Utah boys: Best in the US once again?

Seems like this is being said every year the last few years, but WOW is that state good this year.


American Fork UT: In my very quick and questionable look at a race involving them this year, I looked at the Viking Invitational (because it was a rare match-up with an out of state power, Dana Hills CA). Everyone knows that AF's top trio this year is insane, but just how good are they? Let's take a step back for a moment.

Casey Clinger is the defending NXN Champion, and likely the top runner in the nation this year. This spring, he won the Arcadia 3200m race (8:50.70) and is the top returner from the Brooks PR 2 mile (8:51.68) where he finished third.

Another of their trio, McKay Johns, was injured for most of last year's XC season after finishing 42nd at NXN as a sophomore. In his short season, he ran 3 races where he significantly improved each time out: #32 at the state meet, #19 at NXN-Southwest and then #31 at NXN Nationals (#10 returner). This spring, he ran a 4:10.37 at the Arcadia mile, good for third place and was the #2 non-senior behind teammate Patrick Parker (4:09.87). He was second to now-graduated Brody Smith (Cody WY, NXN#12 last fall) in the Great Southwest Mile (4:10.70-4:11.20 at altitude). At the Utah State meet, Johns was third in the 1600m (4:12.72) behind Casey Clinger (4:07.52) and now-graduated Logan MacKay of Davis (4:10.65). In the State 3200m race, Johns was second once again to teammate Casey Clinger (9:08.48 to 9:13.41). As he never ran a 3200m at sea-level, it's hard to fairly compare his races at that distance, but his 9:05.52 PR at BYU is probably worth a sub-9 (NCAA adjustments would put it at 8:53.51). Eerily similar story to another recent young prodigy: Kai Wilmot of North Central WA, who along with American Fork have been the top 2 distance programs in the US since 2007, dealt with injury problems throughout his junior and senior seasons before pulling out an inspirational win at NXN in 2012 with standout teammate Tanner Anderson 9 seconds back in third. Could American Fork and McKay Johns duplicate that part of the story and go from injured to NXN Champion with a teammate close behind?

Which brings us to the third part of the AF trio, Patrick Parker. Parker finished top-50 at NXN last fall, and showed even more improvement this spring as he finished seventh at the Adidas Dream Mile (4:06.72) behind six graduated seniors. He ran a PR of 9:04.51 to finish a close second to teammate Casey Clinger at the BYU Invitational (9:02.58 to 9:04.51), which is again hard to compare easily because it is at altitude but NCAA conversions would put it at 8:52.52.

So, American Fork has 3 guys who might be all sub-8:55 guys coming into the year? That's some good front running, but what is their depth like? Their #4 and #5 runners in the 3200m this spring were both freshman: Carson Clinger (10:05.41) and Dalton Brems (10:07.73), both of which would probably be in the 9:50's at sea level. In XC so far, they have been staying around 75 seconds behind their trio... which is GREAT for potential NXN Top-5 finishing individuals.

US#1? Yeah, I'd say so. Without further ado, the estimated ratings at the aforementioned Viking Invitational (200.0 ~ 14:50.79):

1 - 12 - Casey Clinger - 14:43.0 - American Fork UT - 202.6
2 - 12 - McKay Johns - 14:45.0 - American Fork UT - 201.9
3 - 12 - Patrick Parker - 14:48.0 - American Fork UT - 200.9
4 - 12 - Zachary Ericksen - 15:26.0 - Lone Peak UT - 188.1
5 - 12 - Seth Freckleton - 15:34.0 - Lone Peak UT - 185.4
6 - 11 - Justin Hartshorn - 15:50.0 - Lone Peak UT - 180.1
7 - 11 - Jack Landgraf - 15:53.0 - Dana Hills CA - 179.0
8 - 10 - Carson Clinger - 15:59.0 - American Fork UT - 177.0
9 - 10 - Dalton Brems - 16:01.0 - American Fork UT - 176.4
10 - 11 - Josh Ericksen - 16:08.0 - Lone Peak UT - 174.0

