Monday, October 31, 2016

Washington/Oregon State Qualifiers analysis

Some of you might be wondering why I bothered to include the top non-qualifiers from each race that I rated this weekend. There are a couple of reasons, but the primary one was that it allowed me to show how competitive the top non-qualifiers were. In order to further that idea, here is a chart looking at the caliber of a performance the top non-qualifier from each race had. This is one way of looking at how tough it is to qualify for state. Included is both the race rating as well as the 3200m track equivalent.

Note: boys are listed on the left column, girls on the right.

Ratings - Race - 3200m equivalents

Top Non-Qualifying Individual:

157.7 -   98.2 - WA 4A District I          - 10:13.07 - 11:59.64
163.2 - 103.6 - WA 4A District II         - 10:03.22 - 11:49.97
148.7 -   81.9 - WA 4A District III/IV   - 10:29.19 - 12:28.83
147.9 -   64.3 - WA 4A District VI        - 10:30.63 - 13:00.36
168.1 - 101.2 - WA 4A District V/VIII  -   9:54.45 - 11:54.27

153.4 -   81.0 - WA 3A District I         - 10:20.77 - 12:30.45
153.8 -   90.4 - WA 3A District II/V+   - 10:20.06 - 12:13.61
143.7 -   75.4 - WA 3A District III/IV   - 10:38.15 - 12:40.48

148.6 -   81.5 - WA 2A District I/II      - 10:29.37 - 12:29.55
124.4 -   33.0 - WA 2A District III        - 11:12.71 - 13:56.42
143.6 -   59.2 - WA 2A District IV        - 10:38.33 - 13:09.49
145.1 -   64.6 - WA 2A District V+       - 10:35.64 - 12:59.82

134.1 -   51.7 - WA 1A District I/II     - 10:55.34 - 13:22.92
124.1 -   55.3 - WA 1A District III       - 11:13.25 - 13:16.48
119.9 -   10.4 - WA 1A District IV       - 11:20.77 - 14:36.89
(1A District V, VI and VII meets were not rated)


  81.9 -   N/A -  WA B District I-III      - 12:28.83 - N/A
(B District IV, V/VI and VII/IX meets were not rated)


Top Non-Qualifying Team's Average:

163.7 -   99.5 - WA 4A District I          - 10:02.33 - 11:57.31
162.3 -   92.2 - WA 4A District II         - 10:04.83 - 12:10.39
148.1 -   80.6 - WA 4A District III/IV   - 10:30.27 - 12:31.16
141.4 -   57.6 - WA 4A District VI        - 10:42.27 - 13:12.36
166.5 - 101.2 - WA 4A District V/VIII   -  9:57.31 - 11:54.27

151.1 -   82.5 - WA 3A District I          - 10:24.89 - 12:27.76
154.3 -   96.2 - WA 3A District II/V+   - 10:19.16 - 12:03.22
139.8 -   63.4 - WA 3A District III/IV   - 10:45.13 - 13:01.97

149.5 -   87.3 - WA 2A District I/II     - 10:27.76 - 12:19.16
125.0 -   38.5 - WA 2A District III       - 11:11.64 - 13:46.56
143.6 -   58.1 - WA 2A District IV       - 10:38.33 - 13:11.46
138.6 -   66.1 - WA 2A District V+      - 10:47.28 - 12:57.13

136.1 -   49.6 - WA 1A District I/II     - 10:51.76 - 13:26.68
125.8 -   39.1 - WA 1A District III       - 11:10.21 - 13:45.49
115.5 -     1.4 - WA 1A District IV       - 11:28.65 - 14:53.01
(1A District V, VI and VII meets were not rated)

  88.4 -   N/A -  WA B District I-III      - 12:17.19 - N/A
(B District IV, V/VI and VII/IX meets were not rated)




EDIT: And here is Oregon's analysis, using 3k equivalents rather than 3200m


Ratings - District - 3k equivalents - (3200m equivalents)

Top Non-Qualifying Individual:

