10 - Faith Brooks - 20:32.83 - Lake Stevens - 88.6
20 - 12 - Tiffany Roe - 20:39.51 - Lake Stevens - 86.4
22 - 9 - Shelby Teter - 20:50.28 - Lake Stevens - 82.8
25 - 9 - Jessica Schneider - 21:08.12 - Lake Stevens - 76.8
30 - 10 - Rory Flinn - 21:31.48 - Lake Stevens - 69.0
4A Southwest Regional (Oct. 29)
Estimate: 200.0 = 15:01.29
Boys =
1 - 12 - Yacine Guermali - 15:51.8 - Camas - 183.2
2 - 10 - Daniel Maton - 16:17.1 - Camas - 174.8
3 - 11 - Dawson Besst - 16:21.6 - Tahoma - 173.3
4 - 12 - Ben Jacot - 16:29.4 - Curtis - 170.7
5 - 10 - Jacob Simon - 16:42.2 - South Kitsap - 166.4
6 - 11 - Dennis Keith - 16:45.6 - Curtis - 165.3
7 - 11 - Colin Monaghan - 16:50.2 - Puyallup - 163.7
8 - 12 - Chanse Gilbert - 16:54.2 - Skyview - 162.4
9 - 12 - Zeke Oien - 16:54.7 - Skyview - 162.3
10 - 12 - Lance Slichko - 16:56.1 - Emerald Ridge - 161.8
11 - 12 - Colton Egberg - 16:57.5 - Tahoma - 161.3
12 - 10 - Chandler Nill - 16:57.7 - Tahoma - 161.3
13 - 11 - Fanuel Weldeselassie - 16:58.8 - Kentridge - 160.9
14 - 10 - Jackson Lyne - 17:00.4 - Camas - 160.4
15 - 11 - Lucas Pierson - 17:01.5 - Bellarmine Prep - 160.0
16 - 12 - Luke Ostrander - 17:02.5 - Bellarmine Prep - 159.7
17 - 12 - Cameron Wyman - 17:02.6 - Bellarmine Prep - 159.6
18 - 10 - Ben Sherman - 17:03.2 - Bellarmine Prep - 159.4
19 - 11 - Deven Patel - 17:03.2 - Bellarmine Prep - 159.4
20 - 11 - Spencer Fischer - 17:03.3 - Bellarmine Prep - 159.4
21 - 12 - Miguel De La Melena - 17:05.6 - Union - 158.6
22 - 11 - AJ Chopra - 17:06.4 - Todd Beamer - 158.4
23 - 11 - Dash Penney - 17:06.7 - Sumner - 158.3
24 - 12 - Wobi Torujo - 17:08.3 - Kentridge - 157.7
25 - 10 - Ryan Cibart - 17:08.8 - Heritage - 157.6
26 - 12 - Nicholas Carter - 17:09.5 - Camas - 157.3
27 - 12 - Lincoln Marino - 17:11.2 - Kennedy Catholic - 156.8
28 - 11 - Drew Hovde - 17:12.3 - Emerald Ridge - 156.4
29 - 11 - Alec Ritter - 17:12.7 - Enumclaw - 156.3
30 - 12 - Jarad McKinney - 17:13.2 - Union - 156.1
31 - 11 - Dustin Williams - 17:13.4 - Auburn Riverside - 156.0
32 - 11 - Austin Miller - 17:14.8 - Thomas Jefferson - 155.6
33 - 11 - David Connell - 17:15.0 - Camas - 155.5
34 - 12 - Hezekiah Goodwin - 17:15.5 - Kentlake - 155.3
35 - 9 - Brian Martinez - 17:17.3 - Tahoma - 154.7
36 - 11 - Teagan Eldridge - 17:17.7 - Enumclaw - 154.6
37 - 11 - Jesse Kaas - 17:18.3 - Graham-Kapowsin - 154.4
38 - 10 - Marcus Sutrick - 17:18.5 - Auburn Riverside - 154.3
39 - 11 - Andrew Oslin - 17:18.5 - Puyallup - 154.3
40 - 12 - Harsimran Singh - 17:19.5 - Kentwood - 154.0
41 - 11 - Aidan Smith - 17:21.6 - Rogers (Puyallup) - 153.3
42 - 11 - Erik Harang - 17:22.2 - Mt Rainier - 153.1
43 - 9 - Ethan Martin - 17:24.3 - Tahoma - 152.4
44 - 12 - Joel Mott - 17:25.3 - Sumner - 152.1
45 - 10 - Josh Oie - 17:25.6 - Bellarmine Prep - 152.0
46 - 10 - Ross Principe - 17:26.8 - Kentwood - 151.6
47 - 12 - Austin Bass - 17:28.0 - Todd Beamer - 151.2
48 - 12 - Rajesh Gill - 17:28.8 - Thomas Jefferson - 150.9
49 - 9 - Jacob Laws - 17:30.1 - South Kitsap - 150.5
50 - 12 - Nick Duffy - 17:30.5 - Camas - 150.3
51 - 10 - Tilahun Castro - 17:31.2 - Olympia - 150.1
52 - 11 - Kobe Shields - 17:31.2 - Tahoma - 150.1
53 - 12 - Brock O'Neal - 17:31.7 - Kentridge - 149.9
54 - 12 - Boone Tate - 17:33.1 - Auburn Riverside - 149.5
55 - 12 - Maamoon Saleh - 17:33.5 - Kentridge - 149.3
56 - 11 - Sean Flynn - 17:33.6 - Skyview - 149.3
57 - 12 - Justin Hecht - 17:35.4 - Emerald Ridge - 148.7
58 - 12 - Raphael De Ocampo - 17:36.4 - Emerald Ridge - 148.4
59 - 10 - Noah Kropp - 17:37.0 - Thomas Jefferson - 148.2
60 - 10 - Sam Fleckenstein - 17:38.0 - Olympia - 147.8
1 - 12 - Yacine Guermali - 15:51.8 - Camas - 183.2
2 - 10 - Daniel Maton - 16:17.1 - Camas - 174.8
14 - 10 - Jackson Lyne - 17:00.4 - Camas - 160.4
26 - 12 - Nicholas Carter - 17:09.5 - Camas - 157.3
33 - 11 - David Connell - 17:15.0 - Camas - 155.5
50 - 12 - Nick Duffy - 17:30.5 - Camas - 150.3
75 - 12 - Cade Greseth - 17:51.2 - Camas - 143.4
15 - 11 - Lucas Pierson - 17:01.5 - Bellarmine Prep - 160.0
16 - 12 - Luke Ostrander - 17:02.5 - Bellarmine Prep - 159.7
17 - 12 - Cameron Wyman - 17:02.6 - Bellarmine Prep - 159.6
18 - 10 - Ben Sherman - 17:03.2 - Bellarmine Prep - 159.4
19 - 11 - Deven Patel - 17:03.2 - Bellarmine Prep - 159.4
20 - 11 - Spencer Fischer - 17:03.3 - Bellarmine Prep - 159.4
45 - 10 - Josh Oie - 17:25.6 - Bellarmine Prep - 152.0
