Monday, September 26, 2016

Northwest Girls Outlook - post Sep. 24 weekend

Now that the biggest weekend in the Northwest season is in the books (Bob Firman, Mountain West and Nike Portland all on the same weekend and among the bigger/better meets of the season), it is probably a good time to start taking a look at how teams might compare to one another. I'll keep this post very simple, as I haven't finished looking at how all the meets compare yet - might update this post at some point, I don't know. However, I will at least post this much to get the rough conversation started.

What teams were the fastest at the major NW meets this weekend?

Here are the ROUGH estimates I have so far for the meets:

14:24.31 Mountain West MT
14:44.46 Nike Portland OR
15:09.44 Bob Firman ID
14:20ish? Meriwether OR
14:45ish? Bellevue WA
15:45ish? Roy Griak MN (out of region, but important for NW girls w/ Mountain View ID)

which would give the following breakdown (NW teams in bold, team averages adjusted to Bob Firman as the standard) -

Tier 1.5: Jackson Hole WY (18:50.48 @ Bob Firman ID), American Fork UT (18:53.32 @ Bob Firman ID)

Tier 2.0: Jesuit OR (18:58.00 @ Bob Firman ID), Davis UT (18:58.02 @ Bob Firman ID), Bozeman MT (18:59.43 // 18:02.88 @ Mountain West MT), Edina MN (19:04.55 // 19:49.30 @ Roy Griak MN)

Tier 2.5: Mountain View ID (19:13.05 // 19:58.14 @ Roy Griak MN), Skyline UT (19:16.20 @ Bob Firman ID), Naperville North IL (19:16.69 // 20:05.04 @ Roy Griak MN)

Tier 3.0: Skyridge UT (19:27.02 @ Bob Firman ID), Sunset OR (19:28.12 // 18:56.04 @ Nike Portland OR), Claremont CA (19:29.36 // 20:15.08 @ Roy Griak MN), Eagle ID (19:29.98 @ Bob Firman ID), Springville UT (19:31.62 @ Bob Firman ID), Pine View UT (19:32.70 @ Bob Firman ID)

Tier 3.5: Billings Senior MT (19:34.85 // 18:36.55 @ Mountain West MT), Timpanogos UT (19:36.62 // 19:04.30 @ Nike Portland OR), Boise ID (19:41.82 @ Bob Firman ID), Johnston IA (19:43.29 // 20:29.56 @ Roy Griak MN), Wayzata MN (19:45.56 // 20:31.92 @ Roy Griak MN), Glacier Peak WA (19:46.71 // 19:14.82 @ Bellevue WA), Weber UT (19:46.80 @ Bob Firman ID), Riverton UT (19:48.54 @ Bob Firman ID), Minneapolis Washburn (19:49.39 // 20:35.90 @ Roy Griak MN), Summit OR (19:49.47 // 19:16.80 @ Nike Portland OR), Madison ID (19:50.52 @ Bob Firman ID), Missoula Hellgate MT (19:50.68 // 18:51.60 @ Mountain West MT), Sheldon OR (19:51.02 // 19:18.31 @ Nike Portland OR), Sioux Falls Lincoln SD (19:51.34 // 20:37.92 @ Roy Griak MN)

"Tier 1.5" are teams that could probably be US Top-10 (if they don't have an excessive spread)
"Tier 2.0" are teams that could probably be US Top-15 (if they don't have an excessive spread)
"Tier 2.5" are teams that could probably be US Top-35 (if they don't have an excessive spread)
"Tier 3.0" are teams that could probably be US Top-50 (if they don't have an excessive spread)
"Tier 3.5" are teams that could probably be NW Top-10 with good races at NXN-NW (if they don't have an excessive spread)

note that just because a team made the cut for a higher tier doesn't mean they are a better team - team average is just one measure, and one race on one day does not define how good a team is this season.

Also, for what it's worth... if I were to come up with a NW Top-5 rankings, I would probably have something along the lines of:

1. Jesuit OR = Won Bill Chapman OR; Won Bob Firman ID
2. Bozeman MT = Won Bozeman MT; Won Great Falls MT; Won Mountain West MT
3. Mountain View ID = Won Jimmy Driscoll ID (s/h); Won Tiger/Grizz ID; Second at Roy Griak MN
4. Jackson Hole WY = Won Bear Trap WY (s/h); Second BYU UT; Won Liberty Bell CO; Fourth Bob Firman ID
5. Lewis & Clark WA = Won Highlander WA

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