A few notes on the boys side:
-Flower Mound TX was without their #1, Alex Maier... adding him in as a Top-3 scorer (which seems conservative) would drop their score down to about 310 and in the Top 15.
-Arizona State's ratings are suspect, because of the combination of heat in Arizona and the lack of many athletes competing at NXR to get a good gauge.
-Wayzata's pack ran much better at their state meet than they did at NXR... I would hazard a guess that is because they were running more conservatively as a pack at NXR and not going all-out.
-Corning also look much stronger here (using their Public State race).
-Mountain Vista doesn't look nearly as strong here, which is not a surprise: they very clearly were peaking for NXR and NXN, and ran by far their best race of the season at NXR.
-For California teams, as always, the "State Championship" is their Section Finals.
Boys NXN Projections based on State Championship performance ONLY:
- 140 - Springville UT - 189.4
- 162 - Loudoun Valley VA - 186.4
- 171 - Wayzata MN - 185.1
- 175 - Downers Grove North IL - 184.0
- 182 - Corning NY - 184.9
- 213 - Great Oak CA - 183.2
- 213 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 184.0
- 217 - Desert Vista AZ - 182.7
- 230 - Mountain Vista CO - 183.0
- 243 - Southlake Carroll TX - 181.8
- 274 - Kamiakin WA - 181.3
- 276 - St. Francis (Mountain View) CA - 181.0
- 276 - Central Valley WA - 181.2
- 291 - Eleanor Roosevelt CA - 180.8
- 334 - Timpanogos UT - 179.0
- 385 - Middleton WI - 176.6
- 395 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ - 176.9
- 401 - Carmel IN - 176.9
- 413 - The Bolles School FL - 176.6
- 445 - Lewisville Flower Mound TX - 175.1
- 503 - Green Hope NC - 172.9
- 507 - Xavier CT - 172.9
Some notes on the girls side:
-While most girls teams stepped up at NXR (perhaps because of a greater difference in competition than the boys see going from State to NXR), there are some notable differences, most importantly: Great Oak CA, Keller TX, Jesuit OR and Saratoga Springs NY.
-I used the NY Section 3 race for both Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool (Public State was snow-covered and probably muddy... ratings more questionable, and Liverpool didn't qualify as a team). For Saratoga, I used the NY Federations (which was their best race of the year).
-Between this, and the NXR results, I think one thing becomes obvious (if it wasn't already): After FM, there are a TON of girls teams that could end up on the podium, none seeming to have a significant edge over the others. Keller TX and Great Oak CA were terrific all year long, but didn't look as strong at NXR. Bozeman came on very strong at the end of the year to make their NXN push. Naperville North, Wayzata, Jesuit, all three Colorado teams all look like they can make a run for the podium as well. Add in Southlake Carroll, Yorkville, Edina and Buchanan if they can duplicate their NXR performance, and that is 13 teams that are, IMO, very much in the thick of it for a spot on the podium... great depth, and should make for a great race!
Girls NXN Projections based on State Championship performance ONLY:
Girls NXN Projections based on State Championship performance ONLY:
- 67 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY - 144.4
- 175 - Great Oak CA - 135.3
- 177 - Keller TX - 134.5
- 179 - Bozeman MT - 133.8
- 199 - Jesuit OR - 133.4
- 203 - Wayzata MN - 131.3
- 217 - Mountain Vista CO - 132.3
- 221 - Naperville North IL - 132.2
- 255 - Battle Mountain CO - 127.8
- 266 - Edina MN - 126.9
- 268 - Broomfield CO - 126.4
- 287 - Yorkville IL - 126.9
- 311 - Claremont CA - 124.1
- 351 - Southlake Carroll TX - 121.3
- 355 - Buchanan CA - 124.3
- 392 - Liverpool NY - 121.7
- 396 - Saratoga Springs NY - 122.9
- 402 - Blacksburg VA - 119.1
- 446 - Cardinal Gibbons NC - 116.1
- 454 - North Hunterdon NJ - 115.7
- 483 - DuPont Manual KY - 114.8
- 546 - Kingsway Regional NJ - 110.8
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