3 - 11 - Dawson Besst - 16:21.6 - Tahoma - 173.3
11 - 12 - Colton Egberg - 16:57.5 - Tahoma - 161.3
12 - 10 - Chandler Nill - 16:57.7 - Tahoma - 161.3
35 - 9 - Brian Martinez - 17:17.3 - Tahoma - 154.7
43 - 9 - Ethan Martin - 17:24.3 - Tahoma - 152.4
52 - 11 - Kobe Shields - 17:31.2 - Tahoma - 150.1
112 - 12 - Devon Walters - 18:26.6 - Tahoma - 131.7
10 - 12 - Lance Slichko - 16:56.1 - Emerald Ridge - 161.8
28 - 11 - Drew Hovde - 17:12.3 - Emerald Ridge - 156.4
57 - 12 - Justin Hecht - 17:35.4 - Emerald Ridge - 148.7
58 - 12 - Raphael De Ocampo - 17:36.4 - Emerald Ridge - 148.4
69 - 10 - Sean McNabb - 17:46.8 - Emerald Ridge - 144.9
78 - 11 - Ben Clarke - 17:53.1 - Emerald Ridge - 142.8
130 - 9 - Jessie Foster - 18:44.0 - Emerald Ridge - 125.9
13 - 11 - Fanuel Weldeselassie - 16:58.8 - Kentridge - 160.9
24 - 12 - Wobi Torujo - 17:08.3 - Kentridge - 157.7
53 - 12 - Brock O'Neal - 17:31.7 - Kentridge - 149.9
55 - 12 - Maamoon Saleh - 17:33.5 - Kentridge - 149.3
79 - 11 - Isaiah Eller - 17:53.4 - Kentridge - 142.7
109 - 12 - Nathan Shine - 18:21.8 - Kentridge - 133.3
123 - 12 - Steven Kassebaum - 18:35.4 - Kentridge - 128.7
31 - 11 - Dustin Williams - 17:13.4 - Auburn Riverside - 156.0
38 - 10 - Marcus Sutrick - 17:18.5 - Auburn Riverside - 154.3
54 - 12 - Boone Tate - 17:33.1 - Auburn Riverside - 149.5
61 - 12 - Evan Polkow - 17:38.5 - Auburn Riverside - 147.7
65 - 11 - Andres Madrigal - 17:44.7 - Auburn Riverside - 145.6
73 - 12 - Elliott Crawford - 17:49.7 - Auburn Riverside - 143.9
76 - 11 - Kyle Bates - 17:52.2 - Auburn Riverside - 143.1
8 - 12 - Chanse Gilbert - 16:54.2 - Skyview - 162.4
9 - 12 - Zeke Oien - 16:54.7 - Skyview - 162.3
56 - 11 - Sean Flynn - 17:33.6 - Skyview - 149.3
66 - 11 - Bruce Erickson - 17:44.8 - Skyview - 145.6
119 - 12 - Zach Phillips - 18:33.5 - Skyview - 129.4
126 - 10 - Alex Miller - 18:38.4 - Skyview - 127.7
135 - 12 - Parker Bennion - 18:48.0 - Skyview - 124.5
4 - 12 - Ben Jacot - 16:29.4 - Curtis - 170.7
6 - 11 - Dennis Keith - 16:45.6 - Curtis - 165.3
80 - 10 - Ewan Steers - 17:53.7 - Curtis - 142.6
86 - 9 - Aaron VanValkenberg - 17:57.4 - Curtis - 141.4
98 - 11 - Brody Sodon - 18:09.7 - Curtis - 137.3
127 - 10 - Nathaniel Dobosz - 18:38.9 - Curtis - 127.6
128 - 12 - Kaoru Toyokawa - 18:39.3 - Curtis - 127.4
21 - 12 - Miguel De La Melena - 17:05.6 - Union - 158.6
30 - 12 - Jarad McKinney - 17:13.2 - Union - 156.1
74 - 12 - Dawson Shoup - 17:50.1 - Union - 143.8
85 - 11 - Owen Murphy - 17:57.1 - Union - 141.5
88 - 12 - Chad Richards - 17:59.6 - Union - 140.6
93 - 11 - Aaron Avery - 18:04.4 - Union - 139.1
124 - 11 - Micah Goff - 18:36.3 - Union - 128.4
Girls =
1 - 11 - Emma Jenkins - 18:34.7 - Camas - 129.0
2 - 10 - Shannon Gifford - 18:58.1 - Hazen - 121.2
3 - 12 - Rachel Kastama - 19:00.3 - Puyallup - 120.4
4 - 11 - Ellen Burbank - 19:09.9 - Skyview - 117.2
5 - 11 - Ellie Postma - 19:16.3 - Camas - 115.1
6 - 9 - Halle Jenkins - 19:16.3 - Camas - 115.1
7 - 10 - Haylee Brodahl - 19:20.3 - Union - 113.8
8 - 11 - Breanna Glover - 19:33.8 - Tahoma - 109.3
9 - 11 - Karli Maenhout - 19:40.8 - Bellarmine Prep - 107.0
10 - 12 - Kiersten Kimminau - 19:43.8 - Olympia - 106.0
11 - 11 - Emma Sjolund - 19:49.3 - Sumner - 104.1
12 - 10 - Presley Timmons - 19:55.3 - Skyview - 102.1
13 - 10 - Paxton DePoe - 19:57.8 - South Kitsap - 101.3
14 - 12 - Olivia Baerny - 19:57.8 - Kent Meridian - 101.3
15 - 11 - Emily Barrett - 20:00.1 - Curtis - 100.5
16 - 12 - Nicole Soleim - 20:06.2 - Kentwood - 98.5
17 - 10 - Melinda Day - 20:08.3 - Tahoma - 97.8
18 - 10 - Allison Baerny - 20:08.4 - Kent Meridian - 97.8
19 - 12 - Sofia Ries - 20:08.7 - Bellarmine Prep - 97.7
20 - 11 - Emma Bates - 20:09.5 - Emerald Ridge - 97.4
21 - 11 - Kaylee Merritt - 20:09.9 - Camas - 97.3
22 - 10 - Rachel Blair - 20:10.1 - Camas - 97.2
23 - 11 - Stella Grimsted - 20:12.5 - Olympia - 96.4
24 - 11 - Hunter Storm - 20:15.3 - Enumclaw - 95.5
25 - 11 - Kenzie Richards - 20:20.2 - Curtis - 93.8
26 - 10 - Kristina Ihlen - 20:21.2 - South Kitsap - 93.5
27 - 9 - Mattilyn Hohn - 20:21.4 - Tahoma - 93.4
28 - 10 - Keara Daley - 20:21.8 - Hazen - 93.3
29 - 10 - Rachel Dennis - 20:23.4 - Hazen - 92.8
30 - 10 - Ally Peterson - 20:24.0 - Thomas Jefferson - 92.6
31 - 10 - Madison Egan - 20:25.0 - Rogers (Puyallup) - 92.3
32 - 11 - Katarina Zosel - 20:25.7 - Tahoma - 92.0
33 - 10 - Isabella Abbruzzese - 20:26.1 - Skyview - 91.9