That is seriously fast. It may also be overrated by a couple points, but it seems like a good fit (Stansbury close to their Bob Firman races - actually, a slightly lower; girls individuals look about right, the other boys teams look about right). You would think it is going to be hard to unseat American Fork from the top spot if they run like that all year, as that is likely to be 3 runners inside the Top 5-10 overall at NXN with their #4 and #5 placing somewhere near the 60s. Also, fun fact: if they run like that, there is no team that could possibly win in a dual meet (going 1-2-3 is an automatic win in dual meet scoring even if the other team put all 7 runners infront of their #4).

Utah isn't only the story of American Fork, however. And it's not even certain that they are the best.

Davis ran one of the fastest times ever at Eagle Island when they won the Bob Firman Invitational last weekend (North Central WA ran 78:58.3 in 2012 before their #1 Kai Wilmot got injured, Gig Harbor WA ran 79:08.3 in 2013, while Davis ran 79:15.6 last weekend). That is a course tested by multiple NXN Champion squads and some of the best teams in history, and Davis was right up there with their time.

Their ratings from that race:

 9 - 12 - Josh Peters - 15:37.5 - Davis (UT) - 191.1
13 - 12 - Matt Ward - 15:45.2 - Davis (UT) - 188.6
16 - 12 - Jacob Vaughn - 15:47.5 - Davis (UT) - 187.9
24 - 11 - Seth Stromberg - 16:01.0 - Davis (UT) - 183.4
 2 - 12 - Devin Jaster - 16:04.4 - Davis (UT) - 182.3 (JV)
34 - 12 - Brigham Halverson - 16:15.0 - Davis (UT) - 178.8
 7 - 11 - Conner Jones - 16:21.9 - Davis (UT) - 176.5 (JV)

Also in the race were a few other very strong teams and individuals, the teams would likely be among the favorites to finish Top-5 at NXR if they weren't in the ridiculously loaded Southwest regional (Ogden was third and Springville fourth behind Davis and perennial power North Central WA):


1 - 12 - Talon Hull - 15:25.0 - Weber UT - 195.3
2 - 12 - Garrett Barton - 15:28.8 - Ogden UT - 194.0
3 - 12 - Travis Feeny - 15:29.3 - Ogden UT - 193.8
4 - 10 - Grant Gardner - 15:29.7 - Springville UT - 193.7
5 - 11 - Andy Monroe - 15:33.1 - Crater OR - 192.6 (NXN-NW #3 last fall and #20 returner from NXN)


2 - 12 - Garrett Barton - 15:28.8 - Ogden - 194.0
3 - 12 - Travis Feeny - 15:29.3 - Ogden - 193.8
27 - 11 - Christian Warren - 16:08.8 - Ogden - 180.8
75 - 12 - Max Jones - 16:43.5 - Ogden - 169.4
87 - 11 - Ben Keller - 16:49.6 - Ogden - 167.4
103 - 11 - Andrew Blackham - 17:00.0 - Ogden - 164.0
122 - 11 - Alejandro Torres - 17:17.2 - Ogden - 158.3

4 - 10 - Grant Gardner - 15:29.7 - Springville - 193.7
17 - 11 - Brandon Garnica - 15:47.8 - Springville - 187.8
21 - 12 - Haden Penrod - 15:55.8 - Springville - 185.1
79 - 11 - Caleb Garnica - 16:45.8 - Springville - 168.6
81 - 10 - Carter Paxton - 16:46.9 - Springville - 168.3
83 - 12 - Paul Young - 16:47.6 - Springville - 168.1
89 - 10 - Adam Kreiger - 16:50.9 - Springville - 167.0

That same weekend, Timpanogos won the Nike Portland invitational, led by the individual champion who won a duel over a highly ranked runner from Washington (Tibebu Proctor 14:56.0). Their ratings:

 1 - 12 - Joe Benson - 14:54.2 - Timpanogos - 198.0
14 - 11 - Brennan Benson - 15:41.4 - Timpanogos - 182.0
20 - 11 - Ben Berlin - 15:50.1 - Timpanogos - 179.1
23 - 11 - Spencer Robinson - 15:56.9 - Timpanogos - 176.8
33 - 11 - Anthony Ortiz - 16:06.2 - Timpanogos - 173.7
50 - 12 - JT Gardner - 16:24.3 - Timpanogos - 167.5
61 - 11 - Kolten Bramall - 16:31.2 - Timpanogos - 165.2

Oh, and then there was Desert Hills at Woodbridge: 

4 - 12 - Jaiden Melendrez - 14:13.0 - Desert Hills - 192.1
49 - 12 - Spencer Ford - 15:00.6 - Desert Hills - 174.9
54 - 11 - Bryson King - 15:04.9 - Desert Hills - 173.3
96 - 12 - Joshua Gibb - 15:29.7 - Desert Hills - 164.4
114 - 11 - Ethan Ashby - 15:36.3 - Desert Hills - 162.0
15 - 12 - Matt Allred - 15:45.5 - Desert Hills - 158.7
143 - 11 - Tyler Phillips - 15:47.5 - Desert Hills - 158.0

As a freebie, here is a scoring merge of the top 16 SW teams from those meets:

1.  83 Davis UT - Bob Firman ID #1
2.  91 American Fork UT - Viking UT #1
3. 158 Timpanogos UT - Nike Portland OR #1
4. 165 Mountain Vista CO - Woodbridge CA #1
5. 166 Lone Peak UT - Viking UT #2
6. 175 Ogden UT - Bob Firman ID #3
7. 175 Springville UT - Bob Firman ID #4
8. 177 Palmer Ridge CO - Woodbridge CA #2
9. 262 Pine View UT - Bob Firman ID #8
10. 265 Desert Vista AZ - Woodbridge CA #4
11. 272 Skyridge UT - Bob Firman ID #13 w/ #3 making season debut in the D1 race
12. 273 Spanish Fork UT - Bob Firman ID #9
13. 280 Desert Hills UT - Woodbridge CA #7
14. 285 Orem UT - Bob Firman ID #11
15. 301 Riverton UT - Bob Firman ID #14
16. 317 Stansbury UT - Bob Firman ID D1 #2 (the ever-impressive JV squad of Davis was #1)

(Silver Creek CO, Rock Canyon CO and Albuquerque Academy NM would all be among this group as well based on Liberty Bell CO, and I'm sure there are a half dozen others from around the region from other meets, but all 16 of those teams above most certainly belong in the very deep NXN Southwest field)

Also, a look at the top teams from all regions from the notable meets I've taken a look at recently (Bob Firman ID, Woodbridge CA, Mountain West MT, Roy Griak MN, Nike Portland OR, Viking UT):

1.  86 Davis UT - Bob Firman ID #1
2.  95 American Fork UT - Viking UT #1
3. 164 North Central WA - Bob Firman ID #2
4. 168 Timpanogos UT - Nike Portland OR #1
5. 181 Mountain Vista CO - Woodbridge CA #1
6. 184 Lone Peak UT - Viking UT #2
7. 188 Palmer Ridge CO - Woodbridge CA #2
8. 192 Ogden UT - Bob Firman ID #3
9. 194 Springville UT - Bob Firman ID #4
10. 221 Bozeman MT - Mountain West MT #1
11. 226 Crater OR - Bob Firman ID #5
12. 227 Wayzata MN - Roy Griak MN #1
13. 232 Skyline ID - Bob Firman ID #6
14. 235 Great Oak CA - Woodbridge CA #3

It's too bad I haven't gotten a good look at The Woodlands TX or Brentwood TN yet, as I think they are probably US#3/4 right now.

Utah is entering their championship season schedule next week, with their state championship on October 19. It will be interesting to see how the teams and individuals do there, as well as NXN Southwest (and, likely, NXN and/or FLN)