161.6   93.9 6A-1 OR   9:24.54 11:17.48 (10:06.09 12:07.34)
157.6 112.2 6A-2 OR   9:31.21 10:46.95 (10:13.25 11:34.57)
153.6   85.5 6A-3 OR 9:37.88 11:31.49 (10:20.42 12:22.39)
156.8 101.4 6A-4 OR   9:32.55 11:04.97 (10:14.68 11:53.91)
150.1   93.1 6A-5 OR   9:43.72 11:18.81 (10:26.68 12:08.77)
159.9   94.4 6A-6 OR   9:27.37 11:16.64 (10:09.13 12:06.45)

142.0   77.0 5A-1 OR   9:57.24 11:45.67 (10:41.19 12:37.61)
149.7   84.9 5A-2 OR   9:44.39 11:32.49 (10:27.40 12:23.46)
164.9   82.9 5A-3 OR   9:19.03 11:35.83 (10:00.18 12:27.04)
155.0   97.2 5A-4 OR   9:35.55 11:11.97 (10:17.91 12:01.43)
149.4   70.2 5A-5 OR   9:44.89 11:57.02 (10:27.94 12:49.79)

160.2   72.6 4A-1 OR   9:26.87 11:53.01 (10:08.60 12:45.49)
137.8   32.8 4A-2 OR 10:04.24 12:59.41 (10:48.71 13:56.77)
142.9   75.6 4A-3 OR   9:55.73 11:48.01 (10:39.58 12:40.12)
137.9   57.3 4A-4 OR 10:04.08 12:18.54 (10:48.54 13:12.89)
145.2 62.8 4A-5 OR   9:51.90 12:09.36 (10:35.46 13:03.04)
141.2   57.9 4A-6 OR   9:58.57 12:17.54 (10:42.63 13:11.82)



Top Non-Qualifying Team's Average:

151.0   84.5 6A-1 OR 9:42.22 11:33.16 (10:25.07 12:24.18)
149.7   87.4 6A-2 OR 9:44.39 11:28.32 (10:27.40 12:18.98)
142.5   70.0 6A-3 OR 9:56.40 11:57.35 (10:40.30 12:50.15)
155.5   89.0 6A-4 OR 9:34.71 11:25.65 (10:17.01 12:16.12)
143.3   80.2 6A-5 OR   9:55.07 11:40.33 (10:38.86 12:31.88)
154.7   84.8 6A-6 OR   9:36.05 11:32.66 (10:18.45 12:23.64)

127.3   42.2 5A-1 OR 10:21.76 12:43.73 (11:07.52 13:39.94)
136.0   48.8 5A-2 OR 10:07.25 12:32.72 (10:51.94 13:28.12)
147.2 61.4 5A-3 OR   9:48.56 12:11.70 (10:31.88 13:05.55)
146.2 75.1 5A-4 OR   9:50.23 11:48.84 (10:33.67 12:41.01)
133.7   54.8 5A-5 OR 10:11.08 12:22.71 (10:56.06 13:17.37)

142.1   27.2 4A-1 OR   9:57.07 13:08.75 (10:41.01 14:06.80)
125.3   23.6 4A-2 OR 10:25.10 13:14.76 (11:11.10 14:13.25)
135.5   54.7 4A-3 OR 10:08.08 12:22.87 (10:52.83 13:17.55)
134.5   35.8 4A-4 OR 10:09.75 12:54.40 (10:54.63 13:51.40)
137.5   24.0 4A-5 OR 10:04.74 13:14.09 (10:49.25 14:12.54)
128.0   17.8 4A-6 OR 10:20.59 13:24.43 (11:06.27 14:23.64)



EDIT2: With all the posts of the last few days, results are going to older pages more quickly than usual... so here are some links to all of the results over the last few days.