34 - 9 - Mayela Perez-Alvarez - 20:27.3 - Thomas Jefferson - 91.5
35 - 11 - Samantha Goedde - 20:28.4 - Auburn Mountainview - 91.1
36 - 11 - Krystal Kaufman - 20:29.1 - Skyview - 90.9
37 - 10 - Serena Smith - 20:30.4 - Union - 90.5
38 - 11 - Lily Grassley - 20:33.8 - Kennedy Catholic - 89.3
39 - 10 - Marissa Tweedy - 20:36.0 - Kennedy Catholic - 88.6
40 - 12 - Daniela Reyna - 20:37.0 - Hazen - 88.3
41 - 10 - Bea Pugeda - 20:37.0 - Bellarmine Prep - 88.3
42 - 11 - London Jensen - 20:37.2 - Hazen - 88.2
43 - 11 - Olivia Chong - 20:37.2 - Federal Way - 88.2
44 - 10 - Bethany Forward - 20:37.2 - Federal Way - 88.2
45 - 12 - Bryce Hustead - 20:38.2 - Bellarmine Prep - 87.9
46 - 12 - Sarah Kastama - 20:38.8 - Puyallup - 87.7
47 - 12 - Phoenix Aguilar - 20:40.0 - Tahoma - 87.3
48 - 10 - Victoria Delk - 20:41.2 - Thomas Jefferson - 86.9
49 - 12 - Sofia Thomas - 20:41.9 - Bellarmine Prep - 86.6
50 - 10 - Payton Roberson - 20:43.5 - Enumclaw - 86.1
51 - 11 - Destany Abellera - 20:44.1 - Auburn Riverside - 85.9
52 - 10 - Eugenia Palko - 20:46.2 - South Kitsap - 85.2
53 - 12 - Eva Knowles - 20:46.5 - South Kitsap - 85.1
54 - 12 - Keely Gorospe - 20:50.8 - Curtis - 83.7
55 - 9 - Hannah Scheerer - 20:51.3 - Emerald Ridge - 83.5
56 - 11 - Emma Colley - 20:53.9 - Emerald Ridge - 82.6
57 - 12 - Kayla Contreras - 20:56.0 - Tahoma - 81.9
58 - 10 - Maggie Bauer - 20:56.1 - Curtis - 81.9
59 - 9 - Kaija Ogan - 20:57.0 - South Kitsap - 81.6
60 - 11 - Brooke Roy - 20:59.0 - Camas - 80.9
1 - 11 - Emma Jenkins - 18:34.7 - Camas - 129.0
5 - 11 - Ellie Postma - 19:16.3 - Camas - 115.1
6 - 9 - Halle Jenkins - 19:16.3 - Camas - 115.1
21 - 11 - Kaylee Merritt - 20:09.9 - Camas - 97.3
22 - 10 - Rachel Blair - 20:10.1 - Camas - 97.2
60 - 11 - Brooke Roy - 20:59.0 - Camas - 80.9
79 - 11 - Paige Neff - 21:35.7 - Camas - 68.7
8 - 11 - Breanna Glover - 19:33.8 - Tahoma - 109.3
17 - 10 - Melinda Day - 20:08.3 - Tahoma - 97.8
27 - 9 - Mattilyn Hohn - 20:21.4 - Tahoma - 93.4
32 - 11 - Katarina Zosel - 20:25.7 - Tahoma - 92.0
47 - 12 - Phoenix Aguilar - 20:40.0 - Tahoma - 87.3
57 - 12 - Kayla Contreras - 20:56.0 - Tahoma - 81.9
67 - 10 - Moira Woods - 21:16.6 - Tahoma - 75.1
2 - 10 - Shannon Gifford - 18:58.1 - Hazen - 121.2
28 - 10 - Keara Daley - 20:21.8 - Hazen - 93.3
29 - 10 - Rachel Dennis - 20:23.4 - Hazen - 92.8
40 - 12 - Daniela Reyna - 20:37.0 - Hazen - 88.3
42 - 11 - London Jensen - 20:37.2 - Hazen - 88.2
76 - 10 - Erin Yee - 21:30.4 - Hazen - 70.5
125 - 9 - Clare Morris - 22:52.1 - Hazen - 43.3
9 - 11 - Karli Maenhout - 19:40.8 - Bellarmine Prep - 107.0
19 - 12 - Sofia Ries - 20:08.7 - Bellarmine Prep - 97.7
41 - 10 - Bea Pugeda - 20:37.0 - Bellarmine Prep - 88.3
45 - 12 - Bryce Hustead - 20:38.2 - Bellarmine Prep - 87.9
49 - 12 - Sofia Thomas - 20:41.9 - Bellarmine Prep - 86.6
61 - 11 - Elena Secaira - 21:02.4 - Bellarmine Prep - 79.8
100 - 10 - Ellie Cummings - 22:05.4 - Bellarmine Prep - 58.8
4 - 11 - Ellen Burbank - 19:09.9 - Skyview - 117.2
12 - 10 - Presley Timmons - 19:55.3 - Skyview - 102.1
33 - 10 - Isabella Abbruzzese - 20:26.1 - Skyview - 91.9
36 - 11 - Krystal Kaufman - 20:29.1 - Skyview - 90.9
83 - 9 - Makena Harbertson - 21:46.9 - Skyview - 65.0
95 - 11 - Emily Hogan - 22:01.4 - Skyview - 60.2
147 - 10 - Sophie Friauf - 24:29.9 - Skyview - 10.7
13 - 10 - Paxton DePoe - 19:57.8 - South Kitsap - 101.3
26 - 10 - Kristina Ihlen - 20:21.2 - South Kitsap - 93.5
52 - 10 - Eugenia Palko - 20:46.2 - South Kitsap - 85.2
53 - 12 - Eva Knowles - 20:46.5 - South Kitsap - 85.1
59 - 9 - Kaija Ogan - 20:57.0 - South Kitsap - 81.6
74 - 10 - Casandra Hebert - 21:25.9 - South Kitsap - 72.0
80 - 11 - Breann Ewing - 21:38.3 - South Kitsap - 67.9
15 - 11 - Emily Barrett - 20:00.1 - Curtis - 100.5
25 - 11 - Kenzie Richards - 20:20.2 - Curtis - 93.8
54 - 12 - Keely Gorospe - 20:50.8 - Curtis - 83.7
58 - 10 - Maggie Bauer - 20:56.1 - Curtis - 81.9
64 - 10 - Rees Jacot - 21:05.8 - Curtis - 78.7
72 - 11 - Sydney Reilly-Treat - 21:24.0 - Curtis - 72.6
124 - 11 - Alexia Sioda - 22:51.4 - Curtis - 43.5
7 - 10 - Haylee Brodahl - 19:20.3 - Union - 113.8
37 - 10 - Serena Smith - 20:30.4 - Union - 90.5
62 - 9 - Drew Lobis - 21:05.3 - Union - 78.8
65 - 9 - Mackenzie Berg - 21:07.5 - Union - 78.1
71 - 12 - Allie Connell - 21:22.2 - Union - 73.2
82 - 10 - Brooklyn Jackson - 21:42.7 - Union - 66.4
90 - 11 - Alex Taylor - 21:57.1 - Union - 61.6
3 - 12 - Rachel Kastama - 19:00.3 - Puyallup - 120.4
46 - 12 - Sarah Kastama - 20:38.8 - Puyallup - 87.7
75 - 9 - Veronica Caldwell - 21:29.5 - Puyallup - 70.8
87 - 11 - Emily Van Bergeyk - 21:52.1 - Puyallup - 63.3
94 - 11 - Haley Keizur - 21:59.6 - Puyallup - 60.8
106 - 11 - Jordan Culpepper - 22:14.4 - Puyallup - 55.8
110 - 10 - Sarah Hatcher - 22:25.5 - Puyallup - 52.1
4A Eastern Regional (Oct. 29)
Estimate: 200.0 = 14:10.26
Boys =
1 - 12 - Amir Ado - 14:54.30 - Joel Ferris - 184.5
2 - 10 - Ryan Kline - 15:07.03 - Central Valley - 180.0
3 - 11 - Turlan Morlan - 15:08.83 - Gonzaga Prep - 179.3
4 - 10 - Riley Moore - 15:19.75 - Richland - 175.5
5 - 11 - Gabe Romney - 15:22.84 - Central Valley - 174.4
6 - 11 - Anthony Stone - 15:24.72 - Richland - 173.7
7 - 10 - Caleb Olson - 15:27.97 - Hanford - 172.6
8 - 11 - Spencer Swaim - 15:29.73 - Lewis and Clark - 172.0
9 - 12 - Zak Kindl - 15:30.61 - Lewis and Clark - 171.6
10 - 10 - Evan Peters - 15:31.14 - Central Valley - 171.5
11 - 11 - Todd Bloom - 15:31.57 - Joel Ferris - 171.3
12 - 12 - Alex Iben - 15:31.93 - Walla Walla - 171.2
13 - 12 - Joe Hawkins - 15:34.99 - University - 170.1
14 - 11 - Alek Kvokov - 15:36.37 - Mead - 169.6
15 - 12 - Kris Braunberger - 15:40.65 - Gonzaga Prep - 168.1
2 - 10 - Ryan Kline - 15:07.03 - Central Valley - 180.0
5 - 11 - Gabe Romney - 15:22.84 - Central Valley - 174.4
10 - 10 - Evan Peters - 15:31.14 - Central Valley - 171.5
19 - 10 - Sheamus Mahoney - 15:48.25 - Central Valley - 165.4
21 - 10 - Joey Nicholls - 15:54.65 - Central Valley - 163.2
22 - 12 - Ryan Hunter - 15:58.16 - Central Valley - 161.9
23 - 11 - Fielding Demars - 15:58.50 - Central Valley - 161.8
1 - 12 - Amir Ado - 14:54.30 - Joel Ferris - 184.5
11 - 11 - Todd Bloom - 15:31.57 - Joel Ferris - 171.3
16 - 11 - Wilson Ladd - 15:40.99 - Joel Ferris - 168.0
18 - 11 - Jacob Stirpe - 15:47.94 - Joel Ferris - 165.5
25 - 10 - Chad Caviness - 16:03.97 - Joel Ferris - 159.9
27 - 12 - Jackson Burkhart - 16:09.06 - Joel Ferris - 158.1
48 - 10 - William Miller - 16:47.88 - Joel Ferris - 144.4
8 - 11 - Spencer Swaim - 15:29.73 - Lewis and Clark - 172.0
9 - 12 - Zak Kindl - 15:30.61 - Lewis and Clark - 171.6
17 - 10 - Patrick Korus - 15:44.62 - Lewis and Clark - 166.7
20 - 11 - Carter Ledwith - 15:48.62 - Lewis and Clark - 165.3
30 - 9 - Wil Smith - 16:11.80 - Lewis and Clark - 157.1
32 - 12 - Jackson McFaul - 16:12.68 - Lewis and Clark - 156.8
38 - 10 - Brett Bergler - 16:25.59 - Lewis and Clark - 152.3
Girls =
1 - 12 - Kearan Nelson - 17:03.93 - Central Valley - 138.7
2 - 11 - Katie Thronson - 17:05.69 - Lewis and Clark - 138.1
3 - 11 - Abby Smith - 18:05.95 - Lewis and Clark - 116.8
4 - 11 - Hannah Barone - 18:10.68 - Mead - 115.2
5 - 11 - Claire Dingus - 18:16.99 - University - 112.9
6 - 12 - Jenna Rogers - 18:22.02 - Mead - 111.2
7 - 11 - Katie Andrus - 18:26.19 - Richland - 109.7
8 - 11 - Rebecca Lehman - 18:26.82 - University - 109.5
9 - 9 - Leah Carney - 18:29.78 - Gonzaga Prep - 108.4
10 - 10 - Kenzie Gaines - 18:32.33 - Lewis and Clark - 107.5
11 - 12 - Gabrielle Ford - 18:41.95 - Central Valley - 104.1
12 - 9 - Kendra Keller - 18:43.58 - Hanford - 103.6
13 - 9 - Olivia Sine - 18:45.30 - Central Valley - 103.0
14 - 12 - Erika Leinweber - 18:47.63 - Walla Walla - 102.1
15 - 12 - Anna Fomin - 18:50.14 - Central Valley - 101.2
1 - 12 - Kearan Nelson - 17:03.93 - Central Valley - 138.7
11 - 12 - Gabrielle Ford - 18:41.95 - Central Valley - 104.1
13 - 9 - Olivia Sine - 18:45.30 - Central Valley - 103.0
15 - 12 - Anna Fomin - 18:50.14 - Central Valley - 101.2
17 - 11 - Erica Pecha - 18:56.75 - Central Valley - 98.9
19 - 11 - Anna Pecha - 19:06.63 - Central Valley - 95.4
25 - 10 - Ali Tolman - 19:29.42 - Central Valley - 87.4
2 - 11 - Katie Thronson - 17:05.69 - Lewis and Clark - 138.1
3 - 11 - Abby Smith - 18:05.95 - Lewis and Clark - 116.8
10 - 10 - Kenzie Gaines - 18:32.33 - Lewis and Clark - 107.5
20 - 11 - Madeline Pincock - 19:13.54 - Lewis and Clark - 93.0
23 - 11 - Emily Armstrong - 19:27.05 - Lewis and Clark - 88.2
27 - 12 - Olivia Rabin - 19:36.18 - Lewis and Clark - 85.0
38 - 12 - Emily Phillip - 20:05.11 - Lewis and Clark - 74.8
4 - 11 - Hannah Barone - 18:10.68 - Mead - 115.2
6 - 12 - Jenna Rogers - 18:22.02 - Mead - 111.2
16 - 12 - Hannah Tomeo - 18:51.28 - Mead - 100.8