Washington State Qualifiers: 4A - 3A - 2A
Washington League Meets: Northwest WA Leagues - Southwest WA Leagues - Eastern WA Leagues
Oregon State Qualifiers: 6A - 5A - 4A
Idaho Results: State Meet - District Meets
Montana/Wyoming Results: WY State Meet - Other WY Meets - MT State Meet
Utah Results: Boys State - Girls State - 4A Regional - 5A Regional - State All-Time List

NW Results from the weekend of Oct. 15: George Fox OR - Portland Meadows OR - Max King OR
NW Results from the weekend of Oct. 8: Helena 7-on-7 MT - Bob Conley ID - Gib Floyd ID - Ash Creek II OR - Flat and Fast OR - Richland WA - Hole in the Wall WA
Previous Results: Butte MT - Park City UT - Cedar UT
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7 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 1, 2016 at 11:25 AM

    This was cool to look at. Thanks for doing it. It's my opinion that is SHOULD be difficult to qualify for state however. Even the most difficult region to qualify from (4A Eastern Washington) a 9:54 3200 runner would never qualify for state for track so why should they get a pass in xc??? I'm not speaking to you Rob, just anybody who feels sad for individuals who didn't qualify in general. Just my two cents, didn't qualify? Train harder! That said, it's no secret that the different districts are hot balanced. It is difficult to see all of the marginal teams qualify from the 4A Southwest while a good team like Lewis and Clark couldn't qualify from the 4A Eastern.

    Rob, are you planning on posting another Northwest Rankings of all the potential NW NXN teams like you did in early October? Or a WA State preview? If you don't plan on doing either could you at least consider posting the top 8 3A/4A boys teams in WA up to this point based upon your speed ratings? Thanks!

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    1. watchoutNovember 1, 2016 at 2:56 PM

      XC is certainly MUCH easier to qualify in than track, especially now that it is a factor of 7 rather than 5 (up to 112 can qualify as individuals now, compared to the 80 in previous years and the 16 in track). I don't have a problem with it, as long as there is enough room on the course for all the runners to fit. Of course, maybe it would have been better to add extra teams rather than individuals, seeing as XC is the more team-oriented running season :) I haven't looked at the number of entries at the state meet yet and how the extra runners totaled, but I would imagine using, say, 22-24 teams and a factor of 3 for individuals which result in a similar sized field. Plus, there is an increased chance (at least in bigger qualifying meets) of a team qualifying 5 runners and getting scored at state while not being able to bring along their #6 and #7 runners, which would be a shame IMO. Also, with adding extra teams rather than individuals, there is a much smaller chance that the fields/course will become more crowded (team qualifiers are going to be spread out more than individual qualifiers).

      I will probably post some sort of a WA State preview and OR State preview. Probably waiting on NW Rankings until after state, and only use the state meets for that (I haven't been keeping any up to date full breakdown of season-long performances for all varsity runners on all NW teams like I usually do).

      Delete
    2. watchoutNovember 1, 2016 at 5:20 PM

      BTW, just did a quick look at the 4A situation... if they sent 22 teams with an individual factor of 3 rather than 16 and 7, there would be 170 athletes in both fields as opposed to the 161 and 162 that qualified in the new system (and 145 for both sides with the old format).

      Teams that would have been added to the field:
      Eastern Regional #3 & 4 teams (boys: Lewis & Clark and Richland; girls: Mead and Hanford)
      Southwest Regional #9 & 10 teams (boys: Union and South Kitsap; girls: Puyallup and Thomas Jefferson)
      District I #3 teams (Lake Stevens on both sides)
      District II #3 teams (Mount Si boys, Eastlake girls)

      Some of those teams, obviously, wouldn't be all that competitive... but some might contend for a Top 8-10 finish. Meanwhile, you are only eliminating individuals that wouldn't finish in the top 50. It wouldn't make a huge difference in terms of field density (the most projected to finish within 10 seconds would be 21 boys and 19 girls in the new format, 20 boys and 18 girls in the larger team field, vs. 18 and 13 in the old "factor of 5" format)

      Delete
  2. AnonymousNovember 1, 2016 at 6:40 PM

    Ya IDK what to think about having 22 teams, there are already a bunch of non-competitive teams. But imo there needs to be a way to get more teams from the competitive districts (such as the Spokane schools).