21 - 12 - Sydney Brieher - 19:16.39 - Mead - 92.0
26 - 12 - Makayla Lewis - 19:30.49 - Mead - 87.0
28 - 9 - Faith Tobiason - 19:37.56 - Mead - 84.5
33 - 10 - Delaney Phillips - 19:44.88 - Mead - 81.9
4A District VI (Oct. 27)
Estimate: 200.0 = 14:11.33
Boys =
1 - 12 - Ronan Price - 15:40.9 - Eisenhower - 168.4
2 - 10 - Alfonso Cuevas - 15:41.6 - Eisenhower - 168.2
3 - 9 - Jonas Price - 15:50.0 - Eisenhower - 165.2
4 - 12 - Moses Lurbur - 16:21.8 - Wenatchee - 154.0
5 - 11 - Fernando Anaya - 16:33.4 - A.C. Davis - 149.9
6 - 12 - Ulyses Ayala - 16:33.5 - Eisenhower - 149.9
7 - 11 - Angel Cuevas - 16:35.1 - Eisenhower - 149.3
8 - 10 - Quentin Rickey - 16:36.5 - West Valley (Yakima) - 148.8
9 - 11 - Zachery Owens - 16:36.8 - Moses Lake - 148.7
10 - 11 - Rogelio Mares - 16:37.4 - Eisenhower - 148.5
11 - 10 - Joshua Cooper - 16:37.5 - Moses Lake - 148.5
12 - 12 - Zakary Bishop - 16:37.6 - Moses Lake - 148.5
13 - 12 - Drew Whited - 16:38.1 - Eastmont - 148.3
14 - 10 - Steven Dray - 16:38.2 - West Valley (Yakima) - 148.2
15 - 10 - Gus Wavra - 16:39.3 - Eastmont - 147.9
1 - 12 - Ronan Price - 15:40.9 - Eisenhower - 168.4
2 - 10 - Alfonso Cuevas - 15:41.6 - Eisenhower - 168.2
3 - 9 - Jonas Price - 15:50.0 - Eisenhower - 165.2
6 - 12 - Ulyses Ayala - 16:33.5 - Eisenhower - 149.9
7 - 11 - Angel Cuevas - 16:35.1 - Eisenhower - 149.3
10 - 11 - Rogelio Mares - 16:37.4 - Eisenhower - 148.5
16 - 11 - Moise Cook - 16:44.5 - Eisenhower - 146.0
8 - 10 - Quentin Rickey - 16:36.5 - West Valley (Yakima) - 148.8
14 - 10 - Steven Dray - 16:38.2 - West Valley (Yakima) - 148.2
17 - 10 - Isaac Fillmore - 16:50.5 - West Valley (Yakima) - 143.9
22 - 10 - Kolbein Moore - 17:08.7 - West Valley (Yakima) - 137.5
23 - 10 - Tyler Ditto - 17:19.2 - West Valley (Yakima) - 133.8
36 - 12 - Eric Rodriguez - 17:49.8 - West Valley (Yakima) - 123.0
40 - 10 - Alec Espinoza - 18:06.9 - West Valley (Yakima) - 117.0
9 - 11 - Zachery Owens - 16:36.8 - Moses Lake - 148.7
11 - 10 - Joshua Cooper - 16:37.5 - Moses Lake - 148.5
12 - 12 - Zakary Bishop - 16:37.6 - Moses Lake - 148.5
27 - 10 - Brandon Wood - 17:28.2 - Moses Lake - 130.6
28 - 10 - Carl Hart - 17:28.4 - Moses Lake - 130.6
33 - 12 - Jayden Blackman - 17:43.3 - Moses Lake - 125.3
46 - 11 - Carlos Facio - 18:27.3 - Moses Lake - 109.8
Girls =
1 - 11 - Erica Simison - 18:29.3 - Eisenhower - 109.1
2 - 12 - Caroline McCarthy - 18:57.5 - Eisenhower - 99.2
3 - 10 - Dantzel Petersen - 19:11.5 - Eisenhower - 94.2
4 - 11 - Ada Naranjo - 19:31.8 - A.C. Davis - 87.1
5 - 9 - Carlie Gregg - 19:54.8 - Moses Lake - 79.0
6 - 11 - Dallas Borrego - 20:00.8 - Sunnyside - 76.9
7 - 11 - Grace Gerardi - 20:03.1 - A.C. Davis - 76.0
8 - 9 - Renelle Christensen - 20:10.7 - A.C. Davis - 73.4
9 - 10 - Lorena Zepeda - 20:13.2 - Eastmont - 72.5
10 - 12 - Aria Tornabene - 20:19.5 - Wenatchee - 70.3
11 - 12 - Jessica Mortensen - 20:24.4 - A.C. Davis - 68.5
12 - 10 - Dania Cox - 20:28.0 - West Valley (Yakima) - 67.3
13 - 9 - Alondra Martinez - 20:29.4 - A.C. Davis - 66.8
14 - 9 - Ashlyn Hill - 20:35.1 - Eastmont - 64.8
15 - 9 - Natalie Stephenson - 20:36.4 - Eisenhower - 64.3
1 - 11 - Erica Simison - 18:29.3 - Eisenhower - 109.1
2 - 12 - Caroline McCarthy - 18:57.5 - Eisenhower - 99.2
3 - 10 - Dantzel Petersen - 19:11.5 - Eisenhower - 94.2
15 - 9 - Natalie Stephenson - 20:36.4 - Eisenhower - 64.3
19 - 9 - Minelly Sereno - 20:48.7 - Eisenhower - 60.0
22 - 9 - Nayeli Barron - 20:59.2 - Eisenhower - 56.3
37 - 12 - Isabel Buenrostro - 22:07.9 - Eisenhower - 32.1
4 - 11 - Ada Naranjo - 19:31.8 - A.C. Davis - 87.1
7 - 11 - Grace Gerardi - 20:03.1 - A.C. Davis - 76.0
8 - 9 - Renelle Christensen - 20:10.7 - A.C. Davis - 73.4
11 - 12 - Jessica Mortensen - 20:24.4 - A.C. Davis - 68.5
13 - 9 - Alondra Martinez - 20:29.4 - A.C. Davis - 66.8
28 - 11 - Olivia Holmes - 21:32.9 - A.C. Davis - 44.4
36 - 11 - Amelia Pruiett - 22:00.0 - A.C. Davis - 34.8
10 - 12 - Aria Tornabene - 20:19.5 - Wenatchee - 70.3
17 - 10 - Sophia Reed - 20:46.8 - Wenatchee - 60.6
21 - 10 - Micaela Salgado - 20:55.2 - Wenatchee - 57.7
23 - 11 - Makenna Marcuson - 21:03.3 - Wenatchee - 54.8
27 - 10 - Sylvia Hwang - 21:31.8 - Wenatchee - 44.8
35 - 10 - Laura Dagg - 21:56.8 - Wenatchee - 36.0
43 - 12 - Autumn Reed - 23:05.6 - Wenatchee - 11.7
Rob I have some questions about your speed ratings and how you feel some teams are generally running ...
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, I quickly looked at the speed ratings from the 3A/4A boys state qualifying races this past meet and it appears that Central Valley had the highest speed rating of just under 171. Now I understand many teams were "jogging" the meets just to qualify (Bellarmine Prep especially) but I was trying to use my best judgement to ascertain which teams really gave a good effort and which ones didn't. First off a speed rating of 169-171 isn't all that great ... am I correct? CV at 170.86 and Ferris at 169.84 don't really impress me much (just compared to the high numbers coming from Firman and Missoula earlier in the season). And we can assume those two teams raced relatively hard in order to qualify to state and beat LC. We know Bell Prep didn't race hard. it does appear Tahoma and NC raced relatively hard ... if not all out perhaps. Any opinions on any of that?
Also I do think perhaps your speed ratings from the 4A Eastern Regional at Carmichael MS are low. Perhaps you can change my opinion. Take Ferris for example ... they improved 28.7 seconds per athlete from Richland Invite to Saturday yet their rating only increased .06 pts. CV improved 8.3 seconds and yet their speed ratings plummeted from 176.52 to 170.86 ( a decrease of 5.66 pts). LC improved their times 14.3 seconds for the 6 runners who ran both races but I couldn't compare speed ratings bc one athlete raced at one meet and not the other. Gabe Romney ran 15:22 Saturday and got a rating of 174.4, while Turlan Morlan ran a 15:22 at the invite and got 183.2 ... you can't tell me that the course ran that much different the two times. If anything the course was slower Saturday due to the rain and some fencing/construction which made the runners go longer and up the hill around a corner (which they did twice).
I'm just curious in part to how you do the speed ratings, to quench my curiosity bc if anything I would've thought the GSL schools' ratings would've gone up (not down or stayed the same by running PRs), and to shed some light as to who the favorites, contenders, and dark horses are for state this Saturday. I have my opinions, of course, and I guess in 5 days we will see which teams are ready for state and who is not.
Short answer: Ratings are derived purely from the statistics of how all the runners in the field have ran in the past (e.g., Runner A ran X at Race X and ran A at Race A, B at Race B, and C at Race C; meanwhile, Runner B ran etc. etc. etc.). If a race is rated too “low” it is because they (the field as a whole, not a specific group of runners within the field) were not running nearly as fast at other races (to make them seem that much “faster” of athletes in general, which would then make the field look that much stronger in comparison). The struggle against that is that teams are improving as the season goes on, and that is accounted for (I do this by removing the fastest-improving 25% of the field from the comparison). However, even that change only does so much (let’s stick with the Eastern Regional for this discussion: the rating is 200.0 = 14:10.26 using the method described above. If I didn’t take out the most improved 25%, the rating would be 200.0 = 14:08.67, or if I removed ANOTHER 25% after taking out the other 25% [or, in other words, about 44% of the field], the rating would still only be 200.0 = 14:14.10). It’s not getting anywhere near the 14:25 from the Richland Invite. The only way you get near that is if you only look at the SLOWEST 25% of the field (those are athletes that have worst performances at Race X, so not the ones you want to focus 100% of the comparison on). Another part of that is also an information bias problem: in this case, the GSL doesn't have a league meet while pretty much every other league does. That means that the GSL is missing a week's worth of results to factor into their ratings - not necessarily a bad thing, see the WESCO teams as an example (I think their ratings were low as well). The bigger issue is in regards to the lack of competition outside of themselves: Eastern Washington teams tend to be more isolated from other teams as compared to Western Washington teams. Less competition with athletes from other areas means you are constantly being compared (statistically) to yourselves in these ratings, while others get to compare their performances also against other individuals.
DeleteThis is the exact same process I use for all meets. You can already see the results of the process in Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming. Their ratings weren’t undervalued in the end, IMO. You will also see the results of that in Colorado (although I’m only posting the state meet ratings for CO rather than most of their season, just so I don’t have another dozen posts on top of what I’ve already posted the last couple weeks). It’s not a perfect process by any means, but it has always tended to do a pretty good job overall.
By the way, I’m interested in hearing if you think the ratings are too low when you consider what they mean in track terms. Let's compare the regional XC performances to last spring's regional track performances (keep in mind, there will be another 6 months of training/improving, as well as a greater focus on speed, so you would think that the XC marks would be slightly worse than in track, even with some athletes not running the 3200m).