    I researched how many extra runners will be there in the 4A Boys field this year with the new factor of 7 ... it's 17 (34 with the old factor of 34, so 51 total individuals in the boys 4A race this year). Those individuals will go into 10 starting boxes, therefore cramming 26 boxes at the starting line this year! It will be dicey, since starts have been dicey for a while. The double-start format they instituted last year should help ... but 17 more athletes is tough!

    I know one coach who would like to see a separate individual race from the team race. That would definitely help thin the start line situation however I'm a bit of a traditionalist and I like to see the top individuals race the top team studs.

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    Replies
    1. watchoutNovember 1, 2016 at 11:24 PM

      Separate teams from individuals? Please no.
      Starting boxes: I don't remember how much they spread out the individuals, but I wouldn't imagine there would be many more boxes for an additional ~10 athletes compared to what they will have this year?
      My comment regarding adding teams was because if they are going to add any runners to the field, it might as well be more teams rather than more individuals. The individuals already proved that they can't place that well in their own district/region (if a meet qualified 2 teams, that means they weren't finishing inside the top 10). However, there are some potential Top 10 teams that sometimes get left at home, and since XC is supposed to be more of the team sport version of the distance running community, why not support that idea and make it more even for teams? The Boys 4A race is a perfect example of this: would you be improving the state field more if you add the #3 team from the Eastern Regional (Lewis & Clark), or the #11-14 runners from the Eastern Regional (runners who shouldn't end up on the podium with similar performances)? The top 2 teams from the Eastern Regional should finish in the top 5 at state, and the third team wasn't far behind and would probably be very competitive for the Top 10. Seems like adding Lewis & Clark (and a small handful of other teams) would add more to the field than would runners who weren't finishing in the Top 10 at their regional meets.
      As for the new teams not being competitive, that's more an issue of the current regional format - some regions are already sending weak teams, and that won't change unless those leagues are racing against better leagues for their chance to get to state. 4A provides the perfect example of this:
      What would happen if the NPSL (all King County schools) competed in District 2, and District 1 combined with District 2 for state qualifying? And what if the CBBN rejoined the Eastern Regional?

      Here's ROUGHLY what would have happened, even with expanding the field to 22 teams:

      ALL of the current qualifiers outside of West Valley-Yakima would make it in.
      The teams that would be added?
      WESCO #3 Lake Stevens gets in, KingCo #3/4 Mount Si & Woodinville (or Eastlake) gets in
      no additional NPSL, SPSL or GSHL teams qualify
      GSL #3/4 Lewis & Clark and Gonzaga Prep gets in
      MCC #1 Richland gets in
      with GSL #5/6 University & Mead failing to qualify, but finishing WELL ahead of CBBN #2 West Valley-Yakima.

      That would make the state meet FAR better: Lake Stevens and Lewis & Clark are potential 4A Top 10 squads that are on the outside looking in. Wouldn't it be great to include them, instead of the #41-56 individuals from District III/IV (for example)?

      Same story on the girls side:
      All actual qualifiers would still qualify except for CBBN #2 AC Davis
      WESCO #3-5 Lake Stevens, Monroe and Henry Jackson would qualify
      KingCo #3/4 Eastlake & Skyline would qualify
      no new qualifiers from the NPSL, SPSL or GSHL
      GSL #3/4 Mead & Gonzaga Prep would qualify
      MCC #1 Hanford would qualify

      Re: more near-Top 10 squads added, rather than the #41-56 individuals from the Southwest.

      The new teams added wouldn't drag down the quality of the field - they would improve it. Not as much as the singular individuals, perhaps, but it would add much more value to the team race than those additional individuals add to the individual race.

      Delete
  3. AnonymousNovember 2, 2016 at 1:57 PM

    I do like this scenario you described above. It will never happen however lol. Not until (unless) the WIAA asks it's coaches how they can make the sport better and the cookie cutter way isn't ideal and they realize that xc doesn't have to qualify the same way basketball does or football or tennis, etc.

    FYI the coach I said who would like to see individuals and teams race in separate races always sends teams to state and not individuals. So his perspective is that individuals simply get in the way of the team race. I understand his thinking, but personally enjoyed watching Tanner Anderson race John Dressel the year Mt. Spokane didn't qualify a team and we wouldn't have gotten that with separate races.

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    Replies
    1. watchoutNovember 2, 2016 at 4:47 PM

      Yeah, I don't see why XC shouldn't continue to be a hybrid sport (including both an individual and team component). It's great the way it is in that regard.

      BTW, roughly the same results would occur if you just did realignment of how State Qualifiers work and don't add the extra 6 teams. I just think it's better to add more teams rather than more individuals when there was the potential for up to 80 individuals vs. 16 teams already. Up to 22 teams and 66 individuals seemed more balanced to me than does 16 teams and 112 individuals.

      For fun, I looked at state projections using all three qualifying formats (16 teams with districts as-is, 16 teams with realignment and three regional meets, 22 teams with realignment and three regional meets). Used only State Qualifying Meet performances except for Bellarmine Prep (used their SPSL race, since they just cruised at the SW Regional). Here was the results for the 4A Top 16:

      Current Format 4A Boys:

      67 Central Valley
      87 Joel Ferris
      100 Glacier Peak
      134 Henry Jackson
      159 Camas
      166 Skyline
      188 Issaquah
      193 Eisenhower (not pushed @ CBBN)
      209 Tahoma
      229 Bellarmine Prep
      319 Curtis
      332 Kentridge
      333 Skyview
      337 Emerald Ridge
      355 Auburn Riverside
      445 West Valley (Yakima)

      Re-aligned 4A Boys:

      74 Bellarmine Prep
      109 Central Valley
      130 Joel Ferris
      150 Lewis and Clark**
      154 Glacier Peak
      184 Henry Jackson
      196 Lake Stevens**
      197 Camas
      237 Skyline
      251 Issaquah
      254 Richland**
      257 Eisenhower (not pushed @ CBBN)
      264 Mt Si**
      270 Tahoma
      330 Inglemoor**
      401 Emerald Ridge

      Expanded Field 4A Boys:

      86 Bellarmine Prep
      124 Central Valley
      150 Joel Ferris
      175 Lewis and Clark**
      177 Glacier Peak
      212 Henry Jackson
      227 Lake Stevens**
      231 Camas
      273 Skyline
      292 Issaquah
      301 Eisenhower
      305 Richland**
      307 Mt Si**
      307 Gonzaga Prep**
      314 Tahoma
      387 Inglemoor**
      Also: 444 Woodinville**, 454 Curtis, 472 Kentridge, 481 Emerald Ridge, 482 Skyview, 504 Auburn Riverside


      Current Format 4A Girls:

      86 Issaquah
      105 Camas
      119 Central Valley
      132 Glacier Peak
      136 Lewis and Clark
      182 Mt Si
      185 Kamiak
      213 Tahoma
      216 Hazen
      238 Skyview
      240 Bellarmine Prep
      289 South Kitsap
      293 Eisenhower
      302 Curtis
      311 Union
      414 A.C. Davis


      Re-aligned 4A Girls:

      99 Issaquah
      122 Camas
      140 Central Valley
      152 Lewis and Clark
      156 Glacier Peak
      191 Mead**
      208 Mt Si
      209 Kamiak
      237 Tahoma
      239 Hazen
      243 Lake Stevens**
      257 Skyview
      271 Eastlake**
      272 Bellarmine Prep
      292 Hanford**
      310 Eisenhower


      Expanded Field 4A Girls:

      106 Issaquah
      136 Camas
      153 Central Valley
      168 Glacier Peak
      173 Lewis and Clark
      216 Mead**
      239 Mt Si
      243 Kamiak
      275 Tahoma
      279 Hazen
      285 Lake Stevens**
      312 Skyview
      316 Bellarmine Prep
      326 Eastlake**
      345 Hanford**
      382 South Kitsap
      Also: 394 Eisenhower, 405 Skyline**, 407 Curtis, 419 Monroe**, 469 Henry Jackson**, 470 Gonzaga Prep**

      Delete

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