Track - XC; Boys - Girls
9:28.32 - 9:25.14 - 11:04.83 - 10:47.06
9:28.57 - 9:33.19 - 11:07.79 - 10:48.17
9:28.84 - 9:34.32 - 11:09.12 - 11:26.25
9:31.51 - 9:41.23 - 11:16.18 - 11:29.24
9:33.17 - 9:43.18 - 11:27.56 - 11:33.23
9:37.94 - 9:44.37 - 11:33.74 - 11:36.41
9:44.67 - 9:46.42 - 11:37.44 - 11:39.04
9:47.53 - 9:47.53 - 11:40.90 - 11:39.44
9:51.28 - 9:48.09 - 11:41.83 - 11:41.31
9:51.76 - 9:48.42 - 11:44.01 - 11:42.92
Do they still look that unreasonable?
slight edit: Montana may well be undervalued again this year, but the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming/Colorado ratings all looked solid to me)
Deletenot sure I follow the times ... are you saying the top xc runner (Amir Ado) was the runner with the 9:25.12 in track and his speed rating time from Saturday would equal a 9:28.32? If I'm correct the 2nd runner from Saturday (Ryan Kline) ran a 9:33.19 in track and his Saturday speed rating would be 9:28.57??? Idk if I have it correct, however I see your point which I assume is that the xc to track numbers are very close. However as you pointed out almost all of those runners are running MUCH faster now (Ado and Kline would be top examples of that, they will both have breakout track seasons too I predict).
ReplyDeleteAlso I get that you have a formula and that your formula works more often than it does not. However what do you say to a runner such as Romney who runs 15:22 Saturday and just gets a rating of 174.4 while Morlan ran a 15:22 a few weeks earlier and ran a 15:22 and got a rating of 187.3? Also Romney saw his rating fall from 180.3 to 174.4 while he IMPROVED his time by 8 seconds in just 2 weeks and he did it on a TOUGHER course which was slightly LONGER and SLOWER because of all the rain?
No.
DeleteI'm saying that the winning XC performance (from Amir Ado) was equivalent to a 9:25.12, and the winning 3200m time (from Zak Kindl) at the Eastern Regional this spring was 9:28.32. Just trying to put the ratings in better perspective: this is what this rating means, and this is an example of how the actual Eastern Regional 3200m race turned out in track.
What would I say to a runner such as Romney or Morlan? Congrats on the race, you placed well, good luck next race! Times and ratings are just that (times and ratings). It's just a way to look at the performances. The point of the sport, which is what the kids should be focusing on, is how much they pushed themselves - and what they can do to push themselves even more next time!
You're response to Romney or Morlan sounds like a coaches response lol. And I agree! Athletes shouldn't be looking at speed ratings. Or rankings. Idk if they look at your speed ratings or tullyrunners but I do know they look at the various rankings. And when they feel slighted they either ignore it completely or run better with a chip on their shoulder. And that's fine.
ReplyDeleteI didn't mean literally what you would say to those two however. I should've phrased it differently. I guess I should've been more direct and asked what would you say to ANYONE who knows that the Eastern Regional 4A race was undervalued compared to Richland Invite? Would you say that you know that nut cannot manipulate the numbers? Or would you say that you dispute that it is undervalued? Or what? Again I will use CV as the clearest example ... plummeting from 176.52 to 170.86 on a slower course makes no sense. I am not emotionally concerned ... I simply ask to get a better understanding of speed ratings. You see, I have been a "follower" of your work for years and have used your ratings to help me analyze performances. I especially like to compare one year to other years at Sun Willows. I always assumed your ratings were EXTREMELY accurate (and they seemed to be so to my eye test). However seeing the glaring inaccuracy of Richland to Eastern WA I wonder how accurate it is. Perhaps you already explained it best when you said the Eastern WA qualifier is a small sample size of just 11 teams and those teams you have 1 less week of info for. If that's it, that's fine. However I felt that your Sunfair ratings were low and I feel that the Richland results proved me right. I feel I am right again. Your last post seemed to diminish the importance of your work when you said times and ratings are just that (times and ratings). However I feel that people read your (and tullyrunners) blog. I may be wrong but weren't you at sometime a NXN Ambassador who helped pick at large berths? Even if you weren't or aren't I do believe people at power (Nike) reads your blog (as with as tullyrunner). I know you have skeptics as well as strong followers, but for the most part I believe you are very well regarded. I don't think you should diminuish your work and how people look at it ... they typically give it some stock. I am just trying to help ... not for you to revise speed ratings that you may or may not think are correct. There must be some formula to "correct" the eastern WA speed ratings. Or maybe you think CV, Ferris, and LC aren't as good as I think.
I would argue that, although any ratings system is imperfect, the numbers come out just fine to put the Eastern Regional race where it is (meaning that it might or might not be slightly off, but it generally is valued in the right area). I'll use the 4A Top-50 individual projections list to compare the league/regional ratings vs. the Richland Invite ratings.
DeleteIn total, there were 33 athletes that ran at Richland and is projected to be among the Top 50 in 4A. The average difference between the Richland ratings and the League/Regional ratings was a whopping 1.39 seconds (League/Regional being FASTER, or in other words more highly rated). Breaking it down by team from most-improved to least-improved:
-Walla Walla has only 1 runner from Richland in the Top 50, and they are rated 43.26 seconds faster at their League/Regional race than Richland
-Hanford has 2 runners from Richland in the Top 50, and they are rated an average of 31.60 seconds faster at their League/Regional race than Richland
-University has only 1 runner, rated 16.83 seconds faster at their League/Regional race
-Joel Ferris has 4 runners, rated an average of 10.07 seconds faster at their League/Regional race
-Mead has 1 runner, rated 3.75 seconds faster
-Lewis & Clark has 4 runners, rated an average of 3.42 seconds faster
-Gonzaga Prep has 2 runners, rated an average of 3.26 seconds faster
-Central Valley has 4 runners, rated an average of 1.22 seconds SLOWER
-Richland has 3 runners, rated an average of 3.36 seconds slower
-Bellarmine Prep has 5 runners that ran at Richland, rated at 6.79 seconds slower (all from their League meet, as they cruised @ Regionals)
-Eisenhower has 4 runners that ran at Richland, rated an average of 10.64 seconds slower (3 of those were boys, and their boys cruised at CBBN)
-Henry Jackson has 2 runners, rated an average of 25.01 seconds slower
... Eisenhower's runners being rated slower at their League/Regional race makes sense (they didn't push it there, but were definitely pushed at Richland). Same story for Bellarmine (cruised Regionals, were pretty much solo at SPSL but were pushed at Richland). That leaves Jackson (a District I team) as the only team that seemingly ran worse at League/Regionals than at Richland. Everyone else was within 4 seconds of their races at Richland except Ferris and University, who both improved by 10+ seconds.
That seems reasonable to me. While you would think that the course at Richland was, if anything, faster than at Regionals if you look at specific individuals, the numbers don't bear that out. I wasn't there, but according to wunderground there wasn't much difference in terms of wind or rain leading up to the meet, and temperatures were a little better at the Regional race - upper 40s vs. mid 70s, so maybe the course ran faster than you thought, perhaps for other reasons (less crowded, better paced race, course changes might not have extended the length as much as you thought if any at all, etc.).
And don't get me wrong: I do think comparing ratings and times are important in some circumstances, such as selecting NXN At-Large teams. My point was that athletes and coaches (and parents) should be more concerned with the effort and racing savvy displayed by the athlete, rather than the time on the clock or the ratings as done by prognosticators outside of the situation.
Also, it just occured to me: you are quoting what was the initial, VERY rough estimates for Richland (that were made assuming the race ran identical to the '14 Eastern Regional race). Those weren't the final ratings, which were posted once I was able to use results from Athletic.net to fully analyze the performances.
DeleteThe updated Richland ratings can be found in the post titled "Richland WA Results - Oct. 8" and found here: https://watchoutxcrankings.blogspot.com/2016/10/richland-wa-results-oct-8.html
CV's average at Richland was 173.3, not 176.5. Their average at Eastern Regional was 170.9, with the difference between the two races mostly due to their #3 and #5 from Richland having bad days to finish as their #7 and #5 at the Eastern Regional.
You're correct, I never saw the updated Richland Invite speed ratings. That does help as it's much easier to understand a 2.4 drop as compared to a 5.6 drop!! However I still believe that there shouldn't have been a drop at all lol, but we can continue to agree to disagree. I am curious Rob, does the course length make a difference in speed ratings? I was under the belief that it didn't since you "grade on a curve" I guess you could phrase it to the runners' other races. But perhaps I am wrong. It's widely known that the Richland course gets altered slightly each race. Length, angle of the hill, etc. I jogged the course and my GPS said almost 5k. A friend of mine actually had it over a 5k. Usually it is posted at 3 miles, but on occasions it has been posted as a 5k. I know the 2014 Regionals it was "certified" as 5k by the race director. It was posted as 5k this year even though many coaches still believd it was 3 miles despite several gps watches having it as close to or over 5k.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the weather, Idk how much looking at wunderground helps. It only gives a snapshot of weather at that time. It doesn't tell how much the ground has or hasn't soaked up rain in the last week (and needless to say it doesn't tell how much water was used or not used by the sprinkler systems or the length of the grass, etc). Spokane made history by having the wettest month in it's history in October! needless to say Spokane and Richalnd have very different weather conditions however I think it's fair to say it was raining a lot in Richland all week leading up to and including race day.
Like I said, in some ways it is easier now to digest that you downgraded CV to a 173.3 at the Richland Invite. In other ways it is not since North Central was over 180 at Firman. NC is a better team generally but I don't think there is that much difference between the two.
I appreciate you taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate you posting the different numbers that you think helps you make your argument. It is my opinion that the bottom 3 teams at the 4A Eastern Regional and there numbers have ANY bearing to the top 3 since they are so far apart in competitiveness. That's why I always used the top 3 in my comparisons. And compared similar quality athletes. I do appreciate the numbers though and appreciate that you work with what you have (only 11 teams and very spread out in competitiveness).
I look forward to state on Saturday and hopefully seeing some sort of a preview from you as I respect your opinion. very interested to hear your opinion on how NC, CV, Bell Prep, and Tahoma stack up in comparison to each other (yes I know they are in different classifications and there are other teams VERY close to their quality if not better, but imo those are the top 4 when running at or near to their abilities).
Course length doesn't matter: that is reflected in the times, and the times ran are what determines the speed of the races being compared.
DeleteWeather: Agreed that wunderground doesn't perfectly describe the situation, but my point was that what makes a race run fast/slow isn't solely determined by what people *think* the course will do because of how the course is laid out. Wunderground's snapshots do give a rough idea of the temperatures in the area (which should be close to what it is at the course), as well as the sum of precipitation during the week (which doesn't account for things like sprinklers or dew or anything like that, as you mention). According to wunderground, it had rained about 0.21 inches in the week leading up to the Eastern Regional without any day raining more than 0.08 inches and no rain at all on Friday (which doesn't strike me as very much at all, but then again I suppose it really depends on how well the grass in that area drains and how boggy it can get), and while I don't think temperatures in the mid 70s effect runners all that much it was just another example of how the race shouldn't necessarily be any slower at the Regional meet (if anything, that weather snapshot suggests that it would be faster at the Regional race, although for example wind can play a bigger factor and that is something a snapshot doesn't really describe).
My point about weather and course distance (and race density and pacing) was just to give possible explanations as to why the Regional race seemed to run faster. I agree that the slowest athletes/teams don't have much if any bearing on how the fastest athletes/teams race, but understand that the ratings describe the field as a whole - not just the fastest or slowest on the course. Some of the athletes from CV ran faster at Regionals, some ran faster at Richland - even given the ratings, which had Regionals running notably faster than Richland, athletes improved nearly across the board.
I probably won't do any more significant of a preview than the projections I posted. Between NC, CV, BP and Tahoma:
At their best, North Central is definitely still the top team in the state IMO, and they showed that pretty clearly with what they did at Bob Firman (and they also throttled CV at their GSL meet, and weren't far behind CV at Richland without their #1 and worse days from most of the rest of their team). However, the big question for NC is just how healthy they are and whether their #2-4 pack can do what it did at Bob Firman - they won't need that to end up the top Washington team, but will if they want to qualify for NXN Nationals in a couple weeks.
Between the three 4A teams: I would give the edge to BP, with CV clearly above Tahoma.
#1s: Cameron Wyman is the top ace, with Tahoma's Besst probably ahead of Kline.
#2s: Close between CV and BP, but I would give the edge to CV.
#3s: I think BP is the clear winner here.
#4s: Close between all three, but would give BP a slight edge
#5s: Very close between BP and CV, I would say that's a toss-up. This is Tahoma's weakness.
#6s: Central Valley is the clear winner if it comes down to that.
I agree with your assessment of the top 4 for the most part. Do you think any other teams belong with those 4? Kamiakin, Jackson, Eisenhower, Ferris?
ReplyDeleteI think NC, BP and CV are the top three teams. Beyond those, it gets more difficult, but yes I'd say there are several teams that could potentially be on par with or ahead of Tahoma: Ferris, Eisenhower, Glacier Peak, Henry Jackson, Camas, Kamiakin, and Lewis & Clark are on that level IMO. Hopefully all 11 of those teams make the trip to Boise in a couple of weeks.
DeleteOh, and possibly Skyline and Issaquah as well. I haven't really looked all too closely, and there might be even more teams that are in there. Some of those teams will separate themselves at the state meet, but looking at their seasons, all of those teams belong in the conversation.
DeleteAnd Lake Stevens. Forgot about them. If you couldn't tell, there are lots of teams that I think are in the mix beyond those first three... Washington is always a pretty deep state, and I don't think this year is any different in that regard.
Delete